Is this a “dip,“ or the start of a “bear market“? James Check has the answer!

00:02 Hey everyone, I figured I'd take my 00:04 lunch break here to give you a few 00:06 highlights of this. The latest update 00:08 from James Czech. Usually comes in on 00:10 Thursday mornings, Monday mornings and 00:12 Thursday mornings. This one arrived last 00:14 night at 8:49 p.m. And I wanted to walk 00:18 you through some highlights of it 00:20 because if you are in the position where 00:22 you have just bought a bunch of Bitcoin 00:24 above $110,000 or you're considering 00:27 buying a bunch of Bitcoin for uh above 00:30 $110,000 or at any price from here 00:32 forward, I thought you might want the 00:34 highlights from James Czech on what the 00:36 current dip looks like and whether it's 00:39 anything to be worried about. How does 00:40 it compare to last you know prior dips 00:43 in the marketplace etc. All right so I 00:46 am going to share my screen here and we 00:48 are going to look at this document which 00:50 is the latest from James Czech and I'm 00:52 going to read you some highlights with 00:54 my commentary. First he titles it that's 00:56 not a dip. He said is the fear we're 00:57 seeing about this selloff warranted and 00:60 is the damage done enough to justify 01:02 this fear? How does this compare to the 01:04 start of prior bare markets? Let's find 01:06 out. So, as we as we've talked before, 01:09 most people in Bitcoin think we are done 01:11 with the four-year cycles where the 01:13 price goes through these natural 01:15 four-year cycles where the peaks were in 01:17 2013, 17, and 21, and possibly 2025, if 01:22 we still have a cycle. Most people think 01:24 there is between a 51% and a 60% chance 01:28 that we are not going to go through 01:29 those cycles anymore because the Bitcoin 01:32 uh market is much larger than it used to 01:34 be and adoption has smoothed out 01:36 significantly. But that leaves somewhere 01:39 between a 40% and a 49% chance that we 01:43 will go through a bare market that lasts 01:45 like a year or something like that at 01:47 some point. And the question everybody 01:48 has is every time every time we hit a 01:52 new all-time high, the question 01:53 everybody asks is, "Is this the top?" 01:55 And then every time the market dips, 01:57 everybody's like, "Is this the start of 01:58 a bare market?" Everybody everybody is 02:02 like going crazy about when the price is 02:04 high, is this the top? Is this the top? 02:06 Is this the top? Because nobody wants to 02:08 buy the top and then have to, you know, 02:10 sit on an investment that's underwater 02:11 for a year or two. Um, but then every 02:14 time it dips, everybody's like, "Oh no, 02:15 is this the start of a bare market? Are 02:17 we going to be like through a brutal 02:18 year-long slog of downward marching 02:21 prices? And it's just everybody's just 02:23 all freaking out. So, James Czech, one 02:26 second. 02:30 James Czech does a much better job than 02:32 anyone else in the entire universe of 02:33 saying when the price is hitting new 02:35 all-time highs, does this feel like a 02:37 top? Is it overheated? Is there are way 02:40 too many people in way too much profit 02:41 that they just can't resist, you know, 02:43 selling and improving their lives 02:45 somehow? And so far, every, you know, 02:48 peak we've hit, he's like, "This doesn't 02:50 feel like we're there." You know, this 02:52 does not feel like a huge blowoff top, 02:54 which means a very jagged, you know, 02:56 huge runup followed by a price 02:58 correction that we got in 2013, 2017, 03:01 and 2021. So, so far, every price peak, 03:04 he said, "This just doesn't feel like 03:06 the huge blowoff top that you should be 03:07 worried about." And so far, every dip he 03:10 has said the same thing, which is this 03:11 dip does not feel like the start of a 03:14 bare market. And so far he's been right 03:17 because all of his analysis has uh 03:20 tracked exactly what Bitcoin has done. 03:22 Now why is this relevant? Why can't you 03:24 just buy Bitcoin and not worry about any 03:25 of this? The answer is you can. But 03:28 human psychology is such that people 03:30 tend to not want to buy right before the 03:32 price of something goes down because it 03:35 just makes them feel bad in the pit of 03:36 their stomach even though in the long 03:38 term it doesn't matter. So, for example, 03:41 uh if you knock a zero off all the 03:42 prices, $125,000 03:45 would be the equivalent, you know, back 03:47 five to seven years ago, of um 12,500. 