Bitcoin around $90,000: What it means (and what it doesn’t)

Here are my quick thoughts on Bitcoin at $89,000. So, I read James Czech's updates every uh twice a week when he sends them. Uh he thinks uh the sort of the bottoming out of Bitcoin is around the $82,000 mark, which we've already dipped below one time. He generally thinks bottoms are hammered out, not just touched and away you go. But again, nobody knows. I mean, at 126,000, James Czech also said none of the indicators that had indicated past tops had triggered, meaning he did not believe 126 was a top. So, who knows? Um, I think the same advice goes for that I give people as always, which is don't try to time the bottom. Don't try to time the market at all. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. If you uh listen to James Czech's updates, he does video updates as well as written updates. If you listen or read, he says, "Look, it could go lower, but we don't know. We don't know the probabilities it will go lower. If it does go lower, we don't know the percent chance it will hit any specific level." Um, which is why you don't use leverage. Don't borrow against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin because then you have magic numbers that if it gets tripped, you get liquidated. And obviously, that's a bad position to put yourself in. So, um, anyway, I in my opinion 88,00088 $89,000 Bitcoin is fantastic price prices to buy Bitcoin. If I had any capital available to buy Bitcoin, I would buy it immediately at these prices. I would not wait for a cheaper price. I would not try to time the market. I would not do anything dumb. The people who try to time the market or wait for specific price levels, they always outsmart themselves. Uh, if you try to outsmart Bitcoin, Bitcoin will outsmart you. And it goes for any market. It doesn't matter if it's stocks or bonds or real estates, real estate or soybeans or oil or, you know, whatever you name it. Diamonds, gold, silver. If you're trying to time a market and you're trying to outsmart everybody else in the world by buying at a specific time or a specific price or using leverage, which means borrowed money, you're going to burn you're going to get burned. That's always the case. So, my advice is the same as always. Um, buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. The price could dip, but statistically waiting for a dip always puts the odds against you. That doesn't mean you can't get lucky and buy a dip that you were waiting for, but the probabilities are strongly against it. And my experience with everybody who tries to buy dips is one of two things happens. Either the dip that they are waiting for never arrives. So they say, "Okay, we almost touched $80,000. If we touch $80,000, I'll buy it." Or 75. And then the the dip never comes. or they say, "Okay, you know, the dip does come." And then they chicken out and they say, "Well, it touched $80,000, but the price is dropping so fast. Surely it's going to hit 75." And suddenly the price when they had committed themselves, if the price hit 80,000, which it has not yet, but if it does, they committed themselves that they're going to buy Bitcoin at that price. Then uh as soon as it drops, it drops so quickly that they're like, "Wow, it went straight through 80,000 to, you know, 7978." And now they say if it hits 75 I'll definitely buy. They're never going to buy. Yeah. Do not outsmart yourself. Do not trick yourself out of buying a bunch of Bitcoin. Do not wait for specific prices to buy Bitcoin. Do not try to time the bottom. In my opinion, it's a great price to buy Bitcoin. It's heavily discounted. In the long term, it won't make a lick of difference whether you bought Bitcoin at 89,000 or 82,000 or 78,000 or any other number. All of those prices are going to look ridiculously cheap in the long term. the gains will be, you know, huge regardless. And nobody back when Bitcoin was onetenth its current price. Nobody right now is saying they regretted buying Bitcoin at 8,900, which is exactly 10% of its, you know, onetenth its current price. Nobody says, "Wow, I regret buying at 8,900. I should have waited for 7,800 or 8,200." Everybody was who was buying Bitcoin back when I was back initially in 2017 and 2018 was doing exactly the same things people are doing now. They were all trying to guess prices. They were all trying to time the market. They were all claiming they were going to buy Bitcoin if it hit a certain price. And of course, they wouldn't. It either never hit the price or it did hit the price and they didn't actually buy it. Everybody was doing that, including me. I bought a lot of Bitcoin at $9,000 and I said, "If it ever hits $4,500, if it ever hits half the price I paid for most of my initial Bitcoin back then, I'm going to buy a bunch more." Well, guess what? It did hit that price and I did not pull the trigger because again, I did what everybody else does is I'm like, "Wow, if it's way down here at 4,500, there must be a good reason. Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe I don't know something. It's too scary down here to buy at 4,500. There's too much uncertainty. I'll just wait and see what happens." Well, of course, it bounced around below 4,500 for a, you know, plenty time enough. I could have bought it a million times over and then the price next time I'm checking is 20,000, 30,000, 40,000 and I'm like, well, I'm an idiot. I could be up 10x. But instead, I never pulled the trigger. So, don't play those games. