Bitcoin is $113,000 “Air pocket” is between $112,000 and $115,000 Should you be worried? NO

00:01 Bitcoin is in the air pocket between 00:03 $112,000 and $115,000. 00:06 Right now, it's trading at about 00:08 $113,000. 00:10 Should you be worried? Is it down? Come 00:12 on, people. Nothing's wrong with 00:13 Bitcoin. Nothing's ever wrong with 00:15 Bitcoin. Yes, we're like 10% below the 00:17 highest we've ever been in history. But 00:19 we're at record highs compared to 00:22 everywhere other than the last three 00:24 weeks. So, if your definition of an 00:26 asset being down is it's down from 00:29 everything, it's down only from prices 00:32 in the last three weeks, that's pretty 00:34 amazing because that means in the entire 00:36 16-year history of Bitcoin, you're up 00:39 compared to every other price other than 00:41 the last 3 weeks. Okay. So, why are we 00:44 down? Well, we're down because of supply 00:45 and demand. Because things go up and 00:47 down on their way up. Same with every 00:49 stock. Same with every bond, every 00:51 commodity. Doesn't matter how valuable 00:53 something is. Even gold, the 5,000-y 00:55 old, you know, precious metal, it goes 00:57 up and down on its way up. Bitcoin goes 00:59 up faster and than anything else in the 01:03 long term, but it goes up and down on 01:04 its way up. Okay? So, it goes down 01:07 because people there's more supply than 01:09 demand temporarily, more selling 01:11 pressure than buying pressure. And 01:13 that's primarily due to the Federal 01:15 Reserve earlier this week deciding not 01:17 to change interest rates. I think that 01:19 decision was earlier this week. 01:20 Regardless, it was, you know, widely 01:22 understood for whatever, you know, news 01:25 sources or whatever that the Federal 01:26 Reserve is not going to lower interest 01:28 rates, which means interest rates are 01:30 still high, which means Bitcoin has to 01:32 compete with the federal government 01:34 paying more than 4% interest for you to 01:37 do nothing with your money. So, the 01:39 federal government is basically bribing 01:40 you to do nothing with your money. And 01:42 Bitcoin has to compete with that. Now, 01:44 Bitcoin has been competing with high 01:46 interest rates ever since it was below 01:48 $20,000. So, we've gone from below 01:50 $20,000 to $113,000 01:53 in a high interest rate environment. So, 01:56 is it the end of the world if we have 01:57 high interest rates a little while 01:58 longer? Who the heck cares? We've 02:00 already we're up like five or 600% in a 02:03 high interest rate environment. We can 02:04 keep going in a high interest rate 02:06 environment, but there's lots of 02:08 short-term traders that are trading 02:10 trying to day trade in and out of 02:12 Bitcoin. And so, when you get news that 02:14 the Federal Reserve is not going to 02:15 lower interest rate, they freak out. and 02:18 they dump their bitcoin etc. Uh the 02:21 other phenomenon which I want to speak 02:22 specifically about is the concept of an 02:24 air pocket. What is an air pocket? How 02:26 do they emerge and what are they? Okay, 02:30 so an air pocket happens when a price 02:33 very quickly cuts through a price level 02:38 allowing very little time for people to 02:40 buy or sell at that price level. So in 02:43 this case, we went from bounced around 02:45 the highest Bitcoin had ever been was 02:46 $112,000 for like a second, literally a 02:50 second, and it had traded below that. 02:52 And then in the in the course of like a 02:54 day, Bitcoin shot through 112,000 up to 02:58 north of 115,000 and then basically 03:01 spent a whole lot of time between 115 03:04 and 123 bouncing around, bouncing 03:06 around, bouncing around. Everybody that 03:08 wanted to buy or sell Bitcoin between 03:11 11 115 and 123 had plenty of time to do 03:14 that. But all the people that were 03:16 willing to sell Bitcoin between 112 and 03:19 115, most of those people just hung on. 03:22 So out of eight billion people in the 03:24 world, there's some number of people 03:25 that were waiting for Bitcoin to hit a 03:28 certain number before they cash some out 03:30 to go on a nice vacation or they cash 03:33 some out for a down payment on a house 03:34 or they cash some out to pay, you know, 03:38 I don't know, pay off some medical 03:39 bills, whatever it is that people use 03:42 Bitcoin for. And when the price, let's 03:45 say a lot of those people were like, 03:47 "Okay, the highest it's ever been is 03:49 112. if it ever goes north of 112, I'm 03:52 going to sell. Well, they stop paying 03:54 attention or they get home from work and 03:55 it like shot through 112, 113, 114, 115. 