Thoughts on bitcoin at $76,500

thoughts on Bitcoin at $76,500 where it is right now. First of all, did we get a pullback from the low8s? Yes, we did. James Czech says that was likely. Uh, according to James Czech, major resistance levels are typically not cleared on the first attempt. Um, if you go back and watch the video, I did a video, the title is something like why $78,000, $85,000, and $95,000 price levels are so important. Something like that. I can't I can't remember the first price level, but the second were $85,000 and $95,000. And in that video, I talk about the fact that James Czech I talk about why those price levels are so important. And the truth about in any market when you hit, you know, certain levels where there's been a lot of buying activity, where a lot of people have their cost basis, you end up not clearing them often on the first uh the first go. And the reason for that is if you have a lot of people with their cost basis in uh between 80 and $85,000, which is the case, then a certain percentage of those people are going to sell when the price is rising and they can get their money back. Again, the vast majority of people who own any asset are not thoroughly educated on all of it and all of its capabilities. The same is true of Tesla stock. The same is true the upcoming SpaceX IPO next month where uh Elon Musk's company SpaceX is going public in the largest IPO in the history of humanity history of the world. Biggest IPO ever. A bunch of people are going to buy that that don't know anything about space travel. They don't know anything about the um you know the mechanics of profitability of the Starling Starlink satellite ecosystem payloads for the spar you know Raptor 3 engines. They just don't know any of that. And so the same thing's going to happen. You know, SpaceX at some point will go high. It will go low. On its way back high again, it's going to have to clear uh various resistance levels where a lot of people have bought and some of those people are going to sell. So that's exactly what happened this time. The first time after the $60,000 low on February 5th, uh the first time we tried to clear and get all the way to $85,000, we hit that resistance in the low $80,000. too many people had bought too much Bitcoin at that price and too many of them were willing to sell it uh when it hit that level to try to get some of their money back uh because again they don't understand Bitcoin. They don't understand what they hold. They don't understand that in you know greater than 80% likelihood that $60,000 was the bottom and it's just like just like back in 2022 when the price bottomed at 15,500. It took a few goes to get past 20,000. Why was that? Well, because a lot of people had bought it when they thought 20,000 was the bottom. It bottomed at 15,500, they were afraid it was just going to keep going down. And so, as the price kept trying to clear, you know, 20,000, I forget what the exact number was, but a lot of people had their cost basis, whatever it was, 18 or 19 or 20 or something like that. Uh, so same thing happens when the price is trying to bounce to climb again. Uh, and obviously it's climbed a long way from 2022 because back then it bottomed at 15,500. Now it's bottomed at 60,000, four times as high. Um, so if you look at the, you know, the the the bottom levels, the four most recent bottom levels, uh, the price bottomed uh in 20, what was it? 2014 at $92. Uh, 2018 at $3,200. So 92, $3,200, uh, 6, uh, 15,500 in 2022, and 60,000 in 2026. Um but again a lot of people don't understand that. They don't understand that the trajectory is up and to the right. So they bought some thought think you know in the low 80,000s after the first big price correction in November. A bunch of people thought bought in the low 80,000s thinking that was the bottom. The bottom ended up being 60,000. Those people have been underwater for a while. Uh you know and they're going to panic sell when they can get all or most of their money back. Now why why wouldn't that just keep happening over and over and over? Why wouldn't we keep bumping our head on the low 80,000s and getting rejected over and over? And the answer is because there's a finite number of people in Bitcoin that was bought in the low 80,000s. So let's say uh you know we we don't know because we don't know people's buying behaviors and people themselves don't know the buying behaviors because often people make emotionally driven decisions and so they don't know in advance what they're going to do. So, even if you pulled every single Bitcoin holder who had a cost basis um in the low 80,000s and said, "What are you going to do when it touches low 80,000s?" A lot of them would tell you what they think they're going to do. And the truth is, they're actually going to do something different because their circumstances will change, their emotions will change. They're just, you know, people are often act irrationally in the moment. We don't know how much of that resistance in the low 80,000s got eaten through on the first go. If it was half of it, then we're going to have to do that one more time and then we're off to the races. Up through 85, up through 95 and, you know, before we'll know it, we'll be in the six figure uh six figures above 100,000 again. If we only ate through onethird of the people, that means we're going to have to bump against that zone three times total instead of two times total. Um, who knows? There is a chance that we almost broke through this time. That 95% of the people who were going to sell did sell or maybe even 99% of