BINGO! Bitcoin’s price in 2025 now makes sense!

Bingo. 2025 now makes perfect sense. I have been struggling to understand Bitcoin's price performance in 2025 and something about it just did not seem right. So, finally laying in bed uh the other night, it all became clear. It all made sense. And the very next morning, I started asking chat GBT and Grock various questions about the Bitcoin price in 2023, 2024, and 2025. and all of it became clear. So, here is what I'm talking about. There's a lot if you are on, you know, Bitcoin Twitter and uh, you know, Bitcoin X, whatever you want to call it. Um, you know, everybody's lamenting that Bitcoin didn't do what they wanted in 2025 and, you know, it was down 6% for the year and all that sort of stuff. And there's just like all of these people, you know, licking their wounds and complaining and all this sort of stuff. And I'm thinking something does not feel right. I bought Bitcoin all the way through 2024. I bought Bitcoin all the way through 2025. I spent Bitcoin in 2025 that I bought in 2024 and 2023. And my feeling was it felt like the prices in 2025 were 50% higher than the prices in 2024 because I remember 2024 and I remember 2025. So, uh, a couple of things are true um that are all sort of they all make sense when you all look at them. Okay. Okay. So, the first is to understand 2023 was a huge up year for Bitcoin. Everyone agrees. 2024 was a huge up year for Bitcoin. Everyone agrees. Bitcoin more than doubled each of those two years. Which means if you bought Bitcoin at the beginning of 2023, uh, and at the end of 2022, all of which I was doing, you quadrupled your money in just 2023 and 2024 because it doubled once in 23, more than doubled, and then it more than doubled again in 2024. Okay. But then 2025 as a year as a whole was down 6%. Okay, but I thought, you know what, that's only measuring from January 1st to December 31st. But what percent of all of the people in Bitcoin bought Bitcoin only on January 1st and then spent it all on December 31st and therefore we're down 6%. And the answer is almost zero because the average person who buys Bitcoin is not buying it all on one day. They're buying it at various points throughout the year or a series of years. And if you're spending Bitcoin, you're not spending it all on one day. You're spending it here and there as you need it throughout the year. So I thought, okay, what I need to do is figure out what was the average price in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The average price is a lot more reflective of the actual lived experience of a Bitcoiner because if you bought Bitcoin, you bought it probably around the average price in those years. Uh now again some people bought above some people bought below but in each of those three years Bitcoin spent the majority of the year within 10% of its average price for the year. Meaning for the majority of the year whatever the average price of the of Bitcoin was for that year. It was within 10% above and 10% below for the majority of that year. So I got chat GBT and Grock. I ran it both ways just to make sure they got the same data and they did. Uh, Grock has its own uh, Bitcoin price charts and so you don't have to upload your own. But I also on chat GBT I uploaded the entire history of Bitcoin prices um, from investing.com which has the most comprehensive long look back and they both gave me the same answers which uh, which is in 2023 the average price was about $29,000. In 2024 the average price was about $66,000. And here's the big one. In 2025 the average price was about $101,000. Now, what you realize when you run those averages is that Bitcoin was up 129% in 2024 from 2023 and it was up an additional 54% in 2025 compared to 2024. Now, that makes perfect sense because if you remember, I did a whole series of videos where I said, you know, the price had, you know, the the average price that Bitcoin had hung around as in it was within 10 or 10% was 64,000. Well, the actual average price for the whole year was 66, which is basically the same. Uh, same in 2023. So ultimately the lived experience of a Bitcoiner is the average price. I bought Bitcoin in 2024 was around $66,000 because I was buying some below that. I was in early in the year I was buying some above that later in the year and I was buying dips along the way and I was doing all that. So when I have spent Bitcoin in 2025 since I live exclusively on Bitcoin, my perception was it feels like everything is 33% off. Like that's just what it feels like. It feels like I am living 2025 at a 33% discount. So when I ran all the numbers and realized the average price in 2025 