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Today's a great price. Nobody knows if it's going to go lower. And statistically, if you look at every price dip Bitcoin's ever done, and then you say, "What is the probability it drops uh an additional percentage necessary to hit 80,000 or 75,000 or some other number?" The probability that it will do that is always lower than the probability it would have to be in order to be worth missing out on the upside. It's just not worth playing those games. And again, even if you say, "Okay, well, I'm going to try to buy Bitcoin at 75 or 80 or whatever number, but if it starts really tearing to the upside, you know, and it breezes past 95, then I'll buy at 95 anyway." There's no way you can get a statistical probability better than just buying now. There's no price below the current price that you can plan to buy Bitcoin. And there's no price above the current price that you can capitulate and buy it anyway. No matter what strategy you come up with, it is a strategy that involves you having a higher probability of losing than winning. Does not mean you can't get lucky, but it's statistically you have a greater probability of losing than winning. So don't play that game. If you can buy Bitcoin right now, buy it with whatever capital you have available to buy Bitcoin. If the price drops further and you decide you want to buy more Bitcoin at 70,000, you know, 75,000, 80,000, 80, 82,000, whatever magic number, you know, you shouldn't even have. Um, if you buy some now and then it drops more and you decide you want to buy more, that's great. But don't sit on capital you already know you're going to buy Bitcoin with waiting for a lower price than today. That is a losing strategy. Almost nobody wins with that strategy, including you. You think you're going to be the one lucky person that's going to pick a magic number and it's going to drop to that number. You're going to beautifully and elegantly execute your buy at exactly that price. You're going to be amazing. Blah blah blah. No, you're going to get burned like everybody else who tries to do that, which is basically everybody. They all get burned. Just don't play that game. learn from the mistakes of all of the rest of us that and just buy Bitcoin with whatever capital you can as much as you can and just sit on it for as long as conceivably possible. It is the the monetary elements of Bitcoin are sound. It is the future monetary system of the world. Uh adoption is slow. You know why adoption is slow? It's really hard for new people to understand Bitcoin. If you don't believe me, go try to explain to somebody who doesn't understand Bitcoin. Try to explain to them in a way that they will understand understand Bitcoin. The truth is it's really hard to get people to understand Bitcoin. And the world is slowly waking up. Hundreds of millions of people own Bitcoin. But billions do not. You know, of the 8 billion people in the world, more than 7.5 billion of them do not own any Bitcoin, and they don't understand it. They will, but it will take them time. Um, so during that time, you can buy Bitcoin cheap. As the rest of the world figures out what Bitcoin is, how it works, and its ability to be used as the future monetary system of the world and all the reasons it's superior, then the price will be much higher. And so if you understand Bitcoin now, you can buy Bitcoin while it's cheap. As other people understand Bitcoin later, they will adopt later in the adoption cycle and they will have to adopt Bitcoin when it's a lot more expensive. Um, so the best thing you can do right now is buy as much Bitcoin as you can, you know, regardless of the price and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It is a simple formula. It is straightforward. You can't lose that way if you are patient. And if you want to go if you want to keep track of blowby-blow exactly what's happening and the probability a price might hit this or that or whatever, the best resource is is James Czech. He his newsletter is check on chain. It's uh he re releases it uh typically twice, sometimes three times, but at least twice a week. And it's got a video update. It's got written update. And it costs $29 per month. Which again, even if you just want it, even if you're looking for a resource just to get you through this dip and you only subscribe for a month or two and then you unsubscribe as soon as the price is tearing higher. But even if it's tearing higher, you're going to switch and wanting to know instead of are we at the bottom, you're going to want to know are we at the top. But anyway, he's the best resource, but even he doesn't know. And he will tell you I he doesn't know. He can just give you a sense of probabilities, but that is it. So advice stays the same. Bitcoin is as sound, the fundamentals are as sound as ever. And uh my advice never changes. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. It's on sale now. You could try to wait for a cheaper price. You will get burned. Everyone does. Don't do that. Just buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It's a simple formula that always works.