Bitcoin info you need to know for the next three (3) months

00:01 Welcome to Bitcoin at $125,000 per coin. 00:04 Let's talk about what you need to know 00:06 for the next three months in the land of 00:08 Bitcoin. All right, first off, some 00:10 historical perspective. Historically, 00:12 back in 2013, 2017, and 2021, there 00:17 would be a peak of Bitcoin in the 00:21 October, November time frame, the year 00:23 following a presidential election. That 00:26 would be of course October of this year 00:29 or November next month of this year. The 00:32 difference was what caused that peak was 00:35 a massive price rise leading up to 00:39 October and November and you would get 00:41 what's called a blowoff top. A blowoff 00:44 top is when you get this huge 00:45 unsustainable rally uh driven by 00:48 speculative demand and then ultimately 00:51 the speculative demand is not 00:52 sustainable and so you get this 00:55 basically huge spike up and then the 00:57 price comes significantly back down and 00:60 then marches higher from there. Now the 01:02 thing that is different about 2025 is we 01:05 have not had a blowoff top. The price 01:08 has been grinding sideways and then up, 01:10 sideways and then up. sideways and and 01:12 then up. And everybody's bored to death 01:15 even though Bitcoin's up 600% in the 01:18 last 3 years. Uh people are just bored 01:20 out of their minds because they're used 01:22 to a Bitcoin that's just all over the 01:23 place all the time making people's, you 01:26 know, dopamine receptors uh respond 01:29 constantly to huge upsides and, you 01:32 know, epic downsides and all that. And 01:35 this cycle, we have not had that. It has 01:36 been sideward, sideways grind and then a 01:39 big jump up. Sideways grind, a big jump 01:42 up. Sideways grind and a big jump up. 01:44 And typically that sideways grind gives 01:48 the market an opportunity to digest the 01:51 big upward swing. So you have not had on 01:54 this cycle, you have not had these huge 01:56 price corrections uh because the market 01:58 instead the demand has been so strong 02:01 that instead of a big price correction, 02:03 you essentially just grind sideways. 02:05 when demand goes soft for a period of 02:07 time, uh rather than a price correction, 02:10 you end up having this uh sideways grind 02:13 that wears people out and scares people 02:15 out. So, uh the only two big dips so far 02:18 this year have been or not this year, 02:20 but in the last two years, there was a 02:22 dip in 2024 of about 33%. And then 02:26 another dip in 2025 earlier this year in 02:29 April of about 25%, sorry, 33%. So two 02:33 corrections of between 30% and 33%. Uh 02:37 one in August of 2024 which was uh 02:41 related to international I forget what 02:43 international incident happened. But 02:45 then the uh in April what's called the 02:47 tariff tantrum when everybody threw a 02:49 fit and started selling everything 02:50 because they were afraid the tariffs 02:53 were going to basically screw up the 02:54 whole economy. Uh so anyway, other than 02:56 those two 33% price corrections, it's 02:59 been a pretty modest um you know, 03:02 uninteresting ride up of 600% gains over 03:06 the last 3 years. So what's going to 03:09 happen over the next 3 months? Well, let 03:11 me paint the scenarios. The a low 03:13 probability scenario 03:15 is we enter a bare market from here. A 03:18 bare market means a significant, you 03:21 know, 30 40 50% draw down in the price. 03:24 I think that's very unlikely because we 03:27 have spent so much time grinding 03:28 sideways and so much time generally 03:31 between 100,000 and 125,000 that it does 03:34 not feel like the market needs a 03:36 correction because again the market has 03:39 had a lot of time to digest the current 03:41 price ranges. So it feels like that's a 03:44 low probability outcome. Um of course it 03:47 is likely in the next year or two we 03:49 will get a price correction of at least 03:51 20 or 30%. And you may be thinking, 03:54 well, I'll just wait and buy it on a 03:56 price correction. The problem is it is, 03:59 you know, likely that the price increase 04:02 that happens before the correction will 04:04 result in a price that if you have a 20% 04:08 correction, for example, will result in 04:10 a price being higher than it is now. So, 04:12 for example, if the price runs up to 04:15 $200,000 and you have a 20% price 04:18 correction, that means the price drops 04:20 to $160,000. 04:22 Well, if you're waiting at $125,000 04:25 for a price correction and you get a 04:26 price correction down to $160,000, well, 04:29 guess what? You're screwed because 04:31 you're you're paying a lot more for your 04:33 Bitcoin in that price correction than 04:36 you could be paying right now. Plus, 04:38 that assumes you'll actually buy it in 04:39 that price correction, which you 04:41 probably won't because you'll freak out 04:42 because the price will be dropping. 