Is bitcoin going up or down in the next month or two? I don’t know, but long term it won’t matter!

00:03 Is bitcoin going up or down in the next month or two. I don't know. But 00:05 let's talk about it. Okay. So, if you 00:07 watch a lot of my videos, you know that 00:09 my advice is the same all the time, 00:10 which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can 00:12 and sit on it for as long as conceivably 00:14 possible. And please buy yourself a Bitkey 00:16 BITKEY 00:19 WORLD. Bitcoin. Sorry. Bitkey. 00:23 https://bitkey.world. 00:25 Please buy it so you don't get hacked 00:26 and scammed out of your Bitcoin. Uh, but 00:28 let's talk about the ups and downs of 00:30 Bitcoin. So, the price peaked at 00:31 $124,000 like two weeks ago and is now 00:35 currently down at $108,000. 00:37 So, that's I don't know what percent 00:39 down that is. I don't know 15% or 00:41 whatever that is. Um, and of course on 00:44 Twitter, weeping and nashing of teeth. 00:46 Oh no, the end is near. You know, people 00:49 are down on their Bitcoin. Blah blah 00:50 blah. Well, most of that weeping and 00:52 nashing of teeth is not people who own 00:54 Bitcoin. They're complaining about the 00:56 price of Bitcoin. But what they actually 00:58 own is a bunch of stupid coins that are 00:60 down like 80%. And they're upset about 01:02 it, but they don't want to complain 01:03 about the stupid coins they're down 80% 01:05 on because they're embarrassed that they 01:08 bought stupid coins. And so they're 01:09 complaining about the price of Bitcoin 01:10 as sort of a proxy for uh the fact that 01:14 they're down. Well, again, people who 01:16 are down 15% are not typically whailing 01:18 and nashing teeth. Uh but a bunch of 01:20 people again bought stuff they shouldn't 01:22 have bought that I told them not to buy. 01:24 Now, the people I'm talking to are not 01:25 doing that, but a bunch of people on 01:26 Twitter. They bought Bitcoin treasury 01:28 companies, not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin 01:30 treasury companies, which you shouldn't. 01:32 They bought Bitcoin miners, which you 01:34 shouldn't. They bought crypto tokens 01:36 other than Bitcoin, which you shouldn't. 01:38 And you know, those things, a lot of 01:40 that's down 70%, 80%, you know, some 01:43 ridiculous amount. And of course, 01:44 there's whipping weeping and nashing of 01:46 teeth, but because people are 01:47 embarrassed to say that they bought the 01:48 stupid stuff because they knew it was 01:49 stupid stuff, but they thought they 01:50 could pawn it off on somebody dumber. uh 01:53 which is the greater fool theory. They 01:54 thought they could find a greater fool 01:56 to dump it on. So they don't want to 01:57 admit that they own stupid stuff and 01:59 that they were the greater fool and so 02:00 they're complaining about the price of 02:02 Bitcoin instead even though that's not 02:04 actually what they're upset about. So 02:05 there's a lot of that going on. But the 02:07 price of Bitcoin is down from 124,000. 02:09 So the first thing I would say about the 02:11 price of Bitcoin is it just doesn't 02:13 matter in the long term. So here's 02:14 here's an analogy. Let's assume you have 02:17 a kid comes home from kindergarten and 02:20 they're just heartbroken because they 02:22 have, you know, a kindergarten crush on 02:24 somebody in their grade and that person 02:27 doesn't like them back, right? I mean, 02:28 these things happen. And what you want 02:31 to tell your kid is it just doesn't 02:32 matter, right? I mean, the number of 02:34 people that marry a kindergarten crush 02:36 is basically zero. You're just, you 02:39 know, whether the person you have a 02:40 crush on in kindergarten likes you back 02:43 just doesn't matter in the long term. 02:45 But of course, in the moment, that kid 02:48 feels like it's it's all they can see in 02:50 the world. Their entire radar is filled 02:52 with this one thing, which is the person 02:54 they have a crush on doesn't like them 02:56 back. The world is over. You know, it 02:58 everything is so sad, the end is near, 02:60 blah, blah, blah. Well, that's what I 03:02 feel like right now with the price of 03:03 Bitcoin, which is, hey, it just doesn't 03:06 matter right now in the long term 03:09 whether 03:10 Hold on one second here. Let me make 03:12 sure the audio is working. 