03:52 And the lowest he predicts that Bitcoin 03:54 would ever go, even if this is the start 03:55 of a bare market, is like 80,000, which 03:58 again sounds insanely low, but I mean, 04:00 we dipped below that back in April 04:02 temporarily and then zoomed right back 04:05 up to 125, so who cares? Um but uh so 04:09 his his point through all of this is 04:10 like you know well let me go back to my 04:12 analogy. You know if 120,000 is 12,000 04:16 when you knock off a zero and 80,000 is 04:18 8,000 when you knock off a zero. Does it 04:20 even matter whether all the Bitcoin I 04:22 bought back in 2017 and 2018 was bought 04:24 at 8,000 or 12,000? No. All of those 04:27 numbers are so deeply in profit today 04:29 that it's just not relevant. I wish I 04:31 had bought a lot more $12,000 Bitcoin 04:33 back then instead of waiting for lower 04:35 prices and hoping I'd get it for 10,000 04:37 or 9,000 or 8,000. Like I just should 04:39 have bought as much Bitcoin as I can and 04:41 the same will be true of this in the 04:42 future. But again, humans have a 04:44 generally low tolerance for pain and 04:46 therefore we're going to walk through 04:48 this analysis. So uh again I'll is this 04:52 a dip or he says that's not a dip dot 04:54 dot dot. Is the fear we're seeing about 04:56 this sell-off warranted and is the 04:57 damage large enough to justify this 04:59 fear? How does this compare to the start 05:00 of prior bare markets? Let's find out. 05:03 So, I highlighted everything in green 05:05 that I'm going to read. It's pretty 05:06 heavy on the beginning of this update, 05:07 but then I'm going to skip a huge amount 05:09 of this update as we go on. Obviously, 05:11 I'm not reading the whole thing. I'm 05:12 reading a few highlights. Um, and my 05:14 recommendation, of course, is that if 05:16 this is interesting to you, go subscribe 05:18 to James Czech's Check onChain 05:20 newsletter, which comes out two or three 05:22 times a week. It costs $29 a month. It 05:25 is the best investment I've made in 05:27 Bitcoin other than Bitcoin. itself and 05:29 probably my Bit Key that secures my 05:32 Bitcoin from hackers and scammers. Um, 05:35 but it's it's a great investment in my 05:38 opinion. Okay. And again, when the price 05:40 dips, it it gives you good clarity of 05:42 like, should I freak out or should I not 05:44 freak out if you're into freaking out? 05:46 All right. He says the bears remember 05:49 bulls are in, you know, optimistic. 05:52 Bears are pessimistic. Bulls, because 05:54 bulls attack with their horns going up, 05:57 think markets are going to go up and 05:58 they're optimistic. Bears attack with 06:01 their claws slashing down, which is why 06:03 they're a bare market is when the 06:06 market's going down or pessimistic. The 06:08 bears are out in force. Bitcoin has 06:11 pulled back a whole dot dot dot 9 06:13 percentage points from fresh all-time 06:15 highs. And you'd think the end is nigh. 06:18 Yeah, if you go on Twitter, you know, 06:19 people are freaking out. Uh, it's once 06:22 again so over, which happens. Everybody 06:24 claims at every little dip that it's so 06:26 over. The most fascinating thing about 06:28 this cycle with no equal is how 06:29 remarkably scared so many investors get 06:32 during what are historically irrelevant 06:34 price dips. Back in my day, I wouldn't 06:36 get up for anything less than 20%. 06:39 Um, so this is a good chart. I'm only 06:41 going to cover a couple charts in here. 06:43 Normally, I recommend people just skip 06:44 the charts because they're too 06:45 complicated for, you know, mere mortals. 06:50 But this is the the price draw downs 06:51 from all-time highs throughout history 06:53 from 2016 or 2015 to the present. You'll 06:56 see a 9% dip is nothing compared to the 06:60 draw downs as high as 77% in 2022, 84% 07:04 in 2018 and um and even higher than 07:08 that. N2% 07:10 93% I think back in 2015 uh 2014 maybe 07:14 it was 2014. So short take is he 07:16 basically like look this dip is like 07:18 nothing. In all seriousness though as we 07:21 covered in soft around the edges it is 07:23 the right time to be somewhat cautious 07:25 in the immediate term simply because the 07:26 key demand drivers of the exchange 07:28 traded funds ETFs and the