Is bitcoin still a good investment? When will bitcoin stop being a good investment?

00:02 Everyone, let's talk about is Bitcoin a 00:04 good investment still like right now and 00:07 when if ever will it stop being a good 00:10 investment? When will it be a bad time 00:12 to put money in Bitcoin? So, first of 00:14 all, I think this is just my opinion, 00:16 not tax advice, not legal advice, not 00:18 accounting advice, not any kind of 00:20 advice, not financial advice. Um, in my 00:22 opinion, yes, Bitcoin is a fantastic 00:24 investment right now at current prices 00:26 which are just under 00:28 $98,000. just under $98,000 up pretty 00:31 aggressively in the last month. Uh um so 00:34 yes, I still think it's a great 00:35 investment and the reason for that is 00:37 that adoption worldwide is still very 00:40 early. Uh very few companies have 00:42 Bitcoin on their balance sheet. A 00:44 relatively small number of total people 00:46 in the world somewhere between, you 00:47 know, less than five, you know, le 00:50 certainly less than 10%, probably less 00:51 than 5% of the world population owns any 00:55 Bitcoin at all. And most of those people 00:57 own a very small percent of their 00:59 portfolio of assets in Bitcoin. So we're 01:02 still very early in the adoption, very 01:04 early in the adoption by corporations, 01:06 very early in the adoption by nation 01:09 states, very early in the adoption by 01:11 individuals, very early in the adoption 01:13 by everyone. Which means the future 01:15 price of Bitcoin once adoption is much 01:18 more robust, much more uh I guess widely 01:22 adopted, the price will be much higher. 01:24 Certainly some price I believe well 01:27 north of a million dollars per coin 01:28 which gives you a 10x return a 1,000% 01:32 return between now and a million dollars 01:34 per coin. Um so will Bitcoin ever not be 01:38 a good investment? Well at some point 01:40 Bitcoin will transition from being an 01:43 investment to just a money. So what is 01:46 the difference between an investment and 01:47 a and a money? Well, in an investment, 01:50 you expect the price to appreciate as a 01:54 result of things like improvement 01:56 improving of the product or service, 01:59 adoption of the product or service, all 02:01 of that sort of thing. Eventually, when 02:03 it comes to money, the uh when an when a 02:06 money is fully adopted worldwide, the 02:09 thing that makes it go up in value is 02:11 what's called productivity growth. 02:13 Productivity growth means that humans in 02:16 general are about 3% better at making 02:19 any given thing year upon year on over 02:23 year. So next year we'll be about 3% 02:26 better at making cars, making cans of 02:29 you know uh Campbell soup, making Big 02:32 Macs, making whatever. Now the reason 02:34 the price of all of those things is 02:36 going is because the currency we pay in 02:38 is going down. The world is not getting 02:41 worse at making things, which is how why 02:43 they're getting more expensive. The 02:45 world is getting better at making 02:46 things. So, we're 3% better at making 02:49 things every year. But the government 02:52 prints 7% more US dollars every year. 02:55 So, instead of everything going down in 02:57 price by 3% a year, which reflects how 03:00 much better we are getting at making 03:02 things, instead the prices go 4% because 03:05 you're basically getting robbed 7% every 03:07 year. uh the 7% of value you're losing 03:11 is one the 4% or so inflation. It's 03:14 between four and 9% most of the time uh 03:17 is inflation in general. Sometimes it's 03:20 in the double digits in bouts of high 03:21 inflation for the US dollar, but in 03:24 general it's typically in the 4% to 9% 03:26 range. So you're losing that. You're 03:28 getting screwed that way. Plus, you 03:31 don't even realize it, but you're not 03:33 benefiting from the 3% reduction in 03:36 prices that would happen just because 03:38 everybody around the world gets 3% 03:40 better at making everything as a result 03:42 of better equipment, better skills, 03:45 better education, better, you know, 03:47 global infrastructure, you know, all of 03:49 that sort of stuff. So, you're getting 03:50 robbed 7%, four to 9% of that is showing 03:54 up in actual inflation data. The other 03:56 