Are Quantum Computers a Threat to Bitcoin?

00:01 hey everyone are quantum computers a 00:04 threat to Bitcoin let's talk about that 00:06 as a handful of people have sent me 00:08 different articles Uh what triggered 00:09 this was that Google has a quantum 00:12 computer called Willow and they uh just 00:15 released that it you know their quantum 00:16 computer did some cool new stuff that 00:18 other quantum computers haven't done yet 00:20 And they're using it as proof that hey 00:22 maybe quantum computers are right around 00:24 the corner So a couple thoughts One 00:26 quantum computers that could actually 00:28 crypt uh actually crack cryptography or 00:32 security systems that are currently in 00:34 use are decades into the future Minimum 00:36 10 years probably more like 20 Uh people 00:39 have been talking about quantum 00:40 computers since the 1990s Here we are in 00:43 2024 We're still a very long way away So 00:46 one the everyone agrees that the threat 00:48 from quantum computers is a decade plus 00:52 away probably multi-deade pluses away Uh 00:55 second if quantum computers start 00:58 cracking encryption technology Bitcoin 01:01 will be the least of your concerns Um 01:03 because they're going to crack 01:04 everything else first So long before 01:06 Bitcoin has a problem your bank accounts 01:09 your websites all of the secure 01:10 communication on the internet that is 01:12 going to get cracked and unencrypted 01:14 long before uh Bitcoin has a problem 01:16 just due to the nature of how difficult 01:18 it is to crack that sort of thing as 01:20 opposed to Bitcoin Um third Bitcoin has 01:23 the best software developers in the 01:24 entire world working on it Literally the 01:27 best developers the most capable 01:29 cryptographers the most competent people 01:32 with cryptography mathematics uh I mean 01:35 those people the best of the best of the 01:37 best work on Bitcoin because Bitcoin is 01:39 the coolest thing There's nothing else 01:41 you can work on that is protecting $2 01:43 trillion of value with your cryptography 01:46 skills than Bitcoin So therefore Bitcoin 01:48 attracts all of the most competent good 01:51 guys because there's the most at stake 01:53 So Bitcoin has the most uh competent 01:56 developer network of of literally 01:58 anything on the in the on the planet 02:00 which means Bitcoin if there is an 02:03 actual threat from quantum computers to 02:06 the cryptography of Bitcoin Bitcoin is 02:08 going to get upgraded long before 02:11 anything else gets upgraded It's going 02:13 to take way longer to adopt for regular 02:16 old banks including community banks and 02:18 that sort of thing to upgrade their 02:20 websites and their login portals and 02:22 their um mobile applications That 02:25 process is just you know it's like the 02:28 com or sorry the year 2 Y2K bug you know 02:32 if if you had a central system like 02:33 Bitcoin it's a lot easier to patch that 02:36 uh for the Y2K bug than it is every tiny 02:39 little system running airlines and ATMs 02:42 and all of that sort of stuff So in 02:44 addition to that people uh talk about 02:46 the early uh Bitcoin that was mined by 02:49 Satoshi Nakamoto himself to get the mark 02:51 the uh the uh the network running They 02:55 act like it's all in one one wallet 02:57 where you know somebody could hack it It 02:59 spread across 22,000 wallets So um every 03:04 time Satoshi Nakamoto mined a block 03:07 which was 50 Bitcoin back then it went 03:09 to a different address on the Bitcoin 03:11 blockchain So they act like it's this 03:13 honeypot with a bunch of Bitcoin in it 03:15 and the moment somebody cracks it they 03:17 can have all that Bitcoin No it's 22,000 03:20 honeypotss and every one you crack you 03:23 get 50 Bitcoin um which obviously 03:26 doesn't add up if you crack a lot of 03:27 them But again the entire network could 03:29 be upgraded uh to uh quantum proof and 03:33 quantum compatible uh cryptography long 03:36 before it actually becomes a problem 03:39 People talk about the difficulty of 03:41 upgrading the Bitcoin network It's not 03:43 difficult to upgrade the the Bitcoin 03:45 network as long as there's consensus 03:46 that it needs to be done Uh the reason 03:49 there's been a lot of you know changes 03:51 have not happened on the Bitcoin network 03:53 was a large percent of the network did 03:56 not agree that the change was necessary 03:58 Therefore there's lots of people 03:60 complaining that their new wind feature 04:02 that did this or that never made it into 04:05 the core Bitcoin code that runs in the 04:08 answer is well because people didn't 04:09 think it was worth it They didn't think 04:11 the riskreward of introducing new code 04:14 with new features was worth it Um so 04:17 they didn't bother because they didn't 04:18 think it was worth it If quantum 04:20 computing is actually a threat then 04:23 that's going to be something that there 04:24 is it's very easy to get agreement on 04:27 and therefore Bitcoin will be upgraded 04:29 accordingly Um so am I worried about the 04:32 quantum computing threat no People have 04:35 been dreaming up things to be worried 04:36 about from the beginning of time 04:38 Everybody that gets quoted in these 04:40 articles has an incentive to play up how 04:42 big a threat it is Nobody Nobody wants 04:45 to be Nobody wants to say what I say 04:47 which is hey it's a threat That's a long 04:50 way in the future It will probably never 04:52 materialize If it ever materializes 04:54 really good software developers are 04:56 going to fix it long before it becomes a 04:58 problem Nobody That doesn't make a good 04:60 sound bite That doesn't scare anybody 05:02 That does not meet the criteria of if it 05:04 bleeds it leads which is what news runs 05:07 on Which means every story you're going 05:09 to see about Bitcoin and quantum 05:11 computers is going to be "Oh no the sky 05:14 is falling Something bad might happen." 05:16 And then they'll quote people who are in 05:18 the industry who of either quantum 05:20 computers saying it's right around the 05:21 corner or people who are trying to sell 05:25 products and services to make stuff 05:26 quantum resistant which of course are 05:28 also going to say the threat is right 05:30 around the corner So coming from someone 05:33 who has you know 97% of their liquid net 05:36 worth in Bitcoin I'm telling you the 05:38 threat is not imminent will probably 05:42 never materialize And if it starts to 05:44 materialize Bitcoin will be upgraded far 05:46 before anything else gets upgraded And 05:49 the stuff that's going to end up getting 05:50 hacked is the the millions of 05:53 technological systems that are old that 05:56 nobody's really paying attention to 05:57 nowadays And you know they don't have 05:60 the world's best software developers 06:02 working on them all at the same time So 06:04 uh anyway like everything uh every every 06:08 news story involves the sky falling 06:10 massive change needed They're trying to 06:12 scare everybody because nobody reads 06:13 news that's not sensational And the 06:16 truth is there's not a threat right now 06:19 If there becomes one it'll be fixed more 06:21 than a decade before it's a real problem 06:23 And uh of all the things you should be 06:25 worried about Bitcoin is not one of them 06:28 Because everything else in your life is 06:30 going to get cracked and hacked by 06:32 quantum computers long before Bitcoin 06:35 has that problem Because all the other 06:38 things in your life that rely on 06:39 cryptography including all your bank 06:41 accounts and your retirement funds and 06:44 all that sort of stuff that stuff I 06:46 promise you does not have the very best 06:49 software developers in the entire world 06:51 working on it every single day the way 06:53 Bitcoin does So short take is don't 06:56 worry about it Accumulate as much 06:57 Bitcoin as you can It's not a threat you 06:60 need to worry about now And if it ever 07:02 becomes one it'll be fixed more than a 07:03 decade before 07:06 matters So Bitcoin's in a great spot 07:08 That's not going to change Thanks 07:09 everyone