was 54% higher than the average price in 2020 uh 4, it all made sense. I was like bingo. Because if the price is 50% higher, then that means mathematically everything is 33% off. Those two numbers obviously go together. if you uh if you have an asset that's up 50% and you spend it, that 50% gain is the equivalent of 33% off anything you buy. So I was like, perfect. It all makes sense now. So the question is, was 2025 a year that sucked because the price was down 6%. Well, technically, yes, if all of your Bitcoin was bought on January 1st and sold on December 31st, but mainly that's because the price had a huge spike in 2024. So the average price of Bitcoin in 2024 was 66,000, but the price ran up past 90,000 in the last weeks of the year. So 2025 started out with an artificially high hurdle it had to clear coming off the very end of 2024. So even though the majority of 2024 was around 66,000, right at the end of 2024, it spiked to above 90,000. Which means even though the average price in 2025 was 101, the price dipped into the 80s right at the end of the year. So obviously if you measure calendar years from beginning to end, the spike in 2024 and the dip in 2025 result in it feeling like it the year was down 6%. when the actual lived experience was take any random day in 2024 compared to any random day in 2025. Any random day in 2025, there's an 88% chance that the price was higher than in 2024. Again, any random day in 2025, there's an 88% chance that those days were higher than in 2024. Uh you flip that around and say, well, what percent of the days in 2025 were below the average price of 2024? And the answer is zero. There is not a single day in 2025 where the price of Bitcoin dropped below the average price of 2024. It's just that at the very end of 2024, we didn't have an average price of Bitcoin in 2024. We had a very late year spike and then that was offset um or I guess mirrored in 2025 when we had a very late in the year dip. Meaning even though the average price for the year was 101, the uh end of year was like 87 or something like that. So, it went from, I don't know, pick a number, whatever it was, it was 93,000 at the beginning of the year to 87 at the end. It's like, yeah, but it spent most of the year above 101. Uh, and again, if you just measure calendar years and math that. So, as soon as I understood all that, I was like, that makes perfect sense. the uh 2025 was actually a much better year than the math makes it look like if you just look at January 1st and December 31st, but most people did not buy or sell all their Bitcoin on just two of the 365 days of the year. They sold and bought all throughout the year. And if you did that, you were up 54% between 2024 and 2025. So bottom line, 2025 was a strong year for Bitcoin. Was it a blowout year? No, it wasn't a blowout year because Bitcoin more than doubled in 23 and 24, but 54% average price growth uh in 2025 is pretty dang amazing. Like that's a epic price uplift. And now we're here in 2026 and Bitcoin is a bit of a wound up spring. There's a lot of upside that is in Bitcoin. gold and silver have gone on these epic price runs and a lot of that capital will eventually rotate into Bitcoin. Um, historically that's the way it's worked. You know, when people become uncertain about the world, first they buy the asset that's been around 5,000 years, which is gold, and then eventually they do the research and realize Bitcoin's better and rotate capital over from gold and silver over to Bitcoin. Uh, I anticipate that will happen again. That's what's happened historically and uh but time will tell. Uh I continue to think now is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin and uh if you understand that the better way to look at the last three years is the average price throughout the year rather than just what the price happened to be on January 1st or December 31st. It lets you zoom out and really understand that 2025 was a year that really was up 54%. And if you were spending Bitcoin you bought the year before, you are buying everything at a 33% discount, which is pretty amazing. I think the same will be of uh will be true of 2026. Obviously, it's off to a slow start in the first 3 weeks with the price down in the high 80s to low 90s, but again, that's all temporary. We're patient. We're investors. We're not get rich with rich uh quick people. We're investors here. And it's all about patience. And patience is rewarded, especially in Bitcoin. So now's a great time to buy Bitcoin. Zoom out, look at average prices rather than just beginning and end of year prices, and you'll get a whole lot better perspective on all of