QUESTION: “How do we know if this is a regular bitcoin market pullback, or "the big one"?

00:01 Hey everyone, if you track Bitcoin a 00:03 lot, you've probably read VJ Boya's 00:06 book, The Bullish Case for Bitcoin. That 00:09 book again is by VJ Boya called The 00:13 Bullish Case for Bitcoin. And in that 00:15 book, it outlines uh the Gartner hype 00:18 cycle, which is the technology adoption 00:20 life cycle that typically uh drives any 00:23 sort of new disruptive technology. And 00:25 you know that as is described in that 00:28 book, typically about every four years 00:30 there is a big pullback of sizable 00:33 proportions. Um typically exceeding 75%. 00:38 Uh most recently back in 2022 it was a 00:42 77.5% price correction in the price of 00:45 Bitcoin. And you may be wondering, wait, 00:48 uh we're down 30% right now. Are we 00:50 going to 75% or 50%? And the answer is 00:54 no. I do not think so. But of course, I 00:56 don't know. But let me tell you why I 00:58 don't think so. So, first of all, those 01:00 big market corrections happen about 01:02 every four years, which would mean the 01:05 the likely next one would be 2026, not 01:09 2025. So, uh, typically the huge up 01:12 years are the years after the 01:15 presidential election, followed by a 01:17 pullback the following year. So the huge 01:19 up years in Bitcoin's history were 2013, 01:22 2017, 2021 and you know history would 01:26 predict 2025. Obviously we have not had 01:29 that huge uplift in 2025 yet. So it is 01:33 not you know the the the every four-year 01:35 big pullback certainly would not be 01:37 predicted to be in 2025. uh typically we 01:41 would have a all-time high late in 2025 01:44 and obviously that has not happened and 01:46 we are also not late in 2025. So um so 01:51 even from timing that would indicate 01:53 that that is not likely. Uh also the 01:56 reason you get those big pullbacks is 01:57 because there's an insane run in the 02:00 price prior to that pullback and that 02:02 run is just not sustainable for all the 02:04 reasons that are described in VA VJ 02:07 Boyott's book the bullish case for 02:09 Bitcoin. So we have not had that big 02:12 parabolic insane hype driven euphoria 02:16 laden run that would typically precede a 02:19 huge pullback. So, for example, we spent 02:22 7 months trading between $55,000 and 02:25 $70,000 last year. In that seven months 02:28 of just sideways grind, it basically 02:32 ground out and shook out everybody that 02:35 did not want to own Bitcoin, you know, 02:37 at a price that and so there was a huge 02:40 rotation in ownership where, you know, 02:42 people spent 7 months with people who 02:44 wanted to get off the train between 02:47 55,000 and 70,000 selling to people who 02:50 wanted to get on the train between 02:52 55,000 and 70,000. Obviously, it wasn't 02:55 exactly in that range. There were 02:56 temporary spikes above 70,000 up to 02:60 74,000. There were also very temp 03:02 temporary pullbacks that were just below 03:05 55,000. Um, in fact, one day it touched 03:08 for a couple hours a price just below 03:10 50,000. But for almost the entirety of 03:12 those 7 months, the price was back and 03:15 forth up and down between 55,000 and 03:18 70,000. Uh and then after the election, 03:21 the price jumped very quickly from the 03:24 mid60,000s into the mid 90,000s. And 03:27 we've been grinding around for 3 or 4 03:29 months now, uh mostly between 95,000 and 03:34 105,000. And then obviously we get this 03:36 temporary pullback that is happening 03:38 right now. But again, history would 03:40 indicate that when you have that much of 03:42 a grind, that gives a lot of people time 03:44 to get on and off the train. And 03:46 typically a grind like that would not 03:49 precede uh a major pullback. So uh also 03:53 before a pullback you typically get 03:55 these euphoric, you know, Coinbase is 03:57 the number one app in the app store. 03:59 Everybody's buying. People are, you 04:02 know, using insane amounts of leverage. 04:04 Crazy stuff is happening in the crypto 04:06 markets. Companies are going public. The 04:08 search volume for the word Bitcoin is 04:10 going through the roof. Uh you know, all 04:12 sorts of crazy altcoins. 04:15 um which the technical term is 04:18 coins. Uh that's what everybody calls 04:20 them, but I won't say that out loud. So, 04:22 we'll use the plight term, which is 04:23 altcoins, which is stuff that's not 04:25 Bitcoin that has no use value that 04:27 people just trade for the raw 04:30 speculation and, you know, gambling of 04:31 it. Those typically go crazy right 04:34 before a huge market correction as well. 04:36 So, we just haven't had virtually any of 04:37 that. Uh all of the major indicators 04:40 that would would indicate what's called 04:42 a blowoff top, we just haven't had that. 04:44 We have not had a huge multiund% crazy 04:48 rally fueled by euphoria, tons of crypto 04:52 mergers and acquisitions and insanity. 04:54 You know, that's the sort of stuff that 04:56 becomes unsustainable and then you get a 04:57 significant price pullback. But we just 04:59 haven't had that. Um, so my prediction 05:01 is I think, you know, 80% chance this is 05:04 just a standard pullback which will be 05:06 followed by many all-time highs. Um, but 05:09 obviously there's some percent chance. I 05:10 don't know if it's 10% or 20% or 05:12 whatever it is, you know that the a 05:15 significant pullback is happening 05:16 earlier than expected. Now, even if it 05:18 does, we live in a world now with 05:20 exchange traded funds. So, there is a 05:23 much broader marketplace of uh investors 05:27 than there used to be. We also live in a 05:28 world where there is a strategic Bitcoin 05:30 reserve now in the United States and 05:32 where banks can custody Bitcoin. So, 05:34 there is a lot more potential buying 05:37 power waiting for cheap Bitcoin with a 05:40 level head and not a, you know, 05:43 trigger-happy trigger finger. Um, which 05:45 is the case often with what's called 05:47 retail investors, which are more on 05:48 their Coinbase account, but they just 05:50 really don't know what they're doing. 05:51 Those people tend to buy when the price 05:53 is going crazy up and sell when the 05:56 price is going crazy down, which 05:57 basically makes the cycles worse. And 05:59 same with leverage people. the longer it 06:02 looks like Bitcoin's in a crazy up 06:04 market, you get people trading with just 06:06 crazy leverage and which means borrowed 06:09 money and that typically, you know, 06:11 comes down like a house house of cards 06:12 at some point. So, I think all the 06:15 indicators and the very most level heads 06:17 in the world of Bitcoin, people like Lyn 06:19 Alden would all say that they don't 06:21 think what we are in right now is a big 06:24 every four-year major price correction. 06:26 They virtually all would say if that 06:29 happens, it would be likely to happen 06:32 next year, not this year. And it would 06:34 happen after a huge price run, not the 06:36 relatively modest price runs we've had 06:39 as a result of the ETFs last year and 06:41 the election of Donald Trump uh who is 06:44 pro Bitcoin in November. Those uh price 06:47 rises have been relatively modest by 06:49 comparison. So uh I think we're in a 06:52 great spot. I think it's a great time to 06:53 buy as much Bitcoin as you can. And you 06:56 know, if I can be helpful in your 06:58 journey, let me know. I'm always here to 06:59 help. Thanks, everyone.