treasury 07:30 companies have meaningfully slowed down 07:33 here. We're however we're a long way 07:36 from needing to panic and put full bare 07:38 market goggles on. In fact, I'm not even 07:41 sure if we need to put on a bare market 07:43 monle at this point uh or just yet. 07:46 Today's po post is going to investigate 07:50 be an investigation into the damage of 07:51 the dip so far and an analysis of how 07:54 low the Bitcoin price needs to go before 07:55 we start to break the conviction and 07:57 sentiment of the bulls. I keep trying to 07:59 shorten the things I'm reading, but I 08:00 end up just gumming up the words. So, 08:03 I'll probably just read every word, 08:04 which is smoother. Um, I'm trying to 08:06 shorten this thing because I know my 08:07 videos are way too long. Okay, in this 08:09 piece I run a damage assessment focused 08:11 on how bad the unrealized losses are in 08:13 the market. The conclusion, honestly, is 08:15 that you need a microscope to see them. 08:18 That's a good thing. Not only is the 08:19 damage to investor portfolios 08:21 insignificant, but we also don't have 08:23 any meaningful evidence of fear in 08:25 realized loss metrics. That means people 08:27 actually selling at a loss. When I run a 08:30 set of simulations for how low the price 08:31 would have to go before we get 08:33 concerned, I arrive at the following 08:34 framework. below the STH short-term 08:37 holder cost basis at 108,000 put one 08:41 bare market goggle on. The market has to 08:43 reach 90,000 for $90,000 before this dip 08:46 will be on par with damage at the 2024 08:49 chop solidation which was between March 08:52 and October of 2024 and the 2025 tariff 08:56 tantrum lows which happened in April of 08:58 2025. Prior bare markets, if you can 09:01 believe it, were started by a sell-off 09:03 that would have to reach 80,000 to hit 09:05 equivalent damage. Ironically, this is 09:07 also where the cost basis for the ETFs 09:10 and the company micro strategy now 09:12 strategy is located as well as the true 09:14 market mean, which is his expected bare 09:16 floor in the case of a of a bare market. 09:18 If there is a bare market, he thinks 09:20 around 80,000 is the lowest it will go. 09:23 In my honest opinion and reserving the 09:25 right to be wrong here, the current 09:27 market conditions share far more DNA 09:29 with a dip than what than with a shot 09:32 across the bow selloff which starts a 09:34 bare market. And then he always likes to 09:36 refer to his two personas. Check the 09:38 analyst is like um you know his analyst 09:41 mind and check the hodler which is hold 09:43 on for dear life. Uh hodl hold on for 09:46 dear life is basically him as an 09:49 investor in Bitcoin that's holding for 09:50 the long uh long haul. So, as an 09:52 analyst, he says, "I'm cautious, but 09:54 somewhat optimistic. The damage is minor 09:56 at best, and until we drop below the 09:59 short-term hold your cost basis at 10:00 108,000, I remain a structural bull and 10:04 tactically expect chop solidation, 10:06 meaning we're probably going to chop 10:08 sideways for a while while the market 10:09 digests uh price points above 110,000. 10:13 Everybody gets comfortable with that. 10:14 Everybody who wants to get off the train 10:15 gets off the train. Everybody who wants 10:17 to get on the train gets on the train. 10:18 All that." Anyway, uh we've talked about 10:20 that in quite a few past videos. And 10:22 then check the hodler, which is people 10:25 like me. I'm being patient and t and 10:28 stacking Bitcoin. Uh 10:31 he calls it sat stacking, but what he 10:33 means is buying Bitcoin. Nibbles on a 10:35 tasty red days like 113,000. I'm 10:38 prepared for lower prices, but also am 10:40 ignoring the bare posters, meaning the 10:42 pessimistic posters on Twitter until the 10:44 data tells me otherwise. Uh he has his 10:46 own video. I know I do these videos 10:47 where I try to extremely simplify 10:48 everything for you, but obviously if 10:50 you're a subscriber, you get a full 10:52 video of him explaining his stuff to you 10:54 instead of me explaining it in a 10:56 simplified manner. Again, it's worth $29 10:59 a month if you just bought a bunch of 11:01 Bitcoin or you're considering buying a 11:03 bunch of Bitcoin or you like watching 11:04 the price of Bitcoin and want to 11:06 understand why it does what it does, 11:07 it's the best place