A Few Thoughts on Volatility

00:02 hey everyone a few thoughts on bitcoin 00:04 from the last couple days um first off 00:06 it's been a wild ride the last 72 hours 00:09 it uh Bitcoin has set multiple all-time 00:12 highs about every other day for a week 00:14 or two now and including in the last 72 00:16 hours there was also a big price swing 00:18 from 72,000 or sorry 00:21 $74,000 up to um or down to like $66,000 00:25 or like an $8,000 price swing in a very 00:27 short period of time some of what's 00:29 happening there first of that is normal 00:31 with high volatility assets whether 00:33 that's Tesla stock or something like 00:35 that um but also uh a lot of people 00:37 anytime an asset is rising especially 00:39 quickly there are always some people who 00:41 try to uh use leverage to get extra 00:45 returns which frankly is stupid and 00:46 hopefully nobody watching this would 00:48 even consider using leverage to trade 00:51 anything first of all you should not be 00:52 trading Bitcoin in the first place 00:54 Bitcoin is not an asset that should be 00:56 traded it should be bought and held or 00:58 at most uh spent with the coinbase debit 01:01 card but it should not be traded because 01:03 you're absolutely going to lose if you 01:04 try to do that but of course there are 01:07 the always people that uh think they can 01:09 outsmart the market and they trade with 01:11 leverage and leverage means trading not 01:13 only with their own funds what but with 01:15 borrowed funds well when you do that um 01:17 you get higher returns if you guess 01:19 right you also get much lower returns if 01:22 you guess wrong so for example if you're 01:24 trading with 10 times leverage and you 01:26 guess right and you're you know betting 01:28 that it's going to go up then if if it 01:30 goes up 10% you make a 100% return but 01:33 if it goes down 10% you lose all of your 01:35 money uh conversely if you are betting 01:38 with 10 times leverage that it's going 01:40 to go down and it instead of going down 01:43 by 10% and making you know you you know 01:45 10 times your money instead it goes up 01:48 10% well then you lose all of your money 01:50 so one of the things that makes uh High 01:52 volatility assets like Bitcoin go up and 01:55 down more is people trading with 01:57 leverage and that's just you know part 01:58 of what they do um thankfully you know 02:01 Bitcoin humbles everyone as I've always 02:03 said unless you just buy it and hold on 02:05 to it as I've always advocated it 02:07 humbles everybody so what always happens 02:09 is when there's a big run up like the 02:11 run up to 02:12 $74,000 some people think they're going 02:14 to get too smart and they start trading 02:16 with leverage and they get wiped 02:18 absolutely just wiped out and liquidated 02:20 when Bitcoin takes a you know5 to $8,000 02:23 price dip in uh 24 hours and then 02:26 conversely when it starts going down and 02:28 everybody bets it's going to keep going 02:29 down they get absolutely wiped out when 02:32 it starts going back up so as I'm 02:33 recording this Bitcoin is about $70,000 02:36 per coin uh again it was about 74 then 02:39 it dropped to about 66 now it's about 70 02:42 about at the midpoint I would guess it 02:43 just keeps going up who knows uh what 02:46 matters is the medium and long term not 02:48 the shortterm um but anyway all of those 02:50 leverage Traders are getting absolutely 02:51 wiped out every time that happens which 02:53 is good for people like us because it 02:55 means the crazy people that are doing 02:58 wonky trading strategies are getting 03:00 wiped out and not those are not the 03:02 people who should be owning Bitcoin 03:03 anyway the people who should be owning 03:04 Bitcoin are not the people who are 03:06 trying to trade it but the people who 03:08 are holding on to it because it is the 03:10 future monetary system of the world um 03:12 in addition to this video I posted a 03:14 couple links to x uh there was a guy 03:16 explaining why um assets that are going 03:20 up as fast as Bitcoin uh has been going 03:22 up are always volatile uh they are it's 03:25 the nature of it is you can't have an 03:28 asset that has a CA gr a compound annual 03:31 growth rate averaging 140% it is 03:34 impossible to have an asset that is 03:35 growing an average of 140% per year 03:39 without extremely high volatility the 03:40 two always go together you never have an 03:43 extremely high growth asset that is also 03:46 not also very very uh High volatility so 03:50 uh Bitcoin is volatile it will continue 03:51 to be volatile as I posted a few minutes 03:54 ago all you have to do is zoom out and 03:56 you can get some perspective that you 03:58 know it's hilarious that when you look 03:60 at a a 10% price correction in 24 hours 04:04 when you zoom out you realize oh that's 04:05 like a tiny little blip on the radar as 04:08 compared to the massive uh price 04:10 appreciation over the last uh you know 04:12 12 to 18 months so anyway my prediction 04:15 certainly here is that things keep going 04:16 up I think at least for the next 04:19 probably 18 months at any given time 04:21 there will be an an a 80 to 90% 04:24 