Is now a good time to buy bitcoin? Yes, here’s why

00:01 Now, a good time to buy Bitcoin? Yes. 00:03 But it's important to understand why. 00:05 First of all, Bitcoin is at a $ 109,000 00:08 right now. And I personally have bought 00:10 tens of thousands of dollars of Bitcoin 00:12 at a price above $110,000. 00:15 So, while I'm way up on the vast 00:17 majority of the Bitcoin I've ever 00:18 bought, I am also down on tens of 00:21 thousands of dollars of Bitcoin I bought 00:22 at a price higher than today. So, 00:24 Bitcoin is uh significantly below its 00:26 all-time high of $124,000. So, it is on 00:29 sale right now, but of course, we don't 00:31 know. It could be more on sale in the 00:34 future. And if you ask people like James 00:36 Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, 00:38 what's the lowest that Bitcoin could 00:40 ever go in the future? He would say 00:42 probably $80,000. So, you're probably 00:44 thinking, wait, why would Joel Obamar 00:47 buy Bitcoin right now if there's a 00:49 chance it'll go lower? And the answer is 00:51 because of the disparity, the difference 00:54 between the upside versus the downside. 00:57 Let's say there is a chance Bitcoin goes 00:59 down to $80,000 for a matter of hours or 01:02 days or something before it marches back 01:04 up to 150,000. So, let's say we're we're 01:07 all certain that Bitcoin's going to 150 01:09 in the next, you know, 6 to 12 months, 01:11 probably by the end of the year, 01:12 frankly, but who knows? And we're all 01:15 certain it's going to go to a million 01:16 dollars in the next 5 to 10 years, which 01:19 I think is a, you know, reasonable 01:21 estimation. Uh so uh and again it has to 01:24 go to more than a million dollars per 01:25 coin just to match the price of gold. 01:28 And gold is just an inert yellow rock. 01:30 And Bitcoin can be sent over the 01:32 internet and used as money in a way gold 01:34 never can and never will. So why do I 01:37 say now is a good time to buy it at 01:38 $109,000 if it could go lower? And the 01:41 answer is because nobody knows if it 01:43 will go lower. And the difference 01:45 between the upside and the downside is 01:47 so profound that it makes absolutely 01:50 zero sense to try to time it and hope it 01:54 goes lower. It just doesn't make any 01:56 sense. Now, if it does go lower and you 01:58 decide you want to buy more Bitcoin than 01:60 you originally anticipated because it's 02:02 on sale, great. Good for you. I 02:04 recommend that. Uh but I do not 02:06 recommend waiting with Bitcoin that 02:08 you've with money uh US dollars that you 02:12 have already decided that you are going 02:13 to turn into a better money which is 02:15 Bitcoin. I don't recommend waiting for a 02:17 dip. Let me give you an example. Let's 02:19 just use the round number of a million 02:21 dollars per coin which Bitcoin would not 02:22 even be as an asset as big as gold at a 02:25 million dollars per coin. Uh all the bit 02:27 all the gold in the world is worth $24 02:29 trillion. Bitcoin is only worth less 02:31 than 2.4 trillion. So, Bitcoin's worth 02:34 less than 10% of the the value of the 02:36 gold in the world, which means Bitcoin 02:38 needs to go up by a factor of 10 even to 02:40 start getting close to parody. So, uh 02:43 10x is a,000%. So, Bitcoin needs to go 02:46 up a,000% even to get in the same league 02:48 as gold. Uh so, what if you think, you 02:51 know, I don't know what the exact 02:52 percent down to 80,000 is? Let's call it 02:54 30%. It's not exactly 30%, but 109 down 02:57 to, you know, 80,000, I don't want to do 02:59 the math in my head, so let's call it 03:01 30%. Let's say you think Bitcoin might 03:03 drop by 30%. Okay, but that tradeoff is 03:06 30%. You're trying to capture 30% down 03:11 by potentially giving up 1,000% up. So, 03:15 let's, you know, let's say you walk in, 03:18 uh, you know, to any odds game where 03:20 you, you know, you could win one way or 03:22 you could lose another way and somebody 03:23 offers you 1,00 to 30 odds. You should 03:27 always take the 1,000. Like nobody wants 03:30 to hear your Saab story about how uh you 03:33 know, hey, why didn't you buy a bunch of 03:35 Bitcoin back when it was 109? Well, I 03:38 thought it was going to go to 80. Well, 03:39 then what happened? Well, it slowly 03:41 marched to a million. Well, what'd you 03:43 do? Well, I sat on my hands because I 03:46 was waiting for 80 and it never came. 03:48 So, it's like, wait, you missed out on 03:49 1,000% return trying to get 30% more 03:54 than a,000. So you gave up a,000% return 03:58 by trying to