Is Bitcoin’s “4-Year Cycle” REALLY Coming to an End?

00:01 Are four-year price cycles in Bitcoin 00:04 officially over? Well, we don't know. 00:06 But let's talk about what they are and 00:08 the probabilities each way. Okay, so 00:11 what is the 4-year price cycle or for 00:14 short the four-year cycle? Well, 00:16 Bitcoin's price has always eventually 00:18 gone up over time, but in the past, for 00:21 the last 16 years, it's gone up not in a 00:24 straight continuous line, but in price 00:27 cycles. What is a price cycle? A price 00:29 cycle is where the price of Bitcoin 00:31 starts to go up and then it starts going 00:33 up more and then it starts going up more 00:35 and then you get what's called a blowoff 00:37 top. A blowoff top is when the price 00:39 goes up very quickly in a relatively 00:41 short period of time and blowoff tops 00:44 are then followed by a correction. A 00:46 correction is when the price because it 00:48 got so ahead of itself in the blowoff 00:50 top comes back and down to something 00:52 more reasonable and then the price cycle 00:54 starts again. Now, historically, the 00:56 four-year cycles have been correlated 00:59 with the having cycles. So, Bitcoin's 01:02 new supply issuance of new Bitcoin that 01:05 is issued every 10 minutes to the 01:07 Bitcoin miners has uh has a cycle that 01:10 every four years it cuts in half and it 01:13 just so happens to align with the years 01:15 of the presidential elections in the 01:17 United States. So, that was 2012, 2016, 01:20 2020, and 2024. And historically what 01:23 has happened is that having cycle has 01:26 started the next bull run meaning up 01:30 optimistic run. And that bull run has 01:34 eventually peaked out the year after the 01:37 having in a big parabolic upward swing 01:41 that is then followed by a significant 01:44 price correction. Now over time the 01:46 magnitude of those huge upswings has 01:49 been lower because the asset Bitcoin as 01:51 an asset is more mature and the price 01:54 corrections have been shallower meaning 01:56 less painful following those huge price 01:59 runs. But that has been the history of 02:01 it. The most recent price cycle would 02:04 have been the 2022 well let me put it 02:07 this way would have started after the 02:09 2017 bull run which then 2018 came way 02:12 back down. Then it rebuilt in 2019 and 02:14 2020. And then 2021 was a huge up year 02:18 followed by a price correction in 2022. 02:20 And then the price rebuilt in 2023, 2024 02:24 and so far in 2025. But this time has 02:28 been very different and the reason is we 02:30 have not had a huge parabolic upswing. 02:34 So the price has marched up nicely. It's 02:36 gone up in you know a handful of days. 02:38 Big swings to the upside. But then 02:40 rather than going through a correction, 02:42 the price is then stabilized and ground 02:45 sideways. Sometimes called 02:47 consolidation, sometimes called chop 02:49 solidation because the price is either 02:51 chopping sideways or it's consolidating, 02:54 meaning it's trading in a relatively 02:55 tight price range. And it's done that 02:58 for between 3 months and 9 months and 02:60 then it goes up again. So the price 03:02 stayed below $20,000 for a series of 03:04 months. Then it traded in the 20,000s 03:07 for a ser, you know, for a series of 03:08 months. Then it bounced around in the 03:09 30,000s, 40,000s, then up to the 70 sort 03:13 of 50 to 70,000s. It stayed there for a 03:16 good while and then it went up to the 90 03:18 to 100,000s. Now we are in the sort of 03:21 110 to 120,000. And the question is, how 03:24 long are we going to be in this 110 to 03:27 $120,000 range? And are we going to get 03:30 a huge parabolic price rise? Let me tell 03:33 you what that looks like if we got one. 03:35 If it what it looks like is the price 03:37 starts to run and then over a relatively 03:39 short period of time the price goes from 03:41 let's call it $120,000 up to between 03:44 180,000 and perhaps 220,000. 