Was $60,000.01 the bottom?

was $60,000 and one penny last night. The Bitcoin bottom of this Bitcoin bare market. First of all, we don't know. Nobody knows. Uh Michael Sailor has bought tens of billions of dollars of Bitcoin above today's price. I have bought hundreds of thousands of dollars of Bitcoin above today's price. If anybody knew the top or bottom of any asset, you could use 100x leverage and make a gazillion dollars. Nobody does. And so everybody who tries to do that using 40x, 50x, 100x leverage, they always blow themselves up and lose money. It's just absolutely like clockwork. So there are a few things that can tell us whether that was the bottom. And I'll walk through some of those things are so at least we can get a sense of the probabilities that 60,000 and one penny was the bottom. First of all, it reminds me of an episode of The Office. My family loves The Office and Parks and Recreation. Uh those are probably two our two of our favorite alltime shows along with young Sheldon. We love Young Sheldon as well. Uh but anyway, uh The Office is our favorite and uh there's an episode in there where Dwight there uh everybody in the office is bidding on something and Dwight is constantly bidding one penny more. So it's like $10 and Dwight is like $10 and one penny and then somebody's like $12 and Dwight Dwight Dwight's like $12 and one penny. He's always like out bidding by literally one penny. Well, anyway, the lowest the price got on Coinbase last night for Bitcoin was $60,000 and one penny. So, if you had a buy order, which I don't recommend using buy orders, uh, set at specific prices because this is the problem with them. If you had it set at 60,000, guess what? It never got triggered because the price came within one penny of triggering your buy order and then it didn't. So, your buy order, you're sitting there. Bitcoin's price is $70,000 right now, and you're thinking, "You got within one penny of buying Bitcoin at 60, which is why I just buy it at whatever price I can whenever I have money, because I don't play those games." But anyway, um, so we don't know if 60,000 and one penny was the bottom. Probably it probably was greater than 50% chance, greater than 60% chance, I don't know, greater than 70% chance. I don't know. But nobody knows. The short take is nobody knows. Now, the only thing that did not happen yesterday that typically happens when there is a Bitcoin bare market is that funding rates flip negative. Now, I don't fully understand this whole world. So, I'm going to like super simplify it, but if I'm using the wrong terminology, please forgive me because I don't do futures and options and puts and calls. I don't play any of the complicated games that almost everybody loses money at. I just buy Bitcoin as much as I can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible, which is what I recommend for you. But there's something interesting that often happens, not always, but often happens when you do hit the very bottom of a bare market, uh, or just a massive mega price dip, which is typically if more people are trying to buy longs, which is betting the price is going to go up. If you're betting the price of something is going to go up, it's called being long. If you're betting the price is going to go down, it's called being short. So, when somebody shorts a stock, it means they're borrowing the stock, selling it into the market immediately, and they're planning to pay it back with shares later at a cheaper price. And the only reason you would do that is if you think the price of the stock is falling. Uh, anyway, you should not ever short anything. It's a great way to lose money. But anyway, typically what you see is people will be trying to long the bottom. Long the bottom with leverage is when every time the price dips, they do like 40 to1 leverage. Um, and if you do 40 to1 leverage on BitMX or Binance or something, which you should never do, then your portfolio gets liquidated. If the price moves two and a half percent. So, uh, and if you use 20 to1 leverage, then the price moves 5% you get liquidated. So, anyway, I'll use I'll use, you know, 20 to1 leverage, even though a lot of people are using 40 to1, uh, even though that is super stupid and they lose a ton of money. But at 20 to1 leverage, let's say somebody goes somebody thinks, you know, $70,000 or $80,000 is the bottom. So they go leverage long and they're they they blow up their portfolio at 75. So they go leverage long at 75 thinking this must be the bottom. So then at they get liquidated at 70 and they think it can't go below 70. And so they do leverage long at 70 and their portfolio gets blown up at 65. And then typically they use almost the last of their money and they say leverage long at 65. This is the bottom. And then their portfolio blows up yet again when the price goes below 65. And finally with the tiny little bit last of their money, they go find some social media influencer who's told them that they should have been short the whole time. That they would have made a ton of money if they were short Bitcoin all the way down. And now they can short Bitcoin the rest of the way down and make a ton of money. So what do they do? They flip. And typically they do this at the very last wrong time. They flip and say, "Okay, at, you know, $61,000, I'm going short." And so they short the market. Well, I'm going to call it 60,000 even though the price only went down to 60,000 in a penny. So they short the market at 60,000, thinking I've blown up, you know, 80 90% of my portfolio. I'm going to use the last of the money to short Bitcoin at $60,000 because now I figured it out. Now, I figured out it only goes down. And so, they short it at exactly the wrong time. And so, even though they've blown their portfolio up over and over and over on the way down, trying to use leverage to catch the bottom, they typically will all flip and try to use leverage to keep going down right at the wrong time when the prices are about to go up. And then, of course, they blow their portfolio up all the way up. So, they blow it up all the way down, and then they blow it up all the way up. and when they're all done, they have no money left. That's how that typically works. So, the only thing that didn't happen last night is funding uh rates did not flip negative. Again, this is not my world, so I'm trying to simplify it and use words. Some of these words are probably not the right descriptors, but um funding rates did not flip negative yesterday. Um, now it was after