get 1,030% 04:00 return by buying at 30% cheaper. Like 04:04 that just makes no sense. So not only 04:07 that, but even if you were convinced 04:09 that that was the best strategy to wait 04:10 for a lower price, there is a high 04:12 probability that you would not actually 04:15 buy the Bitcoin if it actually starts 04:17 going down. And the reason is because 04:18 people freak out when prices start to 04:21 fall. So as prices fall, people get cold 04:24 feet. the Bitcoin that they committed 04:26 themselves they were going to buy, they 04:27 don't. For example, I bought a lot of 04:29 Bitcoin back in 2017 and early 2018 04:32 around $9,000. And I committed to myself 04:34 that I was going to buy a lot more if it 04:37 was ever half that price at 4,500. Well, 04:40 guess what? Bitcoin ultimately did go 04:42 below $4,500 in the following months and 04:45 years uh temporarily, but I chickenened 04:49 out. I didn't have time to figure out 04:50 why it was down. I was afraid maybe it 04:52 was down for good. Maybe I had missed 04:54 the boat. Maybe I was late to the party. 04:56 Uh, you know, maybe I had missed out and 04:59 I did not buy a bunch of Bitcoin that I 05:01 could have bought at 4,500. The same 05:04 thing's going to happen to you. If 05:06 you're thinking I could buy Bitcoin at, 05:08 you know, 109,000 right now, but I'll 05:10 just wait. I'll wait for 95. I'll wait 05:12 for 85. I'll wait for 80. there's a very 05:15 good chance that when that number 05:17 arrives, if that number arrives, which 05:19 is not likely that it will, but it 05:21 could, that you are not actually going 05:23 to pull the trigger. So, what if you set 05:26 up a uh you know, a targeted order where 05:29 you say, "Hey, I'm going to force force 05:31 my river account to buy Bitcoin at 05:34 85,000 or 95,000 or 100,000 or 05:37 whatever." Guess what? There's a very 05:39 good chance as it starts dropping, 05:41 you're going to go cancel that order 05:43 because you're it's going to be dropping 05:44 and you're going to freak out like 05:46 everyone freaks out, including the all 05:48 the reasons I did not buy a bunch of 05:50 Bitcoin at 4,500. The cheapest I ever 05:52 bought Bitcoin was 6,400 because I never 05:56 bought the Bitcoin at 4,500 that I told 05:58 myself I was going to. I never did it. I 06:01 just never did it. Even if you could 06:03 eliminate the possibility that you would 06:05 chicken it out, because somebody like me 06:06 doesn't chicken it out anymore. I mean, 06:08 once once you've been around Bitcoin 06:09 for, you know, eight years, it's just, 06:13 you know, if you're going to buy it when 06:14 it gets cheaper, you buy it when it gets 06:15 cheaper. So, even if you showed up and 06:18 gave me $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000 of 06:22 your money and said, "Joel, I want you 06:25 to invest it. I don't want to have the 06:27 ability to not invest it. So, I want you 06:30 to invest my money in Bitcoin at just 06:32 the right time." First of all, I would 06:34 not do that. I'm not licensed to do that 06:35 for you. I would not do that for you. 06:37 But even if I could, even if I had like 06:39 a the license that allowed me to do that 06:41 or whatever, even if I could and you 06:44 handed me $10,000 today and you said, 06:46 "Joel, all I care about is making the 06:48 most money on my Bitcoin. You can wait 06:51 as long as you want or as little as you 06:52 want to invest it. Here's $10,000. I'll 06:55 come back in 10 years and you just tell 06:57 me what you did with it." If you handed 06:59 me $10,000 of your money and my only job 07:03 was to be a good steward of your money 07:05 and to buy as much Bitcoin as I could 07:08 with that money, I would immediately buy 07:10 as much I would immediately buy $109,000 07:14 Bitcoin with your $10,000. Like 07:16 immediately. Now, if you came back the 07:19 next day and said, "Hey, I said I wasn't 07:21 going to check in for 10 years, but here 07:22 I am the next day." What'd you do? I 07:24 would say, "Well, I just bought Bitcoin 07:26 immediately." And your answer would 07:28 probably be, "But wait, I told you you 07:30 could wait for a dip. I told you this. I 07:32 told you all I care about is how much 07:34 total Bitcoin I own in the long term." 07:36 My answer is, "Yeah, the best way to 07:37 make sure you own the most Bitcoin in 07:39 the long term is to buy it at $109,000." 