What will happen at $120K per bitcoin? $150K per bitcoin? $220K per bitcoin in the next 12 months?

00:01 Hey everyone, my favorite Bitcoin 00:03 analyst is James Check who goes by 00:06 Checkmate on Twitter and I just posted a 00:09 few minutes ago I posted a link to his 00:11 latest analysis where he talks about 00:14 what's likely to happen at various 00:15 Bitcoin price levels and because that is 00:18 behind a payw wall I figured I would 00:20 give you a sort of quick verbal summary 00:21 of some of what he's talking about. Um, 00:25 okay. So, the first thing to note is 00:27 that, um, you know, we're very close to 00:29 a Bitcoin all-time high. Bitcoin is 00:31 $104,000 per coin. Right now, the 00:33 all-time high is 109. So, we're within 00:35 5% of the highest Bitcoin has ever been. 00:39 Um, his expectation, as is mine, is at 00:42 some point we will blow through the 00:44 all-time high, pass 110. And usually 00:47 when you hit a halt all-time high, there 00:49 are some people that sell Bitcoin 00:51 because it's the highest it's ever been. 00:53 They bought it right near the top. They 00:55 didn't know what they were doing. They 00:56 got caught up in the fear of missing out 00:59 FOMO and they bought Bitcoin at 108 or 01:02 109,000 and here's their chance to get 01:04 off the train at the price they paid. So 01:07 some people will do that, but typically 01:08 there's enough momentum uh to blow past 01:11 that. According to James Czech, uh once 01:13 we get to about $120,000 per Bitcoin, 01:16 you start to get a pretty significant uh 01:19 amount of the uh holders of Bitcoin in a 01:22 pretty significant profit. Now, 01:24 obviously, when you hit 120,000 for f 01:26 for the first time, 100% of Bitcoin 01:29 holders are in a profit because every 01:31 all-time high above 109,000 means that 01:34 nobody in the entire history of Bitcoin 01:35 has ever bought Bitcoin for less than 01:37 that. that which means literally 100% of 01:40 people who own Bitcoin are in profit. 01:42 But people don't tend to buy things with 01:45 their Bitcoin that result in a 01:47 significant liquidation of Bitcoin until 01:49 they are in more profit uh than that. 01:53 They tend to be in a little bit uh you 01:54 know have to be in 01:56 slightly sorry flies and other things 02:00 that bother you. um you tend to have to 02:03 be in more profit than just a little 02:05 profit for the average person to really 02:07 start wanting to, you know, go buy 02:09 something nice or put an addition on 02:11 their house or buy a new car or anything 02:13 like that. So once you get to $120,000 02:15 per coin, by his analysis, quite a 02:17 significant number of the Bitcoin 02:19 holders will be in profit, enough profit 02:22 that it's the kind of profit that they 02:24 start thinking what they want to do with 02:26 their Bitcoin. So you start getting some 02:28 more serious sell pressure by people who 02:30 say, "Hey, you know, I held a Bitcoin 02:32 for a long time. Maybe bought it at 02:34 40,000. You know, here we are at 02:36 120,000. I've tripled my money and you 02:39 know, maybe it's time to buy something 02:41 nice." Now, that's obviously a very 02:43 healthy process because it's the way 02:45 everybody else in the world gets Bitcoin 02:46 since perhaps maybe 5% of the world owns 02:49 any Bitcoin at all and the vast majority 02:51 of those own very small amounts of 02:53 Bitcoin. It's a good thing when people 02:55 who have hold held Bitcoin for a long 02:57 time decide they want to buy stuff 02:59 because otherwise how would the rest of 03:01 the world that doesn't own any Bitcoin 03:02 end up with Bitcoin at some point? You 03:04 got to have someone who wants who is 03:06 holding Bitcoin want to improve the 03:09 lives of themselves or their family in 03:11 some way. Uh which results in them 03:13 selling some Bitcoin. And who do they 03:14 sell it to? They sell it to some of the 03:17 95% of the world that owns zero Bitcoin. 