EVEN I can’t predict if Bitcoin‘s price (neither can you)

00:01 Even I can't predict if Bitcoin's price 00:03 is high or low or feels high or feels 00:05 low or is about to go higher or lower. 00:08 And if I can't, you can't. And Michael 00:10 Sailor can't. If Michael Sailor can't 00:12 predict it, nobody can because he's 00:14 bought more Bitcoin than anyone else on 00:15 the planet. Literally. Micro Strategy, 00:18 his company is sitting on 77 billion 00:20 dollar of Bitcoin. And he regularly buys 00:23 Bitcoin and then it dips. In fact, it 00:25 seems like almost every time Michael 00:26 Sailor announces a buy of Bitcoin, when 00:29 he announces the buy on Monday morning, 00:31 the price is actually lower than the 00:33 average acquisition price in his 00:35 announcement. So, he'll announce on 00:37 Monday morning that, hey, Micro Strategy 00:39 bought Bitcoin at a, you know, however 00:42 many Bitcoin at $118,000 per coin. I 00:45 checked the price of Bitcoin and it's 00:46 $116,000 per coin. Meaning, if he had 00:49 waited, he could have bought it at 116. 00:51 But he got $77 billion of Bitcoin 00:53 because he didn't play those games 00:55 because if you wait, you miss out. The 00:57 you never hit the price that it was 00:58 going to be. Now, here's the example 01:00 that I would give for why I can't time 01:02 the market. I regularly post on Facebook 01:04 about Bitcoin based on my enthusiasm 01:07 level. So, there are quite a few posts, 01:10 if you look back, where I am all excited 01:12 and post something like, "It feels like 01:14 Bitcoin's about to run higher." And 01:18 maybe onethird of the time I'm right, 01:20 but it seems like every time I post 01:22 something bullish, which it would means 01:24 optimistic, the price dips. The most 01:27 recent example of this was last week. At 01:29 the end of last week, Bitcoin was 01:30 hovering around 109, $110,000. 01:33 And I was like, "This is crazy. It's 01:36 going higher. I know it's going higher." 01:38 So, I composed a post for Facebook 01:41 basically saying, "Hey, it feels like 01:42 Bitcoin's about to go higher." And then 01:44 I was like, "You know what? Every time I 01:46 post one of these things, it goes lower. 01:47 So, I'm not going to post anything. 01:49 Every time I post that it's about to go 01:51 higher, then inevitably it dips before 01:54 it goes higher. It always does the 01:56 opposite of what I think. Of course, it 01:58 always eventually goes up, but in the 01:59 short term, it always seems to do the 02:01 opposite. But when I was really planning 02:03 to post all capital letters, you should 02:05 buy Bitcoin right now at $110,000 02:08 and it's up 10% in literally a week, it 02:11 always does exactly what you want. But 02:12 in the short term, it always seems to do 02:14 the opposite. So, I did not post 02:16 anything and of course I don't post 02:18 anything and the next day it it jumps to 02:19 114 and the next day after that it's 118 02:22 and the next day after that it's 122 and 02:24 I'm like of course the one time where I 02:26 actually exercise some restraint the 02:28 price goes up 10%. But you know there's 02:32 never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. I'm 02:34 always endorsing now to be a good time 02:36 to buy Bitcoin. So that would have 02:39 implied that last week was a good time 02:40 to buy Bitcoin because I always say it 02:42 is. If you went back and evaluated every 02:45 single post I've ever made, you'd find 02:47 that there's not a great correlation in 02:50 the near term to what exactly Bitcoin's 02:52 about to do. All that matters is the 02:54 long term. Now, another example of this 02:56 is somebody messaged me earlier this 02:57 week and said, "Hey, James Czech said 02:60 the best time to set up a recurring 03:01 buy," which is called dollar cost 03:03 averaging, DCA, a recurring buy on River 03:06 or wherever Coinbase, wherever you're 03:08 doing it, River is much better because 03:09 there's no fees on River for recurring 03:10 buys. He said, "Look, James check said, 03:13 "The best time to set up recurring buys, 03:15 if you look at the entire history of 03:16 Bitcoin, is on Friday mornings between 7 03:19 and 8:00 p.m." He's like, "That's the 03:21 best time. If you're going to pick a 03:22 random time in the week to set up a 03:25 recurring buy, you might as well pick 03:27 between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Friday 03:30 mornings, Central time." This person 03:32 said, "Look, I have it set up where it 03:34 auto buys between 7 and 8 a.m. on Friday 03:37 mornings, but it always seems to dip 03:39 right after I buy. should I change it? 03:41 And my answer was, "No, don't change 03:43 it." Because as soon as you change it, 03:46 it's going to go back to working 03:47 perfectly between 7 and 8 a.m. on Friday 03:50 mornings, central time. You just can't 03:52 win the timing game. No matter when you 03:53 set up your recurring buy, it's going to 03:55 feel to you like the price always dips 03:58 right after your buy is triggered. Every 03:60 time you're looking at your buy, 04:02 literally no matter what time of the 04:03 week, every time you're looking at it, 04:05 you're going to check the price of 04:06 Bitcoin and think, "Dang it, it's 04:08 somehow lower than the price I bought at 04:11 again." Now, statistically, that's not 04:12 true. Statistically, it'll be lower than 04:14 the price you bought it four times, but 04:16 then the fifth time it'll be way higher 04:18 than the price you bought it, which more 04:19 than makes up the four down times. But 04:21 enough of the time, there's a huge price 04:23 rise after you bought it. So, for 04:24 example, last Friday between 7 and 8 04:26 a.m. I don't know what the price was, 04:28 probably in the ballpark of 110 or 04:30 something like that, and you're up 12%. 04:32 So, maybe you went five weeks in a row 04:34 where every time you it seemed like it 04:36 was a 1% below your buy price, and then 04:39 boom, one time it's 12% above your buy 04:41 price, which cancels out the other four 04:43 or five times. You can't play that game. 04:45 I can't time it. Michael Sailor can't 04:46 time it. You can't time it. All we can 04:48 do is buy as much Bitcoin as we can. 04:50 Hold on to it for as long as conceivably 04:51 possible. Don't play the timing games 04:54 and zoom out. In the long term, it goes 04:56 way up and that's all that matters. The 04:58 long term is all that matters and that 05:00 is what investing is like.