probability that things are just keep 04:26 going up and always a 10 to 20% 04:29 probability that things take a you know 04:31 some significant interm price dip so uh 04:34 that continues to be the case and for 04:36 those that have been in Bitcoin a long 04:38 time something like a 10% price 04:40 correction which obviously is $7,000 on 04:43 $70,000 um that looks like small 04:45 potatoes to those of us who have been 04:47 through a couple bare markets where the 04:49 price Corrections were much much larger 04:51 than that and even historically even in 04:53 Bull markets which mean up up markets uh 04:56 there's even been price Corrections 04:58 historically as big as 20 and 30% 05:00 so if 10% over the last 72 hours makes 05:03 your stomach churn just realize you know 05:05 that is not only is that normal but 05:08 historically the price Corrections have 05:09 been significantly larger than that on 05:11 the way up because it's uh bitcoin's uh 05:15 volatility has been much higher in the 05:17 past than it is now but it's still a 05:18 high volatility high growth asset so few 05:21 updates on that I still get questions 05:22 from people all the time of is now still 05:24 a good time to buy Bitcoin I still 05:26 believe a couple things one that the 05:28 probability that the you know there's 05:30 more upside in the near term let's say 05:32 even in the next days or weeks is always 05:35 you know probably 80 to 90% the 05:37 probability that you're going to 05:38 magically get a lower price by waiting 05:40 is always probably 10 or 20% and the 05:44 problem of course with waiting for a 05:45 price dip is you don't know what a price 05:47 dip is for for example in the last 72 05:50 hours I'm sure at 74,000 a coin people 05:53 were thinking I'll rate for a price dip 05:55 then it drips to 73 and they're like oh 05:57 it's going down I wonder if it'll go 05:58 down some more well then it you know 06:00 dips to 72 71 70 and they're like wow if 06:03 it's going you know dip this much I'll 06:05 bet it's going to dip a ton more and 06:07 then it dips more and they're like oh no 06:08 maybe something's wrong with Bitcoin and 06:10 so they ended up not buying and then or 06:12 they end up buying and you know as soon 06:14 as it gets to a full 10% or full 15% 06:16 price correction then I'm going to buy 06:18 and inevitably they never buy so um in 06:21 the future neither you nor anyone else 06:24 will care what you almost did and the 06:27 Bitcoin you almost bought and how close 06:29 you almost got to buying Bitcoin at 06:32 today's prices all that will matter is 06:34 whether you actually pulled the trigger 06:36 or did not pull the trigger and if you 06:38 didn't pull the trigger well then you 06:39 don't benefit um you know you're not 06:42 along for the ride so anyway I continue 06:44 to tell everybody who asks yes I think 06:46 now is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin I 06:48 don't see anything that will change that 06:51 and at any given time anytime somebody 06:52 says well should I wait a day or should 06:54 I watch it for a day or two or should I 06:57 you know maybe we waake wait a week or 06:58 two and see what happens I'm like you 07:00 can but there's an 80 to 90% chance 07:03 you're going to miss out on significant 07:05 upside and there's a 10 to 20% chance 07:08 you might buy it cheaper and you're 07:10 probably not going to buy it cheaper 07:11 because if it does get cheaper you're 07:13 probably going to freak out and think 07:14 maybe something's wrong and you're going 07:16 to not buy it when it's cheaper anyway 07:18 because you're going to be sitting there 07:19 waiting for it to get cheaper than cheap 07:21 so everybody who thinks they're going to 07:22 buy Bitcoin when it's cheaper inevitably 07:24 when it does get cheaper they think they 07:26 need to wait till it's even cheaper and 07:28 then when it starts going back up then 07:30 they feel like they missed the cheapest 07:32 of the cheap and then they don't want to 07:33 buy it because they want to wait for 07:34 another price dip and it just they just 07:36 never buy these people just never buy um 07:39 so anyway that's a few highlights um 07:41 with regard to bitcoin there was one 07:43 other thing I was going to cover that I 07:46 am not immediately remembering um but if 07:48 I do remember it I'll go live again but 07:51 that is uh a few thoughts from tonight 07:53 on bitcoin uh price Corrections 07:56 highlights and um and a few other things 07:59 so happy answer any questions anyone has 08:01 happy to send anyone bit uh free Bitcoin 08:03 if they're in the mood to uh to start on 08:05 the Bitcoin journey and happy to answer 08:07 any questions in the comments or 08:09 anything else uh anyone has so I'm 08:11 always here to serve extremely bullish 08:13 on bitcoin I think it's the future 08:15 monetary system of the world I really 08:17 don't think I really don't see anything 08:18 that would change that and um anyway and 08:21 I think it's just uh it's a whole lot of 08:23 up from here even though there will be 08:25 price Corrections along the way so just 08:27 halfway I here to serve if there's 08:29 anything I can do thanks