How BEAR markets END 🚀🚀🚀

how bare markets end. What's a bare market? It's a down market in any asset. Doesn't have to be Bitcoin. Could be stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, doesn't matter. Bare markets are when things are down, pessimistic. Um, and let's first start by talking about why do things up end up in uh bare markets? Well, typically assets end up in a bare market because they were in a bull market and the price overshot the price at which the market demand uh could sustain the price which resulted in a market correction which meant the price undersshot the sustainable price. Now the problem is nobody knows in advance what the sustainable price of an asset is based on the market demand at any given time. If you knew that, you would know if the asset is expensive or cheap. But there there's no way to know that in advance. There's only way a way to know that in retrospect. So when you look back at the history of an asset over an extended period of time, you can tell when an asset is above or below its historical trend line. The problem is you don't know what that historical trend line is in advance. So, for example, it was just as likely that Bitcoin would go from 126,000 to 150 to 200,000 um in the first 6 months of this year. That does not look like it's happening right now. Um but if so, the trend line would have said, "Oh, well, it was above and below and above and below, but you know, if you draw the trend line right through it, the trend line would have been at a, you know, $175,000 at the midpoint of this year." as it is the trend line's going to look more like I don't know 75 85 90,000 whatever it's going to be at the midpoint of this year nobody knows in advance right so because we don't know in advance a bull market as James Czech says is when too many people buy too much of the asset at too high a price when that price is above what the market can sustain based on market demand bare markets happen because there is a price correction there's not enough buyers to hold the price that high based on market demand. So there's a price correction and the price correction results in the price undersshooting that average trend line and then it stays down there until the bull market is over. So what I want to describe in this video is why the the the bare market, which is a down market, why that market ends, what it feels like, and sort of play byplay how that works. Let me get a drink and I'll explain it. Okay, so we are in a Bitcoin bare market. The low price was $60,000. Could go lower. Could undercut $60,000 sometime in the coming months. We don't know. Good chance that 60,000 was the low. We don't know. Nobody knows. But regardless, uh, you know, James Czech says, "Look, if we do undercut $60,000, it's probably not more than, you know, a handful of percentage points. You know, Bitcoin's on sale right now at all prices is what James Jack says. Okay, so we're in a bare market. Everybody agrees we're in a bare market right now, which means Bitcoin's on sale, great time to buy it, etc., etc., etc. Okay, now the way you to understand, and I've used this analogy before, is an elevator. It's an elevator that has only two buttons on it. Uh, now imagine the elevator in a 1,000story building. a 1000story building where each level represents $1,000. So theoretically at the top of this thousandstory building is Bitcoin's price of a million dollars. But we're going to knock off three zeros and just say, okay, you know, at 126 it was at the 126th floor at 126,000. At 71,000, Bitcoin's at the 71st floor. It got as low as floor 6060 back on February 5th. That's the analogy we're going to use. So imagine this elevator is amaz is is massive and that currently 5% of the world's population is in this elevator and that represents the 5% of the world's population that owns any Bitcoin. The other 95% of the world's population owns zero Bitcoin and most of the people on the elevator which is only 5% of the world's population most of them own a relatively small amount $50, $200. It is not like me 100% of their liquid assets. I am in a very very very m very rare micro subset of that 5% that literally has 100% of my liquid assets in Bitcoin. The vast majority of people of those 5% have a relatively small amount of Bitcoin in. Okay. So this elevator, if you're one of the 95% of the people outside the elevator, there's only one button you can push on any floor, which is the I want to buy Bitcoin, the elevator should go up. There's like a big green button on every floor. You can buy Bitcoin on the 60th floor, the 72nd floor, the 71st floor, right now 71. You could you could you could buy it as high as as floor 126 last year, although it was only there like 5 minutes. So realistically, the price never really went above about 124. Regardless, if you're outside the elevator, you can buy Bitcoin by pushing the green button outside the elevator and saying, "I want to get on. I want to go get on and go up." If you are inside the elevator, you have two choices. If you're 100% maxed out on Bitcoin like I am, you can really only push one button, which is the the red sell button, because unless you want to do a Bitcoin backed loan or something like that, which I've dabbled with a little bit, but I don't recommend it. Then really, you're 100%. You can't buy more Bitcoin because you don't have any more US dollars and you don't have any more assets you could possibly buy Bitcoin with. So that's the position I'm in. So, if you're inside the elevator and you have anything that could be turned into