#1 thing HOLDING BITCOIN BACK *ENDS* in 137 days

The number one thing that is holding Bitcoin back right now ends in 137 days. So what is it that ends in 130 days that will f suddenly clear the way finally for Bitcoin's price to do something? And that is the belief in a 4-year cycle that requires a one-year time period from a peak to a trough. So, Bitcoin historically has the price has sort of oscillated on its way up. Always on its way up up up, but it's essentially gone way up over three years, taken a breather for a year, then gone way up over three years, taken a breather for a year, gone way up over three years, taken a breather for a year. It's called the Bitcoin four-year cycle. There's a lot of hypotheses about why Bitcoin could have a four-year cycle from it's a triggered by the four-year having. It's t uh you know with the PMI of the um manufacturers index. It's global liquidity. It's human psychological behavior. It's uh the Gartner hype cycle. Regardless, it is true historically that Bitcoin has more or less, you know, followed a four-year cycle. And I've talked a lot about that in a lot of videos in a lot of different times. I've recommended the book um by VJ Boyati, The Bullish case for Bitcoin. Uh it's on Audible book and uh audio and everything else. The bullish case for Bitcoin uh which talks through the Gartner hype cycle and the four-year having and all that sort of stuff. Okay. Now, Bitcoin is mature enough and it's big enough and the Bitcoin having is small enough that the four-year cycle should not be a thing anymore. The problem is there are too many morons who think it is a thing. And if enough people think that something might be a thing, they can make it a thing by their behavior. And so if you go on Twitter right now and follow a bunch of different people that are all up in the world of Bitcoin and crypto and all of that, a big chunk of them believe that the four-year cycle is still intact. They think that the October 6 high means that the low for the cycle will be October 6, a year later or in the ballpark. And they think that May 22nd is too soon. So, they don't think that the low of this cycle was back on February 5 at $60,000. They think the low is yet to happen and that they are going to outsmart Bitcoin by being geniuses who buy Bitcoin at the actual real low, which they predict will happen sometime closer to October 6. That doesn't mean it'll be o exactly October 6. It just means it'll be somewhere closer to October 6 because they don't believe that Bitcoin is mature enough or big enough that the four-year cycle could be over. Now, if the four-year cycle is over, which I believe it is, and Michael Sailor believes it is, and most people that have a lot of Bitcoin think it is, then it makes sense that in this cycle of time, that the low for Bitcoin would be a lot shallower than in the in the past. A draw down of 52%, which is from 126,000 down to 60,000 was a 52% draw down. And that so not only would that draw down be smaller than historical uh by a percentage basis but also that it would be shorter on a time period in this case four months. It was four months from October 6 to November, December, January, February. So four months from October 6 to February 5th basically exactly four months. Now that makes perfect sense to me because we have Bitcoin ETFs. We have Micro Strategy or now called Strategy buying up ridiculous amounts of Bitcoin. We've got, you know, institutional buyers buyers. We've got, you know, Harvard University endowment. We've got Middle Eastern countries. We've got sovereign nations. We have a bunch of buyers we didn't have back in 2014, 2018 or 2022. Bitcoin is a radically more mature asset in today's terms in by by all measures. So James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, would say, "Yeah, there's a greater than 80% chance that the bottom was in at $60,000." Michael Sailor would say the bottom was in February 5th, $60,000. All of that, everybody would agree. The only people that would not agree are the people that are attached to and addicted to this four fouryear cycle hypothesis and all think they're going to outsmart Bitcoin and outsmart everybody else by waiting to buy back into Bitcoin later this year. One second. Now, my hypothesis is that all those people are going to lose out. It's going to become clear that the four-year cycle is over. It's going to become clear that they missed out. The price is going to grind higher and ultimately they will decide that we're not going back to 60,000. The four-year cycle is over and that they better pile in now or they're going to miss a huge amount of the upside. That is my prediction. But that has not fully happened yet. Some of the people have realized that at price of7 uh $76,000 $77,000. Some of those people have realized, hey, I missed the bottom. I better back get back in now. But a lot of people