Do you feel like you bought too high? This video is for you!

Are you freaking out about your Bitcoin right now? Do you feel like you bought way too much at way too high a price and you're just chasing this thing down to zero? If you feel like any of those feelings, this video is for you. Okay, so what happens is people buy Bitcoin, their first big purchase of Bitcoin tends to be when the price is high. Why? Because that is what everyone does with every investment. Nobody wants to buy an investment when it's tanking, especially if it's their first buy because they're new to the asset, etc., etc. So, my first Bitcoin B buy was when it was expensive in 2017. It was around $12,200 using round numbers, which happens to be someone reached out to me this morning and said, "Hey, my first big Bitcoin purchase was at $122,000." And I thought, you know what, that's interesting because my first big Bitcoin price, the price had gone up uh, you know, way up in 2017 and it had come down a little bit, but 12,200 was, you know, really high. Like the price was only higher than that for a very short period of time back in 2017. And what did the price do immediately when I bought it at 12,200? Well, it dropped to 9,600. These are just estimated numbers that happen to line up exactly with the person I was talking to. So, of all the Bitcoin they bought, they bought uh 89% of the Bitcoin they own now at 122,000. Then they bought an additional 8% at 96,000 and then an additional 3% at uh 86,000. So 122 9686. Classic sort of a lot of people are in this exact same position. Okay. So again, I was in this exact same position in 2017. And what happens is you have a choice, right? The number one thing you don't want to do is vomit your Bitcoin out onto the market at a loss because that is what creates boom bust cycles in any asset, not unique to Bitcoin. And those are the only people who lose money on Bitcoin, are people who buy it at a number that they perceive to be high. Now, in the future, that number will look low, but at the time it they perceive it to be high. the mic the price drops, they buy some more a couple times, then they just I mean they freak out and capitulate at the bottom. And usually, you know, the price has gotten as low as it's going to get when all the people who bought at higher prices capitulate and they all sell at one time at a lower price. And you can actually see this because I follow James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst. And James Czech talks about this a lot. He's like, "Look, market bottoms are put in when the people who bought high, who bought too many high too too many coins at too high a price, uh, you know, capitulate at lower prices. They just finally they can't take it anymore. They're white knuckling through and they finally capitulate. They're like, I can't take it. I'm freaking out." You know, they're on, you know, they need to be talked off the ledge and they're like, "I just can't take this anymore." And so they sell all their Bitcoin at a big loss. So they buy in with the, you know, the the major purchase at 122 and they sell it all at 72 and they take a massive loss. Meanwhile, people like me are accumulating all the way down because if you've been around long enough, you know that Bitcoin always comes back and always the initial purchase price looks like a really good price in the rearview mirror. So for example, is anybody complaining to me that I bought Bitcoin at 12,200? No, because 12,200 sounds really cheap right now, but for the next like two or three years, which again, Bitcoin was way more volatile back then and it took a lot longer to get to tops and bottoms than it does now. Uh for at least a year or two, for all of 2018, all of 2019, I could have bought it less than that. For probably two and a half years, I could have bought Bitcoin at a cheaper price than the price that I first paid for it. Now, again, that was temporary. That was back then. I don't think there's going to be anywhere close to two and a half years where the price, you know, price is down. But, uh, back then, Bitcoin was just much more volatile and much more uh, you know, the the the cycles took a lot longer. Um, but anyway, 12,200 sounds like a great price. Then I bought more at 9,600, more at 86 8,600. I think the cheapest I ever bought was 6,400. Now, what did I do at 6,400? First of all, I never sold that Bitcoin. The the Bitcoin I bought at 12,200 and I never sold it. So I never capitulated which means after a couple years I was up on my investment and it started looking like a genius investment but that took a couple years in this case. I don't think it's going to take a couple years to reclaim 122 but you know it's also not going to happen overnight either. Uh but I made the mistake. So I did not make the first mistake which is capitulating and selling. That is how you lose money. I did not make that mistake but I did make the mistake of not chasing Bitcoin farther down. I had told myself when I was buying Bitcoin at 9,000, I was like, "Look, if it drops to half this price, if it drops to 4,500, I'm going to buy a bunch of Bitcoin, like a bunch." Um, and it dropped to 4,500. And I didn't because I felt just like the person who felt who reached out to me this morning felt where they're like, "Look, uh, the price is dropping. Like, what am I even doing? I'm buying more of this assets that's dropping. I already own a lot of this asset at a price that's a lot higher than the price it is now." I felt all of those same feelings back in 20 2018 because I bought initially a relatively high price in 2017 at 12,200. Um, in fact, my buy price initially would have been even higher. I tried to buy at about 16,000, which was like barely below the all-time high in 2017. I tried to buy, but my bank kicked back uh my