Bitcoin, like US dollars, then you have two buttons. A green button that says I want more Bitcoin, elevator go up, or a red button that says elevator go down, I want to get off. So, if you're inside and you push the red button, which is the down button, it says I want to go down and get off. If you push push the green button inside the elevator, it means I want to buy more and go up. Okay, so those are the only two buttons. Okay. So, when an asset is up at the 126th floor, there's not enough people pushing the green button to sustain it up there based on the market demand, based on a million different factors. So, the elevator starts to drop. That drop scares people. As the drop scares people from 126 to 125 to 121 to 118. It scares people and they start mashing the red button. They're like, I don't like this. I got butterflies in my stomach. I'm panicking. Get me off the elevator at any price. Out. Out. Out. I want to be off. I want to be off. They're mashing that red button from the inside the elevator and so the price keeps falling. Well, as it falls, there are people outside the elevator who are like, "Ooh, Bitcoin at 115, Bitcoin at 112." They're buying, right? So, the the price is bouncing up and down because as it drops, people outside the elevator are saying, "Ooh, I can get on the elevator at 110,000. I'll do that." Orund, you know, whatever. At $95,000, I sold a bunch of gold and silver I bought back in 2017 and bought more Bitcoin because at 95,000 I didn't know how low it was going to go. I didn't know it was going to go to 60,000. I didn't want to risk it. I wanted more of my assets in Bitcoin. So, at the 95th floor, I bought hundreds of thousands of dollars of more Bitcoin by liquidating all of the gold and silver I had. Okay? And that's when I went to 100% Bitcoin. One second. Okay, so that's happening. So the reason Bitcoin did not go below $60,000 6 is because at $60,000 a ton of people were mashing the green button saying, "Wow, Bitcoin is super on sale at 60,000. Give me some of that Bitcoin." People on the elevator were mashing the green button saying, "I want more Bitcoin than however much I own." And people outside the elevator that own zero Bitcoin were mashing the green button saying, "I want to get on this elevator. If I can get on this elevator at $60,000, I got a lot of upside between here and floor 1000 or any floor between 60,000 and uh and floor 1000 uh or I should say 60,000 and a million dollars per of price. We're using floors. So, it's the equivalent of floor 60 versus a,000, right? A lot of upside there. So, uh that's why the price didn't go any lower than 60 is there's just too many people mashing the green button saying, "I want more Bitcoin. Buy more Bitcoin. Buy by it." cancels out the people who are selling and the price stabilizes and goes back up. So in a bare market, you get this grind. This grind typically lasts between 6 and 12 months. In that grind, what is happening is every time the price starts to rise, there's people who are on the elevator that want to get off that are saying, "Oo, I, you know, maybe they bought Bitcoin at 90,000, 82,000, 110,000." as it rises, they're like, "Oo, I'm I'm freaked out about this elevator. I don't know what Bitcoin is. I don't know why I own it. If I can get 71, 72, 76,000, I want to get off the elevator." So, people like me who have 100% of my net worth in Bitcoin are like, "Guys, can everybody stop selling, please, so we can just go up because long term, the demand is there. It's going to be fine, right?" But there are too many people who bought too much Bitcoin at too high a price that are too freaked out and want to get off the elevator. Remember, this elevator's got 5% of the world's population on it. So that's 400 million people. So of the 400 million people on the elevator, and we're using round numbers here, 8 billion total people in the world. So that's the equivalent of 400 million people on the elevator, 7.6 billion people off the elevator. Again, round numbers, 8 billion people, 5% on, 95% off. Right? So there are 400 million people on the elevator. And every time the price tries to rise, enough of those 400 million people try to get off the elevator that it pushes the price back down. So you go down at 60,000, you go up to 70,000, then you go down to 65, then you go to 71, then you go down to 66, then you go to 75, then you go down to 64, then you go down up to 72, then you go down to 68, then you go up to 71 again, then you're down to 65 again. And it does that and it grinds and it grinds and it grinds. And the reason it does that is every time it starts going down, people hit that green button. They want to get on the elevator cuz it's getting cheaper, which pushes it back up. And as it goes up, there are people that have been holding that bought Bitcoin somewhere between 75,000 80,000. Actually, most of the people that that are pushing the button wanting to get off bought the Bitcoin between 82,000 and I don't know 110 uh whatever. Pick, you know, whatever those numbers are. So that is the dynamic you're dealing with. you're dealing with every time the price tries to go up, then there's too many people mashing the button saying, "Oo, I bought Bitcoin at 82. If I could just get 72 out, I'd get out." Right? Something like that. And so it goes to 72 and all these $82,000 people are taking a loss to get off the elevator at 72 because they didn't want to get off at 68 because it felt like too much of a loss. So they're getting out with less of a loss, lower. That's basically what's happening now. There's just