Bitcoin may be about to enter euphoria. I would buy it before it does. Here are my thoughts.

00:01 Bitcoin may be about to enter the 00:04 euphoria phase, and I would buy it 00:06 before it does. If you don't, uh, you're 00:09 going to put both of us in the awkward 00:10 position of you wanting to buy more 00:13 Bitcoin in the smack middle of euphoria 00:16 and me telling you that there's never a 00:18 bad time to buy Bitcoin, but it would 00:20 have been great if you didn't wait for 00:22 the euphoria phase. So, um, it does not 00:25 feel like we are in the euphoria phase 00:27 yet. Typically the rule with euphoria is 00:30 when you're in it, you know it because 00:32 nobody's asking. When when you're 00:34 actually in the euphoria phase, nobody 00:36 is asking are we in the euphoria phase 00:39 because it's clear that you feel 00:41 euphoric and it's uh and it's great. Um, 00:45 so I don't think we're near a top in the 00:48 cycle to for Bitcoin, but um, we're 00:51 getting close to the time every four 00:53 years when Bitcoin goes through a 00:55 temporary euphoria phase before it 00:57 continues uh, well before it typically 00:59 goes through a price correction and then 01:00 marches um, back up again. So why do 01:05 assets go through a euphoria phase? The 01:07 answer is because high-erforming assets 01:10 once they have been high-erforming long 01:12 enough, people start to believe that 01:15 they will be high performing forever as 01:17 a result of money. People start to 01:19 borrow money and buy the asset with 01:21 borrowed money. And this happens 100% of 01:24 the time uh with a high performing 01:27 asset. They will always go through these 01:28 ups and downs on the way up because that 01:31 is human psychology. Let me give you an 01:33 example. Let's assume there's a 01:35 hypothetical asset that goes up in value 01:37 1% per week. That's a 52% return uh per 01:42 year, which is obviously way better than 01:44 say the the cost to borrow 6% 7% 8% or 01:49 9% on a whole equity line of credit or 01:52 something like that. So, as soon as 01:53 something goes up 1% a week for long 01:55 enough, people are going to start 01:56 thinking, "Oo, I should buy that with 01:58 borrowed money." Then I'll pay 8% on 02:02 borrowing the money. I'll get a 52% 02:04 return. What could go wrong? Well, this 02:07 inevitably happens after a period of 02:09 time with any high performing asset. 02:10 It's like a 100% correlation that if 02:12 enough time passes that 02:17 buying that asset with borrowed money 02:19 and soon more money is chasing the asset 02:22 than is sustainable based on market 02:25 demand based on actually market I 02:27 shouldn't say demand because obviously 02:28 it's always supply and demand. What I 02:30 mean is based on market adoption. So 02:32 there ends up being more demand for the 02:34 asset in addition to the adoption of the 02:37 asset which means the price of the asset 02:39 gets ahead of the realistic sustainable 02:42 price level based on the adoption of the 02:44 asset. This happened in 2011, 2013, 2017 02:50 and 2021. 2011 was sort of an early 02:53 anomaly. So normally people talk about 02:55 it as the Bitcoin four-year cycle and 02:58 it's always the year after the 02:60 presidential election. It's usually the 03:02 second half of the year after a 03:04 presidential election. Bitcoin tends to 03:06 go through a period of euphoria. Um, and 03:09 that has lined up again with 03:10 presidential elections in 2012, 2016, 03:12 and 2020. The year after that have has 03:15 been the sort of year, the second half 03:18 of the year after has been the year of 03:20 euphoria uh for at least part of that 03:22 year. So again, that would be 2013, 03:24 2017, 2021, and you know, 2025, which is 03:28 where we are. So, Bitcoin is within a 03:31 couple one or two percentage points of 03:32 the highest it's ever been in history, 03:34 but it does not yet feel like we've gone 03:36 through the euphoria phase. So, what 03:38 happens in the euphoria phase? Well, 03:40 what happens in the euphoria phase is 03:42 people start looking back at the last, 03:44 you know, from the let's say all of 23, 03:47 all of 24, and half of 25. They look at 03:49 back at the last 2 and 1/2 years and 03:50 they're like, "Wait, it more than 03:52 doubled in 23, then it more than doubled 03:55 in 24, and we're on track for Bitcoin to 03:58 more than double in 25." Like, that's a 04:00 lot of that's a lot of return. 