Should you BUY NOW or WAIT for Bitcoin to drop?

in December of 2025. Should you buy Bitcoin now at $89,000 per coin or wait for it to drop further? I'm going to cover that as well as the best price predictions of James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, in this video. So, let's dig in. Okay, first of all, Bitcoin is at $89,000 per coin. So, I went back and I read all of James Czech's most recent research, including places that he's estimated the probabilities that the price might drop by certain amounts. And I compiled all of that from his various sources, including videos uh he does as well as newsletters. And here are those numbers. I'm going to give them to you, and then I'm going to walk through what I would do, which involves buying more no matter what. So, uh, the cut to the chase of this video is you should buy more Bitcoin regardless of the price, no matter what, regardless of James Czech's predictions, but I'll give them to you anyway. Okay. So, the probability that the most recent low, which was 80,500 850 0, the probability that was that that was the low of this cycle and that we are mostly just up from here is 40%. 4. So, there is a 40% chance we already had the low of this cycle and that it's going to be an exciting ride up from here. Even if we grind sideways and a little bit down for some period of time, we won't go below 80,500. So, 40% chance of that. Okay, that means there's a 60% chance we do go below 80,500. So, 40% chance we've already set the low. There's a 35% chance according to James Sheek 35 35% chance that we hit a low somewhere between 70,000 and $75,000 which is the upper end of the chop solidation. Chop meaning chop it like chopping sideways and solidation as in consolidation. So chopping sideways and consolidation when you combine those words you end up with chop solidation which is what James Czech calls uh a price of anything when it's just grinding sideways chopping sideways consolidation grinding sideways we'll call it as he does chop consolidation. So the upper end of that range in 2025 was between $70,000 and $75,000. Uh, Bitcoin spent the vast majority about eight months of 2024. I may have said 2025, I meant 2024. The chop consolidation of 2024, Bitcoin spent about 8 months between uh 60, let's call it $55,000 and $70,000. So, the very high end of that, which it only spiked into uh very briefly at various points, was uh between 70 and $75,000. So James check says okay 35% chance that we go into the upper end of that range. Uh and then there is a 25% chance 25% chance that we see a low this cycle meaning sometime in the coming months or you know next 6 months or whatever it is below $65,000. So what should you do assuming those are accurate? First of all we don't know. We don't know if those are accurate. James Czech is the best weather forecaster in the world of Bitcoin. Meaning like every weather person, they can make a best guess at whether what the weather's going to be tomorrow, but they don't know what the weather's going to be tomorrow. So the best weather forecaster in the world is not right all the time. But let's assume he is. Let's assume his probabilities are 100% accurate. What should you do? Well, if you look at the history of Bitcoin, 100% of the time, this the probabilities that Bitcoin will not go that low um are way out of whack with what they would have to be in order to make waiting make sense. So, for example, waiting for $75,000 instead of buying it at $89,000, you're only getting a 15% discount, a 1.5% discount. But the upside of Bitcoin, whether or not you plug it into Chat GPT as 2x your money, 3x your money, or 10x your money, it's going to tell you that based on the price history of Bitcoin, which historically was much more volatile than it is now, meaning the probabilities it would give you are actually much higher than is realistic, even the highest probabilities it gives you would say you would need a much higher level of certainty that you're going to get $75,000 than James Checks giving. you at 35% chance. So again, you need you need probabilities way up in the 90% chance to make sense for it to wait. And again, you can ask chat GBT this. You can you can uh feed it the entire Bitcoin price history, which I've done, and I have a copy if you if you want it, and I've uploaded it in the past to Facebook, so you can just pull it down from Dropbox off of a Facebook link I uploaded a few weeks ago or maybe a month or two back. But anyway, you can upload the entire history of Bitcoin and you can say, "Hey, James Czech says there is a 35% chance that Bitcoin is going to go as low as $75,000 after Bitcoin is already discounted as much as it is now in a draw down, a price draw down. What are the probabilities that it's going to drop 15% more 15% more on top of how much it's already down from the all-time high?" And it's going to give you a number. or chat GBT is going to say the probability that's going to happen is X, Y, or Z. And the probability that that's going to happen versus the probability that that would need to happen in order