Is bitcoin about to crash? Or shoot for the moon? And is there any way of knowing?

00:01 hey everyone is bitcoin about to crash 00:04 or is it about to shoot for the moon and 00:06 is there any way of knowing let's talk 00:08 about that okay so over the last 48 00:11 hours there's been a number of people 00:13 that have weighed in on what they think 00:15 is going to happen in the very near term 00:18 you've got the jack morers m- a l l e r 00:21 s with the jack mer show he's the uh ceo 00:23 and founder of strike 00:26 ske so his podcast episode on uh mailbag 00:30 monday the jack maller show um which you 00:32 can find on youtube i posted the youtube 00:34 link and i posted the podcast link a 00:36 couple minutes ago it's the same thing 00:38 it's just one's on youtube one's on 00:39 podcast he goes through why basically 00:42 the federal government keeps telling 00:44 people they're about to print a ton of 00:46 money and i agree with him but on the 00:49 flip side so you know that school of 00:51 thought says "hey a huge amount of money 00:53 printing is about to start happening." 00:55 and the federal government is 00:57 telegraphing that every which way and 01:00 what matters most is how much bitcoin 01:02 you own before that massive mega print 01:05 of money like it matters a lot um but on 01:08 the reverse side of things my favorite 01:10 analyst one 01:14 second my favorite analyst which is 01:16 james czech who goes by checkmate um is 01:20 more cautious he's like "hey you know 01:22 back in 2021 we had the sort of double 01:24 top where it you know it it topped at 01:26 $64,000 in april and then it topped at 01:30 $69,000 in november and you know there's 01:33 a lot of similarities to the the 01:35 patterns bitcoin is going through now as 01:37 compared to that." and uh then you've 01:39 got safedine amos who wrote the bitcoin 01:42 standard basically saying look you know 01:45 bitcoin goes through these uh four-year 01:47 having cycles um where you know it tends 01:51 to go through this parabolic run and 01:53 then a major price correction and then 01:55 you know it does it and each each high 01:56 is higher and each low is higher so it's 01:59 always just going up and to the right 02:01 but it's with that volatility and uh i 02:04 posted that link as well i posted all of 02:06 these links and uh natalie brunell who's 02:08 interviewing him says "wait but we're 02:10 only at like 100 right now as i record 02:12 this 02:14 105,500 02:16 105500." um so natalie is saying um "hey 02:21 safeodine but like we haven't gone 02:23 through this huge parabolic run." he was 02:24 like "well we still might we we might go 02:26 we might run up to $200,000 this year 02:29 but after we do or if we do there's 02:32 going to be a significant price 02:33 correction because the demand just can't 02:35 keep up with that so the question is 02:36 what is about to happen and the answer 02:38 is i don't know and neither does jack 02:41 morers neither does natalie bernell 02:43 neither does safety and amus neither 02:44 does james czech nobody knows everybody 02:47 is speculating what is going to happen 02:50 now what do you do in a situation like 02:52 this when nobody knows what's about to 02:54 happen nobody knows if there's going to 02:56 be a price correction nobody knows if 02:58 there's going to be huge run i can tell 02:60 you what i do i buy more bitcoin why do 03:02 i buy more bitcoin because i only know 03:04 with cert certainty that the in the long 03:07 run bitcoin will outperform everything 03:09 that's all i know that's all i know with 03:11 certainty is that it's going to 03:11 outperform everything and the only way i 03:14 can act on that is by buying bitcoin so 03:17 my most recent significant uh bitcoin 03:19 purchase was for uh $14,000 03:23 uh which i did a video about $14,000 03:25 like a week or two back at a price of i 03:27 think it was 03:28 $109,000 so we're technically $4,000 03:31 below the price i paid for for $14,000 03:34 would i make that purchase again if i 03:36 could rewind time yes of course i would 03:38 i want bitcoin not us dollars if river i 03:42 bought it on river if river sent me an 03:45 email notice which they have not and 03:46 i've never gotten one of these but if 03:47 they sent me an email notice saying "hey 03:49 somehow your tra your purchase didn't 03:51 actually go through here's your $14,000 03:53 sitting in cash what