03:59 Now it's at 116, 117. And they're like, 04:02 "Wait, now I don't want to sell anymore 04:04 because it's going up so fast that even 04:06 though I said I was going to sell to get 04:08 a down payment for a house, now I don't 04:09 want to anymore because it's going up so 04:11 fast." Well, what eventually happens is 04:13 the price starts dipping. And when it 04:15 starts dipping, everybody that was 04:17 willing to sell between 112 and 115 04:20 starts freaking out because they think, 04:22 "Uh-oh, it's dropping. Maybe it's going 04:24 to drop below 112 and I'm not going to 04:27 be able to cash out to get a down 04:29 payment on a house or buy a new car or 04:31 whatever it is or to go on a nice 04:33 vacation." So, they start selling trying 04:35 to keep get ahead of that. And so, that 04:37 pulls you into what's called the air 04:39 pocket. An air pocket emerges when the 04:41 price shoots up or down through a price 04:44 range very quickly with no trading 04:46 activity, which is is is like this. It's 04:48 like you get on an elevator. And again, 04:51 I like to use floors are like $1,000. 04:53 So, a lot of people get on the elevator 04:55 between the 90th floor, the 100th floor, 04:58 112th floor. Again, add a,000 for the 05:00 price of Bitcoin. So, there's a lot of 05:02 people that are like, "Hey, this 05:03 elevator keeps going up and down and up 05:05 and down and up and down. If it ever 05:06 goes higher than the 112th floor, I'm 05:08 getting off. I'll get off at 113, 114, 05:11 115. I don't care. I'm just getting off 05:12 if it ever goes to a new all-time high. 05:15 So then they start messing with their 05:16 phone and the elevator dings a few times 05:18 and they're like, "Wait, 117? 05:21 Uh, I think I'm going to stay on a 05:22 little while longer cuz it's going up. 05:24 It might keep going up." And if it keeps 05:27 going up, I might even be happier. But 05:29 again, you got to remember these people 05:30 have what what's called paper hands as 05:32 opposed to diamond hands. Diamond hands 05:35 are hands that can hold an asset through 05:36 thick and thin no matter what. people 05:38 like me. Then there's people with paper 05:40 hands. Paper hands are people that are 05:42 barely holding on to what they're 05:43 holding. They're holding it very loosely 05:46 and and can be very easily shaken out of 05:50 the market. So when the price starts to 05:52 dip due to supply and demand or due to 05:54 the Federal Reserve announcing 05:55 something, those people with paper hands 05:57 freak out. They sell their Bitcoin and 05:59 it forces us to bounce around in this 06:01 112 to 115 range. Now, could we go lower 06:04 than 112? Sure. There could be all a 06:08 myriad of factors uh that affect supply 06:10 and demand that could cause the price to 06:12 go lower than 112, but usually when you 06:15 get lower than an air pocket, there's a 06:16 lot more trading activity that happened 06:18 down there. So, it tends to push the 06:20 price higher. Now, we could also go 06:21 through another 32% price dip. We have 06:24 had two 32% price dips uh just in the 06:28 last I think two years. On the way up to 06:31 where we are on the way up from below 06:32 $20,000 06:34 to above $120,000. 06:37 We've had two 32% price corrections. 06:40 Obviously, it could correct more than 06:41 that. It could correct 40% 50%. Nobody 06:43 knows. Um all that matters is Bitcoin 06:46 goes up in the long term. But when 06:48 you're when you create an air pocket 06:49 because you slice through that trading 06:52 range with almost nobody transacting, it 06:55 just means a lot of people were willing 06:56 to transact, but now you now they're 06:58 sitting at higher levels with paper 07:00 hands. And so what tends to happen is 07:04 not with certainty, that price gets 07:06 sucked back into that air pocket to 07:08 spend a little time there to fill in 07:10 that air pocket with people buying and 07:11 selling, buying and selling, buying and 07:12 selling until there's been a fair amount 07:14 of buying and selling in that range. and 07:16 then it's you sort of have support to go 07:17 higher. Now, I know the question you're 07:19 asking, which is, hey, if there was an 07:21 air pocket between 112 and 115, why did 07:24 anybody buy at a price higher than that? 07:26 And the answer is because there's no 07:28 guarantee you're going to go back and 07:29 fill in that air pocket. And you're an 07:32 idiot if you don't buy Bitcoin because 07:34 there's an air pocket and you're willing 07:36 to miss out on the entire upside between 07:39 here and a million dollars hoping for an 07:42 air pocket. So, let me let me run some 07:43 numbers by you what I mean. Okay, in 07:46 percentage terms, between 115 and 112 is 07:50 less than 3%. Between 1816, 118 and 112 07:55 is only like five, let's call it 5%. 