James Check: “Hanging On By A Thread”

James Czech just offered a p uh authored a piece this morning named Hanging on by a thread where he lays out the likely case for a bull market and a bare market. Uh this followed up two other pieces that he did. One where he laid out a bearish case which is a pessimistic case for what's likely to happen with Bitcoin which is basically it could trade as low as $81,000. and then a piece he did earlier this week uh called a fresh set of eyes or something like that where he lays out the bullish case which is the optimistic case which is uh a run up to $150,000 and off to the races. Um so the first thing you'll notice is obviously 150 there's a bigger upside of you know dollar value between one here and 150 than there is between here and you know 81,000. Um, I'm still leaning in the positive direction. Obviously, every time, you know, at 114,000 earlier this week, I'm like, look, it's like 7030, 7535, you know, 7525. We go up from here. Then it dips again and it's like, okay, probably 6040. Now, here at, you know, 10 whatever it is, well, 109. It's like at 107, I'm like, oh my gosh, at 106 I'm like 50/50. I, you know, do we dip before we go up? And then at 109 I'm like, ah, probably up first. So, we don't know. Now, one benefit or one thing you can do in a situation like this is take advantage of River's feature of supercharging recurring buys. Uh, normally when people set up a recurring buy, they'll set it up for weekly. That that just cuts down in your total number of transactions, so you don't end up with like a gazillion transactions in your transaction ledger. Um, but if you want to make sure you're catching every single downside of of the price of Bitcoin, you can set it up daily. It's called daily DCA, uh, dollar cost averaging, as opposed to weekly. Again, I typically recommend if people are going to do dollar cost averaging, which is called, uh, recurring buys on River. I typically recommend they do that weekly just because it it cuts down on the total volume of uh, you know, of transactions. if you have to go look up transactions. If you got one per day minimum, it's that's just a lot of transactions to scroll through. Um, but uh you can also do it daily if you want. If you want to know that at every single dip in the price of Bitcoin, you are buying some at that price, you can set up daily. They might even let you do hourly, which is that results in an insane number of transactions, but I don't know. Anyway, but um River just rolled out their uh supercharge feature. uh the supercharge feature regardless of the interval you have set up for your dollar cost averaging strategy if you're taking that approach uh if the price over the last seven days has been an average of 1% lower sorry if at the price of the triggering of the um basically if you have it set up you know to trigger once a day or once a week at the time it triggers if the average price at that point in time is more than 1% lower than the average uh the historical average it will uh double up or it'll it'll buy you can set it to 25% more 50% more 75% more or 100% more than it normally buys. So if you have a you know daily $10 a day set up you can set it where it says hey if it's 1% below the average instead of $10 a day I want an extra 50% which means it'll buy you $15. Or if you have it set up weekly at $100 a week, you can have it set up like a 100% more where on a week where the price is 1% lower, uh it'll buy you $200 uh from your bank account rather than just $100. No matter how you set it up, it's going to preload one week's worth of purchasing power from your bank account. So, if you have it set up where it's $10 per day, I'm going to use daily here. Um but if you have it $10 per day, obviously it would take $70. 70 7 x10 to fund that. But if you have it set up where it can uh it can buy up to 100% extra if the price is uh in a dip at the time of the buy, then it will preund the account with $140 because it might be that every time there's a buy, it is dipping. It dips seven times in a row, in which case you're you'll need $140 preloading the account. So you can decide. Again, I generally recommend weekly if people are going to do dollar cost averaging. And obviously I recommend if you know 100% you know double up on it. If you're setting a supercharged order uh I would do 100% but obviously if your finances can only sustain uh supercharging at 25 50 or 75% uh that's great but obviously the more the better. If the price is dipping buying more is better. Um so uh dollar cost averaging is one of the few things you can do uh that works regardless even in a moment of extreme market indecision right now. So right now again James Czech is basically I he still he still airs positive like when you read through his updates it's like but it's more like 5545 at best 6040 in favor of going up first before a dip depending on the price of Bitcoin you you could see his mood his mood basically follows my mood which follows everybody's mood which is like you know the price is 107 or it dips below 107 it's like my gosh why can we not just go up um you know and then the price runs up to 108 109 or earlier this week as high as 114 I think it got up to 114 it's like wow we are off definitely off to the races but anyway um if you dollar cost average normally I don't recommend dollar cost averaging because it underperforms in general uh but with the new supercharge feature on river that came out earlier this week I think they launched it on Monday um so literally today is whatever Thursday and it's like been active for like two days uh but with the supercharge feature. I think um dollar cost averaging will has a higher likelihood of having performance similar to just buying as much as you can and just holding it as long as possible. Um now me, if I had US dollars to invest in Bitcoin, I would buy it immediately upfront. Smash buy, hit the buy button, full amount right now. That's what I would do. But I also understand that this grind wears people out. As Jack Malers, the CEO of Strike, says often, "The market is designed to wear you out and scare you out." So the dips are designed to scare you out and the grind sideways is designed to wear you out and make you just give up. And it's not unique to Bitcoin. Every asset behaves that way, which is why people, you know, a lot of people have lose money in markets. Any kind of market. One second. People tend to lose money in markets if they're trying to trade it, which you should not do. Um because they get