do you want to do 03:55 with it?" again that's never happened 03:56 but if it did what would i do i would 03:59 immediately buy $14,000 of bitcoin so i 04:02 am doing that because i am certain in 04:04 the long term i am not certain in the 04:06 short term now there's a couple of 04:09 expenses coming up uh one i signed the 04:13 contract for this $20,000 whole house 04:15 generator because the power company 04:18 cannot keep my electricity on to save 04:19 their lives it's absolutely crazy so 04:22 after the power just kept going out for 04:24 the 12th time this year um i signed for 04:27 a $20,000 generator now notice i am 04:30 buying $14,000 of bitcoin and i will owe 04:34 for a $20,000 generator like that's 04:36 going to happen i'm going to have to pay 04:38 for the $20,000 generator that's going 04:40 to happen um but i'm buying $14,000 of 04:42 bitcoin so is there a possibility that 04:44 by the time i owe the invoice which 04:47 would probably be a month from now or 04:48 something like that by the time i owe 04:50 that invoice for $20,000 um which they 04:53 have not build me they haven't invoiced 04:55 me so i'll pay it as soon as i get it 04:56 but i don't know when i'm going to get 04:57 it could be a month from now uh when i 04:59 pay that invoice let's call it a month 05:01 from now bitcoin could be below the 05:03 $109,000 price that i paid for it well 05:05 that's a a risk you take every time you 05:07 buy an asset you either sit in us 05:10 dollars knowing it will be worth less 05:13 but by a small amount or you put it in 05:16 bitcoin where there's a good chance 05:17 it'll be worth a lot more and some 05:19 chance it'll be worth less and that's 05:21 the risk you take with every investment 05:23 and it's the risk i've taken with every 05:24 single investment uh you know all the 05:27 time to the present 05:29 so wondering well wait why don't you 05:31 just wait why don't you just wait and 05:33 see what happens and then decide one 05:38 second well because if you wait you miss 05:41 out on whatever would have happened so i 05:43 had this exact conundrum back in 2022 05:47 and early 2023 bitcoin was less than uh 05:51 $17,000 per coin buy more bitcoin with 05:55 at a price less than $17,000 at the time 05:59 back in late 2022 and early 2023 06:02 everyone thought that a recession was 06:04 right around the corner i mean everybody 06:06 everybody was talking like a recession 06:08 was any day now and i had to make the 06:11 choice of do i buy $17,000 bitcoin uh 06:15 and i think it was four months i think 06:16 more than four months bitcoin was less 06:19 than $20,000 uh from 06:22 november either late october november 06:25 whatever of 2022 to like sometime 06:28 february march anyway it was like four 06:29 months four months anyone in the world 06:32 could buy an unlimited amount of bitcoin 06:33 at less than $20,000 with with whatever 06:36 capital they had available to to them 06:38 and but everybody was talking about a 06:40 recession being right around the corner 06:42 and that if there if a recession did hit 06:44 that it would drag the price of bitcoin 06:46 down temporarily therefore making people 06:48 like me regret the fact that i had 06:50 bought bitcoin at 17,000 or 18 or 19 or 06:54 whatever less than 20,000 obviously i 06:57 bought bitcoin at less than 20 i bought 06:59 it in the 30s i bought it in the 40s i 07:01 bought it in the ' 50s i bought it in 07:02 the 60s 70s 80s 90s 100s and i think the 07:05 highest i've bought bitcoin for is 07:07 111,000 i don't know something like that 07:09 so i made the decision back then that i 07:12 am making right now which is i don't 07:15 know if a recession's right around the 07:17 corner back in 2022 and early 2023 i 07:20 don't know if a bitcoin price correction 07:22 is right around the corner what i do 07:24 know is if i consistently invest in 07:25 bitcoin that i uh have radically 07:28 increased my net worth um as i've shared 07:31 in other videos my cost basis is maybe 07:34 $30,000 or low $30,000 something like 07:36 that um which means i've more than 07:39 because i have that's a cost basis on 07:41 100% of my liquid net worth i've more 07:43 than tripled my entire liquid net worth 07:46 now that does not include my stock in 07:48 prospero which is not liquid and other 07:50 private company investments but just for 07:52 liquid assets which is stocks bonds you 07:54 know