I Bought $250,000 of Bitcoin and the Price Dropped!

The price of Bitcoin dropped right after I spent more than $250,000 buying more Bitcoin. Literally in the last 48 hours, the price dropped right after I finished those buys. Would it have been possible for me to time the market better and catch a lower price? The answer is no. That is not statistically possible. And I want to explain why. And I want to walk you through the math. First of all, what happened? Well, I sold all the gold and silver that I had back from 2017. I got the proceeds of that and over the last 48 hours I bought more than $250,000 of additional Bitcoin. Now, I didn't know I had that much gold and silver. I didn't remember how much I had bought in 2017. It was more than I thought I had. Plus, even though it massively underperformed Bitcoin, it did outperform some other assets. And so, I ended up with more gold and silver than I thought I had. Otherwise, I would have changed it out for Bitcoin a lot sooner. Uh, but anyway, so I bought more than a quarter million dollars of Bitcoin in the last 48 hours. The price promptly dropped by about $2,000 into the $93,750 as I started recording this video. $93,750. Whereas the price I actually bought it for was about $95,750 or so in that ballpark between 95 and 96. Now we're in the 93s. Could I have timed it better? No. And I want to walk you through the math. First of all, let's assume I knew the price was going to bottom sometime in the fourth quarter, which first of all, we don't know. That could be could have been last quarter, could have been any of the last 24 quarters, could have been anytime in the next 24 quarters. Anyway, let's just assume we knew it was going to be this quarter. What are my chances of buying it in the right 24-hour period this quarter? The answer is there's 91 days in an average quarter. And so, I have a 1 in 91 chance, about a 1% chance. So, I have about a 1% chance of buying Bitcoin on the right day of the quarter. So, right there, there's a 99% chance I'm not going to buy it on the right day, which means there's a 99% chance that the price is going to end up lower at some point than the price I paid for it, which I'm totally fine with. That's the same with all investments. It's why virtually never does anyone buy the bottom of a dip or sell the top of a peak because statistically, it's just impossible to do. So again, you've got a what a 1% chance of buying in the right 24-h hour period if you knew that it was going to dip in one quarter, which we don't even know that. But let's assume you wanted to be even better than that because some a substantial amount of the Bitcoin I bought was less than 24 hours ago, meaning it was within the one day. So, what if you wanted to say, "I want to be in the right hour." Because obviously buying in this hour, Bitcoin is a couple thousand dollars cheaper than buying, I don't know, 20 hours ago, about 8:00 p.m. last night instead of 5:00 p.m. whatever, uh, 400 p.m. this afternoon. So, 20 hours ago, if I want to be in the right hour in in a quarter, I have a 1 in 2,000 chance. So, I have a less than one 20th of 1% chance of buying in the right hour in a quarter. If you want to narrow it down to the right minute, I have a 1 in 131,000 chance of buying in the right minute. That even just assumes that the dip happens and I can guess the quarter right. If I guess the quarter right, I have a one in 131,000 chance of buying the perfect bottom in the right minute. Okay? So the odds you're just never going to buy the bottom and you're never going to sell the top. It's statistically impossible. And because everybody who's smart knows that, they don't try. They either do what I do, which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can whenever you have the money to do it regardless of the price, or they dollar cost average, which means they buy the same amount of Bitcoin every week or every month or every day. And that way they're basically buying the, you know, the dips, the tops, the bottoms, whatever. It's called dollar cost averaging, DCA. Now some one the person who has bought the most Bitcoin of any human in the entire world is Michael Sailor. One second. So Michael Sailor his company Micro Strategy which is now just called Strategy. His company Strategy owns more than 3% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist in all of history. More than 3% of all the Bitcoin that led exist in all of history is owned by one company and its founder and CEO is is Michael Sailor and he has been in charge of every one of those Bitcoin buys. His most recent Bitcoin buy was Monday of this week. He bought $49 million of Bitcoin at 102,000 a coin. He could have waited and bought it at 93,000 a coin, but he spent $50 million buying Bitcoin this week at 102,000. But it gets worse because two weeks ago he bought $45 million at $114,000 a coin. Three weeks ago he spent $43 million buying Bitcoin at 111,000 a coin. It's even worse. Four weeks ago he spent $18 million buying Bitcoin at 112. And about five or six weeks ago, something like that. five weeks ago. It looks like uh he spent $27 million buying Bitcoin at 123,000 a