How LOW could bitcoin go?

How low could Bitcoin go? Well, it'll come as no surprise that nobody knows the answer to that question, but we can take some really good guesses. Uh today, as I record this, Bitcoin is at $87,600. Uh the high today so far was $93,000. The low was $86,000. That's a pretty big swing. Usually in the modern age of Bitcoin, it doesn't swing that much in a day. Although back when I was buying Bitcoin, even as recently as 2021, the I mean the volatility was wild. It would swing 40% in a day. So by today's standards, you know, however many% that is is microscopic. By comparison, whatever it is, 8% or whatever that swing is. Um but uh anyway, so how low could Bitcoin go? Well, the best person that knows the closest thing to an answer to that is James Czech. my favorite Bitcoin analyst, James Czech, uh goes by checkmate. He's got a Twitter handle and all of that, but he has a newsletter called Check onChain because it is James Czech following or doing onchain analysis of Bitcoin. And you can figure out a lot about the psychology of what's going to happen with Bitcoin by doing onchain analysis, which is studying how people move Bitcoin around on the Bitcoin blockchain. because you can tell, for example, who's sat on Bitcoin a long time without ever moving it. Um, now you can't tell if they're using River or Coinbase or something like that. Uh, but enough people use uh uh self-custody things like BitKey that uh where you actually can see the Bitcoin move on chain. You can't tell who it is. It's completely anonymous, but you can tell that someone, you know, who has held Bitcoin for 10 years suddenly decided to move it to Coinbase, for example, because you can tell they can tell which addresses are Coinbase and they don't know who it was, but they can tell that somebody sent Bitcoin to bit to uh Coinbase or to River that had not done that in the last two years, 5 years, whatever. So on onchain analysis, you can track these flows. You can also do the same thing for the Bitcoin ETFs because every Bitcoin ETF reports every single day inflows and outflows. So you know in the Bitcoin ETFs how much total capital they took in on any given day and how much capital they they uh was withdrawn on any given day. Meaning how much people how much capital did people put into Bitcoin ETFs or take out of Bitcoin ETFs. All of that is available and can be tracked even though again just like with Bitcoin onchain analysis, you don't know who any of those people are. you just know that it happened. So, as a result of that, you can do some pretty in-depth and pretty amazing analysis to determine how long people have held Bitcoin and what their behavior patterns on are. And for example, you can tell that when here's an interesting fact. So, on average on the entire Bitcoin blockchain, uh the value of all the Bitcoin stored in the Bitcoin blockchain, uh the trading value of Bitcoin is typically about 80% higher than that. So, if there is $1 trillion of value stored in the Bitcoin blockchain, the day-to-day price of Bitcoin will typically be around $1.8 trillion. Uh, so it's just really cool stuff like that. And you can track that over time and you can look at at things like, okay, what's called the MVRV, market value to realize value. And you can say, okay, if the MVRV ratio is typically 1.8x, uh, and the lowest it ever goes is 1 point whatever two 1.6 six or pick a number. If the lowest it goes in Bitcoin uh bare markets, meaning when Bitcoin is down, is a multiple of that, well, what would what does that equal in today's market? And you can come up with numbers and you say, okay, you know, that means this, this means that, whatever. So, James Czech, who will likely send an update tomorrow um with his latest thinking on how low Bitcoin could go, I thought he might send his update today, but he's apparently spending more time working on it. So anyway, uh he usually sends uh updates on Mondays and Thursdays, but he did not send one today. And because he's in Australia, uh it is, you know, whatever it is, 4 in the morning over there. Uh or five in 5 4 3 in the morning, something like that. So he's not going to send one today. It will likely show up in the Wii hours of tomorrow. And he will weigh in on what he thinks is the lowest Bitcoin can go. And when he does that, I will post something on Twitter or face I mean Facebook. I will post something on Facebook about it. But historically, he said, "Look, if we break definitively below $95,000, which I think it's fair to say now, we have um I mean, we've been below 95 for multiple days now, as low as 86. It feels like that counts as definitively breaking below 95. Although, I don't know, he may say for whatever technical reasons, he does not feel like we've definitively broken below 95, but I think he's going to say we have." and he said, "Look, if we break below 95, there's a good chance we touch $80,000." Now, does it make sense to wait for $80,000? No. Statistically, you're going to end up worse off because the odds are against you waiting for lower prices. That's universal with Bitcoin. No matter what the price is, the probability that it will drop further is always less than the minimum probability it would have to be in order to make statistical sense. Um, so think about it like a coin toss. If somebody said, "Hey, give me, you know, $1 and every time you flip heads, I'll give you $2." Well, the stat statistical probability would be even. Half of the time you'd win. Half of the time you double your money. Those are basically even statistical probabilities. Well, but if somebody said, "Okay, give me a dollar and every time you flip heads, I'll give you $3." Well, now there's a statistical benefit to flipping because when you lose, you lose $1, but when you win, you get $3. So, it's statistically beneficial to flip the coin in that situation. Well, it's the same with Bitcoin where the statistical probability is better of you ending up better off by buying now at today's price as compared to buying later at a lower price. And that is the