NEW ALL-TIME HIGH $113k+! What happens now? What happens next?

00:03 All time high right now above $113,000. 00:07 Uh that's the highest it's ever been in 00:08 history. It means 100% of people that 00:10 have ever owned Bitcoin are in profit as 00:13 long as they didn't sell it uh in at 00:15 some point in the past. So everyone 00:17 throughout the entirety of Bitcoin his 00:19 Bitcoin's history for the last 16 years, 00:22 if you held on to it, you are in profit 00:24 right now because Bitcoin is at an 00:26 all-time high. It's the highest it's 00:27 ever been. Literally, nobody has ever 00:28 bought Bitcoin at a price that's higher 00:30 than it is right now because it's the 00:32 highest it's ever been above $113,000. 00:35 Okay. So, what happens now and what 00:38 happens next? Okay. So, a couple of 00:40 things. One, typically once Bitcoin has 00:42 gone through a period of consolidation, 00:44 in this case of seven or eight months, 00:46 it's been about seven months. Once 00:48 Bitcoin's been through that period, what 00:50 typically happens next is that it uh 00:54 rises to a new sort of plateau. And in 00:57 this case, most people, including James 00:60 Czech, the best Bitcoin analyst, is 01:01 projecting sort of the next holding 01:04 ground around 125 to $130,000 per 01:08 Bitcoin. And um the reason is at that 01:11 point, Bitcoiners are in quite a bit of 01:14 profit. So for someone who has, you 01:16 know, used to have for the last seven 01:18 months, call it $50,000 of Bitcoin, now 01:21 they have 60 or $65,000 of Bitcoin. If 01:24 they own one Bitcoin and they're used to 01:25 it bouncing around around $100,000, now 01:28 they're bouncing at $125,000 and they're 01:31 $25,000 01:32 wealthier. And so what happens is people 01:36 start to decide to improve the lives of 01:38 themselves and their families, which is 01:40 exactly the purpose of money. The reason 01:42 you have money is so that when uh the 01:44 time is right, you can improve the lives 01:46 of yourself and your family. 01:51 It's the point of money. So, um people 01:54 tend over a period of time that seems 01:56 the last couple of times has taken 01:58 around seven or eight months. That's how 01:60 long it's taken for somebody to get used 02:01 to being at a new level of wealth. And 02:05 that means that's how long it takes for 02:07 them to adjust to doing things that 02:09 involve money. Uh let me give you a a 02:12 real world experience with myself. So 02:14 James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin 02:16 analyst, is often saying, can you see 02:19 yourself in the data? Meaning, is the 02:21 way Bitcoin's price behaving consistent 02:23 with your own personal experience of 02:26 what you're doing with your own Bitcoin? 02:27 So Bitcoin rises. I have 100% of my net 02:30 worth in Bitcoin. Um the last of the 02:33 money I have that was not in Bitcoin 02:35 went into Bitcoin in the high $70,000. 02:39 So, my average cost basis is probably in 02:41 the low $30,000. But again, that's 02:44 because I have 100% of my net worth, my 02:47 liquid net worth in Bitcoin, meaning I 02:49 have tripled my liquid net worth, more 02:51 than tripled already. But the last of 02:53 that went in in the high 70,000s. And 02:55 obviously, I buy Bitcoin every two 02:57 weeks. So, I bought Bitcoin at 111. I 02:59 bought Bitcoin at 109. I bought Bitcoin 03:02 whatever two weeks ago at 108. It's just 03:04 the I'm always buying Bitcoin. But for 03:06 major purchases from infusions of cash, 03:09 the last was in the uh the high 70,000s 03:11 or something like that. Other than I 03:13 actually I think I got some sort of the 03:15 blue money that came in that was like 03:17 109 or 111 or something like that. But 03:19 anyway, so when when people start 03:22 feeling wealthier, they decide to adjust 03:24 their spending patterns. So, for 03:26 example, over the last 7 months, while 03:29 Bitcoin's been bouncing around mostly 03:32 between 100,000 and 110 with very short 03:35 uh time periods where it drops lower 03:37 than that and a couple very short 03:38 periods where it's been slightly higher 03:40 than 110, people like me are adjusting 03:42 everything, right? So, previously I did 03:44 not feel like I could afford a generator 03:47 for my house because my electricity goes 03:49 out about every other week because 03:50 energy cannot keep my electricity on. 03:53 But with Bitcoin above 100 thousand 03:55 100,000 a coin, I'm like, you know what? 03:57 I can actually afford a generator. Now, 03:58 I'm always buying more Bitcoin. So, uh 04:00 on net, it probably nets out. But over 04:03 the last seven months, I've paid um uh 04:06 payments for Georgetown University where 04:08 my wife is in grad school. I've paid 04:10 payments for our kids school. I've 04:12 they're in a hybrid homechool program. 