that sort of stuff which i own zero 07:56 i have zero stocks zero bonds zero us 07:59 dollar cash other than very low sort of 08:02 barely scrape by don't bounce a check to 08:04 a babysitter levels of cash in my bank 08:06 accounts it's bitcoin it's all bitcoin 08:08 it's 100% bitcoin now um but i got to 08:11 100% bitcoin with conviction of just 08:13 always buying bitcoin always making 08:15 decisions in including when bitcoin was 08:18 at $85,000 per coin and i made the 08:20 decision to finance my new uh 2026 model 08:24 uh tesla model y uh the 2026 tesla model 08:28 y i financed that with trustmark at 6% 08:30 interest for 5 years and i was making a 08:32 conscious decision that hey at a price 08:34 of $85,000 i can liquidate bitcoin and 08:37 buy this tesla or i can finance this 08:39 tesla at 6% interest and keep the 08:41 bitcoin and i decided to keep the 08:43 bitcoin at $85,000 a coin now it's a 08:46 $105,000 per coin so the payments i'm 08:48 making every month are significantly 08:50 discounted because i'm paying for those 08:53 tesla payments with $105,000 bitcoin 08:55 instead of $85,000 bitcoin which was 08:57 what would have been the case if i had 08:59 liquidated the bitcoin at the time i 09:00 actually bought the tesla um but again 09:04 and bitcoin could dip below $85,000 and 09:06 for a period of time i could be paying 09:08 payments on this tesla that are below 09:11 $85,000 but i don't know and over the 09:14 next 5 years i think the vast majority 09:17 including potentially all the payments i 09:19 make on this tesla will be above $85,000 09:21 per coin so there's just no way of 09:23 knowing what's going to happen in the 09:25 near term i am very thankful i did not 09:27 wait for that recession back in late 09:29 2022 and early 2023 09:33 if i had waited for the recession to 09:34 push the bitcoin price lower than you 09:37 know between 16 and,000 and $20,000 i 09:40 would have missed out on a bunch of 09:42 bitcoin that is now up 600% which is the 09:45 reason i can afford a tesla so i can 09:47 afford a tesla now because i had the 09:49 conviction to buy bitcoin below $20,000 09:52 obviously i bought it at all prices but 09:55 you know it in in total it resulted in 09:58 the cost basis in the low $30,000 that 10:00 includes bitcoin i bought as low as 10:03 $6,400 it includes bitcoin as high as 10:06 $111,000 but the cost basis in total is 10:10 uh low $30,000 because i had the 10:12 conviction to buy back when everyone was 10:14 holding so we find ourselves in that 10:17 same situation now which is should you 10:20 buy more bitcoin now or listen to safe 10:23 and amos or you know be cautious like 10:26 checkmate whatever and checkmate's not 10:28 saying don't buy bitcoin he's just 10:29 saying "hey you better be ready for the 10:31 volatility." same with safety and amus 10:34 he's not saying don't buy bitcoin he's 10:35 saying if you're buying bitcoin now you 10:37 got to be ready for the swings you got 10:38 to be ready to take a significant draw 10:41 down um you got to be willing to ride 10:43 that out you've got to have finances 10:45 that can handle that um that is what 10:47 he's saying if you can't handle that you 10:50 know don't take the risk if you can't 10:51 handle it like you got to be able to 10:53 handle that make sure you can handle it 10:55 so that's where we are nobody knows the 10:56 right answer nobody knows what's about 10:58 to happen next what i know in the long 11:01 term is the us government's going to 11:02 print an freaking boatload of money 11:05 they're going to out of thin air and 11:07 there will be high inflation that will 11:08 run for an extended period of time that 11:10 is absolutely positively the only way 11:12 out of the debt the mammoth debt you 11:16 know insanity that we're in they're 11:17 going to print a ton of money i want to 11:19 own as much bitcoin as conceivably 11:21 possible before the big print that's 11:24 what i want 11:25 my finances can handle it my finances 11:28 can handle buying bitcoin $14,000 of 11:31 bitcoin at $109,000 and liquidating it 11:34 at 11:35 $92,000 to pay for uh you know a whole 11:38 house generator my finances can handle 11:40 that my finances can handle making 11:43 payments on a tesla for a period of time 11:45 when bitcoin is below $85,000 per coin 11:48 if that happens my finances can handle 11:50 it um and if if every decision i made 11:55 was not