all the people that were going to sell in the low 80,000s already did which pushed the price back down to where we are right now at 76,500. But depending on how much of that resistance of people who are likely to sell them low 80,000s, uh depending on how big of a bite we took at the apple determines how many bites we're going to have to take at the apple to break through. Maybe we almost broke through this time and there's going to be almost no resistance on the way up. Maybe we go shoot straight through because there's almost none left. Maybe we only broke through half of the resistance or I should say ate through. Maybe we only ate through with demand. Half, maybe a third. We don't know. Uh typically it doesn't take more than a couple tries to break through a resistance like that because that's just the nature of the nature of markets is typically you don't you don't keep hitting resistance over and over and over and over. you tend to have to just hit it, I don't know, once, twice, maybe at most three times over the course of a series of weeks, and then you break through and then you know that all the people that are going to sell, they've run out of Bitcoin that they're either can sell because they have no more Bitcoin or they run out of Bitcoin that they're willing to sell at the low 80,000s and then you break through. According to James Check, he's like, "Look, we've broken through that first resistance of 78,000 or whatever it is and we once you break through it once, you typically don't have to break through it again." So, yes, we're below 78,000 or whatever the number was. We're below it right now, but once you've already broken through it once, then it's not like there's a big not it's not like the wall rebuilds and you got to break through it a second time. Cuz right now, the only people who have a cost basis in let's call it 78,000 are people who bought or sold very recently. all of that, you know, supply cluster that was there on the way down from, you know, January and February, we ate through all of that on the way back up. Um, so now it's just supply and demand. I don't expect, you know, that doesn't mean we're going to immediately go up with no resistance at all. It just means we're not likely to bounce off of 78,000 the same way we bounced off of the low 80,000s. We're already through that first resistance even though we're below it right now. It should not reappear. Um there is a certain amount of supply in the low 80,000s that we have to eat through. We ate through some of it this last goround over the last week or two and you know however much is left which is not necessarily knowable at least not with certainty. James Czech is the best person in the world at understanding how much of you know supply is still sitting there that might get sold. But even he would say look it's the the the math and the science is not precise enough to predict that perfectly. You can just say hey over the last week or two we took a big bite out of that uh that Bitcoin that was available for sale in the low 80,000s. How much of it is left to still be sold? It's probably not knowable. Uh, it's just, hey, we took a big bite out of it and so, you know, a big chunk of it's gone. How much more is still there? Well, we'll find out as soon as we hit that resistance again. If we shoot through it, it means we ate up most of it this last goround. If we, you know, bounce again against the low 80,000s and we grind around in the low 80,000s for a couple days or a week or two and then we are back into the mid to high 70s. Well, that means we had to take another big bite and we're still not through it. Or maybe we took a 50% bite out of it this time and a 49% bite out of it the next time and then we're going to shoot through it because there's only 1% left, you know, on the third go. I don't know. But the good news is the demand for Bitcoin in the long term is always always higher than the supply of Bitcoin in the long term, which is why we've gone from zero to $76,500. The only way you get there is because it's growing and growing and growing. And so, yeah, it grows. Back in 2014, you know, 2013, there was a big spike and then it dropped to 92,000. And then over the next four years, it went much much much higher and dropped to $3,200. And then it went much much much much higher than any of the numbers before and dropped to $15,500. Uh, and then it went much much much much higher than any of those numbers, highs or lows before that, and now dropped to $60,000. And it'll keep doing this. Look, I don't know what's next. Maybe, you know, maybe it'll run to $250,000 or $350,500. I don't know what the next big stop is. And then it'll pull back to, I don't know, $200,000. Nobody knows. Pick a number, you know, goes up to 350, drops back to 200, and it'll do it all over again. People will be like, "Oh, we're in a bare market. You know, it's $200,000, blah, blah, blah." Everybody will be all sad. It's like, "Yeah, but the last low was $60,000 and this low is $200,000." Like, how is that not a good thing? And you know, human psychology just is what it is. So, Bitcoin will be fine. The positive news all across the world is almost I mean, literally virtually, if not 100% in Bitcoin's favor. uh which means it's only a matter of time till the supply uh is eaten up by the demand and we are off to the races again and Bitcoin is fun again uh for most of or all of the next three years which is why we do it uh because the asset keeps going up and up and up in the long term you know long term outperforms absolutely everything else so that's Bitcoin