Was $81,000 the BOTTOM for Bitcoin?

Was $81,000 the bottom of the dip for Bitcoin? The answer, of course, is nobody knows. Literally, not a soul in the entire planet knows. And if they did, they would go use 40 to one leverage on Bitmax or Binance or something and make a ton of money, 40 times uh the upside. The answer, of course, is nobody knows, but we can make some guesses. Uh a couple things. one, the low last November, the lowest this entire cycle for Bitcoin since the all-time high on October 6. Uh the lowest it's gone is 80,500. So typically, the closer you get to a previous bottom, the more people, including me, step in and say, "Hey, it might not ever touch the previous bottom. And if it doesn't touch the previous bottom, I'm not waiting around to buy more." So I bought $10,000 of additional Bitcoin last night at a price of 82,000. Um because again, it had just touched 81. And I was like, you know, 82 is good is a fantastic price even for borrowed money, which I do not recommend you do unless you have a ton of additional Bitcoin used to make sure you don't get liquidated. And in my case, I do have plenty of additional Bitcoin to make sure that that $10,000 loan is never liquidated. Okay, so that's number one. We don't know, but typically when you get close to uh all-time lows, you do start getting people stepping in and saying, "I'll take some of that cheap Bitcoin." So, there is a chance $81,000 last night was the low and that we only go up from here. I don't know. I nobody knows what the probability of that is. For just round numbers, I'll say let's say there's a one-third chance that we go straight up from here. Uh 33%. Again, I don't know. Maybe it's 50%, maybe it's higher, maybe it's lower, maybe it's less than 33%. Again, nobody, not a soul knows. Okay, so let's assume, let's use round numbers because I'm going to play out three scenarios and I'm just going to use 33% because there's three of them. And if you divide by three, you end up with 33.3%. Okay, so one-third chance it goes straight up from here. Uh one-third chance we bottom somewhere between 70 and 80,000, which again, if I'm buying Bitcoin, I would say, well, I'm not going to wait for that. Like, why would I risk that? Why would I miss miss out on $82,000 Bitcoin waiting for $75,000 Bitcoin? That just doesn't make any sense. Statistically, it always makes more sense to buy now as opposed to waiting for a further dip, especially if you have already dipped. And we have already dip dipped substantially to get to 82,000 or 81,000 last night. And so, it makes absolutely zero economic sense or statistical sense or investment sense to wait for the price to go lower as long as you're spending money you actually have to buy Bitcoin. Now, if you're using borrowed money, there's a lot more risk. And if you're borrowing against a 401k, which I don't recommend, or if you're borrowing against Bitcoin, which I especially do not recommend, or if you're doing an home equity line of credit, which I also do not recommend, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin with borrowed money. But if you're going to do that, and if you're doing it anyway, then you really do need to get very low prices for that to make sense because there's a way more risk in doing that. Um, so James Czech would say at least a one-/ird chance or higher, probably higher. He would say we bought them between 70 and 80,000. And if you read his analysis from this morning, he says, "Look, the problem is if we break below 80,000, there's very little trading activity for Bitcoin between 70,000 and 80,000." Back in November of 2024 after the presidential election, the price of Bitcoin shot into the 70s through the 80s. Um, you know, through the 70s and through the 80s so quickly that there's just very little trading activity. Very few people have bought or sold Bitcoin between 70,000 and 80,000. And in markets, all kinds of markets, it doesn't matter if it's Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, you know, name your favorite biggest, you know, magnificent seven stock. Uh if you have anything that has spent almost zero time trading between certain prices, look, it can be Tesla between the prices of $300 and $400, I don't know, whatever. If you have something that has spent very little time trading between that range, then typically you move very quickly on the way up and the way down if you're in that range. And the answer is because just historically there's not been a lot of buyers or sellers in that range. Which means in this case, if we fall below 80,000, there is not a lot of people who have historically bought or sold Bitcoin between $70,000 and $80,000. That doesn't mean they won't. It doesn't mean people won't step in. It's just they don't have a history of buying and selling Bitcoin between 70 and $80,000 because Bitcoin spent so little time there. It shot through that price level in a day or two or whatever back in the end of 2024 and then when we dipped into the 70,000s back in April of 2025, we were only there like a day. So, Bitcoin spent like almost no time there. And therefore, even if you wanted to buy and sell a lot of Bitcoin between 70 and $80,000, you can't have because Bitcoin spent almost no time there. Just like we spent almost zero time above uh you know, literally two whole minutes above 126,000. Again, if we get above 126,000, it's