buying bitcoin with money that i 11:58 might need in the next year or two then 12:01 i would buy way less bitcoin so i'm not 12:03 going to do that i'm not going to sit on 12:05 money i'm not going to sit on one or two 12:07 years of reserves 12:09 uh just in case bitcoin crashes i'm 12:12 going to make sure i have enough of a 12:13 cushion to be able to handle it to be 12:16 able to spend bitcoin when it's down if 12:17 i have to for a period of time but i'm 12:20 going to have enough bitcoin that i can 12:21 ride that out and i'm going to be good 12:23 on the other side and that's all i know 12:25 to do that's the only thing that's 12:27 worked for me and that's the only thing 12:28 that works in investing uh because again 12:30 if you always kept if if you never 12:33 bought bitcoin unless you knew it would 12:35 be up then you would only ever buy 12:38 bitcoin with money that you didn't need 12:39 for at least four years which would mean 12:42 there was a significant amount of money 12:43 that i had back in you know 2022 and 12:47 2023 that i would not have bought 12:49 bitcoin because i would have thought 12:50 well i'm going to need some of that 12:52 money before 2026 12:54 well it turned out to be a great idea to 12:56 buy a bunch of bitco bitcoin by back 12:58 then um uh buy a you know buy bitcoin 13:02 back then when i say a lot of bitcoin 13:04 i'm not talking about units of bitcoin 13:05 i'm talking like bitcoin as a thing um 13:08 so for you a lot of bitcoin may be 0.1 13:11 bitcoin for me a lot of bitcoin may be 13:14 more than 0.1 bitcoin but you know when 13:16 i say a lot of bitcoin i'm talking i'm 13:18 not talking in discrete units i'm 13:20 talking in uh sort of amounts of bitcoin 13:23 um so anyway um that's all i know to do 13:26 what i know to do is to focus on the 13:27 long term make sure my finances can 13:29 handle volatility make sure that if 13:32 bitcoin dips in the near term that i'm 13:35 either i've if you're in a situation you 13:37 where you absolutely cannot handle a dip 13:40 in the price of bitcoin then you you're 13:42 stuck having some reserves which sucks i 13:44 mean it absolutely sucks to have to have 13:46 us dollar reserves to handle a dip um 13:50 but if you're in that situation it is 13:52 what it is you've got to do what's best 13:53 for you i'm in the situation where i 13:56 have enough bitcoin that i'm i can ride 13:58 out a dip and i'm fine with that and you 14:01 know 14:01 what i'm i'm going to end up paying i'm 14:04 going to end up spending some bitcoin 14:06 when it's lower than the price i paid 14:07 for it and you know what with that my 14:09 paycheck every two weeks i'm going to 14:10 end up buying bitcoin at that price too 14:13 and at that price you know when i'm 14:15 spending that bitcoin the newly bought 14:16 bitcoin i'm buying at a price that's 14:18 significantly higher than the price i 14:20 paid for it in the future well it'll all 14:22 work out in the wash and i'll end up 14:23 being sub substantially up that's the 14:25 way it works in the long term so um 14:27 obviously this is not financial advice 14:29 nothing i ever post is financial advice 14:31 legal advice tax advice accounting 14:33 advice none of it's any professional 14:35 advice it's just my random opinions of 14:37 what's worked for me and if i had us 14:40 dollars right now i would buy bitcoin 14:42 for the bitcoin i do have right now i'm 14:44 not liquidating it i'm not even 14:46 liquidating the bitcoin i know i'm going 14:48 to need one month from now to pay off 14:50 this whole house generator for $20,000 14:52 i'm not even liquidating bitcoin for 14:54 that because my finances can handle a 14:56 dip and if it does dip and i bought 14:58 $14,000 of bitcoin at 109 and i 15:01 liquidate bitcoin at you know 85 to pay 15:06 for a whole house generator so what i 15:09 take a loss one time on top of a bunch 15:11 of gains i mean if you if you win 80% of 15:14 the time and you lose 20% of the time 15:16 keep playing that game so um the reason 15:21 gambling is a bad idea the reason 15:22 casinos are a bad idea the reason 15:25 speculating in the stock market's a bad 15:26 idea the reason day trading is a bad 15:28 idea is because you lose more than you 15:31 win and when you lose more than you win 15:34 you lose in the long term it's a losers 15:36 game it's a fool's game which is why i 15:39 don't do any of those things uh if you 