too many people too freaked out and all of that. All right. So, how does the bare market end if if a bull market if an up market uh happens because too many people buy too much of the asset at too high a price and there's not enough demand to sustain it at that price. Therefore, it goes through a price correction undersshoots whatever fair value is. That's a number that is not knowable. We don't know at any given time what the exact adjusted price of Bitcoin would be based on market demand. All we know is the price and sometimes the price overshoots, sometimes it undershoots uh the average. We don't know what the average is until in the future when we average it out. We don't know in advance. If you did, you could make billions of dollars trading on Wall Street if you knew the actual, you know, average price uh of if you knew the average price of what every asset should be today. You would just buy all the ones that are on sale, sell all the ones that are above that price, and boom, you'd make billions of dollars. But nobody knows what that price is in retrospect. Um for example during 2008 2009 General Motors the price was dropping dropping dropping dropping dropping and a lot of people were saying ooh the price is below what we we will look back on and and say is the historical average. Well it turned out they went bankrupt because the price went to zero. Conversely there's assets like Tesla where the price is going up and up and up and up and people are like wow that thing is so crazy overvalued. were selling it and then it turns into a trillion dollar company and they sold it when it was worth a h 100red billion and they missed out on a hund you know thousand% return you know making 10 times their money. So it can happen both ways. Okay. So a bare market ends because you grind sideways for 6 or 12 months and we just passed the 6 months mark. The the market high was uh October 6 of 2005. Uh so on April 6 which was two days ago was the six-month mark. all of October, November, December, January, February, March, um, and then April, April 6. So from October to 6 to April 6 is six months. So we are in that final between 6 and 12 months when bare markets typically end. Could be tomorrow. James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, says probably is more likely between May and August. Um, as opposed to like tomorrow and April, but we don't know. Probably. If you look at the bell curve of Bitcoin historical bare markets, we're in the fifth bare market. James Czech says if you look at the other four bare markets that came before, uh that puts the likely emergence from the bare market sometime in the u May to August time frame. But the last bull market was, you know, was not as aggressive as a lot of people, including me, predicted. Uh this bare market is a lot shallower than a lot of people predicted. I I didn't think it dropped more than 50%. most it went to 52%. That's still a lot shallower than historical bare markets. Um anyway, everything about this bare market is more muted. So I think the time will be more muted as well. Meaning I think between 6 and 12 months I think we're probably very much on the you know the front end of as we're probably a lot closer to 6 months emerging from that bare market as opposed to 12 months which would be all the way till October 6 of this year. I really sincerely doubt it goes that long unless it we really are in like World War II and you know the crap hits the fan and all that sort of stuff. Okay, so the bare market ends when there are no more people on the elevator wanting to push the red button. Remember, you can only push the red button for the elevator to go down and get off if you're already on it. Because if you're outside the elevator, the only button you can push is the green button to go on and go up. That's the way the elevator works, right? You can't sell an asset you don't own. And so the only way if you're if you don't own the asset, if you don't own any Bitcoin, the only button you can push is the button to get on the elevator, which makes the price go up because you're buying. Uh if you're inside the elevator already, you have two options. Buy more Bitcoin, which pushes the price higher, or push the red button that says I want to go down and get off. So eventually this the way this exhausting process works for this 6 or 12 months. One second, I'll explain. So, the way this exhausting process works for 6 to 12 months, again, we're 6 months into a 6 or 6 to 12 month period. The way it works is eventually one of these rallies from 67,000 up to 72,000 that just goes up and down and up and down and just wears you out. Again, bare markets wear you out or they scare you out. The scare you out is when the price drop drops quickly and everybody panics on the elevator and starts mashing the red button trying to get out at any price. Uh, and the wear you out, the wear you out of the wear you out and scare you out is this just grind, this grind sideways up. Hope, despair, hope, despair, hope, despair, hope, despair. That cycle just psychologically wears people out. So even people who would never consider selling their Bitcoin are coming from the back of the elevator saying, "I just can't take it anymore. Every time I think we finally hit $72,000 and we're off to the races, we're back to 68 and they just finally just they can't take it anymore and they go mash the red button and say, "Get me off. I'm getting out." And then of course once the very last person gets off the elevator, then it goes way up, which is what always happens. But the the