coin, which is pretty close to the top. 126,000 was the top. And this guy's buying $27 million of Bitcoin at $123,561. Now, why is he doing that? He's doing that because he understands these same probabilities that I do, which is that he's never going to time the bottom just right. He's never planning to sell. So he doesn't have to worry about selling the tops. But even even if he was trying to time the bottoms, he could dollar cost average. He could raise the money and then put it in 17th every day throughout the week. He doesn't do that. As soon as he has capital, he puts it in the market as fast as conceivably possible regardless of the price. And he's always done that. He's been buying Bitcoin since uh the year 2020. So more than 5 years now he's been buying Bitcoin. And he has accumulated with that strategy 4 sorry $641,000 Bitcoin uh which is more than 47 billion dollars of Bitcoin. He has bought more than 47 billion dollar of Bitcoin. That's an insane amount of Bitcoin that he's bought. and he's bought it because every time he's able to raise money in either the equity markets or the debt markets on Wall Street, he immediately turns out around and buys Bitcoin with that money because he understands the probabilities. So to summarize here, the probability of timing the market just right by buying Bitcoin on the right day in a given quarter is about 1%. If you want to buy it in the right hour of one quarter, your odds are less than one in 2,000. If you want to buy Bitcoin at the right minute in any given quarter of three months, your chances are 1 in 131,000, you are not going to buy the perfect bottom. All you can do is look at Bitcoin and decide statistically that it makes sense to buy it now. Now, if you are waiting for a low, I can run for you the statistical probability of Bitcoin hitting any low based on history. So, for example, if you were waiting for $80,000, let's just say you don't want Bitcoin that's 26% on sale. You want it an additional 14% on sale all the way down to $80,000. Well, statistically, the odds would have to be better than 84% chance that you get there in order for it to make statistical sense to wait. But the odds historically once Bitcoin has dropped 26% the odds that it will drop an additional 14% are only less than 39% chance. So the odds are more than 2:1 against you by waiting for a lower price. And that is the same whether you're at 93,000 and you're waiting for 92 or 91 or 90 or 85 or 80. Every probability of getting a number lower than today's price has a worse probability of it never happening than the probability would have to be for you to make statistical sense for you to wait. Which means it just makes sense to buy as much Bitcoin as you can as soon as possible regardless of the price. That is the statistical superior way of doing it. It is the way I buy Bitcoin. It is the way Michael Sailor buys Bitcoin and it's the way everybody who's trying to accumulate as much Bitcoin as they possibly can does it. And right now on my Facebook page, all these people are posting, "I'm not going to buy Bitcoin until it hits X price and Y price and Z price." Guess what? All of those people were on Facebook and Twitter back in 2022. All of them were telling everybody, "Don't buy Bitcoin in 2022 unless the price hits 13,800." That was the number. They had all run their statistical models. They had all run their probabilities. They were all certain that the Bitcoin price was optimal at 13,800. Well, guess what? It never hit 13,800. The lowest the price ever went in 2022 was 15,500. Well, guess who was buying it at 18,000, 22,000, 16,000? Me. I was buying it at all of those prices because all of those prices sounded cheap to me based on the fact that I think Bitcoin will be worth more than a million dollars in the long haul. So, am I going to wait around and pass up on $16,000 Bitcoin because a bunch of idiots on X and Facebook are telling me to wait for 13,800. None of those people bought any of that Bitcoin. Certainly not at 13,800. It probably bounced into the 20, 30, 40,000s before they finally admitted that they were wrong and bought it. In fact, most of them probably never bought it. They're probably thinking, "I missed out. I should have bought it at 16,000 18,000 20,000 but I was waiting for 13,800 and I didn't buy it at that price and every other price seems too expensive and they probably just never bought any of that Bitcoin. So they missed out on what 700% whatever that is some ridiculously high percent return. So, I've been getting these insane returns on all that Bitcoin I bought in 2022. Well, all these people on Twitter and Facebook were all saying, "Wait for 13,800. Only idiots are buying Bitcoin at 16,000 because we all know it's going to 13,800." Well, a bunch of morons missed out on a bunch of Bitcoin because it never went there. So, I am smart enough to go run this math and know that it does not make sense to wait to buy Bitcoin. Not with my own money because I bought $250,000 of Bitcoin in the last 48 hours. And what did the price do as soon as I bought it? It dropped by two or three thousand dollars a coin. Right after I finished buying