to find out. I love 11:09 his content. It's the first thing I 11:11 always read. I again, I'm reading a lot 11:14 of the early part of this thing, but 11:15 then I'm going to start skipping a bunch 11:16 of it. Uh, the game plan. Before we jump 11:18 into the charts, I wanted to outline my 11:20 thought process for how I started this 11:21 analysis. Start with the initial 11:23 conditions. We know demand is soft, so 11:24 we probably are not going to head back 11:26 to all-time highs just yet. We're also 11:29 still trading above the short-term 11:31 holder cost basis of 108,000. And this 11:34 pullback is still really quite mild at 11:36 just 9%. uh cautious is the correct base 11:39 case, but I wanted to see if I should be 11:41 outright bearish and if not, what the 11:43 thresholds would would be to switch. 11:45 Okay, then I'm going to skip a bunch of 11:47 stuff here. 11:49 Uh and then he says, so long as the 11:51 price trades above the short-term holder 11:53 STH cost basis, it is still okay to be 11:55 bullish, optimistic, albeit cautiously 11:58 so. The market has been has seen value 12:00 in this region before, and it stands to 12:02 reason it will do so again. Uh if 12:05 however we start to trade into and below 12:07 this zone, watch out. Whilst we had 12:09 significant demand in this price range 12:11 before, that doesn't mean future demand 12:13 will see it the same way. The lower we 12:15 go into and below this region, the more 12:17 investors will see their recent buys go 12:19 underwater, which tends to impact their 12:21 willingness to keep chasing the market 12:22 lower. He says, "My base case is that we 12:25 will find support in this region. The 12:27 first major warning signal will be 12:29 sustained break of the short-term holder 12:31 cost basis at 108,000. Should that 12:33 occur, I think we should consider the 12:36 odds of a more protracted bearish trend 12:38 to have been meaningfully increased. 12:40 Again, if it's me and I had US dollars, 12:43 which I don't, to invest in Bitcoin, I 12:45 would invest them right now. I just 12:47 would because updates like this tell me 12:49 I'm still fine doing that. Uh, he says, 12:51 "The good news is we're not even close 12:53 to getting there yet. Not even close." 12:55 Honestly, this chart actually doesn't 12:57 look at all nasty and is in fact one of 12:60 the least nasty pullbacks of the cycle. 13:01 Again, I'm not going to cover the charts 13:03 because they're too complicated for the 13:05 vast majority of people, even some of 13:06 them for me. Yes, this dip should have 13:09 us cautious, but so far it still looks 13:11 more like a dip than a bear. It can 13:14 certainly deteriorate and the top just 13:15 might be in, but those are also 13:18 speculations for the time being. Nothing 13:19 we have seen in this data looks any 13:21 different than any other dip we have 13:23 experienced and survived so this cycle 13:25 so far. We must stay vigilant but also 13:28 shouldn't panic unnecessarily and at 13:29 least until there is significant 13:31 evidence to do so. Sorry, people are 13:33 just texting me constantly. Um, 13:37 uh, it's one thing to have a coin. Uh, 13:39 then he talks about when you should 13:41 worry, which is once everybody's 13:42 underwater on their investments by a 13:44 significant amount, people start to 13:46 freak out. It's one thing to have a 13:47 Bitcoin underwater by 5%. And 13:49 truthfully, this is just another day in 13:51 the life of a Bitcoiner. every buy will 13:53 go underwater by some small magnitude at 13:56 least at some point. It is a whole 13:58 another story when you buy a big fat 14:00 chunk of Bitcoin and then the next thing 14:02 you know you're down 30% or more which 14:04 is what tends to break people's uh 14:07 optimism which results in protracted 14:10 sideways motion or downward motion for a 14:13 period of time. He says I can't see any 14:15 red today which means we're not even 14:16 remotely close to having serious paper 14:18 losses in the market right now. meaning 14:20 people that are underwater even if they 14:21 haven't actually acted on that. Folks 14:23 sure are bearish on Twitter considering 14:25 the current dam damage is mild at best. 14:28 I am very thankful to have 2020 vision 14:30 but I still need a microscope to 14:32 properly see the unrealized losses in 14:33 the chart below. It is so insignificant 14:36 it's very hard