03:48 And if that price increase happens very 03:50 quickly over a relatively short period 03:52 of time, then it tends to be 03:54 unsustainable at that level. That does 03:55 not mean we will not end up at 180 or 03:58 220,000 eventually. It just means it 04:01 tends to be unsustainable if it happens 04:03 very very quickly because there's just 04:05 not enough new adoption of people 04:08 adopting Bitcoin to sustain it at the 04:10 price level. So while there's, you know, 04:12 there's demand, speculative demand to 04:15 drive the price that high, there's not 04:17 enough real adoption to hold the price 04:19 that high. Again, there always is 04:20 eventually, just not when it all happens 04:23 very quickly at one time. So if that 04:25 happens towards the end of this year, 04:27 early next year, something like that, we 04:29 suddenly get a price run from, let's 04:31 call it 120 to somewhere between 180,000 04:33 and 220,000, then it is likely if that 04:36 happens very quickly, that that would be 04:38 followed by a price correction and the 04:40 price would drop back down to I don't 04:42 know 120,000. You know, if it goes from 04:45 220 to 120, that's, you know, not 50% 04:49 but it's, you know, I don't know, 45% or 04:50 whatever it is. So that is what a price 04:53 cycle would look like if we get one. But 04:56 again, this cycle has not looked that 04:59 way. This cycle has been instead marked 05:01 by an upswing in the price by maybe 10 05:04 or 20%, grind sideways for 3 to 6 05:07 months, go up another 10, 20, 30%, grind 05:10 sideways for 3, 6, 9 months, go up 05:13 another 10, 20, 30%, grind sideways. 05:16 Now, so about 60% of the people think 05:19 we're done with price cycles because the 05:21 Bitcoin exchange traded funds, ETFs, 05:23 were approved in January of 2024. So 05:26 that's been more than 18 months ago. 05:28 Wall Street is now adopting Bitcoin in a 05:31 significant way. Lots of more people are 05:33 hedging their bets. This is, you know, 05:34 bets. There's not there's not the same 05:36 level of just very uh speculative 05:40 retail, meaning retail means 05:41 nonprofessional. There's not as many 05:43 just crazy people sitting in front of 05:44 their laptops buying and selling Bitcoin 05:46 who have no idea what they're doing. And 05:48 that tends to make anything that looks 05:50 like a price cycle worse because those 05:52 people tend to buy on the way up and 05:53 sell on the way down which makes cycles 05:56 uh more pronounced versus professional 05:58 traders who are smart enough to 05:60 generally not be buying more when 06:02 something is going crazy up and then of 06:04 course when it comes back down they're 06:06 they're buying it because it's on sale 06:07 which tends to smooth out those cycles. 06:09 So about 60% of people think that price 06:11 cycles are behind us and we're not going 06:13 to get that sort of uh high magnitude 06:17 change. But that leaves about 40% who 06:19 are saying, "Nope, price cycles are 06:20 still with us." And what's going to 06:22 happen is the price is going to start to 06:24 rise. And then everybody's going to say, 06:26 "Well, it just does this." And then 06:27 we're going to grind sideways. But 06:28 enough people are going to notice that 06:29 we just keep grinding sideways and then 06:31 up, gr sideways up, sideways up, 06:33 sideways up. That people are going to 06:34 say, "Well, this asset's pretty 06:35 amazing." Uh who doesn't want to know 06:37 own an asset that grinds sideways but 06:39 then always eventually goes up and then 06:41 people will start speculating. People 06:42 will start using leverage which means 06:44 borrowed money to buy more Bitcoin. And 06:47 that demand of people who think that 06:49 price cycles are over is exactly what 06:52 creates a price cycle. Because as soon 06:54 as people think any asset can't go down 06:56 anymore or just doesn't ever go down 06:58 anymore, they start buying more of it 07:00 than they can afford to hold. they start 07:02 buying that asset with borrowed money 07:04 and at some point they have to pay back 07:06 that borrowed money and then they end up 07:07 upside down and blow up, you know, blow 07:09 up their portfolio and all that, which 07:11 is not something any of you should do 07:12 because you should never buy Bitcoin 07:14 with borrowed money. But anyway, if that 07:16 starts to happen, then we will see a 07:19 price cycle because that's exactly what 07:20 triggers a price cycle. So, I tend to 07:23 agree with the 60%. Although the the 07:26 caveat when I guess maybe I'm more 07:28 50/50. Um the caveat here is anything 07:31 that grids sideways and goes up 07:33 consistently produces huge returns year 07:36 after year after year. And it's only a 07:38 matter of time till people notice that 07:39 and then again they start speculating on 07:42 the upside buying it with borrowed money 07:44 which creates exactly the huge upside 07:46 run that causes that cycle to repeat. 