03:14 I hope the audio was working for that 03:15 last video. I had a charger plugged in, 03:17 but hopefully it did not hijack the 03:19 audio. Um, so hopefully people 03:21 understand that like look, deceptive 03:23 doesn't matter in the long term. It just 03:25 doesn't matter at all. And who cares if 03:28 Bitcoin is down 15% in 2025? Guess what? 03:31 At every single price point throughout 03:34 Bitcoin's entire history, it's been down 03:36 15% a thousand times. In fact, I think 03:39 somebody ran the math when Bitcoin was 03:40 down like 10%. And they were like, "Hey, 03:42 Bitcoin's been down 10% a total of 1,663 03:46 times, like some ridiculously high 03:49 number that Bitcoin had been down that 03:51 percent in its lifetime." So, this just 03:54 doesn't matter. And let me illustrate 03:56 one more way which I've done in other 03:57 videos but I'll do it here which is 04:02 back when I was buying Bitcoin in 2017 04:04 and 2018 a lot of the prices were about 04:07 10% of today's current prices. So 04:10 $18,000 is the equivalent of $10,800. 04:14 $124,000 is the equivalent of $12,400. 04:18 Just all you do is you just knock a zero 04:20 off the numbers. And it was the same 04:22 thing back then that it is now. You 04:24 know, the price drops from 12,000 down 04:26 to 10,800 and oh no, it's the end of the 04:29 world. Everybody's losing money. 04:30 Everybody's all sad that they bought 04:32 Bitcoin at different prices and you 04:34 know, all that sort of stuff. And again, 04:35 it just doesn't matter in the long term. 04:36 It what matters is how much Bitcoin did 04:39 you buy. I wish I had bought way more 04:41 Bitcoin at $12,000. 04:43 And it didn't matter if I bought it at 04:45 $8,000, which is the equivalent of 04:46 $80,000 today, or $12,000, which is the 04:49 equivalent of $120,000 today. I just 04:51 wish I had bought way more Bitcoin in 04:53 2017 and 2018 at any price between 04:57 $8,000 and $12,000. Even if I had to go 04:59 back and every single Bitcoin I bought 05:02 to the present, I had to pay the highest 05:05 price I bought back then, which was like 05:06 $12,000, I would buy it all. Like I 05:09 spent all my money on Bitcoin back then 05:10 at $12,000 which was the highest price 05:12 in the whole range that it was trading 05:14 but it was still be been better off than 05:16 what I actually did which was I bought 05:18 some back then but I bought a lot more 05:19 at higher prices later. Um so it just 05:22 doesn't matter because in the long term 05:24 in the long term the price will be much 05:26 higher than it is today. So it just 05:28 doesn't matter what the price is right 05:30 now. Um so uh one other thing on that 05:33 front is the same thing happened last 05:34 year. Literally 12 months ago, the price 05:37 ran up to 73,74. 05:40 It was technically 73,800. So, let's 05:42 call it 74,000. And then the price 05:44 traded sideways for eight months. Eight 05:47 solid months. Which means there's a ton 05:49 of people that bought Bitcoin at 60 05:51 $68,000, $72,000, $64,000. 05:55 And the lowest it ever got was about 05:57 $50,000 for like a day or like a series 05:59 of hours. It was like a few hours was 06:02 below 50,000 or maybe a few minutes. I 06:04 don't It was like no time at all. Same 06:06 thing. Everybody who bought it at 68 was 06:08 all bummed out when because Bitcoin was 06:10 down in the 50s and then it was in the 06:12 60s and you know they had bought it at 06:14 68 but it was trading at 62. And again 06:16 all those people think hey it sure would 06:19 have been nice to buy more Bitcoin at 06:20 68. The same is true eventually if you 06:23 bought Bitcoin at $124,000 which it was 06:26 only out for like two seconds. So let's 06:28 assume you know a lot more people bought 06:30 Bitcoin around let's say 118. Um, I 06:32 think the b the highest I paid for 06:34 Bitcoin was one of my paychecks hit when 06:36 Bitcoin was like 122,000. So, I bought 06:39 Bitcoin myself close to within a 06:41 percentage