for me to be too 14:37 concerned about it at this stage. The 14:39 vast majority of Bitcoiners are still 14:41 very uh sitting pretty moisturized and 14:45 unbothered. So that he has a you know 14:47 this is him. I mean, not actually him, 14:50 but he's like, uh, this is the meme of 14:52 who, you know, of how he feels about the 14:54 market right now and how most Bitcoiners 14:56 feel. Unbothered, moisturized, happy, in 14:59 my lane, focused, and flourishing. So, 15:02 uh, again, none of what he's seen is 15:04 making him freak out. Um, again, this is 15:08 a long update. This is I'm reading way 15:10 more than I normally would. Normally, I 15:11 just paste a couple quotes, but um, I 15:13 thought this update was super helpful. 15:16 uh again very much worth $29 a month. 15:18 Therefore, unless this market 15:19 deteriorates a lot further, there's a 15:21 decent enough chance that demand comes 15:22 back eventually, even if it requires 15:24 lower prices to motivate them. The ETFs 15:27 are of particular interest since they 15:29 have since they have come roaring back 15:31 to life after all our cho choppy 15:33 sideways doldrums to date. In short, 15:35 he's saying in the past, every time 15:37 there was a dip, the demand eventually 15:39 would outrun uh the supply and the price 15:41 would go back up. So the next step is to 15:43 ask ourselves how bad does it need to 15:45 get before the real bear arrives meaning 15:47 people really get pessimistic which 15:49 takes a lot longer to overcome with 15:51 demand. Let's start with whole with a 15:53 threshold which we can confidently deem 15:56 to be no bueno. No good. That would be 15:59 the shot across the bio selloff in prior 16:01 cycles. The shot across the bow selloff 16:04 is the horrific waterfall decline after 16:06 a market cycle peak which is so large 16:08 that it stops everyone in their tracks. 16:10 Scroll down significantly here. Skip a 16:13 bunch of charts. The market as it stands 16:15 today is experiencing almost negligible 16:18 pain. Either the bearish noise on 16:20 Twitter is hyper amplified which is true 16:23 or the commentators have grown much 16:25 softer as Bitcoin appreciates and value 16:29 seemingly also true. Meaning people who 16:31 are buying Bitcoin now just they can't 16:33 experience they haven't experienced the 16:35 pain of the volatility of the Bitcoin of 16:37 the past. So to them, 9% feels like a 16:40 bunch of pain when it's just ripping off 16:43 a band-aid and not breaking your leg, 16:45 which is what it used to feel like when 16:47 Bitcoin was a lot more volatile. Things 16:49 would have to deteriorate significantly 16:51 before we reach the true bull market 16:53 slaying pain thresholds of the past. For 16:56 the time being, I still think it's okay 16:58 to be bullish, meaning optimistic, while 16:60 we're above the short-term holder cost 17:01 basis, if cautiously so, in advance. the 17:05 extent of bearish damage at $80,000 is 17:07 about as bad as I think a modern bare 17:09 market would get. So he's saying even if 17:11 things deteriorate, even if it gets bad, 17:13 even if you know blah blah blah, he 17:16 doesn't see Bitcoin going below $80,000 17:18 and again we went down to 74,000 as 17:21 recently as April. So you know, not only 17:24 do the highs march higher, the lows 17:26 march higher. 17:28 And hopefully that is okay. A few more 17:31 things. Much like the negligible 17:32 unrealized losses, again, unrealized 17:34 losses meaning someone's underwater, but 17:37 they haven't actually sold. They're just 17:39 temporarily underwater. We're seeing 17:41 very few investors capitulating at this 17:43 stage until we see serious fear and 17:46 panic. It's hard to characterize this 17:47 sell-off as a bare market starting one 17:50 just yet. Meaning, he does not see what 17:52 he does not see this dip starting a bare 17:55 market. At least not with what he's 17:57 seeing right now. It could devolve into 17:58 one for sure, but the facts on the 17:60 ground suggest we're just not there yet. 18:03 All right, the concluding thoughts are 18:04 kind of long. Forgive me here. We set 18:06 out uh in this piece to assess the 18:08 damage and compare it to the bare market 18:10 starting shot across the bow sell-offs 18:12 of the past to basically see is this dip 18:14 something we need to worry about or not 18:16 really. And his conclusion is not 18:18 really. The truth is the damage today is 18:20 fairly negligible and it has to get so 18:23 much worse all capitals before we hit 18:25 even moderate pain thresholds. This 18:28 leaves us with a real dilemma. 