3% is human productivity growth that you 03:59 are not benefiting from because the 04:01 government took it away from you. Uh so 04:04 the more one gets adopted, the closer we 04:06 get to the point where it will just go 04:09 up 3% a year. So in a world and I 04:11 anticipate this is decades in the 04:12 future, not like now, not next year, and 04:15 not even a decade from now, let's call 04:17 it two or three decades from now. It 04:19 takes a long time for humans to adopt 04:21 things. It just, you know, it takes a 04:23 long time for humans to adopt things. It 04:25 just does. Um especially when it 04:27 involves major behavior change. Uh even 04:30 with something like Facebook, it takes, 04:32 you know, more than 20 years for most of 04:34 the world to have a Facebook account. Um 04:36 that that's for free. So it takes 20 04:39 years for something that's completely 04:40 free to get adopted worldwide like the 04:43 internet or Facebook or a Facebook 04:46 account. It takes a lot longer for 04:47 something to get adopted uh when you 04:50 have to put money on the line, which is 04:51 obviously you do because the nature of 04:53 money is you got to trade something for 04:55 it. You got to trade your labor or some 04:57 other kind of money like the US dollar, 04:59 the euro, the yen, the one, you know, 05:02 there got to be the peso, uh the 05:05 balibar, whatever it is kind of money 05:06 you got. You got to trade that or you 05:08 got to trade your labor to get Bitcoin 05:10 in the first place. So it's the adoption 05:11 is slower of monetary technologies uh 05:14 because um it requires you to uh put 05:18 time you know have skin in the game 05:19 instead of like a free Facebook account 05:21 or just surfing the internet for free at 05:23 an internet cafe or something like that. 05:25 So anyway so in in the early 05:28 monetization the uh the upside you get 05:31 is the adoption worldwide as everybody 05:34 after you figures out that Bitcoin is a 05:37 better money. uh you get the benefit of 05:39 that because the global adoption drives 05:42 the price up. Eventually, everybody gets 05:44 the benefit of a money that increases in 05:46 value rather than decreases. So even 05:49 though the very very very last person 05:52 who will ever adopt Bitcoin in the 05:54 entire planet, even though that person 05:56 will not benefit from the appreciation, 05:59 the price going up as a result of 06:01 adoption because they are literally the 06:03 last person to adopt it, they will 06:05 benefit from then holding holding a 06:07 money that goes up in value by about 3% 06:10 per year, which is a function of the 06:12 fact that, you know, the longer they 06:14 hold that Bitcoin, the better humans get 06:16 at making the things that they intend to 06:20 buy, whether that's a car or a house or 06:22 a Big Mac or a um a can of Campbell soup 06:26 or whatever it is. Humans get better at 06:28 making stuff. So, the longer you hold 06:29 the money, the cheaper the stuffs 06:32 gets. So, that is not the case with the 06:34 US dollar. The US dollar starts losing 06:36 value from the very instant you touch 06:39 it. And the longer you hold it, the 06:40 longer the more value it loses. the 06:43 longer you wait to spend it, the more 06:44 the price of the things you want to buy 06:47 have gone up. And again, that is a 06:49 direct result of government money 06:51 printing. So, um, again, Bitcoin is a, 06:54 in my opinion, a great investment right 06:57 now. It's also a great money, but it's 06:59 especially a great investment. And over 07:01 the next somewhere between 10 years and 07:04 25 years, it will transition to being 07:07 mostly an investment for most people to 07:09 mostly a money for most people. And uh 07:12 it will still at the very end of global 07:14 adoption, it will still go up 3% per 07:16 year, which is way better than the 07:18 current money that loses 4% to 9% per 07:21 year. So it'll still be way better for 07:23 everybody. But in 25 years from now, if 07:25 somebody calls me out of the blue and 07:27 says, "Joel, I heard you're super into 07:29 Bitcoin. I heard it did really well for 07:31 you. Should I buy Bitcoin as an 07:33 investment and plan to get rich?" I 07:35 would say, well, no, because everybody 07:37 else on the planet has already adopted 07:39 it. Instead of like 5% of the people 07:41 right now, which means if you're buying 07:43 Bitcoin right now, you're ahead of 95% 07:45 of the world. 