Thoughts on Bitcoin at $77,000

So the first question is, is anything wrong with Bitcoin? No, nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. Um, Bitcoin, the hash rate of the network, the security, the throughput, how many transactions, uh, the total value of all the transactions the Bitcoin network is processing, the strength of the, you know, software, the network, the nodes, all the vital signs. You know, if you lined the patient up on on the doctor's table and say, "Hey, let's take your let's take your vital signs and let's check your health. Is anything wrong with Bitcoin?" No, nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. is doing just amazing as always. Okay, so nothing wrong with the patient. So why are people not valuing the patient, this amazing thing that does amazing stuff, why is it only being valued at $77,000 per coin instead of prices that were much higher? Um, first of all, let's go to the fundamental thesis of Bitcoin. Is it because people think money is not going to be useful as a technology anymore? Is anybody hypothesizing that Bitcoin is no longer going to be necessary because we are going to all return to barter, meaning we're all just going to trade with each other and we're not going to use any sort of money at all. We're just going to like straight up exchange. No, nobody's nobody's arguing that. So, nobody's arguing anything's wrong with Bitcoin. Nobody's arguing that we're going to go back to barter as a form of economic coordination rather than uh the use of money as an intermediary. money being something you get paid for and then you use it to go buy what you need or money being something that you save as uh value in the short term before you turn around and then spend it uh longer term for whatever it is you need. So no, again, nobody's nobody's arguing anything's wrong with Bitcoin, the Bitcoin network, the technology, the protocol, encryption. Nobody's arguing anything's wrong with that. Nobody's arguing that anything is um you know that that there's a a thesis wrong with the use of money as a technology. Okay. So, what is going on? What is happening right now is that the reason Bitcoin's price is down is people are arguing about which money we're going to use in the future based on how likely the US government and government adjacent uh organizations like the Federal Reserve, how likely they are to be responsible with their spending, with government debt, and with what is called debasing the currency. That means making too much of it which results in a value loss, a purchasing power loss of the existing units. So since Kevin Marsh was uh uh nominated, Bitcoin and gold and silver have fallen off not a cliff, but they're obviously down significantly since Kevin Marsh's nomination. And the thesis behind that is gold and silver had gone on a huge run as people had increasingly lost faith that the United States would ever get its deficits and its debt under control or that the Federal Reserve would ever just stop, you know, debasing the currency. And uh anyway, Kevin Walsh is a relatively sort of sound money guy who in the past when it was possible to be a sound money person advocated for sound money. Now, you got to realize those that advocacy in the past was not when the United States government was $ 38 trillion in debt. You can actually get yourself out of a massive debt um debt burden as long as your debt to GDP is manageable. In fact, back when the national debt was below $20 trillion instead of $38 trillion, there was a significant movement to pass a balanced budget amendment to try to get the debt under control. There's almost no talk of that anymore. And the reason for that is it's completely pointless. The United States is so deep in debt that it doesn't even matter if you try to balance the budget. There's no possible way the debt can be paid off. Which means we're either going to default on the debt, which is not going to happen because we have a magic money printer called the Federal Reserve, or they're going to print the money out of uh to get us out from under this debt, which is what's going to happen. The US is going to print the money. So this is very similar early about a year ago when Elon Musk launched Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency Efficiency, DO GE, and was supposedly going to cut $2 trillion out of the debt, uh, sorry, the deficit, which is obviously going to bring the the debt way down over time. That was never going to happen because it required the actions of politicians. And politicians generally are almost completely or totally worthless. uh they don't do what they're going to say. Even if they want to do the right thing, the constraints of the systems that they are within and the incentives of those systems and the way that in financially the US government has been completely painted itself into a corner with all the debt we already own. There's just no choice. You have to run the economy hot and debase the currency and get the debt to GDP back to a manageable level. That is the only way out of this maze that we have gotten ourselves into by excessive spending for an extended period of time. So, Bitcoin is down because people are wondering if the government and the Federal Reserve are suddenly going to be principled for the long haul. They're just going to be rock solid. The US dollar is going to be great, blah blah blah. It's not going to happen. It can't happen. Ne not only has that never happened in all of history, there's never been a a uh an economy in all of history that was run on sound money where the people that controlled the money did not eventually make too much of it. 100% of the time fiat currencies, which are or currencies controlled by humans, 100% of the time those currencies collapse eventually. It's just a matter of time because when you have a magic money printer always eventually someone's going to use it. It's just the nature of humans. So if I thought so let let's run a thought experiment right here. Um, if Jesus came back today and eradicated sin from the world and sin from human nature and humans were now perfect and for whatever reason God decided to leave us right here on this earth in perfection and then somebody said, "Hey, do we still need Bitcoin?" I'd be like, "Well, I mean, now we have perfect people running everything." When you have perfect people at running everything and they decide not to use a magic bunny printer, maybe that's a possibility. Although I still don't know what you do with $38 trillion in debt. Like there's no good options. Even if the people were perfect, like I still don't know how you don't print the money. Like how do you what do you do with 38 trillion in debt that you can never pay off? Like I I don't know. I guess I guess maybe the perfect people in Washington DC are going to suddenly balance the budget and then pay off the debt over the next, you know, a thousand years. I don't know. But regardless, it doesn't matter because Jesus didn't come back today. We don't have perfect people in Washington, DC, and they're not going to stop spending