psychological way that feels, let's say, assume you're standing at the midpoint of this elevator and the price is going up and you're 72,000 and you're feeling good and you're like, "Maybe this is it. Maybe the bare market is over. Wouldn't that be amazing? Wouldn't we love that? And you turn around and you look over your shoulder and here's a bunch of people of these 400 million running from the back of the elevator to the front to mash the button because they've been waiting for 71,000 or 72,000 to sell their Bitcoin. So they come running from the back of the elevator, they mash the red button, the elevator goes down and lets them off. So we go back down to 70,000, 69, 68, 67. Then it stabilizes because people on the elevator want to buy more Bitcoin, which makes the price go up. Or people outside the elevator who don't own any Bitcoin, mash the green button to go up, get on, go up. So this goes this goes over and over and over. It's just wearing you out, wearing you out, wearing you out, wearing you out. And each time you have hope that maybe this time we're finally emerging from the bare market, you look over your shoulder and you're like, "Dang it, there's even more people. Where are these new people that suddenly showed up wanting to sell at 72,000? Where were they the last time we were at 72? Why can't everybody who wants to sell at 72 get the heck off this elevator so that we can finally go up? Just everybody push the button together. The price will go down to 60,000 again. We'll be done with this and we can just go up from there. And the answer is because a bunch of people on the elevator think they have the guts to hold when they actually don't. Right? So each new wave as it hits 72, people who thought they could hold on realize they can't and they come scurrying from the back of the elevator to hit the button. So eventually as this grinds on, grinds on, grinds on, grinds down, everybody's finally exhausted somewhere between the 6 and 12 month mark historically. Again, this is Bitcoin's in its fifth bare market. This is my third bare market. I lived through the 2018 bare market and the 2022 bare market, but prior to that, prior to when I owned any Bitcoin, it uh there had been a 2014 bare market and a 2012 bare market. Um, so, uh, you again, this is my third experience with this, but it's gone through five of these. Uh, so anyway, finally, you're completely worn out. You're completely sick of this. Every time you you have hope, despair, hope, despair, hope, despair. Finally, you're like, "Screw it. Bitcoin's never going anywhere, but at least I'll sit on my Bitcoin. At least I won't sell it like an idiot. I'll at least sit on it." and the price hits 72,000, you're like, I'm not even going to look go look over my shoulder to see if people are running from the back of the elevator to push the red button. Because every time I look over my shoulder, there's people running from the back of the elevator to push that red button. And how why would this time be any different? We've done this a hundred times over the course of six, seven, eight, nine months. I'm tired of it. I'm not even going to exert the effort to look over my shoulder to see if people are running from the back of the elevator once again selling at 72,000 or whatever it is. Well, as soon as you're completely exhausted, worn out, sick of it, you don't even want to look over your shoulder again, it turns out there's nobody back there anymore. It turns out that yes, indeed, everybody who was willing to sell their Bitcoin in the 70,000s has sold their Bitcoin in the 70,000s. You just run out of those people. And you don't know which of these rallies you're going to just run out of those people, but eventually you do. You just run out of the people willing to sell because again, 95% of the world population is outside the elevator willing to buy. And most of the 5% that are inside the elevator, those 400 million inside the elevator, most of those can buy more and will buy more Bitcoin. So eventually, you just run out of people willing to sell and that is the end of the bare market. And again, you don't even bother to look over your shoulder because you're like, I'm just sick of it. I'm sick of seeing these people run and panic, press the red button, willing to get out at 71, 72, 76, 74, whatever it is. You're just sick of it. You're like, I'm not even going to look over my my shoulder. those people inevitably are going to come ruin the party again by mashing the red button, selling their Bitcoin, wanting to get out and uh and then suddenly they're just gone. They're just gone. There's like all the people that wanted to sell in the 70,000s are just gone. And the price goes 72, 73, 74, 75, 76. There's dips along the way, right? Because, you know, a new wave of people wants to sell at 82. And then you got to spend time grinding through them for, you know, a few days, a few weeks, whatever it is. And then you grind through some more people at n in the 90s and through, you know, through the hundreds. But what happens is you eventually just run out of people at every point uh on the bull markets. You just run out of people that are willing to sell. So historically, bull markets have lasted longer than three years. Bare markets have lasted between 6 and 12 months. So after 6 to 12 months of pain, you get the glory at the end of that. And the glory at the end of that is you enjoy more than three years of bull market. Bull market means, hey, it's fun times again. The price is going up. Now, that doesn't mean there's not pauses along the