hours, so I don't know. Maybe it would have if the markets were open, but the the big dip last night happened after hours or I think most of it happened after hours anyway. Uh, so I don't know, maybe it did and or couldn't because the markets were closed or whatever. But that's typically the last thing, which means one of two things. Either there will be one more leg down where everybody flips from longs to shorts and blows up their portfolios all the way up. And when they do that, uh, you are benefiting from their liquidated portfolios. Because just the same way you got hurt on the way down by them blowing themselves up all the way down, on the way up, as they short the market, betting it's going to go down, as it goes up, they are forcibly buying Bitcoin to close their position. Because what happens is if you short Bitcoin at $60,000 with 20x leverage, then if the price goes up by 5%, you are forced to buy the Bitcoin to close out your position. So essentially, you can get a huge rally uh as everybody blows up their positions on the way down because the last of their money is being used to buy Bitcoin and close their positions, which doesn't mean they get any of it. So you don't have to worry about any of this because you're not using leverage and you shouldn't, but it's what happens and it's, you know, benefits everybody on the way up um who is not short. So anyway, so I don't think funding rates flipped negative last night, which means one of two things. either they're not going to flip negative 60,000 and one penny was the bottom and some people got lucky. They actually got lucky longing the bottom and they did not flip short and blow up their portfolios. Either that's what happened in which case that was the bottom. You know, welcome to your first Bitcoin bare market if you're new to this and hopefully it's up from here or that wasn't the bottom and there's one more leg lower into the I don't know high 50s. I don't know, something that, you know, gets just enough under $60,000 that everybody's like, I'm done. I'm calling it. I've been long the whole time. Betting it's going to go up. I've been wrong the whole time. I've lost almost all my money. Uh, betting it's going to go long. Again, you're not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm saying if you're using leverage and you keep liquidating your account over and over and over. That's who I'm describing here. So, uh, you know, if it dips into the high 50s, then you know it's maybe we'll get that flip and maybe people will say, "Now I'm going to be short. I'm going to short this thing all the way to zero." At which point, Bitcoin will immediately turn around. Funding rates will flip negative as the people who are short have to pay the people who are long in order to be short. Because with if there's an imbalance, one side's paying the other. So if there's more people that want to go leverage long than leverage shorts, the longs have to pay the shorts for the privilege of doing that is the way the market works. And if the if there are more people that want to be short than long, then the shorts have to play pay the longs. So anyway, if funding rates flip negative, it means there are more people trying to short than there are people trying to long, which is pretty rare. It it typically only happens right after a a huge spike downward. But anyway, so I don't know. I would say there's somewhere between a 60% and a 70% chance that 60,000 and one penny was the bottom. If not, we we tag somewhere bit below it. Uh funding rates flip negative. Everybody who's betting it's going to go up, you know, in the trading markets flips to betting it's going to go down, at which point they all blow up and lose all their money on the way up, which is what usually happens. So again, I don't know. Nobody knows. Michael Ser doesn't know. Lyn Alden doesn't know. James Czech doesn't know. Nobody knows. If any of us knew what the top or bottom was, we would use 100x leverage and make ourselves a gazillion dollars. And nobody knows. What I do know is that now is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is on sale. And if 60,000 and one penny wasn't the bottom, it was probably close. And you know, even at $70,000, Bitcoin is on sale. Look, it's on sale at 60, it's on sale at 70. uh if you take off a zero because I lived through this exact same price uh discovery process in 2018 and 2019 and if you subtract a zero from all of the numbers what you end up with is the big discussion of people saying uh you know the difference of buying it at 60,000 versus 70,000 is the exact same mathematical difference back in 2018 of buying Bitcoin at 6,000 versus 7,000 and I promise you everybody was all tied in knots about whether or not they were buying Bitcoin at 12,000 or 8,000 or 6,000 000 or 7,000 or 9,000 or you know everybody all got tied in knots and in the end it just didn't matter that much. I wish I had bought a ton more Bitcoin at $12,000 even though that was the highest of the range that I uh bought Bitcoin in. You know, the high of the range was probably 12,600 which is exactly onetenth of 126,000. And the lowest I ever bought Bitcoin was 6,400 which is the equivalent of 64,000. And obviously it dipped a little bit below that last night. So I wish I had bought Bitcoin at the top of the range in 2018. At some point in the future, everybody who bought Bitcoin at, you know, 115, 116, 118, 122, 124, you're going to look back at that and you're going to say, "Dang, I wish I had bought a lot more $124,000 Bitcoin." Now you're especially going to wish you had bought a lot more $70,000 Bitcoin. But most people are just going to hang tight, hold on, and try not to blow up uh emotionally. Your portfolio won't blow up if you just hold on to it. If you're just sitting on Bitcoin, nothing bad happens. Um but a lot of people have trouble emotionally holding on to a bare market. And as long as you can hold, at some point, you'll wish you had a lot bought a lot more at all the prices between 60,000 and 126,000. They're all going to look like good prices, which is why I've been recommending people buy Bitcoin at all of the prices all the way through. Let me know if you have questions. I'm here for anything you need. Um hopefully that was the bottom of the bare market. We don't know. Bitcoin is going to be fine regardless. It's it's what's on sale. Today's my birthday, February 6. I'm 46 years old. Go buy yourself a some Bitcoin for yourself as a as a birthday present to me. Have a good one everyone.