case for every statistical probability for every price level from now all the way as low as Bitcoin could ever go. At every statistical uh probability level, one second here. Sorry, give me one minute. Hey, good afternoon. At every statistical probability level, the probability that Bitcoin won't go to that level or that it will go to the level is either above or below what it would have to be in order to make statistical sense to wait. So, if somebody said, "Okay, the lowest it got today was $86,000. Should I buy at $85,000?" I would say, "No, buy right now at 87,600." it makes a zero statistical probability uh advantage to wait. You are much more likely to never buy the Bitcoin if you wait as opposed to get it at a lower price because either the price never gets there or if it does get there you don't actually buy it because it's dropping and when things are dropping they're scary to buy. So statistically you are always better off buying at today's price as opposed to waiting for a lower price. But James check says look if we definitively break below 20 uh $95,000 we're probably going into the 80s. We could touch 80,000 now into the 80s. We've already gone into the 80s. So I don't know maybe James Czech is going to say look you know we're going to go into the 80s and we have gone into the 80s. This might be the bottom. I don't know if he's going to say no we're probably going to touch 80,000. I don't know. He might say we might touch the high 70,000s. At the end of the day, he will say that he also does not know that he is guessing basing on the based on the the past behaviors and actions of people who have owned Bitcoin from the beginning of time. So he's just looking at how people have behaved previously. At what levels of you know percent discounts do they tend to capitulate forcing the price lower? At what point do is the price low enough that smart people step in and say, "Hey, I was not planning on buying more Bitcoin, but if you're going to be this dumb and sell it to me this discounted, then I will." Which is why I bought Bitcoin at $95,000. I was like, "Look, I was not planning on selling that gold and silver and buying Bitcoin with it because I didn't want to deal with the headache of doing that. But once Bitcoin dipped toward $100,000, I was like, screw this. If you're going to give me cheap Bitcoin and the market's going to be irrational, then somebody rational like me is going to step up and buy up some of that Bitcoin at 95,000 a coin. So, the same is true now. Right now, earlier today, the price dipped to $86,000 and then it went back to $87,600 when I started recording this video. Well, why did it go up $1,600? because the price was too discounted at $86,000 and too many people said, "Hey, if you're going to sell it to me that cheap, I'll take it." And so they did. And it pushed the price back up to 87,600. Now, are other people going to freak out and, you know, freak out due to the stock market, everything else, and sell their Bitcoin and push the price even lower down to 85? Nobody knows. But when James Shack does his analysis, by far he has a better insight than anyone else in the world, what those prices might be. It's based on actual human behavior of the past, not a bunch of crazy Fibonacci sequences and retracement levels and you know, Ballinger bands and there's just there's like a million different things that people get all wound around the axle on convinced that they found the perfect metric. And of course, as soon as they think they found the perfect metric for timing the market, that metric magically doesn't work the one time that they bet everything on it. So, I just it's not worth any of that. But James Czech is helpful because he can tell you where things are likely to bottom based on past uh Bitcoin holder behavior. And the best predictor of past of the future Bitcoin behavior is past Bitcoin holder behavior because humans generally behave the same way over time. And if we know how they behaved in the past, often we can figure out how they might behave in the future. So James Czech is by far the best person to weigh in on where the Bitcoin bottom might be. We know there is one. We might have hit it already. Nobody knows. James Czech doesn't know. Michael Sailor doesn't know. All of those people just know that Bitcoin is way on sale right now and are buying accordingly just like I am. So now I think is a great time to buy Bitcoin. It's way on sale. Could it more could it get on more on sale? Sure. But it makes zero statistical sense to wait for a lower price. That either probably won't happen or if it does, you'll probably be too scared to pull the trigger anyway and then you will miss out. And I my goal for you is to not miss out on the radical uh upside potential of Bitcoin. So I'm here to help you on your journey as soon as we find out what James Czech thinks tomorrow morning. Um I'm curious. I'm curious what he thinks based on the latest data, which is why I read his newsletter and why it's like the only thing I subscribe to and it's absolutely worth $29 a month. Even if you only subscribe for one month to get you through this dip and then you cancel it, it's still worth it. So I'm a big fan. We'll see what he says. Now is a great time to buy Bitcoin. If I had capital, I would buy it right now. I would not wait. I would buy it right now. Absolutely, no matter what, regardless of the price, I would buy Bitcoin right now if I had any capital I could possibly do that with. I would not wait for a further dip. It makes no statistical sense to wait for a further dip. I would buy right now with everything I could, as I have already done at $95,000. So, you can buy at $87,000 the same Bitcoin that I bought at $95,000. is you can get it significantly cheaper than I paid for it. But again, I don't care because in the long run, it won't matter. And not a soul on the planet in the long runs going to care whether you or I paid 95 or 87 or 92. None of that's just it's just not going to matter. So, uh, have a great day. I'm here if you need anything.