Thoughts on Bitcoin at $61,500

Bitcoin is down right now at $61,500. So, I'm going to give you all of my thoughts. First of all, is anything wrong with Bitcoin? No. Nothing's ever wrong with Bitcoin. The technology, the software, the value proposition, the monetary properties, all of the fundamentals about what makes Bitcoin amazing is all rock solid like it's always been. Okay. So, what has happened over the last three or four, it's really four months. What's happened over the last four months that has resulted in the price of Bitcoin dropping in half? First of all, it spiked up to 126,000 for a very short time. It was only above 126,000 for two full minutes. Um, so really the highest it ever got in a sort of, you know, dayto-day was 124. But regardless, 124, 126, it's come down to half that. Okay, so first of all, I can't remember what triggered the selloff between October 6 and October 10. Maybe it was the air strikes on Iran. Maybe it was something else. I can't remember. But anyway, geopolitical tensions sort of started everybody getting nervous. Um, then the fact that the strategic Bitcoin reserve did not materialize in the United States, uh, made some other people lose interest, even though that was never the core thesis of Bitcoin. Um, then we had, let's see, then we had the interest rates are not coming down as fast as some people predicted. Then Kevin Walsh was appointed the new head of the Federal Reserve and he claims he's going to be a lot more responsible with the US dollar than the US government has been historically even though we know he doesn't have any ability to do that. Um then uh probably one of the most recent items was uh fading hopes that the US Congress will pass the clarity act which is not really relevant to Bitcoin but it does give regulatory clarity to other cryptocurrency assets other than Bitcoin and there's some elements that are actually helpful to Bitcoin but it's really not a Bitcoin bill. Uh and then you combine on top of that additional air strikes uh today or yesterday in Syria and basically just people are freaking out. They're panicking. They're dumping AI stocks. They're dumping gold and silver are going all over the place and there's just a ton of volatility in the market and everybody's freaked out and selling and panicking and all that. So, I'm going to walk through each of those items and why each of those should be a reason people are buying Bitcoin or holding Bitcoin, not selling Bitcoin. And then I'll give some thoughts, some broader thoughts. One second. Okay, one second. Sorry, thirstier than I thought. Um, okay. Okay. So, first of all, anytime countries are bombing each other, that means you should probably trust the currency of countries less. Because if you're bombing countries, you're causing geopolitical tensions, which is not good for international trade. It's not good for the dollar being the reserve currency. It's not good for anything that results in you living on the dollar and depending on the dollar. So, if people are bombing each other, you should buy Bitcoin. People sell Bitcoin when bombs fall because people are too ignorant to understand that. All right, next up, uh, interest rates not falling as fast as they should, you know, could have. So what? They're they're going to fall no matter what anyway. It's just a matter of time. Second or third, strategic Bitcoin reserve. Again, as I've done videos before, the thesis of Bitcoin was never that the US government's going to buy a ton of it and we're all going to get rich. That was never the thesis of Bitcoin. If that's the thesis of Bitcoin, then one day the US government could dump a bunch of Bitcoin and make us all poor. you don't want the government to have that much power. Even though on net, I'd rather the US government own Bitcoin versus not. That was never part of my core thesis. Uh Kevin W, we've talked about that. He doesn't have a choice. He's going to print the money. There's no other way. Like the US government is in so much debt, the interest payments are so high and the system will break under the weight of that debt unless he prints the money. So, what's he gonna do? He's going to print the money. He may not print it as fast as people think he's going to print it, but he's going to print a ton of money because the system, the US dollar system is built on debt and there is no other way. So, the biggest reason probably though that Bitcoin is going down is Bitcoin is going down because Bitcoin is going down. So, what happens is when people uh use leverage, which they should not, uh I've done an entire video again today about why you should not use a Bitcoin backed loan, even though I myself have dab dabbled in them just because uh for learning purposes and because I want to experience the pain you're experiencing by having to watch the price and be stressed out about the price. I did videos on all of that uh today. Uh but anyway, uh people who use leverage irresponsibly get liquidated. There was a lot of people who used Bitcoin back loans and things like that when the price was above $100,000 and that means they had liquidation levels at like $70,000. Well, guess what happened? You hit the $70,000, those people get liquidated. When you get liquidated, your Bitcoin is forcibly sold onto the market, which drives the price down even farther. So, you get this liquidation cascade where the more people that are the more people that that hit their sort of stop losses or that hit their liquidation levels, they dump their Bitcoin, which pushes the price lower, which hits the next guy's liquidation level, which hits the next guy's liquidation level, and before you know it, the price is a lot lower than anyone thought it would go. So, those things happen. They just do. It happens and it pushes the price lower. Now, is any of this really a problem for Bitcoin? The answer is no, because we've just been here before. We've been here a bunch of times. So in Bitcoin's history, the very first massive price draw down in 2011 was 94%. And guess what? Almost no assets survived a 94% draw down. Bitcoin bounced right back. In the next big price draw down, which was after 2013, the price dropped by 93%. Not 94, 93. What did the price do? It bounced right back. The next big price draw down, the biggest one, there was obviously