25 years from now, you 07:47 might only be ahead of 5% of the world. 07:50 I would say, look, yeah, you can go buy 07:52 Bitcoin. Maybe it's a million dollars a 07:54 coin, maybe 2 million a coin, maybe 07:56 three million a coin. You can go buy 07:58 Bitcoin 25 years from now. It'll still 08:01 be a great money and there will still be 08:03 a little bit of economic upside as a 08:06 result of global adoption, but that 08:09 might mean instead of your money earning 08:11 purchasing power at 3% a year, maybe it 08:13 earns purchasing power at 4% a year 08:15 because you get the 3% human 08:17 productivity growth plus maybe another 08:19 percent as a result of global adoption 08:21 and population growth and things like 08:24 that. Uh but 25 years from now, Bitcoin 08:27 is not going to be an amazing rockstar 08:29 investment because everybody's going to 08:31 be using it already. And just like 08:33 anything else in the world, um again, 08:36 that doesn't mean companies like 08:37 Coca-Cola or Amazon or Apple or 08:40 Microsoft or Facebook or Google doesn't 08:44 or Tesla, you know, Tesla's a much 08:46 younger company than those others. Let's 08:47 just say the other companies that are 08:48 all, you know, three or four decades old 08:50 or in the case of Coca-Cola, like, you 08:52 know, more than 100 years old. That 08:54 doesn't mean any of those are bad 08:55 investments. You should just not buy 08:57 Coca-Cola stock expecting to 10x your 08:59 money in 10 years. You know, you're just 09:01 humans are not going to start drinking 09:03 Coca-Cola fast enough. And that the 09:06 global adoption of Coca-Cola and the 09:08 percentage of people who drink Coke 09:10 products is not going to 10x in the next 09:14 10 years. Absolutely, that can happen 09:16 for Bitcoin. It is not going to happen 09:18 for Coca-Cola. It probably, you know, 09:21 maybe it can happen for Amazon. Maybe it 09:22 can happen for It probably can't happen 09:25 for Google. Again, most of the world 09:26 already uses Google for their search 09:28 engine. And Google has other products, 09:30 but most of the world's already using 09:32 Google. Most of the world's already 09:34 using YouTube and their other major cash 09:36 cows that Google owns. So, you're 09:38 probably not going to make 10x your 09:40 money on Google in the next 10 years. 09:42 You absolutely still can make 10x your 09:44 money on Bitcoin. And regardless of what 09:46 return you get on Bitcoin, I believe it 09:49 will be better than the return you could 09:51 have gotten with any other investment. 09:53 And that's really all you can hope for. 09:55 Nobody knows what the future holds for 09:56 any asset you could possibly store your 09:59 wealth in. But if Bitcoin outperforms 10:02 every other major asset over the next 10 10:04 years, like it already did the last 10 10:06 years, what matters is that every dollar 10:09 in Bitcoin ends up better off than every 10:11 other dollar you could have put in every 10:13 other thing. And there's really no more 10:16 you can hope for than that is that you 10:18 outperformed every other asset. So, uh I 10:20 think it's a great time to buy Bitcoin. 10:22 Bitcoin is still early in the adoption 10:23 cycle, which means it is a fantastic 10:26 investment and a fantastic money and 10:29 currency. Uh over the next call it 20 or 10:32 30 years, it will transition to being 10:35 less good as an investment because most 10:37 of the people who are ever going to 10:39 adopt Bitcoin will have already adopted 10:41 it. Uh but again today that presents 10:43 like 5% worldwide. So huge amount of 10:45 upside still there. But over time that 10:48 will uh transition where it will mostly 10:50 just be a money uh as opposed to an 10:53 investment. It will just be a money and 10:55 it will be the world's best money and 10:57 that will serve the world very well and 10:59 everybody who uses it will be better 11:00 off. But again that's different than 11:02 making 10x your money in 10 years. Uh 11:05 which is I think very doable with 11:07 Bitcoin right now. So hope all that 11:09 helps. Have a great day everyone. 11:10 Thanks.