Can you “game the system” by planning to buy more bitcoin if the price dips? Good strategy?

Can you game the system by waiting for a price drop in the price of Bitcoin to buy cheaper, but then if it doesn't happen, buy Bitcoin at a more expensive price anyway? The answer is no. You can't game the system that way. Let me tell you why. Okay, first of all, I just uh did a video about the fact that there has to be an 84% chance that Bitcoin will drop to $80,000 to be worth missing out on the entire upside between here and a million dollars again. And then because the reason it's uh that probability is even there is because you might get it cheaper and therefore have more upside. But obviously the vast majority of probability is that it's not going to happen because the probability that Bitcoin is going to hit $80,000 is way less than 84%. So statistically it makes zero sense to wait and hope Bitcoin gets down that low. But some people think well but I could game the system. I could wait for $80,000 Bitcoin, but if it doesn't come, then I could buy back in Bitcoin on the momentum of $110,000 or $120,000. So essentially, once it became clear I wasn't going to get a dip, I just buy at a higher price anyway, and I still had a good shot of getting a dip. So, first of all, the math is still not in your favor. Sorry, but it's not. So yeah, the probability that it would need to hit $80,000 drops from 84% to somewhere between 41 and 52%. Because again, you're not missing up on the missing out on the entire rise up to $1 million. You're just missing out on a big chunk of it from $95,000 up to $110 or $120,000 and then getting back in the saddle. But even though statistically it's not as big of a loser as just all or nothing at $80,000, it's still a statistical loser. But there's a bigger problem which is that you're not going to execute that strategy properly even if you think you are. And the reason for that is that cryptocurrency buying platforms will not let you set a buy at a price above the current price. They are smart enough to realize that nobody wants to do that. Nobody goes into Coinbase right now and says, "I want to buy Bitcoin if it hits $80,000." Now, they'll let you do that. They're like, "Sure, you can set what's called a limit order. You can set up a limit order and say if Bitcoin hits $80,000, I want to buy so much of it, but it will not let you set up a buy to buy Bitcoin at $110,000 or $120,000 right now because that price is above the current market price. And nobody wants to set a trigger order to buy it more expensively than they can right now. So, what people do who try to game the market this way is they say, "Okay, I'm going to set up an order at $80,000." Well, first of all, they don't even do that. People who are waiting for a dip almost never have the courage to set up a buy order that triggers automatically. So what they do is they say, "I'm going to I'm I'm going to commit to myself." Now, if they actually committed to themselves, they'd go in Coinbase or River and set up a limit order that triggered automatically at $80,000. But they're not going to do that because they don't have the courage to do that, which is why this strategy fails. I'm going to explain the other part of the reason the strategy consistently fails. But okay, so the first thing is they're going to tell themselves that they're going to buy it if it hits 80. But the problem is if the price drops, it's going to be scary. And if the price hits 80, they're going to suddenly decide that it's falling so fast that it needs to hit 75 or it needs to hit 70. The short take is they're going to keep dropping the minimum price uh that it has to hit before they pull the trigger. And the price is always going to be a price lower than it actually is, and they're never going to pull the trigger. Okay. Okay, so the first the first way the strategy fails is they don't actually set up an automatic buy order. So when their magic price gets hit, they don't actually buy it. Or if they do set up an automatic buy order, they go in there and cancel it as the price is dropping toward it because they freak out and think the price is going to drop lower and they don't want it to trigger automatically. So this strategy fails consistently because people fail to set up an automatic buy order at their target price. And even if they do set up an automatic buy order at their target price, they chickenen out and they go cancel the buy order before it hits their target price because it's falling. And when the price is falling, it's scary. And so they go cancel the automatic buy order. Okay, but let's assume they actually do have an automatic buy order set up and they don't chickenen out. But what happens is then it doesn't hit the automatic buy order, which means now you're committed to part B of your plan, which is to buy anyway if the price rises to 110 or $120,000. The problem is you are now psychologically committed to $80,000. That is the price you already decided you were going to buy more Bitcoin, even though, again, you probably weren't because it probably wasn't going to hit that number. And even if it did, you were probably going to chicken it out and not buy it anyway, which is what always happens. But anyway, let's assume you are now supposed to execute plan B, which is buy the Bitcoin at 110 or 120,000 because it became clear that the dip you were waiting for never came. The problem is that part of your strategy is going to break down also. And the reason for that is you're going to keep waiting for that $80,000 dip. When the price bounces back up, all of your psychology is going to tell you, well, it didn't dip right now, but it's still going to. It's