15:41 invest in bitcoin it doesn't mean you 15:42 win 100% of the time it just means you 15:45 win the majority of the time and anytime 15:47 your investing involves winning the 15:50 majority of the time then you end up 15:52 really well off in the long term as long 15:54 as you don't get wiped out in at some 15:56 point in that process obviously don't 15:58 put yourself in a position where you're 16:00 going to get wiped out by one big 16:01 downturn which is why i don't recommend 16:03 people buy bitcoin with leverage uh 16:05 meaning with borrowed money if you buy 16:07 bitcoin with borrowed money especially 16:09 if you borrow against your bitcoin to 16:11 buy bitcoin with borrowed money against 16:13 your bitcoin then when your bitcoin 16:15 drops you get a margin call and a margin 16:17 call is like the worst thing ever a 16:19 margin call means if you can't post more 16:22 collateral meaning give them more 16:24 bitcoin your position gets liquidated 16:26 and you lose your bitcoin so and i've 16:28 known people that have done that so 16:29 don't borrow against a mark-to-market 16:31 asset don't borrow against bonds don't 16:34 borrow against stocks and don't borrow 16:36 against bitcoin because all of those can 16:37 get margin called 16:39 now you know you're not in the same 16:41 position if you've got a home equity 16:42 line of credit or you've got a mortgage 16:45 on your house or in my case you've got a 16:46 5-year mortgage or not a mortgage a 16:48 5-year car note on a tesla you're not in 16:51 that position there the bank's never 16:53 trust mark bank is never going to come 16:54 to me and say "hey your tesla's you know 16:57 got a few scratches on it it's not worth 16:60 what it used to be you got to post more 17:01 collateral." banks don't do that they 17:03 don't do that for houses they don't do 17:04 that for cars they loan you money and 17:07 you owe it in five years uh but if you 17:09 can't afford to make the payments on 17:10 your house or you can't afford to make 17:12 the payments on your car and you risk 17:13 losing it and you have to liquidate 17:15 bitcoin when it's down to keep from 17:17 losing your house that's the sort of 17:19 situation where you can lose a lot of 17:21 bitcoin at a price you don't want to 17:23 part with it for so make sure you can 17:24 handle that volatility i can handle the 17:26 volatility in my life which is why i'm 17:28 100% bitcoin and i can handle the 17:30 volatility that comes with being 100% 17:33 bitcoin and part of that is because i 17:34 have a paycheck i'm president of prosper 17:36 i get a paycheck every two weeks that 17:39 you know it doesn't cover all my 17:40 expenses but it covers most of them and 17:43 the rest of it if i have to pay for the 17:45 rest of my expenses with bitcoin that's 17:46 volatile including down sometimes for 17:48 the price i paid for it that's fine 17:50 because in the long term it's up a lot 17:52 more than it's down and so if i can ride 17:54 that out i'm good in the long term and i 17:56 am so and i can um but i don't want 17:59 anybody in a situation where bitcoin did 18:02 them where they ended up worse off 18:04 because of bitcoin and the only way that 18:06 happens is if you're forced to liquidate 18:08 bitcoin when you're down and please 18:11 don't put yourself in a situation um but 18:14 where you're forced to liquidate bitcoin 18:15 when it's down because you can't make a 18:17 mortgage payment or you lose your job or 18:19 you can't make a car payment or you 18:21 borrowed against your bitcoin or you 18:22 borrowed against your stock portfolio or 18:25 anything like that just make sure you 18:27 can service debt you can make payments 18:29 you're not overextended you're not out 18:31 over your skis just don't get yourself 18:33 in trouble and bitcoin will continue in 18:36 the long run to be the best asset that's 18:38 ever existed i am certain of that you 18:40 just got to be able to handle that that 18:42 volatility in the short term which is 18:44 why i did a video back up at 111,000 18:46 bitcoin saying "hey we're at a record up 18:49 here at 111 not a soul in the world is 18:52 down on their bitcoin 100% of bitcoin 18:54 holders are up if you can't handle the 18:56 volatility take some chips off the table 18:59 get where you can now there's obviously 19:02 a few people who have bought bitcoin at 19:04 above 105,500 which is where it is right 