way. In fact, in between the the bottom of the bare market in November of 2022 to the end of the bull market in October of 26. um which that you know time period is a long time from the end of 22 to the I guess uh sorry beginning uh I should say end of 25 so it was basically 3 years in that 3 years from uh two uh 2022 to the end of 2025 there were uh one pullback of 32% one pullback of 30% and one pullback of I want to say 25% or something like that. So yeah, there were a couple pullbacks of, you know, 30 plus% along the way, but the price went from 15,500 to $126,000. The price, whatever that is, 7x, I don't know, whatever 126 divided by 155 is, you know, 78x, I don't know. It's a large number. Anyway, whatever that is, the price radically went up in those three years with just a few pullbacks along the way from 74,000 down to 50 at one point and then from I think 110 down to 92 maybe. I forget what it was, but anyway, a few pullbacks along the way, but uh that's the glory at the end of it. At the end of it, you get a three-year uh bull market which sets new all-time highs, makes everyone super happy. be you know Bitcoin spends three years being the best performing asset in the universe. The entire time you own Bitcoin during those three years you are owning the best performing asset in the universe. It feels amazing. You wish you had bought way more Bitcoin at the bottom just like everybody else feels like they had bought way more Bitcoin at the bottom. um which is right now. Frankly, if you want to enjoy that euphoria for the next 3 years, owning as much Bitcoin as possible when it's near the all-time lows, then now exactly now is the best time to buy Bitcoin is anytime under 75,000 is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin because that's where we are right now and we're in the sort of the bottom 20% of this bare market. Uh so, great time to buy Bitcoin. But again, eventually you just run out of these people that are willing to sell and you run out of them always later than you think you're I mean, you're always thinking you're going to go higher sooner and then it always takes longer than you think it is and then but eventually you run out of these sellers. You run out and then you get to enjoy three years of bull market and then you go through another price correction if there's another one. Nobody thought I mean not nobody but 60% of people did not think we would be in a bare market right now including me. Most of the Bitcoin community thought we were sort of done with these kind of bare markets because of the nature of the Bitcoin ETFs and the maturity of the market. But it turns out you are earlier in the Bitcoin adoption cycle than most of us thought. Perhaps this is the last bare market. At some point we will go through the last bare market. I mean we're not going to do this forever. At some point Bitcoin will be a large enough asset that the bare markets look more like, you know, traditional stock market dips or something like that. And in the very long term, the you won't get bare markets at all any more so than you get bare markets in the US dollar for example or bare markets. I mean, not that the dollar doesn't lose value faster sometimes than others, but you don't get typically 20, 30, 40% draw downs in the value of the US dollar in the course of a few weeks or a few months. That typically doesn't happen. The dollar's always losing between four and 9% of its value every year. But again, you don't get this, you know, 20, 30, 40% all in a few weeks or something like that of loss of purchasing power of the US dollar. But anyway, so hang in there and at some point in the future, you're going to wish you had bought way more Bitcoin than you own right now. Uh you will wish you had bought it at times exactly like this. And every time you see the price rise and rise and rise and rise and get knocked back, knocked back, just realize, hey, maybe this time is the end of the bare market. But it's always one more time than you think because the reason the reason there's always sellers, not always, but the reason there are usually sellers that knock it back down is because everybody thinks the bare market's over. If it does it one more time, I'm out and then it does it one more time. And they are the people that come running from the back of the elevator pushing the red button to get off. They are the people, the people who thought they could hang on and they just couldn't take it anymore. And then it does it again. and a new group of people that thought they could handle it. That thought they thought they could take one more five, you know, percent price dip from 72 to 67. They thought they could handle it and it turns out they couldn't. They couldn't handle it. They are the next wave of people that come running from the back of the elevator to push the red button to go down and get off. So again, we will run out of those people. And is this it? I don't know. James Tech says it's more likely that that happens between May and August. But who knows? One day it'll just be like poof. the bare market will be over. You blinked and you missed it and you know it's just marching higher, marching higher, and then you get, you know, three years plus of the amazing performance everybody loves that's been going on for most of the last 17 years. So, if I can help you in that journey, let me know. Otherwise, hang in there. Don't sell. Things will be great. Life is good. Uh we're most of the way through this bare market. Hopefully, the end is near and you are going to love it. Love it. Love it.