probably going to go really quick because nobody's bought and sold above 126,000 except for two whole minutes in the entirety of 2025. So anyway, so if we drop below 80, uh James Czech says there's not a lot of support between 70 and 80 because there's just not a lot of historical buying and selling that's happened in there. Meaning you drop below 80, you can you can shoot down into the 70s quick. Uh as in as opposed to grinding around for days or weeks or months, you know, in the 70s it can drop really quick. So, I would say there's uh so let's say one-/ird chance we go up from here, one-/3 chance we bottom between 70 and 80,000 and one-/ird chance it's below 70,000, which again almost certainly puts you somewhere in the 60s. It's not impossible. You could draw Bitcoin could drop lower. It's just historical patterns and everything like that. Say it gets increasingly highly unlikely the closer, you know, the farther you drop down, it's like a rubber band. If somebody's like, "Well, can I stretch it this far? Can I stretch it this far?" Like the harder you stretch the rubber band, the higher probability that the answer is no. You can't stretch it any more than that. Like it's at maximum stretch, which means it can only go the other way. And once it goes the other way, you know, it's not coming back. So, um, let let's let's divide it into round buckets of one-third chance 81,000 last night was the bottom. One-/3 chance we bought somewhere between 70 and 80,000. One-third chance it goes below 70,000. And again, the reason I give you these numbers is because you just it's hard to justify any other numbers. I could give you higher or lower numbers, but if you have to divide something into three buckets where there's a high degree of uncertainty, the easiest thing to do is just to say, well, let's just divide it equally the probabilities into the three buckets and hope for the best. Okay. So, what do you do with that information? One, if you have money you want to buy Bitcoin with, I would buy it right now. I would not wait. Statistically and probability wise, you are always worse off waiting than buying, especially when you when Bitcoin is this much discounted. It doesn't mean it won't go lower, but you're sacrificing a massive amount of upside by not buying now. So, if I had money, I could buy Bitcoin at today's prices. I would if I had, you know, leftover money from a home, you know, I would not take out a home equity line of credit to buy Bitcoin. I would not borrow at today's price uh against. Actually, if I had a 401k that I could borrow against to buy Bitcoin, I probably would buy Bitcoin with a borrowed 401k at these prices, but only because my 401k represents a very small percent of my total net worth. Um, and because again, I can just afford for it to go a lot a lot lower. But if somebody is asking me, you know, if somebody came to me and said, Joel, even though you do not recommend people buy Bitcoin with borrowed money ever, I'm going to do it anyway. You have to tell me when, but I'm going to do it anyway. Well, first of all, I said I would say, I'm not going to tell you when because then I'm responsible, and I don't want to be responsible for your borrowed money. But, um, but if somebody said, "Well, hey, I'm going to do it anyway." I would say, "Well, I'd probably wait for a number that starts with a seven." If you're going to borrow against a 401k or if you're going to use, you know, leftover money from a home equity line of credit or something like that, again, you want the absolute cheapest part possible price. And in that situation, because you're using borrowed money, you have to be comfortable that you're just never going to buy Bitcoin with that borrowed money. So, let's assume somebody says, "Okay, I want to buy Bitcoin with, you know, money borrowed against a 401k." And um and I would say, okay, well, I would wait for a number that starts with a seven before I did that, not a number that starts with an eight. Um and you have to have a high risk tolerance and be able to make the payments. And even though you're paying interest basically back to yourself, you want to be absolutely positively sure you're not going to lose your job and not be able to make the payments and all that sort of stuff. Um but in in that situation, again, you want the the lowest possible price. And there was a point I was going to make related to that that I have now forgotten uh that I'll circle back to, but anyway. Um, and if you're going to borrow against your Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin, which is what I did last night, only do that. Uh, I do not recommend doing that period. But if somebody is going to do that, you have to have a lot of extra Bitcoin to keep from getting liquidated. And part of the reason I did that at 82,000 is because I can afford to do it more than once. So, you know, if the price hits 77, I'll probably do it again. The high price hits 73, I'll probably do it again. You know, $10,000 increments. Um, small percentage of my total. I got plenty more Bitcoin to to keep those loans healthy and make sure I don't get liquidated and not something I recommended. If somebody said, "Okay, but I want to borrow against a 401k to buy Bitcoin." And you know, I'm going to do it at, you know, and I say, "Well, don't do it with a number that starts with eight." You know, you