100% 100% 04:03 run 100%. I mean, that results in an 04:06 asset being worth more than eight times 04:08 what it started at at the beginning of 04:10 2023. So, Bitcoin started 2023 around 04:13 16,000 per coin. It was above 32,000 by 04:17 the end of ' 04. It got above uh sorry 04:21 by the end of 2023 is what I meant to 04:23 say. Then it got above, you know, call 04:26 it double that 64,000ish 04:28 by the end of 2024 and we're on track to 04:32 have it above 128 by easily because 04:35 we're like we could be days away from 04:37 128. Heck, we could hit 128 today. It's 04:39 not impossible. I mean, we're at 121, 04:43 122. it would take a not much of a 04:45 bounce to go to 128 and there we've 04:47 doubled the you know 20 the the at least 04:50 the average price in 2024 if not the end 04:53 of year price we would have a averaged 04:55 the price it was for most of 2024 so 04:57 anyway you're looking at eight times 04:59 your money from the beginning of 2023 to 05:01 the end of 2025 in 3 years people are 05:03 going to look at that and they're going 05:04 to say wow that's a lot of return and 05:07 again people are going to start 05:08 borrowing money people are going to 05:09 start thinking that Bitcoin goes up 05:11 forever that 100% return is sustainable 05:13 which is not no asset can double forever 05:16 and they start using borrowed money. So 05:18 what does that mean for you? Well, what 05:20 first of all what it means is if you are 05:22 planning to buy more Bitcoin, it feels 05:25 like again I could be completely wrong 05:27 on this. This is not financial advice, 05:29 not legal advice, not accounting advice, 05:31 not tax advice, not any sort of not 05:34 investment advice, not any sort of 05:35 advice. This is just one person's random 05:37 opinion. It feels like and that is which 05:40 is validated by the research by James 05:42 Czech, the one and only Bitcoin analyst 05:45 that's really really worth following. Um 05:47 there's some other good macro analysts 05:49 like Lyn Alden and others but James 05:51 Czech is in a complete league of his own 05:53 and all of the indicators would indicate 05:55 that where we are right now with Bitcoin 05:57 is not at a cycle top. So, none of the 05:60 indicators would indicate that we are 06:02 peaking right now and about to go 06:04 through a brutal bare market, which is 06:07 what typically happens after a period of 06:08 euphoria. And I'll talk about what that 06:10 looks like in, you know, in a minute or 06:12 two here when I get to it. Um, so 06:15 according to James Jack and everybody 06:17 else, most people would say yes, now is 06:19 a good time to buy Bitcoin. But pretty 06:22 quick here, we're going to kick into the 06:23 euphoria zone. The problem with the 06:25 euphoria zone is that's when everybody 06:27 wants to buy Bitcoin because if you 06:30 don't if you haven't done the work to 06:32 study Bitcoin one second 06:36 if you haven't done the work to study 06:37 Bitcoin and build your 06:40 uh 06:44 coin then what you are doing instead is 06:48 you are buying based on how you feel and 06:51 buying based on how you feel instead of 06:54 intellectual ual hard work tends to 06:56 result in people buying things and 06:57 selling things at the wrong time. So 06:59 they tend to buy assets in the euphoria 07:02 phase and then sell them at the bottom 07:04 of a bare brutal down market because 07:07 they feel awful. They feel awful when 07:09 their assets are down, so they sell them 07:10 when they're down. And they feel amazing 07:12 when their assets are so they way more 07:14 of it when it's way up, which is 07:16 obviously the opposite of what you're 07:19 supposed to do in investing, which is 07:20 buy things when they're on sale. And in 07:22 this case with Bitcoin, your goal is not 07:24 to sell it, but your goal is not to be 07:26 buying it at the most expensive price 07:28 conceivable. So, what's likely to to 07:30 play out between now and the end of the 07:32 year is Bitcoin will likely very rapidly 07:35 in the next month or two here catapult 07:38 from uh 120,000 to 150,000 which point 07:43 the whole world will wake up and 07:44 everybody will be calling me saying hey 07:47 I told you I had already bought all the 07:48 Bitcoin I was planning to I think I want 07:51 to buy a bunch more. Now, that puts me 07:53 and you in an awkward position because 07:56 never going to tell you it's a bad time 07:57 to buy Bitcoin because if you wait long 07:59 