Menu
Contact Joel
Resources Facebook Live Price drops are NORMAL! BUY THEM!

Price drops are NORMAL! BUY THEM!

Published December 30, 2025
Joel Bomgar
by Joel Bomgar
YouTube Video Transcript
I did an analysis to determine what percent of the time Bitcoin was 30% or more below its most recent all-time high. And the results will probably surprise you. Bitcoin has spent 72% of its life 30% or more below its most recent all-time high. So, if you feel like right now with Bitcoin at $87,000 per coin is painful because you're down 30%. You're not down 30%, but hypothetically we are down 30% from whoever bought it at the very tiptop of 126,185. If it feels like you're down and you're wondering if the party's over, if you were late to the party, if the you missed the boat, uh you know, you you you arrived on the scene when everything's winding down. None of that is true. Uh, and if you think you're the first person to think that, then just realize of the last 17 years, 11 of the last 17 years, Bitcoin was down 30% or more. If you add up the total number of days that Bitcoin was down 30% or more over the last 17 years, you end up with a total number of days that equals 11 years out of the last 17 years. Bitcoin has been down 30% or more, more than twice as much as it's been within 30% of an all-time high. But I want to give you this historical perspective because again, people just lose perspective when the price is down like this. They, you know, they're down and out. People are they don't whine to me, but I'm sure someone somewhere is whining. You know, oh, it's painful. It's down. Why would I buy an asset that's 30% down? Blah blah blah. Okay. 2010, the first year that Bitcoin had a price, it was on sale, meaning it was down 30% or more, 62% of the year, and you could have bought it during that time at 19. The same asset that's $87,000, you could have bought it for 19. But guess what? Back then, it spent 62% of the year, down more than 30% from the previous all-time high, and people felt exactly like they did right now. And therefore, a bunch of people did not buy Bitcoin for 19 cents. 2011 it was on sale 68% of the year. You could buy Bitcoin for $6.79. 2012 and uh 2012 Bitcoin was on sale 100% of the year. There was never a time in the entirety of 2012 where Bitcoin was not more than 30% below the all-time high that had been set in 2011. The whole year. Yet the entire year of 2012, you could buy Bitcoin for $8.29 on average. 2013, even though 2013 was a peak year, it still spent 73% of the year below the prior all-time high. And you could buy it at $171 a coin. 2014, 92% of the year was below was 30% or more off. You could buy Bitcoin for $486 a coin. 2015, 100% of 2015, every single person who bought Bitcoin in 2015 bought it when it was more than 30% below its prior all-time high. that had been set not in 2014 but 2013. So if you're buying in 2015, you're underwater, you know, in 2015, the whole year uh from the previous all-time high, assuming you bought it some at the previous all-time high. And the average price is $272 in 2015. 2016, Bitcoin is 30% or more below its all-time high. 92% of the year, sorry, 98% of the year. 98% of the year in 2016, average price, $960. then it takes off. 2017 was a huge rally year. Um, so it was only on sale about 8% of the year, similar to the 7% of this year. Average price $5,170. 2018, again, it was another down year. Bitcoin was on sale 30% or more. 98% of 2018, average price, $7,412. 2019, another down year. 100% of the year, the entirety of 2019, you could buy Bitcoin 30% or more below the previous all-time high. Average price $7,372. The year 2020, even though 2020 was a really good year, it was still spent 84% of the year, 30% or more below the all-time high. Average price 9,518 if you bought it in any of those discounted days. 2021, Bitcoin was only on sale 36% of that year, which means it was not on sale most of the year. One of the rare rarities, the average price was 39,616. 2022 and 2023, the Bitcoin price was on sale the entire year. At no point in 2022 or 2023 did it break the spike of the all-time high in 2021. Meaning on 2022 or 2023, you had to have the conviction to buy Bitcoin in either of those years while it was on sale. And you could buy it for about 28,168 in 2022, 28,852 in 2023. 