18:31 It's hard to call this a bare market 18:32 because the evidence as it stands today 18:34 suggests it's far more it has far more 18:36 properties which resemble a bull market 18:38 dip, meaning just a standard dip on the 18:40 way up. By the time bare market 18:42 thresholds are hit, we could be trading 18:44 at prices of around 80,000, which is 18:46 also where I think a bare market floor 18:48 would begin being hammered out. So the 18:51 short take is like, look, at some point 18:52 the data might not look like a bare 18:54 market until we're down at 80,000, at 18:56 which point that's probably the low, 18:58 which again makes predicting anything 19:01 hard. Therefore, the correct approach is 19:02 to think through scenarios and 19:04 thresholds and most importantly what our 19:06 decisions will be in each case. Until we 19:08 break below the short-term holder cost 19:11 basis at $108,000, things are fine in my 19:14 book. If we do break it, then the odds 19:16 are we are probably in a bare market, 19:17 meaning it's probably going to march 19:19 lower into the 90s or, you know, the 19:22 80s. Uh, since demand is soft, we're 19:24 also probably not blasting off to new 19:26 all-time highs anytime soon. So, you 19:28 don't need to have fear of missing out. 19:30 Exactly. You know, Bitcoin's in in his 19:33 book probably not going to $140 and 19:35 $160,000 tomorrow. 19:38 Uh I know I'm sticking my neck out here 19:39 and I reserve the right to be very 19:41 incorrect here, but I I don't actually 19:43 think we're in a bare market. He just 19:44 outright says it. This dip is not the 19:47 bare market. I think we're in a dip. And 19:49 I think the fear we're seeing in in the 19:52 public, mainly on Twitter, is because 19:53 people don't actually hold actual 19:55 Bitcoin. They hold altcoins like XRP, 19:59 Salana, Dogecoin, you know, uh, 20:03 Ethereum, or stocks and companies that 20:06 are investing in a bunch of junk coins, 20:08 which are down significantly more than 20:09 9%. He's saying we're seeing a bunch of 20:12 fear and panic on Twitter, but it's not 20:14 because of Bitcoin. It's because people 20:16 are into crypto that is not Bitcoin, and 20:19 that crypto is getting killed. So, 20:21 Bitcoin's down 9%, but they're panicking 20:24 because they're not actually holding 20:25 Bitcoin. They're they're holding trash 20:27 that I've told you and James Czech has 20:29 told you not to buy. So people are 20:31 freaking out in cryptoland because 20:34 they're not holding Bitcoin. They're 20:35 freaking out for all their other stuff 20:36 that's plunging like a rock when Bitcoin 20:39 is holding up nicely and is only down 20:40 9%. 20:42 He says, "If I was to hazard a guess 20:43 about the future, I think we will see 20:45 our classic 80% correction. It just 20:47 might not be in the Bitcoin price." He's 20:49 like, "Yeah, we'll see an 80% price 20:51 crash in crypto, just not Bitcoin." So 20:54 yeah, all the other trash, yeah, it's 20:55 probably going down 80%. But that 20:58 doesn't matter because we're not we 20:59 don't own all the other trash. We own 21:01 Bitcoin. And so Bitcoin is in a class by 21:04 itself. So uh anyway, then he's got this 21:07 meme 80% bare call the ambulance. And 21:09 the guy says, but not for me. And pulls 21:11 a gun. And that's Bitcoin, you know. So 21:13 he's basically saying, yeah, you know, 21:15 if you're worried about stuff crashing 21:18 80%. Then yeah, if you own a bunch of 21:20 crypto trash, you probably should be 21:22 worrying about it crashing 80%. And this 21:25 might be the bare market that crashes 21:27 all a bunch of stupid crypto 80%. Just 21:29 not Bitcoin. And who cares if the other 21:32 crash uh trash crashes because you're 21:35 not supposed to be owning the other 21:36 stupid stuff anyway. So anyway, I will 21:39 stop sharing my screen there. So what 21:41 does this mean? What it means for me is 21:43 if I had US dollars to invest, I would 21:47 put it all in Bitcoin right now. I mean, 21:49 that's just what I would do. Like, if I 21:50 had US dollars, I would just invest them 21:53 because I'm not going to I'm not going 21:55 to risk the upside chasing cheaper 21:58 prices on the downside. the the 22:00 differential between an asset that I 22:03 know will one day be worth a million 22:04 dollars a coin. I am not going to try to 22:07 chase, you know, 108 104 $96,000 22:13 Bitcoin. I am not going to do that 22:15 because that's a fool's errand to keep 22:16 trying to time bottoms and buy cheaper. 