are still thinking, but it's only, you know, May 22nd. I've got time. It's only May. It's only June. It's only July. I got time. I can still get back in. It'll still come back down. I'm going to still buy cheap. I think they're wrong. I think they're going to miss out. So does Michael Sailor. So does James Czech. So does a lot of people that are way more informed than people predicting that stuff just happens based on a calendar. When does a financial asset care about your calendar? It doesn't. It behaves based on human behavior. But if enough humans are watching a 4-year calendar, they can sort of impose their will on it. Now, the good news is it ends in 137 days. October 6 of 2026 is 137 days from now. Zero people think that the bottom of this cycle is after October 6. So, all of the people holding on, waiting to buy it back in or buy more Bitcoin, are going to do it before or on October 6, which is 137 days from now, May 22nd. So, is there a chance that we have to wait through 137 days more of pain while these morons check days off of their calendar, pretending like Bitcoin, this global asset, is magically going to follow a four-year cycle? Maybe. Maybe we have to wait some period of that time. Maybe we have to wait just enough time that Bitcoin breaks above the low 80,000s and all those people realize they're getting left behind. We're not going to revisit 60,000. They need to, you know, throw their calendar away and buy back in or they're a I don't know. But the but the good news is 137 days is not that long. Um what is that? It's like five months or whatever it is. It's just not that long. Um so um or four four months and some whatever it is. That's not that long. We can wait. We can wait from the end of May until June, July, September, October. I It's just like, it's not that long. It'll be here before we know it. Um hopefully we don't have to wait that long. Hopefully February 5th was the bottom and everybody will figure that out. The price will run away and everybody will stop talking about the four-year cycle. But until then, we might grind with sideways a little longer while these people, you know, check days off their clock, pretending they're going to buy back in when the price is low and they don't want to buy back in at 76,000 because they think they're going to buy back in cheaper. If you look at the comments of all of my on all of my Facebook uh uh posts, that's what you'll see. You'll see all these people calling for prices below 60,000, saying they're waiting for the four-year cycle, blah blah blah. So, 137 days, maybe we have to wait it, maybe we don't. Thankfully, 137 days is only barely more than four months. Um, we'll probably only have to wait some of that before people realize that they were wrong. And regardless, on October 6 or before, all of these four-year cycle people are going to, you know, fully admit that, you know, even if we're still on a four-year cycle, it doesn't run past October 6, meaning they're going to have to get back on the train. And when everybody gets back on the train, prices go up, which is what always happens. And historically all these four-ear cycle people, the reason they're waiting is because they know the three years after that one year is fantastic euphoric prices. And so they understand that that means if their prediction is right that they get three solid years in a row of amazing returns if they just wait. But I think they're wrong. I think they're right about three years of amazing returns. I think they're wrong about waiting till October 6th um or closer to it. So, 137 days to go. I might start counting down those days uh just because these four-year cycers are, you know, the number one thing holding us back right now, you know, but so what? Um at some point, we'll leave them all behind if we haven't already and you know, Bitcoin will do its thing and then you get to enjoy three years post bare market and prices way higher than we've ever seen before, which is, you know, what past history would predict. So, uh, anyway, maybe we wait 137 days, maybe it's a lot shorter, maybe we already hit high likelihood more than 80% chance we already hit the low on February 5th and we're just going to grind higher and everybody who's already, you know, fully bought into Bitcoin or as much as they can afford, you know, just gets to benefit as we just grind higher. But who knows? It's human psychology and the need of good money and global politics and global liquidity and the PMI index and all this other stuff. Uh, so, um, have a good one. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. I think the four-year cycle ended a long time ago. I think February 5th at 60,000 was the bottom. I think everybody else who waits to buy back in lower in the future is going to miss out. Only time will tell. Thankfully, we only have 137 days we got to deal with. Have a good one everyone.