04:44 Also, you don't know when the price 04:46 correction will happen and you don't 04:47 know how big it will be, which means the 04:50 likelihood is that you will wait for a 04:53 30% correction, but it'll only correct 04:56 25%. And then you'll miss it. The price 04:59 will march higher and you'll be stuck 05:00 reaccumulating Bitcoin you could have 05:02 had today at 125,000 at 180,000 or 05:05 something like that. This stuff happens 05:06 all the time and it's been happening for 05:08 17 years now in the life of Bitcoin. So, 05:12 uh, the the advice of course is the same 05:15 that I always give, which is buy as much 05:16 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as 05:18 long as conceivably possible. Don't try 05:20 to time the market. Don't wait for dips 05:21 and all of that. Okay. So, low 05:23 probability scenario, we go through a, 05:25 you know, a bare market, medium 05:27 probability that there's at least a 20 05:29 or 30% price correction somewhere along 05:31 the way, probably to a price that's 05:33 higher than the price today. And 05:35 therefore, it does not make sense to 05:36 wait. Now the most likely scenario in my 05:40 opinion which I would give you know 05:42 maybe maybe bare market is you know sub 05:45 10% probability um you know medium-term 05:50 uh you know 20 or 30% price correction I 05:52 would say is I don't know a 20% 05:54 probability which leaves let's call it a 05:56 60 plus% probability that what we're 05:59 going to get is a big parabolic rise 06:02 from here and so why do we get big 06:04 parabolic rises? Well, they're first of 06:06 all, they're called parabolic because 06:07 they look like a parabola, meaning they 06:10 just basically the price takes off. Uh, 06:13 typically what happens is when an asset 06:14 goes up long enough, everybody starts 06:17 deciding that the asset will keep going 06:18 up for a long time and you start getting 06:21 demand from unexpected places. So, for 06:24 example, if uh uh Switzerland all of a 06:29 sudden decides that they're going to buy 06:30 some Bitcoin for their balance sheet, 06:32 that would trigger a series of dominoes 06:34 where a bunch of smaller countries would 06:36 likely start buying Bitcoin. Or if a 06:39 major corporation like Facebook, um you 06:42 know, Mark Zuckerberg's two goats are 06:44 called Max and Bitcoin, like Bitcoin 06:47 Max. So, um, you know, Mark Zuckerberg 06:51 might decide to put some Bitcoin on the 06:53 Facebook balance sheet. Um, but who 06:56 knows? I don't know what the catalyst 06:57 is. Um, I think it was JP Morgan this 06:60 week uh, you know, defined or coined the 07:03 term, I guess it was last week, the 07:05 debasement trade. The debasement trade 07:07 is, hey, what are you going to do in a 07:10 world where assets where the fiat 07:12 currencies are being debased by 07:13 governments? And their definition of the 07:16 debasement trade is people buying gold 07:18 and bitcoin. Gold is not very practical 07:20 for individuals to own. Central banks 07:23 have obviously massive vaults and 07:26 security teams and you know they can 07:28 send warships across the ocean uh to get 07:31 you know gold and all that sort of stuff 07:33 but gold is not very practical for the 07:36 individual and Bitcoin has superior 07:37 monetary properties on virtually every 07:40 vector to gold. So as a result of that 07:43 um I believe and many believe Bitcoin 07:46 will ultimately win out in the end and 07:48 surpass gold. But currently gold all the 07:50 value of all the gold gold that humans 07:52 own in the world is more than 10 times 07:54 the value of all the Bitcoin that exists 07:56 in the world or ever will. So Bitcoin 07:58 needs to increase in value by a factor 08:00 of more than 10 just to catch up to the 08:03 current price of gold. And the price of 08:05 both gold and bitcoin is likely to 08:06 continue to go up in the near term 08:08 because central banks are buying gold 08:10 and individuals are buying bitcoin and 08:13 uh companies etc. So I think we're 08:17 likely to have a parabolic rise in the 08:19 price of bitcoin coming soon. And the 08:21 question is what should you do about 08:22 that? Well one you should buy as much 08:24 bitcoin as you can before that happens 08:27 because once you get a parabolic rise it 08:29 become becomes very tempting to do crazy 08:31 stuff to get more bitcoin. But what ends 08:33 up happening is you end up buying near a 08:35 top and then there's a price correction 08:37 and then you feel like an idiot. Now, 08:38 the best way to not feel like an idiot 08:41 is to watch my videos because I'll keep 08:42 you in the loop. But typically, uh, I 08:45 watch James Czech. So, James Czech has a 08:48 newsletter called uh, Check on Chain. 