to make sense for you to wait is totally not in your favor waiting. I forget what those numbers are. I did not run them fresh because I spent so much time doing that about a month ago or something like that. But the numbers are way out of way out of whack. You end up with somewhere between 4x to 8x odds against you if you wait versus buy now. Meaning the probability you miss out on the upside is typically about quadruple to 8x the probability that you actually get the dip you're waiting for. In most cases when I was running the math before the probabilities that would need to be well into the 90%. And again James check is only giving you probabilities of getting into the 70s of 35% and probabilities uh of getting below $65,000 of 25%. So even if you add those, you're at 60%. 35 plus 25, you're at 60%. But the probabilities that uh tip the scales where it's actually makes economic sense and statistical sense to wait are up in the '9s. So don't ever take a chance on something when you have a 60% chance of winning if your break even point is up in the 90% chances. Like you're just absolutely massively working against yourself. Even if somebody gave me any amount of money right now, like literally this minute, if somebody walked up to me and handed me a $100,000 check, I would immediately buy Bitcoin regardless of the price right now. I would not check. I would not time it. I would not wait and see how things go. Monday morning when the stock market opens, I wouldn't do anything stupid. I would buy as much Bitcoin as I could. I would buy it right now and I would buy it regardless of the price because statistically, that's the only thing that makes any sense. And honestly, it's what I wish I had done in 2018 and 2019 and 2020. That's what I should have done. I didn't I didn't buy nearly as much Bitcoin as I should have. Um it's the same regret I have that everyone has. I didn't buy as much as I should have because it seemed expensive and I thought it would drop more. And I told myself if it did drop more, I would buy more. But then it did drop more and I didn't buy more. So, even if you think you're going to buy more when the price drops, you're not going to because either the price will never drop or if the price does drop, you will chicken out like we all do because human beings are genetically programmed to chicken out when an asset price is falling. So, back in my case, back in 2017, I bought a fair amount of Bitcoin at about $9,000 per coin. So, I'm up 10x a,000% gain. I told myself if the price dropped in half down to 4,500, I was going to buy a lot more at half price. The price did drop to 4,500 and it stayed there for months on end below 4,500. And I did not do what I said I was going to do. I did not buy a bunch of Bitcoin for $4,500 per coin because I chickenened out. I had not done the research. I had not done the studying. Um, I was afraid the price was going to keep dropping. I was afraid maybe the Bitcoin I had bought at 9,000 was, you know, the the last the party was shutting down. I had caught Bitcoin on the tail end. Maybe it was not going to recover. So, I did not buy all the Bitcoin at 4,500 I thought I was going to. Even back then, if I had run the statistics, it would have said, "Don't do that. Don't play that game. You're going to get burned." Guess what? I burned myself by not buying the Bitcoin I said I was going to buy. I didn't buy the Bitcoin. I ended up worse off than I would have been. Don't play those games. I wish I had bought a ton more Bitcoin at $9,000. I wish I had not played that game. I wish I had not waited for a price dip. I wish I had not chickenened out when the price dip actually happened, which is what you're you're going to do if you are waiting for a price dip. No matter what the price dips to, you're going to freak out because the the price is dipping. The price will be dipping for a reason. when the price is dipping for a reason. People think it's going to keep dipping and then as soon as they blink it goes back up and then they feel like they missed the dip and now they don't want to buy it because it's expensive before, you know, it's expensive again. At least that's what they perceive and they promise themselves they're going to buy the next price dip and of course they never do. Don't play those games. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It never makes statistical sense to do anything else other than that. Again, the formula is the same. It's just not that hard. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. That's just how this works. And everyone who's ever done that has eventually within months or years been absolutely thrilled with the return on their investment. And sometimes, depending on the when you buy Bitcoin, it takes time. Just like my $9,000 investment in Bitcoin, I had to wait a while. for months or even at some point longer than a year it was below $9,000. But eventually here we are and it's now 10 times that price. I just had to be patient and I wish I had bought way more Bitcoin before I had to be patient. But that's the formula.