04:14 Uh I've paid payments for this 04:15 generator. I paid payments for this. I 04:17 mean, it just feels like a money's gone 04:19 out a lot of ways. So over the last 04:21 probably couple weeks, I've been 04:24 thinking, you know what, I've sort of 04:26 run out of things that I need to spend 04:27 money on. And meaning I've run out of 04:30 things that I need to liquidate Bitcoin 04:32 to buy. The generators paid off. The 04:34 grad school, you know, that's all 04:36 prepaid, you know, through at least 04:38 until sometime late in the year. Like 04:40 everything's all caught up. So, when I 04:42 check the price of Bitcoin and it's at, 04:43 you know, 109,000 or 111,000 a coin, I'm 04:46 thinking there's really nothing I need 04:48 that I don't have right now. And guess 04:52 what? Bunch of other people felt the 04:53 same way because over the last seven 04:55 months, it appears based on the price 04:57 today above $113,000 04:60 that everybody who had something they 05:01 wanted to do with their Bitcoin that 05:04 involved liquidating their Bitcoin to 05:06 buy a generator, to go on a nice 05:08 vacation, whatever it is they wanted to 05:09 do, build an add-on to their house, 05:12 upgrade their security system, all of 05:14 the things you might want to do with 05:15 Bitcoin. It took apparently about seven 05:18 months for people to get that out of 05:20 their system which allows the price to 05:23 rise. People continue to buy Bitcoin. 05:25 But the big difference is there's nobody 05:27 to sell it at 108,000 anymore. Right? 05:29 So, you know, it goes up to 108 109. I 05:32 check all my bank account balances. I'm 05:34 like, I'm good. You know, credit cards 05:36 are all paid down to zero. We we only 05:39 carry small balances just to make sure 05:41 our, you know, we still have a credit 05:42 score. just like all right everything's 05:46 like there's nothing I want to spend 05:48 money on. So apparently the same was 05:50 true of a lot of people because about 05:53 the same time that there was not 05:55 anything else for me to spend money on 05:57 to improve the lives of me and my 05:59 family. Uh the same thing apparently 06:01 happened to a bunch of other people 06:02 around the world. Now somebody like me I 06:05 can't change the price of Bitcoin at 06:06 all. I could sit there all day long and 06:09 selling $100,000 of Bitcoin every 5 06:12 minutes and it would have zero impact on 06:14 the price. So my buying and selling 06:16 behavior of Bitcoin has no impact on the 06:18 price except maybe one 1 millionth of a 06:21 penny or something ridiculous. But when 06:23 you have hundreds of millions of people 06:25 in the world that own Bitcoin, all of 06:27 them are getting accustomed to a new 06:29 higher price above 100,000, all of those 06:32 people are making choices to improve the 06:34 lives of their families and themselves. 06:36 And at some point, you know, they get it 06:38 out of their system like I did. And I'm 06:40 like, great, there's kind of nothing I 06:42 want to spend money on. Now, what's 06:44 going to happen? Well, when the price 06:45 goes up to, in the case of James Czech's 06:48 estimation, somewhere between 125,000 06:50 and 150 or sorry, $125 and 130,000, it's 06:54 going to take another breather. The 06:56 reason it's going to take another 06:56 breather are the people that are sitting 06:58 on $5 million of Bitcoin are now sitting 07:00 on six. The people are sitting on 50,000 07:02 are now sitting on 60,000. the people, 07:05 you know, the OGs that are sitting on 07:07 $50 million of Bitcoin, which is people 07:10 before I got involved in Bitcoin, 07:13 they're now sitting on $60 million 07:15 instead of $50 million. And what are 07:16 they going to do? They're going to do 07:18 exactly the same thing they did for the 07:19 