07:42 Because again, going back to that thing, 07:45 I don't want you to come back in 10 07:47 years and and uh and I say and you say, 07:49 "Hey, you know, Bitcoin's over a million 07:51 dollars. Uh how much did my $10,000 turn 07:54 into?" And my answer would be uh 07:57 $10,000. And you're like, why? And I was 07:60 like, well, I waited for a dip that 08:01 never happened. And so I was hoping to 08:04 get you, you know, Bitcoin at a 5, 10, 08:06 20% discount, 30% discount. Uh but it 08:09 never came. And so, uh, turns out I had 08:12 to buy the Bitcoin. I never bought the 08:14 Bitcoin. And here's your $10,000 back. 08:16 Uh, you know, should have been 100,000. 08:18 Uh, but it's just 10,000 because I never 08:20 actually bought it. So, there's just no 08:23 way to win that one. There's just no way 08:25 to win a game of trying to time a 08:27 market. You cannot time a market. It 08:29 doesn't work for Bitcoin. It doesn't 08:30 work for stocks. It doesn't work for 08:32 bonds. It doesn't work for anything. You 08:33 can't time the market. Which is why the 08:35 saying in investing is time in the 08:38 market is better than time in the 08:41 market. So time in the market means if I 08:43 invest right now, then I have the most 08:46 time in the market because the amount of 08:48 time that that money is in bit in the 08:51 form of Bitcoin money is longer. If I 08:53 invest it immediately when I when you 08:55 give me that money, then it's in the 08:57 market longer than if I wait a week or a 09:00 month or a year and I keep hoping the 09:02 price will hit 95,000 or 105 or 92 or 88 09:07 or 82 or whatever. That is all time I'm 09:12 not in the market. And there are 09:14 numerous people throughout the history 09:15 of Bitcoin that are that never bought 09:18 because the price never got to the price 09:20 they wanted to buy. um including a 09:23 friend of mine who sold all his Bitcoin 09:24 at $10,000. Um sorry, when it was $100 09:28 Bitcoin, he sold 100 Bitcoin at uh you 09:30 know, $100 Bitcoin. Then it went up to 09:32 $30,000, which means $300. So he sold it 09:36 at $100 and then it went up to $300 and 09:38 then he was going to buy it back if it 09:40 went lower and it never did. So, uh he 09:43 could have had 100 Bitcoin, which is 09:45 worth more than $10 million right now. 09:48 It's about 11 million. He could have had 09:51 $11 million for $30,000. Uh because he 09:55 could have bought 30, you know, $300 09:57 Bitcoin, but he didn't because he had 09:58 sold it all at $10,000 10:02 for uh for 100 Bitcoin, which is $100 10:05 Bitcoin. He had sold it all at $100 and 10:07 didn't want to buy it back at $300 uh 10:09 because he was waiting for the dip. 10:11 Well, that dip never came. That the 10:13 Bitcoin was never $100 ever again. And 10:15 that's been the story over and over and 10:17 over for numerous people throughout 10:18 history, the entire history of Bitcoin. 10:20 So, um, what would I do if I had any 10:23 money to invest right now, which I don't 10:25 because it's all in Bitcoin. If I had 10:27 any at all, I would buy Bitcoin at 10:29 $109,000 or $109,400, 10:32 whatever it is. I would buy it right 10:34 now. If the price if the price pops to 10:37 $115,000 10:38 in the next five minutes and I still had 10:40 dollars, I would buy it at $15,000 10:43 because there's no other good option. 10:46 There just isn't. If you wait, you get 10:49 you risk getting left in the cold and 10:52 the disparity of the massive upside 10:54 compared to the comparatively modest 10:56 downside of a price discount you can get 10:59 by buying it cheaper. I know 11:00 psychologically it's what you want to 11:02 do. And I know psychologically it feels 11:05 like, "Yeah, but I'd feel a lot better 11:06 buying Bitcoin at 85 instead of 109." I 11:10 know that's the way you feel. But I can 11:11 tell you as someone who's regretted for 11:14 the last 8 years not buying all that 11:16 Bitcoin at 4,500 that I told myself I 11:18 was going to, that you're either not 11:20 going to do it or it's never going to 11:22 come. And the high probability that 11:24 you're never going to do it or that it's 11:26 never going to come is so high that is 11:28 absolutely not worth giving up on a 11:31 thousand% upside chasing 5 10 20 25% 11:36 downside. It's just not worth it. So my 11:39 recommendation stays the same. Buy as 11:41 much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it 11:42 for as long as conceivably possible. 11:44 That's the only formula that works. And 11:46 I wish I had done that at $9,000. not 11:49 and not promise myself that I was going 11:51 to buy more at 4500 if it ever got 11:53 there. And it did and I didn't. And I'm 11:56 all the poor for it. And so I can 11:59 continue to believe that now is a great 12:01 time to buy