point or two of the highest 06:43 it's ever been because that's when my 06:44 paycheck hit. And I don't ever care what 06:46 price is. I just buy Bitcoin with my 06:48 entire paycheck no matter what. Uh but 06:50 anyway, uh so again, but in retrospect, 06:54 a bunch of people right now wish they 06:56 could buy $68,000 Bitcoin, but at the 06:58 time they were all lamenting the $68,000 06:60 Bitcoin because it was at 62,000 and 07:03 they felt like it was down. Same thing's 07:04 going to happen here. Um so that being 07:06 said, knowing all that, what do you do 07:09 if you do care about the price of 07:10 Bitcoin? You're freaking out about the 07:11 price of Bitcoin. Okay, the number one 07:12 thing you can do is subscribe to James 07:15 Czech, uh who goes by checkmate or 07:17 checkmate with a Y. Um he has a Substack 07:21 and a newsletter and it costs $29 a 07:23 month $29. So $29 a month about a dollar 07:26 a day uh less slightly less than a 07:28 dollar a day and it's fantastic and he 07:30 keeps you constantly appraised of what 07:33 is exactly causing the price of Bitcoin 07:35 to go up and down based on supply and 07:37 demand. He cannot predict exactly what's 07:39 going to happen with the price of 07:40 Bitcoin, but he can give you probability 07:42 the the likelihood that the price goes 07:44 down to 80,000 versus up to 140 160,000. 07:48 uh and and even though he'll tell you he 07:50 can't tell which direction it's going to 07:52 go, he can give you a lot of insight 07:54 into why the price is behaving the way 07:56 it is. So, for example, when the price 07:59 drops from 124,000 to 108,000, instead 08:02 of freaking out, you can know that, hey, 08:04 this it's because demand for the 08:06 exchange traded funds is a little bit 08:07 soft. The Bitcoin treasury companies 08:09 have not been able to raise as much 08:11 money as they were hoping. Therefore, 08:13 their demand is softer. And you know, 08:15 you still have too many OGs with Bitcoin 08:17 that have decided that, you know, at a 08:19 price above 100,000 is a good enough 08:22 price as as any to liquidate some 08:24 Bitcoin to improve the lives of them and 08:25 their family somehow, which is the exact 08:28 same thing that happened when Bitcoin 08:29 went above $10,000. There was a ton of 08:31 people that thought Bitcoin would never 08:32 get above $10,000. And when it finally 08:34 did, they were like, "Wow, $10,000 of 08:37 Bitcoin." It just took a long time to 08:38 overcome the selling pressure of a bunch 08:40 of people that had waited many years for 08:43 Bitcoin. Not many. I mean, I guess it 08:44 went above 10,000 in 2017. Bitcoin 08:47 started in 2009. So, some of those very 08:49 early people had waited six, seven or 08:51 eight years for Bitcoin to cross 10,000. 08:54 And when it finally did, they decided to 08:56 improve the lives of them and their 08:57 family. And that involved selling some 08:58 Bitcoin. And you know, good for them. 09:01 It's the reason I could buy Bitcoin at 09:02 10,000 because someone somewhere was 09:04 selling Bitcoin for 10,000. But anyway, 09:06 if you want to feel better about all of 09:08 it, subscribe to James Check's 09:09 newsletter. It comes out twice a week. 09:11 It gives you a huge amount of insight 09:13 into why things are happening. You can 09:15 ignore all the charts and graphs and 09:17 acronyms. You don't need to know any of 09:19 that stuff. You can just listen for the 09:21 the flavor, the tone of his voice, you 09:24 know, how he talks, whether he sounds 09:26 pessimistic, whether he sounds 09:28 optimistic. And I've done two separate 09:30 videos on Facebook specifically about 09:33 how to read his reports, what to look 09:34 for, what you can ignore, all that sort 09:37 of stuff. So, uh, if you want to feel 09:40 better about the price of Bitcoin, 09:42 subscribe to James Check. Even if you 09:44 subscribe for a month and you can decide 09:45 if you like it or not. Um, so that's my 09:49 recommendation. Hope all that makes 09:50 sense. And, uh, same advice as always. 09:52 Buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold 09:54 on to it for as long as conceivably 09:56 possible. likes.