us into oblivion. And it doesn't matter what party's in control, the Republicans, the Democrats, you know, it it doesn't matter. They're going to spend us into oblivion. And while they're spending us into oblivion, the Federal Reserve is going to keep making more money out of thin air to support and finance all of that. They don't have a choice. What are they going to do? allow the US economy to completely collapse. They're not going to do that, which means they're going to print the money. Now, the the the thesis of that's what's going on is the only thing that explains why Bitcoin, gold, and silver are down. If something had resulted in Bitcoin falling out of favor, but people still believe that the government was going to debase debase the currency, then at least gold would still be up. You would see gold up, Bitcoin down. And then you say, "Wow, something must be wrong with Bitcoin." uh because everybody seems to have agreed that we're all just going to use gold as the you know neutral reserve asset you know reserve currency of the universe. Uh but we're not going to do that because gold's way down also which tells you that what is affecting the macro meaning big picture environment is something that is negatively affecting gold, silver and bitcoin. And that is people freaking out saying hey if Kevin Worsh doesn't print spend the money uh doesn't print the money maybe precious metals are going to go down. Maybe Bitcoin's going to go down and maybe everything else is going to go down because the whole system's going to collapse. The whole system's not going to collapse again. They have a magic money printer. You don't go bankrupt when you have a magic money printer because it's always less painful to print your way out, which is exactly what they're going to do. They're going to print their way out. So, do I have a problem with $77,000 Bitcoin? No. as it goes down, I'll buy more of it using um Bitcoin backed loans on Strike, which I do not recommend you do unless you have so much Bitcoin that the collateral you're putting up is such a tiny percentage of your total Bitcoin that the probability of getting liquidated is zero. So, don't do that unless you have a ton of Bitcoin and you're basically just messing around like I am because you think the Bitcoin price is ridiculously on sale. You're 100% Bitcoin already, which means I have no I have no stocks, no bonds. I have no real estate I can sell because the only real estate I own is my house. I have I have nothing I can sell to buy more Bitcoin, which means the only avenue I have to buy more Bitcoin is borrowing against something that I already own. I'm not going to borrow against my house because my family lives in it. And I'm not going to borrow I already borrowed against my Tesla when I financed it. So, I just did it on the front end. When you finance a vehicle, you're borrowing against the vehicle for the long term to pay it off. So, my Tesla is already financed at 6.25% for 5 years. Uh it'll be fine. This might be the first month that I have a down payment. Uh meaning I'm down on my Bitcoin at the time of the payment. Uh in the past, uh I bought I bought the Tesla when Bitcoin was uh $85,000 per coin. So, I've never had a payment that was not heavily discounted. My biggest heavily discounted payment was like 40%. the price of the payment for the Tesla was 40% less than it would have been had I sold, you know, the Bitcoin and just bought the Tesla. Uh, so so far that strategy has worked out really well. Um, obviously that doesn't mean I'll never have a month where the price is below $85,000 at the time the the payment is due, but who cares? There's like 60 payments over 5 years. And if one or two of them are below $85,000, that doesn't matter. It means like 58 whatever 58 or 59 of them or however many I think it was a 5year anyway are going to be when Bitcoin is up uh and probably the vast majority when it's up radically higher than $85,000. So I'm going to buy more Bitcoin with Bitcoin backed loans. Again, I do not recommend you do that. Any other source of capital is better and less risky unless you just have so much Bitcoin that you can afford to do it because you're never going to get liquidated, which is the position I'm in. there's no way I'm going to ever get it liquidated on a Bitcoin back loan. Um because I can always just add more collateral and I can drop the liquidation down into the single digits if I have to. Um you know, the liquidation level of of the price of Bitcoin, I can just drive it as low as I want it by adding collateral. Um so anyway, so I'm just glad the class of 2025 that bought Bitcoin for the first time uh last year has a chance to buy beat uh cheap Bitcoin. I didn't think they would, honestly. I thought I was feeling bad for the class of 2025. I was thinking the downside of adopting Bitcoin in 2025 is you never really got a good solid period of cheap prices uh to accumulate at. And now you do. You have prices with a seven prices that start with a seven 70 uh or in this case 78 $78,000 or $77,000 when I started recording this video. You can buy as much Bitcoin as you want at 77,000 78,000. That's amazing. uh you know, so if you first bought Bitcoin last year, look, that doesn't mean you have a lot of cash laying around to buy more Bitcoin, but if you have any laying around to buy more Bitcoin, well, you can buy it at a significantly discounted price uh of 77,000 78,000 or whatever it is. So, the the price is a blessing. In the rearview mirror, it will all be obvious. In the rearview mirror, you'll think, "Dang it, I should have known. I I knew Bitcoin was on sale. Why didn't I buy more Bitcoin?" But especially because nothing was wrong with Bitcoin. Nothing was wrong with the thesis of Bitcoin. Nothing nothing makes sense about the price of Bitcoin other than that humans are temporarily acting irrationally. And the best time to buy any asset is when human beings are temporarily acting irrationally. So that's right now. Right now, humans are acting irrationally, undervaluing Bitcoin, which is probably pushing the price down into the, you know, 77,000 78,000, which lets you, as long as your head's still screwed on straight, as long as you're still thinking clearly, if all of that is still true, it lets you buy Bitcoin from those people at a discount. So, while they're capitulating and selling their Bitcoin, in many cases, at a loss, you can pick it up for a huge future gain. It's great. That's the way assets work. If you understand the asset and people are dumping the asset because they don't get it, you can buy it from them at a discount, which I recommend. It's fantastic. So, nothing's wrong with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is as strong as it's ever been. It'll only get stronger. The price will eventually rebound. It always does. It always has. It's just not that hard. It's straightforward. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Formula never changes. And the formula has never been wrong in the entire history of Bitcoin. That's how it works. It's not that hard. Thanks everyone.