scared out, uh you know, wear you out, scare you out. Um so anyway, so here we are. I am still obviously extremely bullish on Bitcoin, but the longer we grind sideways, the more fatigue it introduces. Even for me, I'm like, my gosh, how long do we have to grind sideways? Now, if I were not pumping out constant, you know, Facebook and YouTube content, well, all of my YouTube content is all Facebook content that's just moved over to YouTube. So, uh I'll call it Facebook content. If I was not constantly cranking out Facebook content, I wouldn't really care. I would just go live my life, ignore the price, and you know, it doesn't matter. Uh, but because I'm constantly cranking out Facebook content, it uh it does create the fatigue dynamic uh that you probably experience if you're checking the price 50 times a day like I am, which is like you're like, "My gosh, how long are we going to go sideways?" I mean, it feels like we've been going sideways forever. And the same was true. It felt like we were going sideways forever between $55,000 and $70,000 in 2024. So last year, eight solid months were almost the entirety of those eight months, we were between $55,000 and $70,000. Obviously up here at 109, 108, whatever it is at the exact moment. My watch is not updating. I think it's updating. It says 109, but it could be a little below that. Yeah, it's 109. Well, here we go. So I guess I guess at 109, I'm feeling a little better. So anyway, it's just the roller coaster of markets, but um I'm extremely bull. So my my advice remains the same. If you have money to invest in Bitcoin, if it were me, I would invest it up front. I would, you know, you know, put it all in and forget about it. If your finances, you know, if that makes you nervous or, you know, you can't quite stomach the roller coaster, then I would recommend supercharged recurring buys on river. Just go set it up for if you want to feel good about buying, you know, every single day. Uh, so with the prices dipping, you know, you're buying that day. You can set it up daily. Um, although for somebody like me, I'm like, I'll just do weekly. Uh, if I was doing it, I don't have a supercharged buy set up because every time I get US dollars, I immediately convert them into Bitcoin. Um, so I'm not doing recurring buying because I'm buying as much Bitcoin as I possibly can. But right now, I'm completely maxed out. I don't have any US dollars I could possibly invest in Bitcoin. Plus, I financed the Tesla that I'm riding in. So, I've shorted the US dollar. So, technically I would have had to buy had to sell Bitcoin to buy this Tesla, but I financed it for 6.25% over 5 years. So, um so technically I'm over 100% Bitcoin. Um because I not only have 100% of my assets in Bitcoin, I own multiple Well, technically the bank owns this Tesla until it's paid off, but uh I financed a Sleep Number mattress and I financed this Tesla so that I would not have to sell Bitcoin. So technically I'm over 100% allocated to Bitcoin. Um but anyway, so uh if this, you know, scare you out, you know, wear you out, scare you out market is wearing you out and scaring you out, then just set up a supercharged recurring buy on River and then you don't have to worry about it. You just, you know, let the market do its thing. You're always buying whether it's daily or weekly. You know, if the price dips, you feel good about it because you know that you're buying at those dip prices as well. And if your recurring buy hits on one of those dips, which if you set it up daily, it basically always does. If you set it up weekly, it's, you know, more hit or miss, but it all comes out in the wash. It's the the performance would basically be the same regardless. Um, but you're buying more. You're buying more if it's dipping. And on average, that means your performance is higher over time. Um, so, uh, the the best thing if you're if you feel market uncertainty and you're just not sure. Uh, that's the reason I like James Check. for $29 a month. I don't get anything from it. It's just, you know, I recommend him just because, like everything I do, I recommend him because I use it and I like it. Um, but it really gives you a lot of comfort knowing sort of where the market is and what it could do and having him lay out, you know, okay, here's where we are. You know, these prices are the prices at which people start to capitulate on the way down, which could send us as low as $81,000. you know, if we break 105 consistently, then we break 100 consistently, then we break 95 consistently, we're probably going, you know, to 81,000. But it's it's nice knowing that that's the effectively the floor. Doesn't mean you can't go below it, but he just doesn't think any, you know, he he feels like that's sort of where the bottom will be if this is a a bare market, meaning a sort of a pessimistic down market. Um, and also it's, you know, he lays out it's like, look, if we can break the short-term cost bolt basis 113, then we break, uh, you know, 118 and we're probably going to 150. So, you don't get clarity on which direction we're certainly going because that's impossible in a market. No market, not gold, silver, commodities, wheat, soybeans, um, there's no market, stocks, bonds, you know, any of that. There's nobody that can predict where the market's going, whether you're going up or down. But it is helpful and comforting to know sort of how low could you go if you go low and how quick could you get there if you go high. Um and in the long run if you're invested in the right asset it doesn't matter because you're eventually going to go we're we're eventually going to go to 150,000 in Bitcoin no matter what. There's a 100% chance we will be at 150,000. The question is do we dip as low as 81,000 before that or do we just go you know straight there in the ne in the coming weeks? My prediction, as I predicted earlier this week, is that we'll be, you know, we'll touch above 150,000 between now and the end of the year. But most predictions are wrong, including by me. Um, so I don't know. Um, but Bitcoin is still the best performing asset, you know, of the century, of the decade, and the whole world needs money, and Bitcoin is a better money. So, my conviction is a 100 out of 100. Do we dip before we go high? Nobody knows. Uh, but rivers supercharged recurring buys are a great way if you are if the wear you out scare you out dynamic is wearing you out and potentially scaring you out. Uh, supercharged recurring buys on river are a fantastic way to keep from being scared