it, the price dropped by a few thousand a coin. I knew it was going to do that because otherwise the probability was that I bought it at the perfect time. And statistically, I know I I'm not going to buy it at the perfect time. And if I know statistically the probability that I bought it at the perfect time is less than 1%. That means there's a 99% chance the price is going to drop after I buy it. Now, you might be thinking, well, why don't you just wait? Why didn't you just wait for the price to buy uh to drop and then buy it? Because what does a drop even mean? If you wait for a price drop right now, yeah, it's probably going to drop a little more, but you can wait for that price drop all the time, just like those people did in 2022. All of those people said if it drops down here to 15,500, it's probably going to go to 13,800. and it never did. And those idiots never bought the Bitcoin. So the same is true now. If I had money to buy Bitcoin right now, I would at 93,750. If I had money, which I did yesterday, to buy it at 95,000, I did because it just makes sense to buy it when it's this discounted. It makes sense to buy it regardless of what the price is. And I'm smart enough to know that I'm not going to take I'm not going to pretend that with a 1% chance of timing it better on a better day of the quarter. I'm gonna wait around to find the perfect day at the bottom. I don't know what the bottom is. You don't know what the bottom is. Clearly, Michael Sailor doesn't know what the bottom is because while I've been over here buying a quarter million dollars of Bitcoin, he literally bought a quarter billion dollar of Bitcoin. I just bought a quarter million dollars of Bitcoin. Well, well, he bought a quarter billion dollar of Bitcoin and he bought it at way higher prices than I do. 102, 114, 111, 112, 123. Each of these buys are, you know, ballpark $50 million of Bitcoin. Again, the smart people buy as much Bitcoin as they can whenever they can, as much as they can, because statistically it doesn't make sense to do anything else. So, here we are in a 26% price dip. Are you going to do the smart thing and buy as much Bitcoin as you can, or are you going to wait for a dip that may never happen, that you probably won't buy even if it does happen? That statistically makes zero sense at all. That's where we are. FYI, I have zero regrets about the Bitcoin I bought yesterday and the day before. The only reason I didn't buy all of it two days ago was because I hit the buy limits. Um, if you do a wire transfer, there's no buy limits. You can buy as much Bitcoin as you want if you wire if you wire transfer money into Coinbase or River. It's the buy the buys are unlimited. Uh but because the money hit my bank account from the gold and silver I sold in 2017 after the cut off for wire transfers on Friday, I couldn't wire funds, which means I had to suck the money out of the bank account from River and Coinbase uh using the built-in integration, which is great. They all they all use Plaid. It works great, but the problem is there's limits on how much you can suck out of any given bank account. And even though I bought on four different exchanges, Coinbase, River, Gemini, and Strike, uh, to get up to that buy level, I maxed out all of those on the first day and then I maxed them out again on the second day before I could get all the capital deployed. Um, due to the buy limits of each of those. Um, so as a result, again, I'm thrilled with the Bitcoin I bought yesterday and the day before. There's no way I could have predicted it would have been lower today. Who even knows? Is it going to be lower or higher tomorrow? Nobody knows. I'm just thrilled. I've got Bitcoin that I bought in the 90,000s. And same will be true of you. And if we could re rewind time to 2018, it was the exact same thing. Take a zero off all of the numbers. And it was the exact same thing back in 2018. You know, if you take a zero off, the high price was 12,600. 126. Take a zero off is 12,600. The price I bought at 9,500. Uh 95,000 turns into 9,500. The price it dipped to is now 9,300. And everybody was doing the exact same thing then that they did now. Oh, you bought it at 12,600. That's so expensive. I would never buy it till it's 8,200. And I'm out there buying at 9,500. I'm out there buying at 9 9,300. I'm out there buying at 12,000. I'm out there buying at 10,000. I'M BUYING AT all of these prices because I know that none of these morons know what the bottom of the market is. And there's no way to predict it. I just wish I could go back in time and buy the most expensive Bitcoin in 2018. Literally, the very most expensive Bitcoin in 2018. I wish I could buy all of the Bitcoin I bought back then at the most expensive price of 2018 or of 2019. I can't because I was doing what too much many other people were doing, which was I was trying to gauge what a cheap price was, what an expensive price was. You know, was I going to regret it if I bought at one price and then it dropped to another price? Don't play those games. Just buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It literally is that simple. And it is that simple right now.