last 7 months. So once Bitcoin's above 07:22 125, 130,000 a coin, somebody like me 07:26 starts thinking, you know what, I've 07:27 always wanted an electric jet ski. Do I 07:29 need an electric jet ski? No, I don't. 07:32 Would it be fun to have an electric jet 07:34 ski that does not spew out fumes and 07:37 make loud noises and you can just putter 07:40 around or zoom around and it's all 07:43 electric just like my amazing Tesla 2026 07:47 Model Y I'm riding in right now. Yes, I 07:49 love this car. Now it's, you know, 07:50 financed for 5 years at 6% interest with 07:53 Trust Mark. So, you know, that doesn't 07:55 affect the price of Bitcoin, but I 07:57 probably can't finance an electric jet 07:59 ski when Bitcoin's $130,000 a coin. Now, 08:02 I don't think I'm going to buy one, but 08:04 someone somewhere is, and someone 08:06 somewhere is going to liquidate $18,000 08:08 and buy themselves an electric jet jet 08:10 ski. It probably will not be me, but it 08:12 probably will be somebody. And we're 08:14 going to have to wait to absorb all of 08:16 the buying patterns of everybody who is 08:18 feeling wealthy now that we're at 125 or 08:22 130. And when we get done digesting all 08:24 of that and everybody who's getting on 08:26 the Bitcoin train for the first time is 08:28 done getting on the train or everybody 08:30 who is finally realized, hey, Bitcoin is 08:33 a big deal and I should own more of it 08:34 has ratcheted up their ownership from 08:36 10% to 20% or 20% to 40% or 40% to 60% 08:40 of their net worth. Then at some point 08:43 demand will continue. the people who uh 08:46 are done, everybody who wanted to adjust 08:48 their lifestyle will be done doing that 08:51 and the price will again go higher. In 08:53 the case of James Czech, he's estimating 08:55 by the end of the year we'll be at about 08:56 $150,000 to $175,000 08:59 per coin. One and then we take a 09:01 breather. Why do we take a breather? 09:03 Because people would feel wealthy up 09:04 there. And especially if we march up 09:07 there really, really, really fast, then 09:09 it's just not sustainable. You can't 09:11 rise super fast without getting a price 09:13 correction. So, if we march up to 150 to 09:16 175,000 nice and slow, that means we're 09:19 probably not going to get a big price 09:20 correction after that. But if we shoot 09:22 up there super fast, almost certainly 09:25 there will be a price correction. Now, 09:26 how low will the price correction be? I 09:28 don't know. It could drop from 175,000 09:30 back to 125,000. But guess what? 125,000 09:34 is still higher than the 113,000 you can 09:37 buy it for right now. So, what's uh 09:40 typically happens now? Bitcoin could 09:42 fall back, right? I mean, we could be 09:44 staring at $113,000 Bitcoin and tomorrow 09:46 it could be back at 108. That absolutely 09:49 could happen. Um, but if so, so what? We 09:52 take a little longer to chop sideways 09:54 and digest everybody who wants to get 09:56 off the train at 108,000 a coin with 09:59 just a little bit of whatever Bitcoin 10:00 they own to improve the lives of 10:02 themselves and their family. And then we 10:03 keep going up. So, who cares if we take 10:05 a little pause? Um, usually once we 10:08 start getting a run like this, it's in 10:10 the course of 3 or 4 days. My estimation 10:12 based on just history of doing this a 10:14 lot is it typically takes between 3 and 10:17 5 days to settle at a new level. So if 10:21 somebody said predict what's going to 10:23 happen to the best of my ability, I 10:25 would say well within, you know, two or 10:27 three days we're going to be above 10:29 12,000 a coin and within 3 to 5 days 10:31 we'll be above $125,000 per coin. which 10:35 point we'll start chopping sideways and 10:36 everybody will be annoyed and everybody 10:38 will say, "Hey, why is Bitcoin not doing 10:41 anything?" And it's like, "Wait, it's up 10:42 100% in the last 12 months. Is it not 10:45 doing anything?" Like, what other two 10:47 trillion dollar asset in the world, goes 10:50 up 100% in a year with virtually zero 10:53 chance you're going to lose your money, 10:55 there is no better riskreward tradeoff 10:59 than Bitcoin. And so, yeah, you know, if 11:02 a 100% in a year is not good enough for 11:04 you, I'm sorry, but like that's as good 11:06 as