Bitcoin PREDICTIONS April–August 2026

predictions for April through August of 2026. First of all, we know the predictions are almost never correct, but I wanted to give you insights of what James Czech and others have been saying. First of all, markets that are in a bare market, which means a pessimistic a down market uh have price pain and time pain. Price pain is when the price drops a lot. Time pain is when it grinds down at a low enough price that it just wears you out. And so, think about it as price pain is when the market scares you out. Time pain is when the market wears you out. So the goal in a bare market is not to be scared, you know, don't let it scare you out or wear you out as Jack Morers says. Okay, so first of all, was $60,000 the lowest we're going to get in this bare market? Probably, but nobody knows. So there's probably a 60 70 maybe 75% chance that that's the lowest it's ever going to go. Uh typically a bare market has one final capitulation before it goes, you know, relatively steadily up for multiple years following that. So we haven't really had a second major capitulation after the $60,000, but we did have two capitulations before. We had a capitulation down to like $80,000, which was a big drop, and then another one down to $60,000. So maybe the two front-loaded big price drops were sort of enough to scare out all the weak hands and leave the market nice and clean with people with conviction. But maybe it wasn't. Maybe it needs one more last flush to get all uh to separate the wheat from the chaff. Uh we don't know. And it depends on what the price is at the time that happens for uh to know whether we set a new a new low. For example, right now the price is about $74,000. Well, if the price is $74,000 and you get a big crash from there, there's a good chance it never touches 60 because you got $14,000 of space between 74 um and 60. Now, if the price is grinding around at $66,000 when suddenly there's, you know, um, World War II starts between the US and China over Taiwan or something like that, then yeah, in the short term, if we're we're starting at 66 and World War II starts, we're probably going below 60,000 temporarily because we're relatively close to it. And when you're only 10% above a threshold, it's a lot easier to undercut it, even if it's shortlived. Um, if you're up at 74 or up at 90,000, well, yeah, the probability you're going below 60 is way less. So, the higher we climb, the probability that we undercut 60 is low. Uh, gets lower and lower, I should say. But again, nobody knows. All right. Second of, how long is this grinding going to happen? Well, sometime between April and August, which is what James Czech is predicting, which is why that's the title of this video. He says typically the shortest a bare market would last would put us you know marching upward consistently uh by April and we're you know second half of March right now but it often takes longer and typically you got to get that time pain you know before the market can consistently march up markets all markets not just Bitcoin this goes for stocks and real estate and gold typically there's a certain amount of pain everybody's got to experience to shake out all the weak hands and transfer the asset from the the weak hands to the strong hands uh before the market consistently climbs. So, have we had enough of that? According to James Czech, probably not yet. We probably need some more uh time pain. Uh even if we've had the majority of the price pain, we probably need some more time pain before we're out of it for good. Okay. So, and again, according to James Czech, looking at every past Bitcoin bare market and all of that, he concludes that we probably need some additional time pain, putting us sometime between April and August before the bottom of the market happens uh definitively. And look, maybe the last definitive bottom of the market is the price goes up to 80,000, drops to 65, and then it's smooth sailing. If so, that will be a final capitulation, but it also will not be the the bare market low because the low will still be 60,000. If the price crashes from 85 or 80 down to 65, it's going to feel super like a gut punch, but technically it will not even set a new low because that low right now is at 60,000. Okay. So, how much lower could we go if we do go lower? Well, first of all, James Czech always looks at that through the lens of, I think, nine different models. You know, you can do the 200E moving average, the 200 day moving average, you've got the power law, you've got all these different models that predict uh well, it's it's called mean reversion. All markets are mean reverting. That means over time they overshoot some average and then they undershoot that average for a period of time. Then they overshoot it, then they undershoot it, then they overshoot it, then they undershoot it. Now the problem of course is nobody knows what that average is. If you did know it would be super easy to trade the market because for example if you always knew that things were over you know overvalued if they were above the 200E moving average and undervalued if they were below it. Well then you could just you know buy and sell accordingly. The problem is you don't know. As soon as you use the 200week moving average and consider it to be gospel truth, well, guess what? Suddenly the 200week moving average is not going to be the mean reverting average anymore and something else will take over because everybody's trying to use the 200E moving average as their mean reversion model. Meaning, you know, the place where sort of the price gravitates back to whether it's high or low, it's sort of going back to a certain level that's always rising. So sometimes the 200WE moving average uh even if people try to trade it, they mess it up because when it goes above the 200E moving average, the 200WE moving average is $50,000 and they think I'll sell it now and I'll buy back in when it's below 200 uh below that level. Well, by the time the actual price gets below that level, the 200E moving average has moved up from 50 to 75. So they basically sold the Bitcoin at 50,000 and bought it back at 75, which was of course the opposite of what they were trying to do. But regardless, markets in general are mean reverting. Meaning, if you have an upward slanting line that is the start and end point of a of a price of a of something over the course of, let's say, 17 years, like Bitcoin, then over time, that upward sloping line, the price will be above it sometimes and below it other times. And again, if you model that a bunch of different ways, uh you can figure out how long Bitcoin is above or below. And you can also figure out what percent of time Bitcoin spends above or below. So for example, right now Bitcoin is in the bottom 20 percentile of prices. Meaning 80% of the time Bitcoin is higher relative to those models than it is now. Which means if you're buying Bitcoin right now, on average you're buying it at a better price than 80% of the time. Meaning you're buying it in the best 20% of the time. Now, the reason that is valuable is you can start to figure out the likelihood that the price will go below a certain level. I think $60,000 is uh something