22:19 Now, if the price goes cheaper and you 22:21 suddenly want more of it, well, buy more 22:22 of it. I've done that numerous times 22:24 where I I thought I had the the amount 22:26 of Bitcoin I wanted. I felt good about 22:28 the amount of Bitcoin I had. Everything 22:30 was kosher and then the price dipped and 22:32 I thought, well, I don't feel good about 22:34 the price of bit. I don't feel good 22:35 about the Bitcoin I own right now. I 22:37 want more. The price is now on sale and 22:39 I want more. For example, earlier this 22:41 year, I was 99% Bitcoin and I had 1% in 22:45 Tesla as diversification. Like as as if 22:49 that really provides me any 22:50 diversification. But then the price of 22:52 Bitcoin dropped into the 80,000s and I 22:54 thought I don't have conviction on 22:56 Tesla. I love Tesla, but I don't have 22:58 conviction on it as an investment the 23:00 way I do with Bitcoin. And I was not 23:03 willing to trade te 1% of my portfolio 23:06 in Tesla stock, 99% Bitcoin. I was not 23:09 willing to trade that out at 100,000 or 23:11 90,000. But once we got into the 80,000s 23:14 and then the number clicked to a seven, 23:16 I think I I did that conversion at like 23:18 78,000 per coin. When I saw the number 23:21 start with a seven, I thought I am 23:24 actually willing to go swap out that 1% 23:26 that's in Tesla into Bitcoin and get to 23:28 100% Bitcoin. So that's totally normal. 23:30 If the price drops and you want to buy 23:31 more Bitcoin, great. But if you already 23:33 have money, you've already decided to 23:36 invest in Bitcoin and you've mentally 23:38 allocated it there, then in my opinion, 23:40 it's a fool's errand to wait for a lower 23:43 price to buy it. Because again, there's 23:45 all sorts of people that missed out on 23:47 all sorts of upside because they were 23:49 playing those games in the past and 23:51 Bitcoin never went down to the price 23:53 that they thought they were going to buy 23:55 it at. Plus, if the price ever does go 23:56 down there, they freak out and they 23:58 don't buy. So they're like, "Okay, if 23:59 the price ever goes below 100, I'm in." 24:02 Well, then the price goes below 100, 24:03 they're like, "Oh, no. It's falling. If 24:05 it's falling, it's probably going to 24:06 fall some more." And they wait and they 24:08 wait and they wait, which is what 24:09 happened to me. I bought Bitcoin. The 24:11 initial Bitcoin I bought was around 24:13 $9,000. The lowest I ever bought Bitcoin 24:15 was 6,400. Um, you know, but I had also 24:18 bought some Bitcoin at, you know, 12 or 24:20 13,000 back in 2017, 2018. All these 24:23 numbers I'm talking about right now are 24:25 just 2017 and 2018 Bitcoin. Um, my 24:28 average cost is more like $35,000 24:30 because I bought Bitcoin a ton more 24:32 Bitcoin in 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25. The 24:35 last six years I bought, you know, a lot 24:38 more Bitcoin or I should say five years. 24:39 21 22 23 24 25 last 5 years. Uh, but the 24:43 initial Bitcoin was around 9,000 a coin. 24:45 And I told myself if the price ever 24:47 dropped in half to 4,500, I was going to 24:49 buy a lot more. But of course, like an 24:52 idiot, I did not. Because when the price 24:53 dropped, I thought, well, hey, there's 24:55 probably a good reason it dropped in 24:57 half. Maybe it's going to keep dropping. 24:59 Maybe this is the end of Bitcoin. And I 25:01 had not done the work to realize that 25:03 there will never be an end to Bitcoin. 25:05 Uh, it's the future monetary system of 25:06 the world. So, I did not buy the Bitcoin 25:08 at 4,500 the way I thought I was going 25:10 to. And as a result, I have way less 25:13 Bitcoin than I would have had if I had 25:15 bought Bitcoin at 4,500. 