07:49 So, you know, it's sort of a 07:50 self-fulfilling prophecy if people are 07:52 like, "Well, cycles are over and now it 07:54 just goes up eventually all the time." 07:56 Well, that's exactly the sort of thing 07:57 that would make people speculate on that 07:59 and buy it with borrowed money because 08:01 it always eventually just goes up. And 08:02 then, of course, that is exactly what 08:04 produces the uh the parabolic rise 08:07 followed by then a price crash because 08:09 it wasn't sustainable. So, I don't know. 08:11 I'm more 50/50 of our price cycles over. 08:13 Now, what can you do? because we don't 08:15 know whether it's 6040 they're over 08:18 whether it's you know 50/50 08:21 the same strategy applies in all 08:23 situations which is if you buy as much 08:24 Bitcoin as you can right now then it 08:27 doesn't matter because if the price does 08:29 take off from 120,000 up to 180 or 220 08:33 so what you just ride it out is it going 08:35 to stay up there probably not it 08:37 probably will go through a correction 08:38 but you don't know how high it's going 08:40 to go you don't know how deep of a 08:41 correction it will go through so but if 08:44 but if you buy Bitcoin before that 08:45 happens, you don't have to care. So, for 08:48 somebody like me, I don't actually care. 08:49 If we go through a huge parabolic rise, 08:51 sure, I'll take it. I might buy buy 08:54 myself some nice things when the price 08:56 seems crazy. Uh, which means go on a 08:58 nice vacation. I don't know, buy myself 09:00 an electric jet ski or I don't know, 09:02 something. I don't think I will. But, 09:04 you know, if there's something nice I 09:05 want and Bitcoin's up at 220,000 a coin 09:08 and it seems unsustainable up there, 09:10 hey, you know, if there's something nice 09:12 you want or some expense you want to pay 09:15 off or something like that, not a bad 09:16 time to do it if the price seems like 09:18 it's going crazy. Um, now the reverse is 09:21 also true that um, you know, if when the 09:23 price is down, you can not worry about 09:25 it. You can just hold. there's no reason 09:27 you have to worry about what the price 09:28 is going to be uh you know short or long 09:31 term if you're just holding because if 09:33 we don't go through a parabolic rise and 09:35 we all just chill out and Bitcoin keeps 09:38 grinding higher grinding higher grinding 09:39 higher and boring us all to death on the 09:42 way to a million dollars per coin well 09:44 great you also you're in a good spot 09:46 because you're buying Bitcoin and 09:47 holding so the way people get upside 09:49 down on these things is they don't buy 09:52 the Bitcoin right now they wait and they 09:55 let the parabolic rise in price 09:58 be the validation that it's a good 10:00 asset. So as the price rises 140, 160, 10:04 180, they use the price as their 10:06 validation that Bitcoin is amazing, 10:08 which means they're buying it only after 10:10 the price rise. And that is a problem 10:13 because at 180,000, you know, if it 10:15 happens in the course of a month from 10:17 120 to 180, I can't tell you how 10:19 sustainable that is. I can't tell you 10:21 how high it's going to go. And no matter 10:23 how high it goes, I can't tell you if 10:25 it's going to have a price correction 10:26 after it goes that high or not. The 10:28 short take is nobody knows. And because 10:30 nobody knows, you don't want to be in 10:33 the position where you're trying to 10:34 decide if you should buy a lot of 10:36 Bitcoin when the price is just going 10:37 crazy. It's way, way, way better to make 10:40 the decision to buy Bitcoin when the 10:42 price is not going crazy. Now, the good 10:44 news is the price is not going crazy 10:45 right now. Uh that doesn't mean we're 10:47 not sitting