19:06 now including me because back when i did 19:08 the video at 111,000 it was a record 19:10 literally a record while i was recording 19:12 the video which means not a soul in the 19:14 world had bought bitcoin for more than 19:15 the current price because it was 19:17 literally setting records as i was 19:18 recording the video so it was impossible 19:20 to have bought bitcoin in the past at a 19:22 price higher than the current price 19:23 because literally it had never been 19:25 higher than that price so in that video 19:27 back at 111,000 i said if you cannot 19:29 handle the volatility you can get off 19:31 the train um so i'll say the same thing 19:34 here not that nobody's bought above you 19:36 know 105,500 but the vast majority of 19:39 people the bitcoin they hold they bought 19:41 at less than 105500 or the cost basis of 19:45 all their bitcoin meaning the combined 19:47 price of all the bitcoin is below 19:50 105,500 um so if you cannot handle the 19:52 volatility please adjust accordingly 19:56 please only hold the amount of bitcoin 19:58 that you can handle and that you're not 19:60 going to get forced to liquidate you 20:02 know in a downturn um it happens and i 20:05 just don't want it to happen to anybody 20:07 um so anyway um what would i do if i had 20:10 more money us dollars to buy bitcoin i 20:13 would buy more bitcoin right now because 20:14 i can handle that volatility i've been 20:16 through it before i've been through the 20:18 downturn after 2017 i've been through 20:20 the downturn after 2021 i'll be i can 20:23 make it through the downturn of 2026 if 20:26 there you know 2025 i should say 2025 uh 20:29 again the four-year cycle tends to 20:30 involve peaks in 2013 17 21 and possibly 20:34 25 although historically the highest of 20:37 those peaks has always been late in the 20:38 year not early in the year now again 20:40 according to safe amos the launch of the 20:42 bitcoin etfs may have moved that up but 20:44 natalie brunell makes a really good 20:45 point of yeah but we have not had a 20:47 blowoff top a blowoff top is this 20:49 parabolic rise followed by a crash we 20:52 haven't had that parabolic rise the the 20:54 march up to $112,000 bitcoin has been a 20:57 pretty steady solid measured march it 21:01 hasn't been these insane rises like you 21:03 saw in 2013 2017 and 2021 and the reason 21:07 you get that big price correction is 21:08 because you get this insane 21:09 unsustainable rise and there's just not 21:12 enough demand to keep that going and 21:14 then at some point the price drops back 21:15 to something that the demand can 21:17 actually sustain which is what happened 21:19 after 2013 2017 and 2021 the price drops 21:23 back to a price level that the demand 21:24 can sustain and then it keeps marching 21:26 forward um but again you don't want to 21:28 be somebody who bought in a you know 21:31 radical upswing that was unsustainable 21:33 and then when the price drops back um to 21:37 a price that the demand can sustain 21:39 you're stuck liquidating your bitcoin at 21:41 a price lower than you paid for it i 21:42 just don't want anybody to be in that 21:43 situation so um stay safe out there um 21:47 make sure you can handle volatility make 21:49 sure you can handle downturns i still 21:51 think again in my case i buy more 21:53 bitcoin any chance i get with every 21:55 paycheck every two weeks every 21:58 opportunity i get if there's us dollars 21:60 i buy more bitcoin um that's just what i 22:03 always do um and works great for me but 22:05 i can handle the volatility make sure 22:07 you can as well so over the coming days 22:09 weeks and months we will find out is the 22:12 sort of cautious pessimism of safeodine 22:15 an sedine amis warranted um do we get a 22:19 two a rise to $200,000 followed by a you 22:22 know significant crash and look if it 22:24 goes to 200,000 and it crashes 50% we're 22:27 still at 100,000 which is barely lower 22:28 than now although he says we could crash 22:30 more than that nobody knows literally 22:32 nobody knows not a soul on the planet 22:34 even knows um or do we get you know the 22:37 big print that the book literally the 22:40 book called the big print that just came 22:41 out by uh lawrence uh larry leard um uh 22:46 or larry lawrence leard however you say 22:49 it the big print those three words the 22:51 big print the book just came out earlier 22:53 this year do