07:57 It's a little between five and 6%. So, 08:00 let's imagine Bitcoin in the future is 08:02 above 100, you know, a million dollars 08:04 per coin sometime five or 10 years from 08:06 now. And you're sitting down with 08:08 somebody and saying, I remember when 08:10 Bitcoin was barely above 100,000. And 08:12 they're like, "Oo, you were into Bitcoin 08:14 way back then. Did you buy a ton?" 08:16 You're like, and here's where the story 08:18 starts. As soon as there's a story, it's 08:19 a bad story. The story was, "Well, I 08:22 should have, but it was 117 08:26 and I thought it was going to go down to 08:28 112, so I was buy planning to buy at 08:30 113." And then it never went below 114. 08:35 And then I never bought the Bitcoin, and 08:37 now I missed out on a,000% returns, 08:39 10,000% returns. So, okay. So, let's run 08:42 the math. A logical person would say, 08:44 "Wait, the upside was between a,000% and 08:48 10,000%." 08:50 And you didn't want to you were not 08:53 willing to take 100% to 100 to 10,000, 08:57 sorry, you were not willing to take 08:59 a,000% to 10,000% return on your money 09:02 because you wanted 5% more than that. 09:05 So, you got imagine this on scales. On 09:08 one side of the scale, you have the 09:10 possibility of getting Bitcoin 5% 09:12 cheaper. On the other side of the scale, 09:14 you have between a,000 and a 10,000% 09:17 return. Now, you got to be an idiot to 09:20 say, I'm going to take the 5%. I want 09:23 that 5%. I'm willing to risk the entire 09:26 upside of Bitcoin to get an extra 5%. 09:29 Now, you might be thinking, hey, it's 09:31 not that bad because if it just keeps 09:32 going up, I'll just buy. So you're 09:34 saying, "Okay, so instead of 117 or 118, 09:39 you're going to wait for the air pocket 09:40 and then if the air pocket never comes, 09:42 you'll just buy it like $130,000." 09:45 So you're basically planning to either 09:47 get a 5% discount or chase the price up 09:50 to infinity. Well, what happens when the 09:52 price runs away from you, which happens 09:54 all the time, right? What about all the 09:56 people who are like, "If it dips, it's 09:58 at 108. If it dips to 105, I'll buy 10:01 some." and then a matter of a few days 10:03 it shoots to 123. What are they going to 10:05 do? Buy it 123? No, they're going to 10:07 freak out and not buy at all because it 10:09 feels too expensive. That's what humans 10:11 do. Um it's like my friend who sold a 10:14 hundred Bitcoin which is now worth more 10:16 than $10 million. What is thatund what 10:19 is I guess it's $10 million. 100 Bitcoin 10:22 worth more than $10 million. And he sold 10:24 them at 10,000 a coin planning to buy 10:26 them back cheaper. But by the time he 10:28 checked the price the price had tripled. 10:30 So, it was $30,000 to buy what is now 10:32 $10 million of Bitcoin. And he just 10:34 couldn't bring himself to b to pay 10:36 $30,000 for something he had just sold 10:37 for $10,000. So, that's the way it 10:39 works. If you don't go ahead and buy it, 10:42 then when you don't get the air pocket 10:43 and the price runs away from you, people 10:45 freak out and they're like, "If I was 10:47 going to buy it, I should have bought it 10:48 in the air pocket, but because the air 10:49 pocket never came, I didn't. And I guess 10:52 that one was just the one that got 10:53 away." And then they watch 10,000% 10:56 return. So my friend, I asked him, I was 10:58 like, "Okay, so you you sold it at $100 11:02 a bitcoin. You did not want to reby it 11:04 at $300 a bitcoin. Did you buy any 11:07 Bitcoin after that?" And he was like, 11:08 "No, because every price after that was 11:11 more expensive." So So he's watched 11:14 Bitcoin go from $300 11:17 to $113,000, 11:21 never buying any more Bitcoin because he 11:22 feels like he missed out. He feels like 11:24 if he was going to buy, he should have 11:26 held on to the Bitcoin at $100. And then 11:28 if $300 a coin was too expensive, so is 11:31 500, so is a,000. And you don't don't 11:33 buy it. So that there will be a ton of 11:35 people waiting for lower prices that 11:39 don't buy the lower prices when they 11:40 come. Cuz if the lower prices come now, 11:42 they don't want