initial purchase, and by the time I got it replaced, the price had dropped to 12,200. So if the price if my purchase had gone through as planned using 10x numbers from today, it would have been the equivalent of purchasing at 160,000 rather than, you know, 122, which equates, you know, 10 to one back down to 12,200. So again, the number one mistake you can make is capitulating on the Bitcoin you have, meaning you give up. You throw you throw in the title towel, you sell what you have, it's over, you know, you're done with Bitcoin, and then everybody else benefits but you. And literally, you were the person who gifted a bunch of your wealth to the world by buying it high and selling it low, which is the opposite of anything you ever want to do with investing. So, but what I should have done is I should have bought more all the way down. Um, had I bought more all the way down, I would own a lot of Bitcoin. That's a lot cheaper than 6,400. But as it was, 6,400 was the cheapest I ever bought Bitcoin. And I could have had for an extended period of time I could have bought a lot more for a lot cheaper and I didn't. Um so I I thankfully I did not make the first mistake which is actually selling but I did make the second mistake which is not buying more. So if you're in that position first of all again it's normal. Virtually everyone in Bitcoin started 2013, 2017, 2021 or 2025. Almost nobody got into Bitcoin between those years. The reason is each of those years were were years that Bitcoin was going up and people buy stuff for the first time when it's going up. It's very rare you run into somebody that bought their first Bitcoin in 2015 or 16 or 2018 or 19 or 20. I mean, those were years when Bitcoin was not on a huge upswing and so very rarely does people buy their initial significant purchase at those prices. Okay? So, if you're in that position, it's normal. Also understand that in the future, the same will be true. In the future, when your Bitcoin that you bought at 122,000 is up by 10x, someone will buy it from you for 1.22 million, which is 10x where we are here. And guess what? That $1.22 22 million per bitcoin that you're going to be selling in the future. The person who's buying that in, I don't know, 2034, pick a number, some, you know, 10 years from now or whatever, 2036. That person buying it will be buying their first Bitcoin expensive. Why? Because in the past, everybody bought it when it was expensive for their first buy. In the future, in the present, everybody buys it when it's expensive in the present. In the future, the people who are buying Bitcoin for the first time will be buying it at 1.22 22 million and then the price will crash down to I don't know 900,000 something I don't know and they'll be freaking out because they'll be like I bought Bitcoin at 1.22 million now it's 900,000 you know I'm 20 or 30% down on my investment I can't believe I did this and some of them will capitulate they will sell they will buy at 1.22 million they will sell at 900,000 and but guess what a bunch of bitcoins are going to get bought for above 1.2 2 million and you, my friend, will be one of the people selling it to them because again, you're like, "Okay, I'm going to buy, you know, whatever you want to buy." You're you want to buy a vacation house. You want to send your kids to college, whatever it is. At some point, you're going to be selling some of that Bitcoin, and the people buying it for the very first time will be buying it at expensive prices, and you will be selling it at expensive prices, and then the price will drop again because that's what happens with all assets. It doesn't matter if it's Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, you know, you name it. Any of the Magnificent Seven stocks, gold, silver, everybody makes their first big buy of that asset when it's going up, which tends to be in retrospect something that looks like high prices. Now, you may be thinking, "Well, Joel, if you know this and you've been around this stuff for eight or nine years, why don't you only advocate people buy Bitcoin when it's on sale?" The answer is because I don't know what on sale is. Back at 126,000, James Czech said, "This is definitely not the top." And again, he's the best there is. He's the best Bitcoin analyst that exists in the world. And he was like, "The good thing we know about 126 is all the indicators say this is not the top of a price cycle." Well, guess what? He was wrong. And he's the best there is. And he will be the first to admit that he's guessing. And I'm guessing. So, it's like, if I'm only going to advocate for people to buy Bitcoin when I think it's cheap, nobody knows when that is. I thought 122 was cheap. I have Bitcoin I bought at 122. I have Bitcoin I bought at 124. I don't think I've bought Bitcoin above 124, but it was only above 124 for like part of a day. Like it was practically not even high. So basically, I owned Bitcoin that was almost as high as you could have bought it. Again, if I thought it was going to go down, I would have waited. But nobody knows. So in retrospect, back in 2017, if somebody had come to me and said, "I'll tell you when to buy Bitcoin. just wait for it to be cheap. I never would have bought it because I never would have bought that first Bitcoin at at 12,200. And then when the price started dropping, I would have said, "Well, why would I be buying it now? You know, if it's dropping, something must be wrong with it. The party must be over. I must have been the last person to buy expensive Bitcoin before it goes to zero." And that's the way everybody thinks. Um, so, uh, there's never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. If you're patient, it always eventually goes up. and your initial purchase that sounds and feels and looks expensive will always