going to spike up to 110 and then it's going to dip down to 80,000. This is just a temporary bounce. This is a dead cat bounce. And if I wait long enough, I'm going to get my $80,000. So, the price is going to hit 110 and you're not going to buy it at 110 because you're going to think that the dip down to 80 could still happen. Plus, at this point, you are psychologically committed to $80,000 Bitcoin and now the price is 110. And that seems really expensive. Even though in retrospect back from a million dollars, it's really cheap by comparison, but again, it seems expensive because you psychologically were locked onto that $80,000 that never happened. Okay? So, you don't buy it at 110. Then it goes to 120 and you don't buy it at 120, which was your third, you know, second backup plan. Your plan C, you know, plan A was to buy it at 80,000. If it didn't hit plan A, you were going to buy it at 110, which is plan B. Now, you're on plan C, which is you didn't buy it at 110. And so you've told yourself you're going to buy it at 120 because at 120 you're pretty sure it's not going to go back down to 80,000. But you're not going to buy it at 120 either because remember none of the platforms will let you set up an automatic buy order at a price higher than the current price. Meaning you have to commit to yourself that you're going to do it and you actually have to follow through. But you're not going to follow through because everything inside your body is going to say, "I should be waiting for the $80,000 dip that never came." Or maybe I should not buy the Bitcoin after all because now it's $120,000 and I could have bought it at 95. So you're going to sit on the sidelines. This happens over and over and over. So the strategy of So let me summarize this. The strategy of waiting for a dip and then planning to buy anyway if the dip never happens is a losing strategy because it either never hits your buy price or you don't buy it even if it does hit your buy price or you don't buy it on the rebound even though you committed you were going to because it seemed expensive. This happens constantly. People are cheating themselves out of Bitcoin all the time. So, I had a friend who had a bunch of Bitcoin, thousands of Bitcoin, and once he had traded it away on all sorts of random coins, he still had 100 Bitcoin left. Now, 100 Bitcoin right now is worth $10 million. But he sold 97 of his 100 Bitcoin, all but three. He sold them at $100 per coin, because the price had been volatile, and he was planning to buy them back at a price cheaper than $100 per coin. So, he sold, let's call it 100 Bitcoin. There's actually 97 of the hundred, but he sold 100 Bitcoin, planning to buy them back at a price cheaper than $100. But the price instead of going from $100 down so he could buy it back cheaper, went up. And the next time he checked, it was at $300. And you would think, oh, he made a mistake. He would recognize the mistake, but at least it's $300 Bitcoin and he could still own a bunch of $300 Bitcoin. But of course, he did exactly what I would have done, exactly what you would have done, and exactly what everyone would have done, which is he did not want to buy $300 Bitcoin because he had just sold $100 Bitcoin. And now it seemed triple its current the price he had thought it was even worth when he sold it. So, he was going to sell it and buy it back cheaper, which is the same as waiting for a dip. Whether you already own the Bitcoin and you sell it, waiting for a dip, or whether you don't own the Bitcoin and you're waiting for a dip to buy it in the first place, the psychology is is the same, which is when the price moves against you, meaning it goes up while you're waiting for a dip, your psychology tells you it's now expensive and you should not buy, which is exactly what he did. So, he never bought that Bitcoin back. So, if you fast forward to today, he owns three Bitcoin. He could have owned a hundred. He started out with more than 3,000 Bitcoin before he uh traded them for Dogecoin. Uh and then of course Dogecoin, you know, crashed and he lost the vast majority of all the wealth that he would have right now disappeared with Dogecoin. And the rest of it, the vast majority of the rest of it, 97% of the rest of it, um was uh lost on a strategy of selling the Bitcoin, waiting for a dip, planning to buy it back. Dip never came, never bought the rebound, and now he's got three Bitcoin instead of 100. uh that has played out with so many people in so many situations. It constantly happens. So, do not play that game. Do not wait for a dip planning to either buy the dip because you won't or it'll never hit your dip price or planning to buy the rebound if the dip never happens because you're not going to do that because when it rebounds, it's going to seem expensive and you're still going to be waiting for the dip that never happened and you're just going to cheat yourself out of a lot of Bitcoin. Many millions of people have gone before you. Many millions of people have cheated themselves out of Bitcoin that they later regretted not buying. And every one of them came up with some clever plan to beat the system when what they should have done is buy as much Bitcoin as they could and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. The only strategy that consistently 100% wins. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. That is the formula. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Buy it as soon as possible. Hold on to it for as long as possible. And it's just that simple. Do not outsmart yourself and end up with way less Bitcoin. Happens all the time. Please be kind to yourself. Buy the Bitcoin and sit on it. It's that simple.