we get the big print that 22:55 lori larry leard is talking about and 22:57 that jack mullers is talking about and 22:59 that i think is going to happen um do we 23:01 get that and do we get a huge sustained 23:04 rise in the price of bitcoin that lasts 23:05 for a long time and everybody on the 23:07 planet is talking about whether you 23:09 bought a bunch of bitcoin before it or 23:11 after it nobody knows nobody knows just 23:14 make sure you can handle all scenarios 23:16 um and the best way to make sure you can 23:18 handle is buying bitcoin with retirement 23:20 funds because if you're buying bitcoin 23:22 retire with retirement funds as long as 23:24 you're not planning to retire in the 23:26 next 3 or 4 years um so if you're under 23:29 the age of 60 and you're buying bitcoin 23:31 with retirement funds you're golden 23:33 you're golden because you're going to be 23:35 retiring more than four years from now 23:37 and there has never been a time that 23:39 over any four-year time span in the 23:41 entire history of bitcoin that has been 23:42 down so i think the probability that 23:44 bitcoin's higher than today's price four 23:46 years from now is 100% on a three-year 23:49 basis bitcoin has historically been up 23:51 97% of the time so if somebody said 23:53 "yeah but okay 100% of probability 23:55 bitcoin's up from today's price four 23:57 years from now." i get it what about 3 23:58 years i would say 97% of the time why 24:01 because 97% of the time over the last 16 24:04 years bitcoin's been up over any 24:06 three-year time period if somebody said 24:08 "yeah but what about only two years from 24:09 now?" i would say 67% why 67% why 24:13 because over any 2-year period over the 24:16 last 16 years there's a 67% chi chance 24:19 bitcoin's up and if you're patient by 24:21 one more year your probability of being 24:23 up jumps from 67% to 97% and if you're 24:27 even more patient it goes to 100% that's 24:29 the way bitcoin works so please be 24:31 patient uh and please don't invest 24:33 bitcoin uh money in bitcoin that you 24:35 cannot afford to lose and that you 24:37 cannot afford to just ride out and wait 24:40 or or if you're right up on retirement 24:42 you're like right there make sure you 24:44 have the ability to work to figure out 24:46 which way bitcoin's going before you're 24:48 all in like me so i've still got a 24:50 paycheck so i can handle it either way 24:52 uh hopefully this video helps nobody 24:54 knows the future make sure you can 24:55 handle the ups and downs there could be 24:57 a significant price correction around 24:58 the corner nobody knows there could be a 25:01 massive price rise right around the 25:02 corner nobody knows make sure you you 25:05 can handle anything just please make 25:08 sure you don't end up in a situation 25:09 where you're forced to 25:11 liquidate bitcoin at a price lower than 25:14 you paid for it in significant amounts i 25:16 don't care if i have to liquidate a 25:18 little bit of the bitcoin i paid you 25:19 know pay for it at 109 liquidate it at 25:22 105 buy bitcoin at 105 i have to 25:24 liquidate it at 92 i don't care but i 25:27 don't want to have to do that with like 25:28 all my bitcoin um and so if you've got a 25:31 lot of your bitcoin with a cost basis 25:33 that's up in the you know 100,000 plus 25:36 90,000 plus and that's like most of the 25:38 bitcoin you've ever bought make sure you 25:40 can handle the downturns just make sure 25:42 you can handle it because there could be 25:44 one around the corner we could also be 25:46 in for a huge price rise nobody on the 25:48 planet knows not a soul so good luck out 25:51 there i'm here for anything you need 25:52 feel free to message me anytime on 25:54 facebook messenger uh i love responding 25:57 to people's questions and i will 25:58 continue to try to be the best possible 26:00 sherpa uh on the way up the bitcoin 26:03 mountain including the valleys remember 26:06 bitcoin goes up and down on its way up 26:08 so i said up twice i said down once so 26:11 that means it goes up more than it goes 26:12 down which is why it's the best 26:14 performing asset in the world over the 26:16 last 10 years uh best performing over 26:18 the last five years certainly best 26:20 performing over the entire life of 26:21 bitcoin uh but there are ups and downs 26:24 on the way up make sure to get the two 26:26 ups you can handle the down in between