enough, it's always a good time to buy 08:00 Bitcoin. What I will be thinking is why 08:03 didn't you buy it at 120 or 122 instead 08:06 of 150 because at some point we will hit 08:10 a cycle top. Now, currently James Czech 08:13 would say he doesn't know where that is. 08:15 Maybe it's 150. Maybe it's actually I 08:18 think that's probably lower than he 08:19 would say. Let's call it, you know, the 08:22 lowest end of the band where we could 08:24 hit a top is, again, this is purely 08:27 speculative, maybe 160 to 180. The upper 08:30 end of where we would hit a top is maybe 08:33 230, you know, call it 220 to 240. So, 08:36 sort of lower end of that maybe 160 to 08:38 180. Higher ends maybe, you know, 2 220 08:41 to 240,000 per coin. Um, you don't want 08:45 to buy at the epic highest price because 08:49 then again, you'll still be up in four 08:50 years, but who wants to wait four years? 08:52 That's a long time. So, if you're buying 08:55 right now, you're probably almost 08:57 guaranteed to be up within two or three 08:60 years. Maybe never we never see 120,000 09:04 ever again. And you're always up. Who 09:05 knows? But, uh, if you're buying at 160, 09:08 180, certainly 220, 240, you're probably 09:11 going to have to spend at least a year 09:13 or two underwater on your investment. 09:16 Now, the problem you're probably 09:18 thinking is, why don't I just wait? Why 09:20 don't I wait and buy Bitcoin in the next 09:23 price correction? And the answer is 09:25 because we don't know when that will 09:27 happen. We don't know if that will 09:29 happen. And if it or when it does 09:32 happen, we don't know how low the price 09:34 will go. So, let's assume we go to peak 09:38 euphoria, which right now, James Czech 09:39 would probably say peak euphoria is 09:41 around $240,000 per coin. So, we double 09:44 we double in a series of two to three 09:47 months. Okay, that's crazy. First of 09:49 all, that's not sustainable. It can't 09:50 just like keep going, you know, that 09:53 fast all the way with no price 09:55 corrections along the way. The nature of 09:56 assets is they go through price 09:58 corrections. if they any asset that goes 10:00 up that fast is going to go through 10:02 price corrections along the along the 10:03 way where it washes out the people that 10:06 were using leverage borrowed money they 10:08 lose their money you know there's 10:10 wreckage along the way and the people 10:11 who hold on they're all fine um but 10:14 let's assume we do go to 240 and you're 10:17 waiting because you're thinking hey I'm 10:18 not going to buy at 122 I'm going to 10:21 wait for the next price correction okay 10:23 when are you going to buy it are you 10:25 going to buy it if it goes from 240 down 10:28 to 230 30. Is that what you're going to 10:29 buy? Cuz the 230 is way higher than 122. 10:33 Are you going to wait for it to go down 10:34 to 180? That's still way higher. Are you 10:37 going to wait for it to drop from 240 to 10:39 140? Well, 140 is still a lot higher 10:42 than 122, which you can buy it for right 10:44 now. Or are you going to wait for the 10:46 price to go lower than the price today 10:48 in the next bare market? It might, but 10:51 if so, how much? Are you going to wait 10:52 until it goes down from 122 10:56 down to 118? because you could have 10:58 bought it for that like two days ago or 11:00 are you going to wait for 110? I promise 11:03 you whatever price you're waiting for, 11:05 the price of Bitcoin will dip to a price 11:08 just above that level and then it will 11:11 go back, you know, climb back to new 11:14 all-time highs above whatever the 11:16 highest it gets in 2025 or 2026 is. And 11:19 you will be waiting because you never 11:22 bought because you were waiting for the 11:25 price to hit 110 again and the price 11:28 only ever hit 112. 11:31 It happens all the time. Back in 2022, 11:33 the price was dipping after going 11:35 through a period of euphoria in 2021. 11:38 the price was going through a brutal 11:40 bare market in 2022 driven by a bunch of 11:42 stupidity, a bunch of borrowed money and 11:44 ultimately Sam Bankmanf freed who 11:46 scammed a bunch of people and stole a 11:48 bunch of money and um and you know as a 11:51 result people thought you know the whole 11:53 crypto industry was over and it was done 11:55 and all that sort of stuff. Of course it 11:57 wasn't. Bitcoin always comes back no 11:58 matter what. That's the beauty of it. 11:60 Um, but if you were waiting, there was a 12:03 ton of people all over Twitter. People 12:04 were like, "Look, in the price recovery 12:08 after 2017, it went down this much 12:11 percentage." And so, they had all 12:12 figured out the same percentage meant 12:14 that Bitcoin was going to come down to 12:16 between uh 12,800 and 13,800. So, people 12:20 all over Twitter are bragging about how 12:22 cheap they're going to buy Bitcoin at 12:24 $13,800. 