you're going to get by any legit 11:08 asset. Now, that doesn't mean you can't 11:10 trade penny stocks, but you're going to 11:12 lose all your money. And one in a 11:14 million people get rich. Just like at a 11:16 casino, somebody wins, but not you. Not 11:18 the average person. The average person 11:20 loses big time at a casino. So, uh, in 11:23 any legit real investment, Bitcoin is 11:26 the highest return, lowest risk 11:29 investment. That ratio of risk to 11:31 return, it's the best of anything you 11:33 could possibly invest in right now. So, 11:35 what's going to happen? We'll probably 11:37 get a run over the next few days to a 11:39 price, you know, 10,000 plus uh dollars 11:42 higher than it is today. Then it'll 11:44 probably cool off for a while. um and 11:46 then you know give it a little time and 11:48 then it'll make another run later this 11:50 year to another price significantly 11:52 higher than that. That's typically what 11:55 happens. It just takes time to digest. 11:57 And uh anyway, I still think it's a good 11:59 time to buy Bitcoin, although it goes up 12:01 and down on its way up. So if you're 12:03 buying Bitcoin right now above 113,000 12:06 per coin, just make sure you're patient. 12:08 Make sure you're not buying with dollars 12:10 you got to have next week or next month 12:12 or even the next six months. You don't 12:14 know. You don't want to be forced to 12:16 sell Bitcoin at a price that is lower 12:19 than the price you bought it for. So, if 12:21 you're patient and you can hold Bitcoin 12:23 for a good multiple years, then it's a 12:25 great time to buy Bitcoin right now. Um, 12:28 again, it all depends on, you know, make 12:30 sure you're patient, make sure you're 12:31 not doing anything dumb, not make sure 12:33 you're not using borrowed money, and, 12:36 you know, stay safe out there. So, 12:38 that's what I think is going to happen. 12:39 I think we'll get the next 3 to 5 days 12:41 will push us somewhere between 120 to 12:43 130,000 a coin. Then I think we'll chop 12:46 solidate, you know, we'll chop around 12:48 there for, I don't know, some series of 12:50 weeks or months. And then we'll go up to 12:52 150 and do it again and go to 175 and do 12:55 it again. And somewhere along the way, 12:57 we may get a 33% pullback. Or if we go 12:60 up a lot really quickly, we could end up 13:02 with a 50% pullback. But again, uh I 13:05 think that's unlikely. And it depends. 13:06 That's only if we like go crazy. If 13:08 somebody's like, I mean, if we shoot in 13:10 a 220,000 by the end of the year, I 13:12 would say, yeah, there's a good chance 13:14 we're going to get a, you know, 30, you 13:16 know, 40 or 50% pullback off two 220. 13:20 Now, it might only last like 2 hours. 13:22 You know, it could be a matter of days 13:23 or weeks and then we're back at 150 or 13:26 something like that, but if you shoot up 13:28 really fast, it's unsustainable in the 13:30 short term, very sustainable in the long 13:32 term. If you grind up like we have been, 13:35 it's a lot more sustainable in the short 13:36 and long term. Uh although that doesn't 13:38 mean we can't get you know 20 or 30% 13:40 price corrections which we have had if 13:42 you you know if you're paying attention 13:44 we have had I think two or three price 13:47 corrections of at least 25 to 30% or up 13:50 to 33% in the last 12 months. So you got 13:53 to be ready for that. So stay safe out 13:55 there. I love Bitcoin. It's the best 13:57 investment in the world. And you're not 13:59 late. It's still a fantastic time to buy 14:01 Bitcoin as long as you're patient and as 14:03 long as you can afford to hold it, you 14:04 know, for at least the next few years. 14:06 It's the best investment you could 14:07 possibly make in my opinion. As always, 14:10 this is not legal advice, not tax 14:11 advice, not accounting advice, not 14:14 whatever legal, tax, accounting, 14:17 financial, not financial advice either. 14:19 It's not any of those kind of advices. 14:21 So have a great day everyone and 14:23 celebrate the days of glory that push 14:25 Bitcoin to new stratospheric heights 14:28 because they only come after weeks, 14:30 months, or even years of pain and 14:32 sideways grind which is the case with 14:34 every investment out there. Have a good 14:36 one everyone. Thanks.