the uh something like only 5% of days have been on average cheaper than that price as compared to various benchmarks. Now, if somebody says to you there's only a 5% chance something's going to happen, then it there's a 95% chance it won't happen. But there's never a 0% chance it won't happen. So even if somebody says, "Look, Bitcoin has only been below the equivalent historically of $60,000 5% of the time." Well, guess what? One of those 5% of the time days could be later in 2026. We don't know. And guess what? Because all of these models are based on statistical probabilities of the past, there's nothing that guarantees that we're not going to have an outlier where uh the you know, I don't I forget what you call it. It's like a Q1 event. Quantile one as in, hey, this has never happened before. And the probability that it would ever happen was one less than 1%. And guess what? It happened. Well, now everybody has to update their models because a probability that was only supposed to happen less than 99% of the time or more than, you know, less than 1% of the time or whatever just happened. So yeah, could Bitcoin go below 60,000? Maybe. But historically, even before the Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin was only that that low. 5% of the time. We don't have a bunch of bankruptcies. We don't have Sam Bankman Freed, you know, scamming everybody and stealing their money at FTX. We don't have any of that right now. Um, and the market doesn't appear to have it on the Bitcoin side. And even James Czech would say, look, the probability that uh a the price will correct below $60,000 if it happens, which is a low probability, but if it happens, it will probably not be a Bitcoin related event. What he means by that is you're probably looking at something like World War II or a massive, you know, worldwide recession or something crazy that drags everything down with it. It's not going to be like 2022 when the thing that blew up was companies around Bitcoin. Now, they actually weren't companies around Bitcoin. They were companies around a bunch of stupid crypto coins that had no value. Like the FTT coin, uh, which was the FTXcoin. Their FTX coin was called FTT, and that was the coin that brought brought them down. They had a bunch of it. they borrowed against it and they made Binance uh CZ over at Binance mad and he crashed FTX because he dumped a bunch of his FTT tokens at the same time and it basically took down FT FTX uh because they had leveraged and borrowed against something that did not have any underlying value. So that had nothing to do with Bitcoin, but it was around crypto in general, even though Bitcoin and crypto are very different things because crypto tends to describe all the stupid stuff that people use blockchain technology for, whereas Bitcoin's its own thing. But regardless, it's always a chance that we will have a probability one event, meaning, you know, there was a less than 1% of a chance this happened and the price has never traded below X level and then it suddenly does. Well, that can always happen, but it's not likely. So, uh, if the price goes below 60,000, it's only spent 5% of its days equivalent lower than that. And that was before, uh, we had the Bitcoin ETFs that were just hoovering up Bitcoin everywhere. It was before Michael Sailor was hoovering up Bitcoin everywhere with all of the exotic instruments he has to do that right now. And it was when the stuff that was blowing up was in close proximity to Bitcoin and all the crypto junk. So, we don't have that now. But that doesn't mean a macro worldwide recession or World War III can't drag the price down. You know, it can. All right. The last thing I'll say is I've been predicting from the beginning that the bare markets would be less and less painful with each passing Bitcoin bear. So, if you've watched my videos from way back where I was cataloging all the Bitcoin bare markets, the very first Bitcoin bare market, the price dropped 94%. That was after 2011. um I should say in 2020. I'll use the the actual dates the price dropped not not the high before that. Okay. So, uh peak well I'll give both. So, the peak was in 2011. The price dropped 94% in 2012 from 90, you know, from $32 to $2. Um actually, I'm going to this going to be too many numbers. I'll just do it percentages. Okay. When the price dropped from a high in 2011 to a low in 2012, which was down to $2, that was a 94% drop. When the price went from a high in 2013 to a low in 2014, which was $92, not $2, but $92, that was a 93% drop. Now, notice it was not a 94% drop. It was a 93% drop, which is less. When the price dropped uh from the high in 2017 to the low in 2018, that was an 84% drop. Again, not 94, not 93, but 84. That leaves a lot more of the price still intact. So instead of 6% of the price intact uh and then 7% or what was it 94 and the 93 so 6% then 7% now you got 16% of the price is still intact. Uh then fast forward to 2022 instead of dropping 84% the price only dropped from the high of uh 2021 to the low of 2022 77.5%. So I have historically been saying I did not think this bare market would drop more than roughly 50%. Well, the biggest drop we've had from 126,000 down to uh 60,000 was 52%. Okay, I was saying I didn't think it'd be more than, you know, 50%ish. Well, I guess technically if that was the low, I was off by 2%. Now, I thought the price would be significantly higher when it dropped by 50%. So, I was wrong about that and I fully own that. Uh we did not get the upside. uh I anticipated in uh 2005 uh 2025 for a bunch of reasons I have talked about in the past but uh subsequently that also means we that this Bitcoin bare market has been much less uh you know uh painful than past ones as well. So anyway, so I think when we look back on it, we're going to say hey the five Bitcoin bare markets, they went from a drop of 94% to 93% to 84% to 77.5% to 52%. That's a nice big drop. Leaving 48% of the price intact, which is $60,000 is 48% of 126, which means there's a 52% price drop. Again, it could go lower. I just don't think we're anywhere close to, and nobody's predicting it's going to be anywhere close to the drops of the past. So, do we have more price pain? Probably not, but maybe. Do we have more time pain? Almost certainly, yes. James Czech says, "Look, we're going to be grinding around. It's just we are. It's going to be some series of months. Earliest one month, but probably two or three months, you know, more like four or five is more likely. Just be patient. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Same advice as always. My advice never changes. Always here to help. Bitcoin's been through this before. I've been through this before. This is my third Bitcoin bare market. I bought in 2017. I went through the 2018 bare market. I went through the 22 bare market. Uh here we are in the 2026 bare market. You'll be fine. Everyone will be fine. Bitcoin's always fine. And it will always outperform every other asset just like it always does over a long enough time frame. And a long time frame is not five or six months. It's give it a few years just like any investment. So I'm here to help if you need me. Otherwise, have a great evening. Thanks everyone.