to buy them cuz they're 11:44 freaking out. They're like, I'll buy in 11:45 the air pocket. But then when the air 11:46 pocket comes, they're like, but the 11:48 price is dropping. Well, of course. How 11:50 do you think you go from 117 or 118 down 11:52 to 113? The price has got to drop. But 11:55 human psychology is as soon as the price 11:57 starts to drop, they freak out and they 11:58 don't want to buy anymore. So if you're 11:60 waiting for an air pocket, a the air 12:02 pocket may never get here. So then 12:04 you're screwed because the air the air 12:05 pocket never arrives. You never buy the 12:06 Bitcoin. or you wait for the air pocket 12:09 and the air pocket does arrive. But 12:11 because you the way you get to an air 12:13 pocket is with falling prices, you freak 12:15 out and you don't buy cuz you think, 12:17 uh-oh, if we drop from 118 down to 113, 12:20 something must be wrong with Bitcoin. 12:21 And then you don't watch at all or 12:23 sorry, then you don't uh buy at all and 12:25 then you miss out. So, you got two ways 12:26 of missing out or the air pocket doesn't 12:29 come and you end up buying back in at a 12:31 much higher price. So, you lose three 12:33 ways. So, why do I say just buy Bitcoin? 12:36 because it's a guaranteed win. Sure, you 12:39 might have gotten a 5% discount if you 12:41 waited, but that's a fool's game. It is 12:44 an absolute fool's errand to constantly 12:47 be waiting for 5% lower prices, hoping 12:50 and being willing to miss up on all the 12:53 upside just to try to get 5% better. So, 12:56 again, if you bought Bitcoin between 115 12:59 and 123, good for you. In the long term, 13:01 it won't it won't matter. If you didn't 13:04 buy Bitcoin up there, great. You can buy 13:06 it now, but if you're waiting for it to 13:08 go even lower, I'm telling you, you're 13:10 just going to miss out. People just do 13:11 this all the time. And I experienced 13:13 this myself back when you take a zero 13:16 off all the numbers. So, back in the 13:18 early days of Bitcoin, not early. I was 13:20 not early to Bitcoin. 2017, 2018, when I 13:22 got involved in Bitcoin, that was not 13:24 early. Um, but we're all early in the 13:26 long term. That's just nobody feels 13:28 early. I don't feel early because 13:30 everybody I talked to was buying Bitcoin 13:32 in 2013 and 2014 and everybody they 13:34 talked to was buying Bitcoin in 2011 and 13:37 2012. Like everybody feels like they're 13:39 late to Bitcoin. Anyway, give me one 13:40 second here. 13:44 So, let's knock let's knock uh $1,000 13:47 off the price. So, when I was in or 13:50 let's knock three zeros is what I meant 13:52 off the price or I guess two zeros. 13:56 Well, let's do one zero, but it applies 13:57 to 1 2 3 four and five zeros anyway. So, 14:01 I remember when Bitcoin was trading 14:02 between $11,000 and $12,000, which on a 14:06 percentage basis is exactly the same as 14:09 as it trading between 110 and 120, 14:12 right? 11020 14:14 is the same as 1 and 1. So, I remember 14:17 when it was trading between, you know, 14:19 between that and of course there were 14:20 air pockets back then, too. And 14:22 everybody's talking about, "I'm not 14:23 going to buy Bitcoin at 11,800. I'm 14:26 waiting for 11,300, but no. What about 14:28 11,500, but then I don't want to be 14:30 greedy, so I'll buy it at 11,400." Do 14:33 you think it anyone cares right now 14:36 whether somebody bought Bitcoin at 113 14:39 or at, you know, 11,300 or 11,500 or 14:43 11,700 or 11,800 or 12,300, which is the 14:47 equivalent of the highest it's ever been 14:48 now. 23 would translate back then to 14:51 11,000 uh or 12,300. Nobody cares. 14:55 Everybody just wishes they had bought as 14:57 much as they possibly could buy because 14:58 that's the only way to win in Bitcoin. 14:60 Buy as much as you can whenever you can 15:02 and hold on to it for as long as 15:04 conceivably possible. So trying to time 15:07 markets, trying to wait for air pockets, 15:09 it's a fool's errand. So if it's a 15:12 fool's errand, then why does James Czech 15:14 tell you about things like air pockets? 