Bitcoin’s Future Is More Certain Than You Think!

Does anyone know what Bitcoin is going to do? The answer is yes and no. On the technology side, yes, we know exactly how Bitcoin works. It's open source. We know how it processes transactions. We know how it's going to work now. We know how it's going to work 100 years from now. We know that it's going to be processing trillions of dollars, you know, a hundred years from now, just like it's processing trillions of dollars right now. Everything about how Bitcoin works is 100% predictable. The price though is what you were thinking when you read the title of this video. Does anybody know what Bitcoin is going to do? You thought the price, where is the price going to go? Which is the perfectly logical thing to think because that affects your ability to buy stuff with Bitcoin in the future. And the answer to that question is no. Nobody knows exactly what Bitcoin's going to do. We can make best guesses based on input of what might happen, but we just don't know. And the reason we don't know is the same reason we cannot centrally plan an entire economy. Because you just can't centrally manage the price of a pencil, for example. The price of a pencil at Home Depot or Office Depot, I guess it' be Office Depot. The price of a pencil at Office Depot is dependent on millions of inputs, millions of data points. The price of lead, the price of graphite, the price of wood, the price of labor, the price of shipping, the price of GA, you know, oil, transportation, gasoline, air transport. The price of a pencil is completely impossible to predict perfectly in the future because you don't know what the input prices for a pencil are going to be in the future because that is constantly changing. I mean, there could be a major avalanche in some country that wipes out a major graphite mine and suddenly the graphite they use for the tips of the pencils suddenly doubles in price and suddenly all the pencils are 10 cents more expensive. And there's just no way of knowing that unless you had perfect knowledge of the future. Every market works that way. You can't predict the future price of the stock market or bonds or real estate or gold or silver or pre, you know, other precious metals, diamonds, wheat, corn, because you just don't know. The price of all of those is subject to supply and demand. And supply and demand is based on so many variables everywhere in the economy that it's completely impossible for anyone to know them all in advance. And so all you can do is make best guesses at what might happen and prepare accordingly. If you're trying to do that with Bitcoin, the number one place to go is James Czech with his newsletter check on chain. It costs $29 a month. He goes by checkmate uh or checkmate E with a Y on Twitter. Um, so he is the best predictor because he approaches things from historical behavior of Bitcoin holders entirely based on historical behavior of Bitcoin holders. And the best way of predicting how people who own Bitcoin, what they're going to do, whether people who don't buy it are going to buy it, whether people who already own it are going to sell it, and what percent of the people who own it at various price points are going to hold it versus sell it. The best way to predict that in the future is by looking at the way people have predict have operated in the past when Bitcoin's price has been behaving similarly which gives you some indications of what might happen. But of course it's not perfect. Even those are best guesses. Again, it's based like a weatherman or a weather woman trying to predict what's going to happen in the uh tomorrow's weather. They can get in the ballpark. You know, for example, I can tell you 100% it's not going to snow tomorrow in Mississippi. Even in November, there's just a 0% chance of snow tomorrow. Um, there's also a 0% chance that the temperature is going to be above 100°. So, yeah, that's helpful because if you didn't know how the weather worked and you woke up on November 18, what is it? November 20. November 20. You wake up on November 2020 and you have no idea if you should prepare for snow, sleet, ice, an ice storm, or temperatures as hot as the Sahara Desert. If you didn't know that every single day of every week, it would be hard to live your life and plan ahead. So, a weather person can tell you in broad strokes what might happen. Or they can tell you at least, hey, if the price in Mississippi tomorrow is 100 degrees, that is a record. It's never been that high. Statistically, it's very improbable on November 20. Okay. And it's also very improbable that we're going to have an ice storm on November 20 when the weather is as mild as it was today. That's just very unlikely tomorrow. So that's helpful. And James Czech is by far the best asset for that. On a bigger picture perspective, if you zoom out a little bit more than that to what's happening in the in the United States, to what degree do they need to, you know, print money, all of that, the best person on that is Jack Malers. J A C Morers. M A L L E R S. He has a weekly podcast which uh is on YouTube primarily. You can get it on podcast episodes but on YouTube you get the visuals and he usually has a lot of visuals uh charts and stuff and headlines and you know copy paste off Twitter and videos he's downloaded stuff like that. So it's better to watch that on uh YouTube as compared to on uh podcast because you get all the visuals. Jack Mor's if you if you zoom in the most James Czech is by far the best. If you zoom out to sort of the macro picture of what's going to happen over the coming, you know, weeks, months, and