08:50 And the primary goal of his newsletter 08:53 is to educate people on what is 08:55 happening in the world of Bitcoin and 08:56 what is about to happen in the world of 08:58 Bitcoin. And in that newsletter, he 09:01 covers all of the different metrics that 09:03 tell you are we in a major price uh 09:07 parabolic rise of the price of Bitcoin 09:08 and how likely are we to go through a 09:10 major price correction. So I posted 09:13 earlier a couple of the screenshots that 09:15 he uses for that purpose um from his 09:18 website and uh they one is the topping 09:21 cloud where he tracks and numerous 09:24 indicators that historically have 09:26 indicated when the market is getting 09:28 like super overheated and uh currently 09:31 zero of them are flagging. And then he's 09:34 got the hodddlers dashboard which tracks 09:36 four different metrics and tells you if 09:38 they're neutral or cool or heated or 09:40 overheated or whatever. And right now 09:43 none of those are flagging. Uh in fact, 09:45 we had an all-time high and literally 09:47 there was like no chatter. This is like 09:49 the quietest all-time high ever. So what 09:52 I recommend is buy as much Bitcoin as 09:53 you can before that parabolic rise. That 09:56 way you can enjoy the parabolic rise 09:58 because a you own a bunch of Bitcoin 09:59 that's going way up with the rest of 10:01 everybody's Bitcoin and B you don't have 10:03 to worry about is the price going to go 10:05 through a 20 or 30 plus% correction 10:08 after the parabolic rise. You don't have 10:10 to care because you already own your 10:12 Bitcoin. So if it doesn't go through a 10:14 correction, great. Your Bitcoin is worth 10:16 more. If it does go through a 10:18 correction, your Bitcoin is worth 10:20 slightly less than more, but still way 10:21 more than now. So, it is just way better 10:25 to buy Bitcoin before a huge parabolic 10:28 rise. But I know what's going to happen. 10:30 It's going to Bitcoin's going to start a 10:31 huge parabolic rise. And everybody's 10:33 going to be asking me, "Okay, Joel, I'm 10:35 finally convinced. You know, Bitcoin's 10:37 at 150,000, 160,000, 170,000, whatever 10:40 it is, and suddenly everybody is 10:42 convinced that they now are a Bitcoin 10:44 true believer, and it's time to start 10:46 accumulating Bitcoin. Of course, there's 10:48 never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. But 10:50 $125,000 is a way better time to buy 10:52 Bitcoin than $175,000, 10:55 but I promise you at $175,000, 10:57 everyone's going to be coming out of the 10:58 woodwork wanting to buy Bitcoin at that 11:01 level. And again, I'm going to have to 11:03 painfully tell them that all the 11:05 indicators that from James Czech are 11:06 saying, "Hey, it's getting a little 11:08 steamy in here." Not, that doesn't mean 11:10 it's a bad time to buy Bitcoin, but it 11:12 might mean you got to live through a 11:14 dip. So, your $175,000 Bitcoin's going 11:17 to dip down to, you know, $140,000 11:20 Bitcoin and you're going to not like it. 11:22 Uh, and it's just a lot easier to avoid 11:24 that if you buy the Bitcoin early and 11:26 then you don't have to worry about 11:28 whether it's dipping or not because it's 11:30 dipping to prices that are above the 11:31 price you paid. So, who cares? So, that 11:34 is the world we live in. What you need 11:36 to do for the next 3 to 6 months, I 11:38 would say one, acquire as much Bitcoin 11:40 as you possibly can now versus later. 11:42 Two, just understand that we may go 11:46 through a parabolic rise and that you 11:48 ought to keep a check, you know, keep 11:50 track of my videos which are going to be 11:52 closely tracking James Czech and his 11:54 check on chain newsletter to keep keep 11:56 you in the loop on how overheated or not 11:59 overheated everything is which hopefully 12:01 will keep you from buying the top which 12:03 in the long run you'll be glad you did 12:05 but in the short run you'll be annoyed 12:06 because your Bitcoin will be underwater 12:09 and it's no fun having your Bitcoin 12:10 underwater even if it's very 12:11 temporarily. 12:12 So keep an eye on that. Hopefully the 12:15 next 3 to 6 months is a wild and 12:17 enjoyable ride of Bitcoin upside. Uh the 12:20 only downside is all the stupid stuff. 12:23 XRP and every stupid coin will also get 12:26 dragged up with Bitcoin. So we're going 12:28 to have to put up with all these idiots 12:30 who think they found the next Bitcoin by 12:32 some stupid coin that's idiot, you know, 12:34 sort of attracts idiots. So that's the 12:36 only downside of like a huge parabolic 12:38 rise in the price of Bitcoin is you get 12:40 all these idiots that suddenly feel like 12:42 they found the next Bitcoin because a 12:44 rising tide floats all boats. And in the 12:46 case of Bitcoin, when the largest 12:48 cryptocurrency goes up, it tends to the 12:51 tide tends to float a lot of other 12:53 boats, including a bunch of stupid stuff 12:55 that has no value. And so you got to put 12:57 up with a bunch of idiots who felt like 12:58 they found the next big thing. Uh but 13:00 inevitably all that stuff ends up going 13:03 to zero and then all the you know the 13:05 people be quiet. But that is one 13:07 downside of a bull market is stupid 13:09 stuff starts to go up up too and then 13:12 you got to deal with people who think 13:13 they found the next big thing and don't 13:14 realize they're getting scammed 13:16 especially with stuff like XRP which is 13:18 just so blatantly ridiculously a scam 13:20 that you know it's annoying that people 13:22 get uh scammed. But anyway uh should be 13:25 a super fun next 3 to 6 months. Stay 13:27 safe out there. pay attention and buy 13:30 your Bitcoin before a huge parabolic 13:32 rise because it's a lot more painful if 13:34 you wait and you buy your and you're 13:35 stuck buying your Bitcoin at a lot 13:37 higher prices.