25:17 What I should have done is say, "Hey, 25:19 here's Bitcoin at 9,000. I I'm planning 25:22 to buy more at 4,500. Screw it. I'll 25:24 just buy the more Bitcoin. And I would 25:26 own a lot more Bitcoin at 9,000. Then I 25:29 ultimately subsequently bought that same 25:31 Bitcoin at 20,000, 30,000, 50,000 that I 25:34 could have had for 9,000. All because I 25:37 was waiting for 4,500. And then when it 25:39 came, I didn't buy it because it was 25:41 dropping. So same thing is going to 25:43 happen. If you're waiting for the price 25:44 to drop, you're either not going to pull 25:47 the trigger when it actually hits the 25:48 price you thought you were. Um, or 25:51 you're never going to get that price, 25:52 like the price will just never arrive 25:54 and then you're going to be sitting on 25:56 US dollars stuck not knowing what to do 25:58 with them. So, based on James Czech's 25:60 latest update first, it's fantastic. I 26:02 would recommend his work. Um, again, you 26:04 don't have to understand the charts. You 26:06 don't have to understand all the lingo. 26:07 All you just listen for is natural human 26:10 speak, which is the kind of stuff that 26:13 I, you know, read. Some of it was a 26:15 little bit, you know, more complex, but 26:17 most of it's just, hey, we're not 26:19 experiencing pain. You know, this looks 26:21 more like a bull market dip than a bare 26:23 market, you know, uh, uh, you know, a 26:26 bare market, uh, the start of a bare 26:28 market. Uh, so anyway, it was me and I 26:30 had US dollars, I would just dump them 26:32 in. Bitcoin feels like it's on sale 26:34 right now. Chasing lower prices is a 26:37 fool's errand. And um anyway, so and and 26:41 if James Czech's conclusion was this is 26:44 the start of a bare market, plan on this 26:45 sucking for a long time. 26:49 Then my conclusion, one second. 26:53 So if Jack if James checks analysis was 26:56 this is the start of the bare market, 26:57 it's probably going to last a year. this 26:59 is going to suck for quite a while. Then 27:00 I would do then my recommendation for 27:02 everybody would be dollar cost averaging 27:04 which is hey buy the same amount $100 27:07 $1,000 whatever you can afford $50 $5 27:11 buy the same amount every week and just 27:13 let it run and let it accumulate and you 27:15 don't know where the bottom is. Nobody 27:17 knows where the bottom is. Um but again 27:19 if you have but we're not there and so I 27:21 think the easy thing to do is if you got 27:23 money I would buy Bitcoin with it. 27:25 That's what I would do. Not not 27:27 financial advice, not legal advice, not 27:28 accounting advice, not investment 27:30 advice, not tax advice, not any sort of 27:32 advice, just me. Hopefully that helps. 27:35 Again, I love James Czech's work because 27:38 it every time his work arrives, it's the 27:42 only time every week that I feel like I 27:44 have total and complete piercing clarity 27:48 for why Bitcoin is behaving exactly like 27:50 it's behaving, why the price is where it 27:52 is, what I should do about it based on 27:54 where the price is, where the price 27:56 might go. It's just it's just fantastic 27:58 stuff. His stuff is really the best 27:60 content out there. Again, it's $29 a 28:02 month and it'll let you feel a lot 28:04 better about Bitcoin if you if you, you 28:07 know, have your finger on the pulse of 28:09 its vital signs of the price. Um, and 28:12 again, I'm spending a lot of time 28:13 talking about price because I've done 28:14 like 300 videos on things other than 28:17 price. So, you know, people want to talk 28:19 about price, I'll talk about price, too. 28:21 Uh, so great time to buy Bitcoin. Um, 28:24 this dip looks like run-of-the-mill on 28:27 an upward trajectory. And uh anyway, if 28:30 I had US dollars, I'd buy more Bitcoin, 28:32 but I don't. So, I'm just chilling like 28:35 his uh guy. And here, I'll I'll pull it 28:37 back up here. Um I like his uh I 28:41 identify with his uh with his meme here. 28:46 Where is it? Where is it? Here we go. Um 28:49 I identify with his meme where he's 28:51 like, "Look, you know how Bitcoin 28:54 holders feel right now? They're 28:55 chilling, unbothered, moisturized, 28:58 happy, in my lane, focused, and 29:00 flourishing. That is how I feel because 29:03 and that is how James Czech feels. The 29:06 vast vast majority, the vast vast vast 29:08 three, the vast vast vast majority of 29:11 Bitcoiners are sitting very pretty, 29:13 moisturized, and unbothered. And again, 29:16 if you just bought Bitcoin at a price 29:17 higher than today's price, give it a 29:19 little time and you will be sitting 29:20 there feeling unbothered, moisturized, 29:23 happy, in your lane, focused, and 29:26 flourishing. Have a great day, everyone.