2024, great year. It was only on sale 12% of the time, meaning it was within 30% of an all-time high or setting an all-time high 88% of the time. Average price in 2020 2024 if you bought it while it was on sale 43,749. Now 2025 so far Bitcoin has been through Christmas only on sale 7% of the time. That means 93% of this year we have been within 30% of the all-time high. 97 uh sorry 93% of the year. So 93% of this year, we've been within 30% of the all-time high or setting a new all-time high, which means Bitcoin's only been on sale as much as it is now, 7% of the year. And that's almost entirely been in the last two months. Not even all of the last two months, just portions of the last two months with an average price of 86,735. So which is basically the price right now. I don't know the exact price right now. Basically exactly what it was uh when it's been average on sale. $86,735. So, if you're staring at $87,000 Bitcoin, feeling down, feeling like you're late to the party, feeling like maybe you missed out, maybe, you know, maybe Bitcoin's never coming back, just realize Bitcoin has spent 90, sorry, 72% of its life, just like it is now, as far down as it is right now. and that most of the last, you know, the last 17 years, most of the years, including the entirety of some of the years, Bitcoin has been 30% or more down the entire time. And meanwhile, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the entire 21st century. The entire 21st century, Bitcoin is the best performing asset of this, you know, century. and it spent the vast majority of its time 72% of the time below 30% or below the previous all-time high. So where are we right now? We are 30% below the all-time high. Is that new? No, it's not new. It's normal. It's where every asset spends most of the time. If you analyze the magnificent seven stocks which is Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, uh, Nvidia, and one more I'm forgetting whatever Google Magnificent 7, the seven highest performing stocks in the last decade. All of them, if you ran the analysis, would be similar where they spend huge amounts of time below their all-time high. It is rare that they are setting a new all-time high, but they set new all-time highs enough that when you zoom out, you end up with these incredible gains, which is what Bitcoin's delivered and what these other assets have delivered. If you're watching gold and silver right now, they're on a tear. Guess what? Gold spent eight years between 2011 and 2019 never having set a new all-time high. Eight solid years. If you bought at the peak in 2011, you were waiting eight years to be up on your investment. and now you're up, you know, triple whatever it was, uh, you know, roughly from back then. Um, so what do you do when you have a winning asset? You buy as much as you can and you hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. That's what you do with winning assets. What do you do when a winning asset is 30% discounted? You buy as much as you can and you hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. How did the people perform who did exactly that? who are buying Bitcoin at 19, $6, $8, $171, $468, $272, $560, $5,000,7,000, 7,000, 9,000, 40,000, 28,000, 28,000, and 43,000, and this year 87,000. How did they do on their investment? They did fantastically well because they bought and they held. There is never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. If you bought Bitcoin at $126,000, guess what? You will be up on your investment. Just give it time. There is never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. But if you didn't buy as much Bitcoin as you should have, which probably is 100% of the people listening to this, if you didn't buy as much as you should have, you can buy right more right now at a 30% discount from the prior all-time high. And everyone who has ever done that has eventually been happy they did. They may not have been happy the next day, but give it weeks, months, years, and it ends up outperforming everything else they could possibly have put money in. So, Bitcoin will keep doing this over and over and over. You can make as much money as you want on Bitcoin depending on how much you have to put in and how patient you are. And right now you can buy it at 30% below the all-time high. Fabulous time to buy Bitcoin. Buy as much as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. Just hold on to it. Be patient like every investment and it will reward you in accordingly just like it always

Disclaimer:

The content provided in this post is for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and all opinions expressed are my own. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing in Bitcoin or any other assets carries risk, and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Subscribe to Joel's Friday Roundup ✉️

Stay current with the latest bitcoin insights with the Friday Roundup newsletter — Joel's latest posts from the week, wrapped up in a single email for easy viewing.

Success!
CLOUDFLARE

NOTHING for sale. No SPAM ever. Unsubscribe anytime.