15:16 The answer is so that you understand 15:17 them when they get here. So, when you 15:19 dip into an air pocket and you trade 15:20 there, instead of feeling like a like 15:22 you're lost or you're off the track or 15:24 off the trail, it's like, "Oh, this 15:26 makes sense." Now that we're between 112 15:29 and 115, we might hang out here a little 15:30 while. We might not, but we might. But 15:33 it's not it's not like some there's 15:35 nothing wrong that we're here. It's just 15:37 like, hey, there was an air pocket down 15:39 there and the marketplace decided to 15:41 revisit it because air pockets have a 15:43 little bit of a magnetic draw to them. 15:45 Uh now again the gravitational pull is 15:47 up not down in the case of Bitcoin. So 15:50 long-term it's always being pulled up by 15:53 the laws of supply and demand and 15:54 greater worldwide adoption but in the 15:56 near term you get these air pockets that 15:58 are like this little magnetic attraction 15:59 that's pulling it down. So here we are 16:01 in the air pocket. We might be here a 16:03 little while. We might not. We might go 16:04 lower. Nobody knows. Just buy as much 16:07 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as 16:08 long as conceivably possible. And the 16:10 last thing I'll say is I try to be your 16:13 sherpa, which means make all the stuff 16:14 easy to understand. My sherpa is James 16:17 checkmate. He goes by the the check uh 16:20 checkmate or checkmate e uh m- a t ey 16:25 or ey y or e y whatever checkmate on 16:28 Twitter. He is my sherpa because he does 16:30 all the technical analysis. He's the 16:31 only technical analyst that makes any 16:33 sense. Most of them are just complete 16:35 garbage. But he he identifies things 16:37 like this and he says, "Look, this is 16:39 human behavior. When when you shoot 16:41 through a price level and basically 16:43 almost nobody trades between 112 and 16:45 115, there are people sitting out there 16:47 with weak hands. You got paperhanded 16:49 Bitcoiners out there that were willing 16:51 to sell. They're sort of sitting on the 16:53 edge of their seat afraid that they're 16:55 going to miss the opportunity to get a 16:56 down payment on a house. And if you dip 16:58 back into that range, those people are 16:60 going to freak out. They're afraid it's 17:01 going to go below the 112, which was the 17:04 highest it had ever been before. But now 17:06 they don't want to get less than that. 17:07 And so they're going to be selling. So 17:09 there's going to be buying and selling. 17:10 So I don't know. We could spend five 17:12 minutes more in this range. We could 17:13 spend another couple days. We could 17:15 spend a couple hours. We could spend 17:16 weeks. I don't know. It doesn't matter 17:18 in the long term because in the long 17:19 term all of the prices are going to seem 17:21 low in the long term. And the long term 17:23 is all that matters. So hope all that 17:26 helps. We're in the air pocket. It was 17:28 there was no guarantee we were going to 17:29 get here. It does not make any sense to 17:32 wait for an air pocket because again, 17:33 for all the reasons I said, you're going 17:35 to end up missing out, screwing yourself 17:37 over. Happens all the time. Uh, but we 17:39 are here. And again, if you want to 17:41 follow things just play byplay, you 17:44 know, bit by bit, every step of the way, 17:46 James Czech is a better guy than I am. 17:48 He's just a little bit more technical 17:49 than I am, which is why I try to be your 17:51 guide as well. First of all, I'm free. 17:53 He charges $29 a month. So, everything I 17:56 do, I do at my own expense out of my own 17:58 pocket for absolutely free. So, I want 18:00 to get free content out there so that 18:02 nobody has to pay a subscription. Nobody 18:04 has to buy anything uh to get content 18:07 and also because I try to take what 18:09 James Czech does and simplify it to the 18:13 masses even one more step than he does. 18:15 He tries to make it pretty accessible. I 18:16 try to make it accessible even to a 18:19 whole a whole another level than even 18:21 what he does. So, hopefully all this 18:22 helps. Nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. The 18:24 Bitcoin blockchain is processing 18:26 transactions. I can still, if I had a 18:28 billion dollars, I could still move a 18:30 billion dollars to the other side of the 18:31 world in a minute. And the Bitcoin 18:34 blockchain is doing the same thing the 18:35 champion Bitcoin blockchain always does, 18:38 which is be amazing, be secure, be 18:40 decentralized, be unconfiscatable, 18:43 untouchable by governments. Bitcoin is 18:45 the same amazing thing it's always been. 18:47 We're just in an air pocket based on 18:48 supply and demand. In the long term, no 18:51 one will care. Hope all that helps. Buy 18:53 as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to 18:55 it for as long as conceivably possible. 18:57 Same strategy as always, same formula as 18:59 always. Have a great day, everyone.