got to wait for super super super cheap Bitcoin instead of just super super cheap Bitcoin. If that was the case, they're they're like, "Okay, I'm gonna I'm going to do it at 75,000 or 77 or 73 or pick a number in the 70s." And what happens if that never comes? Well, you have to be comfortable saying, "Well, then it was not responsible to buy Bitcoin with borrowed money if that number never came because you just have to be okay with that." Um, now I am not okay with that with money that I could invest in Bitcoin that is my money because I don't have to be okay with it because I'm not taking risk when I'm investing my money. I'm not that is not borrowed or at least I'm not taking the same sort of risk. So if it's my money, I'm not willing to miss up miss out on the upside at all. Meaning 82,000 give me give me that Bitcoin. I will buy that Bitcoin at 82,000. Heck, I owe I own Bitcoin I bought at 122. I own Bitcoin I bought at 124. I would not undo any of those transactions. Like in the long run, those will be fantastic buys. It's just time. It's like I'm not sad for any of the Bitcoin I bought at 9,000. Even though if I had waited, I could have bought it for 6,000. Who the heck cares? Like $6,000, $9,000 Bitcoin. It all sounds pretty fantastic right now. And I'm glad I did it. Even though every Bitcoin I bought, I could have bought more of if I had waited. But it's a fool's errand because you don't know how long to wait. And nobody knows. So, uh, but again, you have to be comfortable if you're doing something like that that the bottom will never come, that you will never get that Bitcoin with a 401k or whatever. And you got to be fine with that because you're taking way more risk on when you're using borrowed money and therefore it's you either need to buy it at bargain basement prices or not at all. And that is not the case if you're buying money Bitcoin with money that you already own because you know you're not going to have a a payment you have to make with that exact same money related to the borrowing. Um so anyway, and obviously all investments have risk and this is not investment tax, legal or financial advice. This is just me musing uh you know what I think is smart or dumb based on what I'm doing myself. So anyway, so could the price go lower? Sure. James Czech says, you know, if we drop below 80, we drop into the 70s really quick. Um but again, we don't know because James Czech also said 126. You know, all the indicators indicated 126 was not the top. Well, guess what? It kind of looks like a top now. So So nobody really knows. James Czech is the best weatherman in a world of weathermen that cannot predict the weather. They can't predict the weather. They can just tell you if the weather does certain things why it did them. So, for example, you know, in central Mississippi, there was a high probability of two inches of snow last week. Well, the two inches of snow never came. We got some ice, we got some sleet, you know, whatever, but we never got two inches of snow. We never got any meaningful snow. Um, so the weather people were wrong. We were supposed to have snow. but we didn't have snow. So again, if you're using borrowed money, you got to say, okay, I'm only going to buy the Bitcoin when there's snow. But you got to be comfortable with the fact that, hey, if it doesn't snow, you just don't buy that Bitcoin because it would have been irresponsible to do that with borrowed money. Uh, but also if it does snow and the price goes lower, it is helpful for somebody like James Czech to say, look, let me tell you why it's happening. In the case of the snow, they're like, look, there's a major cold front. There's a massive winter storm coming through. It should dip low enough to catch central Mississippi. Uh, but it might not, but it probably will. Well, it didn't. But you got to be comfortable with the fact that weathermen can't predict the weather. They can just tell you probabilities. And if something happens, at least you know why it happened. It's not like suddenly there's snow on the ground and you don't know how it got there. So, it's the same thing with Bitcoin. James Czech is like, look, if we don't hold 80,000, you know, there's not a lot of support in the 70s. We're going to, you know, drop pretty quick. If that happens, you'll know why it's happening. If it doesn't happen, well, great. Good for you. Unless you're planning on buying more Bitcoin with, you know, borrowed money in the 70s. Anyway, but um anyway, let me know if you have questions. Bitcoin will be just fine. Bitcoin will go on to set new all-time highs. I think the probability of that Bitcoin sets new all-time highs in the next uh 12 months or before the end of 2026 is high. I think there's better than 2 to1 odds there is a new all-time high this year. But again, like everybody who's ever attempted to predict anything, I am often wrong. Not in the long term, but in the short term because in the short term, nobody knows what's going to happen. In the long term, Bitcoin, I believe, will outperform every other conceivable asset. Uh, including gold and silver, which are, you know, doing crazy things the last few days. Uh, let me know if you have questions. Happy to address any specific circumstances of, you know, what would I do in this situation? What would I do in that situation? Uh, let me know. I'm here to serve. Thanks.