years, Jack Malers is the best. If you zoom zoom out even more than that to multi-year historical patterns, probably people like Lynn Alden, Lynn N, Alden, A Len, Lynn Alden, she is fantastic. Um, one of the most just levelheaded Bitcoiners. She is the least likely to predict, you know, apocalypse on the downside or euphoria on the upside. She just has a very level-headed approach to everything she does, including Bitcoin. Uh she is one of the best macro analysts. And there's others that are really good as well, like Luke Groman and others. Um but none of them know. I mean, including if you go back with any of them and look at predictions they've made in the past, and typically the smarter they are, the less they make predictions because the more they know that predictions are almost always wrong. No matter who makes them, they're almost always wrong. Um, you know, you can you can go back and you can see predictions from any of those people, even the best of the best of the best, and you find out that the what actually played out, maybe it was in the realm of possibilities of what they said might happen, but it's not what they thought was going to happen. And same with me, Bitcoin often does things that is not exactly what I thought was going to happen. You know, we just don't know. I mean, you just don't know. Uh the only way you could know is if you had perfect knowledge of in the case of Bitcoin, every single person, how much Bitcoin they owned, the circumstances, the likelihood that they had a medical emergency, the likelihood that they would have any type of other emergency, how much duress they were under for their, you know, mortgage payments on their house, whether they were trying to save a business from bankruptcy. You know, if you could perfectly predict the actions of every single human and you could perfectly predict the weather and all the other variables that affect whether somebody's going to slip and fall and break a leg and need to liquidate some Bitcoin to pay for medical bills. I mean, you just don't know that. Even if you interviewed all 8 billion people on Earth and found out exactly what they plan to do tomorrow, something's going to be different tomorrow than what some of those people thought, including it's going to rain some place that they were expecting a clear day. Someone's going to slip. Someone's going to fall. Somebody's going to break a leg unexpectedly. Somebody's going to sell $10,000 of Bitcoin to make sure that they can cover the price of a broken leg. And suddenly the price is going to dip farther than you forecast it was going to in just a microscopic way. I mean, it might affect the price of Bitcoin by one 100th of one penny, but yeah, that person who slipped and broke a leg cuz it was the stairs were wet instead of dry, it's a 1 one millionth of a percent impact on the price of Bitcoin. But when there's that many variables with 8 billion people all with assets all making decisions, it makes it impossible to predict the exact future behavior of anything. You can just predict general things. Generally, you can predict that the better money wins in the end. Bitcoin is better money. Bitcoin will win in the end. You can predict that humans will still be eating food in the future. So, investments that involve human produ humans producing food probably are not going to go to zero because we're not going to find a way that we don't need food. You know, same with clothing, same with shelter, same with, you know, real estate's not going to zero. You know, if you can forecast the population, you can figure out about how many houses the world is going to need and whether real estate is a good investment. Now, I would argue almost everything is overpriced right now. Um, but again, it's not going to zero. Real estate's not going to zero. Gold's not going well, Bitcoin's going going to demonetize gold, but it's probably not going to push gold to zero. It's just going to push gold's way higher. Uh, sorry, it's going to push gold's price way lower as Bitcoin's price goes way higher. Um, but again, none of that stuff is possible to know. All you can know is Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last five years, 10 years, you know, inception, however you want to measure it, Bitcoin has outperformed everything else. And only 5% of the world owns it. Everybody needs money. Everybody needs Bitcoin. 95% of the world is going to adopt it and hasn't yet. And even the 5% of the world who owns Bitcoin owns a very small percentage of it. And so it's a fantastic investment that I believe will, you know, radically outperform everything else you could possibly invest in. Those things are knowable, but exactly how Bitcoin is going to perform in exactly what time frame, what it's going to do tomorrow, next week, next quarter, that's just unknowable. So buy as much Bitcoin as you can, hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. In the long term, you'll be happy. And things like that are knowable. The near-term is just not. And literally, nobody knows the near- term. Not even Michael Sailor, who has bought more Bitcoin than any other human on Earth and buys tens of millions of dollars of Bitcoin a week. He doesn't even know what Bitcoin's price is, which is why he always buys Bitcoin regardless of the price, no matter what. Like, he's just always buying Bitcoin at all prices. He doesn't try to time it. He doesn't wait for dips. And I recommend the same for you. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can as fast as possible. Hold on to it for as long as possible. That is the only way to win. It's fable.