along the way 40%, 50% various times. The next big one was 84%. Again, not 8, not 94, not 93, but 84, significantly less, as in the remainder of what was left of Bitcoin went from 6% to 7% to 16% um of the value remained when it hit the bottom. Uh and then the price, what did it do? It went on to set new record highs and outperform every other asset in the marketplace. And then after 20 uh 2021, the 2022 bare market, the price dropped 77.5%. Which again leaves 22.5%. And what did the price do? It bounced right back. Now, all of that was prior to the Bitcoin ETFs. And all of that was prior to institutional adoption and all of these things. So, I don't think the price drops, you know, frankly, I don't think the price can or will drop much farther than 50%. Which is basically where we're at right now. Um or maybe a little bit more than 50%. But regardless, it feels like we're, you know, if we're not at the bottom, we're close and everyone will be fine. All of the reasons that things cascade down, they always bottom. They always bottom when you finally run out of people that trip their stop losses. It's never going to zero. There's a limit to how low Bitcoin can go. And we'll get if we're not already there, we'll get there soon. It'll f it'll be fine. It'll bottom and then it'll just start climbing for probably the next three or four years. And that's just what happens in markets. Now, nobody predicted that this bare market would would come. The majority of people uh that are in the world of Bitcoin thought that we would not get a 2026 bare market uh and planned accordingly. And again, if you didn't use leverage, it just doesn't matter. You know, you don't have to care. Um but anyway, so all that to say all of the reasons the price is going down are not good reasons the price is going down. Which means we are actively right now separating uh the wheat from the chaff, the true believers from the tourists, the people who have conviction from the people who don't have conviction. And what matters is can you hold it together so that the price dips? You don't care. It recovers. You're happy. Everybody's happy. And the only way you lose in all of this is if you sell your Bitcoin. If you don't sell your Bitcoin, you don't lose and everybody's fine and it's all good. Um, so am I worried about any of this? No, I'm not worried about any of this. I've I did an entire video on um, you know, why Bitcoin is not a bubble. I covered the, you know, the price corrections in the past. I walked through all of that. Um, you know, and it's on it's on my YouTube page. You can go find it. Um, anyway, so I'm not worried about any of this. Even though my net worth, my entire net worth, all the wealth I've built over the last 23 years is down by more than 50% right now. It's fine. I don't care if you need some of my not caring to help you out. I'll I'll I'll I'll loan you an unlimited amount of it doesn't bother me. So, if you need some of my it doesn't bother me because it is bothering you, I got plenty of it because Bitcoin always comes back. The reason Bitcoin is an asset that you can safely invest in and just hold is because it always comes back. It always comes back because the underlying monetary properties are so valuable that it eventually pushes Bitcoin to new all-time highs that outperform every other asset. That's just what always happens. And that is what is hap going to happen again right now. So yeah, is my net worth more than 50% down right now? Yeah, but who cares? I'm not spending all of my entire life's wealth today. Now what? So what? It's a dip. I've been living for free for more than three years now. And guess what? Today, Bitcoin is dipping. So what? It'll rebound. It's done this so many times. I've seen this movie so many times. I've been to through two bare markets after 2017 and after 2021. I know what this looks like. I know how this movie ends. It's got a happy ending. Just look, it's going to be painful for like today or the last few weeks or the last few months, however you want to measure it. And when does the pain end? I don't know. In some number of hours, days, you know, weeks, months, I don't know, probably short, but nobody knows. But at the end of the day, all that matters is the is Bitcoin always recovers. It always eventually sets new all-time highs, and it always eventually outperforms every other asset 100% of the time. like it's done this for 17 years and this price behavior is not unique. It's too many people used too much leverage, did too much dumb stuff, and there was too many people who bought Bitcoin that didn't know what they owned and freaked out and sold it. Well, so what? That's fine. They sold it at $62,000. They'll come back and reby it at $262,000. That's fine. Like, it's okay. They'll, you know, it's their loss, but it doesn't have to be your loss. The only way it's your loss is if you actually sell Bitcoin. If you don't sell the Bitcoin, you're fine. And again, just let it ride. Everything's fine in the world. Bitcoin is just fine. There is no there's no actual legitimate concern around Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is just the recipient of being out of favor temporarily with people tied up in a bunch of dumb stuff, people believing news headlines about stupid stuff that's not true. It's fine. It's all going to be fine. Just breathe. Go touch grass. Go chill out. Go focus on something else. Bitcoin will rebound. Bitcoin will be fine. And if you can buy more Bitcoin on sale, it's a steal. It's a steal right now. It's a great time to buy Bitcoin. And there's going to be a zillion people like always who say, "I should have bought Bitcoin when it was way down. I knew I should have, but I didn't. And now it's high again." And wow, I should have should have should have. Well, guess what? You should have, should have. You can do it right now. Like, you can buy more Bitcoin right now. So, uh, nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. All is well in Bitcoin land. Uh if you need a reassuring word from me, feel free to reach out on Facebook Messenger or text me. uh happy to or go watch the videos I've done for the last couple days which have everything you need to know about everything you could possibly want to know about why Bitcoin's down and why you don't need to worry about