eventually prove to uh you know to be a good a good investment. Okay, knowing all of that, the question is why do we not just dollar cost average DCA? Why don't we just buy the same amount of Bitcoin every single uh every day or every week? Usually it's weekly. Most people dollar cost average weekly. Um and the answer is there's multiple problems with that. First of all, all of the research says that 89% of the time lumpsum purchases outperform dollar cost averaging. Something like that. Different studies do different things, but a ridiculously high percent of the time, lump sum purchases, meaning a big slug upfront, outperforms dollar cost averaging. only under rare circumstances when you start right near the price at the top of a price cycle which is impossible to predict and then you dollar cost average all the way through the trough does it outperform lump sum purchases so in general I can't advocate dollar cost averaging when all of the research says generally that underperforms yes it has lower volatility so it's a little easier to hang on but it generally underperforms so I advocate for the strategy that generally does better which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. And something like 89% of the time you end up ahead doing that. Um, of course that does require you not to capitulate, not to dump all your Bitcoin and vomit them on the market at the bottom of a price cycle. But again, I trust that y'all can figure out how to hold on to your Bitcoin and not vomit it into the market. Um so if if lumps on purchasing outperforms dollar cost averaging for the vast majority of the people the vast majority of the time then that's a better strategy most for most people most of the time which is why I don't advocate dollar cost averaging also with dollar cost averaging you have a problem which is okay over what time period and are you going to put half of your money in upfront and half of it dollar cost averaging or are you going to dollar cost average all of it again nobody has a good answer to that people are like oh just dollar cost average it's like well over what time period? Well, they have no idea. Well, that works great if you get a paycheck every two weeks and you put a $100 in every week for the rest of your life. Well, that's great, but most people are not in that situation. Most people have $5,000, $10,000. They have some amount that they want to invest sooner rather than later. And nobody has a good answer for, okay, if somebody has $10,000 today and they want to buy Bitcoin, someone's like, oh, well, just dollar cost average. It's like, okay, for how long? You can't just say dollar cost average without giving a time period. And of course, nobody has a good time period because six months, I mean, if you had started the middle of last year and dollar cost average, you would have basically dollar cost averaged the most expensive Bitcoin of the entire cycle. So, there's just no good answer for how long to dollar cost average. Uh, and again, the research all says that lump sum purchasing outperforms uh dollar cost averaging. It just does. Uh, so anyway, you're not alone. If you bought expensive Bitcoin, now you're feeling bad about it. Welcome to the club. This is how all investing works. If you had ignored Bitcoin and bought something else instead, you probably would buy gold or silver at the top or Tesla or Amazon or Microsoft or Google or Nvidia or Facebook at the top because again, that's when people buy things for the first time. And anyway, all you got to do is hold on. If you buy the right assets and you hold on to them long enough, it doesn't matter. Again, it just doesn't matter in my case that I bought a bunch of Bitcoin at 12,200 and I could have had it for half that because guess what? I didn't know. Nobody knew. I'm just glad I bought as much as I did. And if you bought Bitcoin at 122 or 124,000, at some point you will be glad you bought that Bitcoin. It'll look like a genius. It just might take, you know, some number of months or years till we get there. So, uh, let me know if you have any questions. I'm here to help. I've been through this. So has everybody else who's ever invested in anything. The number one thing is just do not vomit your Bitcoin onto the marketplace right now. Do not take a loss selling your Bitcoin unless you desperately have to to save the life of a loved one or something like that. But, you know, from an investing perspective, hold tight. It'll be fine. Bitcoin's done this a bunch of times and this is relatively shallow compared to the past. So, if you want real volatility, you had to get buy Bitcoin prior to 2024. If you bought Bitcoin after January 1st of 2024 or January 10th of 2024 when the Bitcoin exchange traded funds, ETFs were released, that was real volatility. Everything prior to January 10th of 2024 was real volatility. I mean, huge swings up and down. Uh this is nothing compared to that. And if you want an example of the single day that I bought the most Bitcoin in my life at a single point, it was in 2021. again, you know, people always buy the most in those years. And the price changed by 42% in one day. One day, the price changed 42% in a single day. And that's the day I was trying to buy Bitcoin. And I bought it closer to the top of that price range than to the bottom of that 42% price range. Um, so anyway, everything will be fine in the long run. It all works out. Uh, if you're in that position, welcome to the club. So is a gazillion other people. And in the long run, you'll just be glad you did it. That's always the way it ends up turning out in the end. So I'm here to help you. Feel free to message me directly, text message, Facebook Messenger. Happy to talk anyone off the cliff that needs talking off the cliff. I am here to serve. Just let me know.