at 117,000. And so, you 10:50 know, it's it's not, you know, it's not 10:53 at a ultra deep discount compared to the 10:55 recent past. Um, but it is, you know, 10:58 below its all-time high. And we've been 11:00 grinding around sidewaysish, 11:02 you know, in the $100,000 range for 3 or 11:05 4 months now, which means it feels like 11:07 it can go higher and sustainably. So, 11:10 so, do I think it's a good time to buy 11:12 Bitcoin? Yes. It's never a bad time to 11:13 buy Bitcoin. And it's a lot easier 11:15 decision to buy Bitcoin right now than 11:18 to wait for a huge parabolic rise, 11:20 suddenly get intense fear of missing out 11:22 and be stuck because I know what's going 11:24 to happen. The prices, if it does go 11:26 through a parabolic rise like that, 11:27 people are going to be texting me as the 11:29 price, you know, leaps from 120 to 140 11:31 to 160. There's going to be all these 11:33 people texting me and messaging me on 11:35 Facebook Messenger saying, "Okay, Joel, 11:37 I'm convinced. I should have listened to 11:38 you all all along. Now I'm ready to buy 11:40 Bitcoin. Should I buy Bitcoin now?" And 11:42 I'm going to say the same thing I always 11:44 say. Well, it's unfortunate that you 11:46 waited for $160,000 Bitcoin instead of 11:49 buying $120,000 Bitcoin. It's never a 11:52 bad time to buy Bitcoin, but it was a 11:54 better time to buy Bitcoin before this 11:56 huge price rise. So, don't let the price 11:59 of an asset be your determinant of 12:02 whether you think it's a good investment 12:03 because that means you're only ever 12:05 buying it after a big price increase. 12:07 And the best time to buy anything is 12:09 when it's steeply discounted. And the 12:11 next best time is when it's discounted. 12:13 And the next best time is when the price 12:14 is boring and grinding sideways, which 12:16 is kind of where we are in Bitcoin right 12:18 now. Uh the worst time to buy any asset, 12:21 again, never a bad time to buy Bitcoin, 12:23 but the the least good time to buy 12:25 Bitcoin is when it's in a huge parabolic 12:28 price run and everybody on the planet's 12:30 talking about it and everybody, you 12:32 random person is buying Bitcoin for the 12:34 first time and has no idea what it is. 12:36 and you're stuck in that c, you know, 12:38 you're stuck up there buying $160,000 12:40 Bitcoin with the masses. That is not 12:42 where you want to be. You want to have 12:43 bought all your Bitcoin before it does 12:45 that. Um, and that way you can just ride 12:47 it out. And is it sustainable? Is it not 12:49 sustainable? Doesn't matter in the long 12:51 term it'll be a lot higher. So, who 12:52 cares if at the short term, you know, 12:55 one price is sustainable or not 12:56 sustainable? It just doesn't matter 12:58 because if you're holding it for the 12:59 long term, then who cares if uh, you 13:01 know, the price bounces around? It goes 13:03 high, it goes low, it comes back, it 13:05 reverses. It just none of that matters 13:07 as long as you have a long-term focus 13:10 and you can just ride it out. So, where 13:13 I am with 100% Bitcoin allocation, 13:15 meaning all of my liquid assets are in 13:16 Bitcoin. I do not own any stocks, any 13:18 bonds, or any US dollar cash. My wife 13:21 does manage a small emergency reserve 13:23 fund that is not in Bitcoin because I 13:25 have a very high risk tolerance and I 13:27 wanted her to manage some money uh that 13:30 was in that was not allocated the same 13:32 way I allocate it. But for all the money 13:34 which is the vast majority of our wealth 13:36 that I control or manage or oversee, it 13:39 is 100% Bitcoin. And I feel great about 13:42 that. And you know what? Are four-year 13:44 cycles over? I don't even care. If they 13:46 are over, great. If they aren't over, 13:48 great. I don't care because I'm already 13:50 allocated. And if you're already 13:51 allocated, you don't have to care. If 13:53 you're not allocated, then the price is 13:55 going to take off and then you're going 13:56 to be in a tough spot trying to decide 13:58 whether you want to buy $140,000 13:60 Bitcoin, $160,000 Bitcoin, or $200,000 14:03 Bitcoin. And it's just a lot easier to 14:04 make that decision right now when we're 14:06 not there.