12:26 Well, the price dipped from $69,000 down 12:30 to 15,500, which is a much bigger price 12:33 correction than I would anticipate ever 12:35 happening again. We live in a new the 12:37 age of exchange traded funds. Obviously, 12:39 we don't have Sam Begman free running 12:41 around scamming everybody, all that sort 12:42 of stuff. But it was a brutal price 12:44 correction. But all the people waiting 12:46 for the price to hit 13,800 did not buy 12:50 at 15,500. They were all convinced they 12:53 were going to get a little bit more of a 12:55 discount. And now they've missed out on 12:57 what? Seven times their money. So they 12:60 missed out on a 700% return because they 13:03 wanted a 10% cheaper, 20% cheaper. And 13:07 they missed out on a 700% return. Don't 13:09 play that game. People are constantly 13:10 playing that game. They're constantly 13:12 losing. People are constantly telling 13:13 me, "But it seemed expensive." So I was 13:16 waiting for the price to go down. And 13:17 then I was like, "Well, did it go down?" 13:18 Well, yeah. Well, did you buy it? Well, 13:20 no. because I was waiting for it to go 13:21 down a little more. And no matter how 13:24 low the price dips, you're going to 13:26 think it still might go down some more. 13:29 So, I better just wait a little bit more 13:30 and then you don't buy it. And then 13:32 boom, there's 700% return that you 13:34 didn't get. Sorry about that. You 13:36 shouldn't have played that game. Don't 13:37 outsmart yourself. Happens all the time. 13:40 Please don't do that. Um, so easy 13:42 solution is buy as much Bitcoin as you 13:44 can. Hold on to it for as long as 13:46 conceivably possible. It's the same 13:48 strategy that's always worked for 13:49 everybody that's ever done anything in 13:51 Bitcoin is buy as much as you can. Hold 13:53 on to as long as as as possible. And if 13:55 you're considering buying more Bitcoin 13:57 in 2025 or 2026, in my opinion, I would 14:00 go ahead and do it. Go ahead and get it 14:02 out of the way. Do not wait for the 14:04 euphoria phase to buy Bitcoin because in 14:07 the euphoria phase, you're going to want 14:09 to buy Bitcoin really bad because it 14:11 feels great, but you'll also be buying 14:13 it at 150, 160, 180,000 a coin and then 14:17 you're going to be stuck going through a 14:19 bare market and none of us wants that. 14:21 Um, so please don't put yourself in that 14:24 position. Uh it's bad for you, it's bad 14:27 for me, it's bad for all of us. And uh 14:29 it's a lot better if you just buy it 14:31 before the euphoria really kicks in 14:33 because, you know, it's just better for 14:35 everybody that way. Uh so anyway, I 14:37 think we probably will go through a 14:39 significant period of euphoria in the 14:41 second half of this year. Uh maybe even 14:43 into 2026, I don't know. But the best 14:45 time to buy Bitcoin is before that 14:47 euphoria so that you're not stuck trying 14:49 to guess whether you're buying it at at 14:51 the super expensive top. uh it's better 14:53 to just buy it before the euphoria 14:55 happens. It just makes life easier for 14:57 you, makes it easier for me and all 14:59 around everything's better. And that way 15:01 you can ride through the euphoria 15:02 feeling great, but when the price 15:04 cracks, you're like, I don't care. You 15:05 know, the price drops from 180 down to 15:08 140, you're like, I don't care. I bought 15:10 it at 120, so it doesn't matter. Uh a 15:13 lot better to be in that position than 15:15 to be paying it all the way up up into 15:18 and through the peak of euphoria. 15:20 Everybody ends up doing that and it's 15:22 just not fun when the price correction 15:24 comes and then you're stuck being down 15:27 on your investment for a year or 15:28 something like that and you could have 15:30 avoided all of that by not waiting for 15:32 the euphoria to buy. As always, hope 15:34 it's all helpful. I'm here for anything 15:36 you need. Message me if I can be of 15:38 assistance. Have a great day, everyone.