03:19 And that's how those people get Bitcoin 03:22 in the first place. Okay. All right. So, 03:23 what happens at 150,000? So, based on 03:25 all of the, you know, most recent 03:28 analysis of Bitcoin, according to James 03:31 Czech, Bitcoin has spent less than 5% of 03:35 its total lifespan above a number that 03:38 in this case is about 105,000. Now, he 03:40 analyzes the price at which every single 03:43 uh the you know, the first time any 03:45 Bitcoin was bought by anybody and uh 03:48 averages that across the entire cohort 03:50 of everyone that owns Bitcoin. Now, he 03:52 obviously doesn't know who owns what 03:53 Bitcoin, but on the Bitcoin blockchain, 03:56 you can see the price at which every 03:58 Bitcoin transacted most recently. So, 04:00 you can get a sense for the price at 04:02 which people are buying and selling 04:04 Bitcoin. And with the Bitcoin exchange 04:06 traded funds, the ETFs, you can also get 04:09 a sense at what price people are buying 04:10 and selling Bitcoin based on how much 04:12 new Bitcoin is being acquired or sold 04:14 off on any given day of stock market 04:17 trading for the Bitcoin ETFs. So, as a 04:19 result of that, according to him, at 04:20 $150,000 per Bitcoin, you start getting 04:25 what he calls overheated enough that you 04:27 start running into pretty significant 04:28 sell pressure. As in, there's just a lot 04:30 of people in a lot of profit. All the 04:33 people who bought Bitcoin last year, 04:35 even last year, 2024, uh we spent, you 04:38 know, 7 and a half months with Bitcoin 04:40 between 55,000 and 70,000 a coin. So up 04:44 at $150,000 per coin, you're looking at 04:47 all of those people are in double or 04:49 triple their money in Bitcoin. And 04:51 humans have this just incredible desire 04:54 to part with things once their gains 04:57 hits a certain level. Now, the smart 04:59 thing obviously is to hold Bitcoin as 05:00 long as you conceivably can for as long 05:02 as possible, but that's just not human 05:04 behavior. uh actual human behavior is 05:07 the longer humans hold something uh the 05:10 the greater the gain on that thing the 05:12 more they are likely to want to alter 05:14 their lifestyle. Um, and that's the 05:17 behavior of everybody, rich people, poor 05:18 people, you know, uh, middle class. If 05:22 you give them money and they triple it, 05:24 at some point they're going to decide 05:26 rather than sitting on tripled money 05:27 that they want something to improve 05:29 their life or the life of their family 05:32 and they will act upon that and that is 05:33 how they will end up selling some of 05:35 their Bitcoin. So that will, you know, 05:37 happen most aggressively at $150,000 per 05:40 coin. Now uh James Czech also analyzes 05:44 what is the highest that he believes we 05:46 are likely to go this cycle if you are a 05:48 super ultra optimistic super you know 05:51 hyperbull and he puts that number at 05:54 $220,000 per bitcoin. So again we're at 05:56 104 now. So, he's saying, "Look, at 05:59 $220,000 per Bitcoin, it is almost 06:03 irresistible that just way too many 06:05 people are in way too big a profit that 06:08 human nature just cannot cannot cannot 06:12 stay in that much profit without selling 06:13 Bitcoin. I just you just you know any 06:17 human on the planet if you walk in and 06:19 they you know 2x 3x 5x 10x their money 06:23 or some of the early holders of Bitcoin 06:24 it's way more than that they are going 06:26 to sell some Bitcoin they just 06:28 absolutely are. So he says in this cycle 06:30 which people typically talk about cycles 06:32 in four-year cycles in Bitcoin because 06:34 that is what sort of correlates with the 06:37 Bitcoin having cycle which is um you 06:39 know the the rate at which Bitcoin 06:41 issuance drops in half every four years 06:43 which is why there will only ever be 21 06:44 million Bitcoin because at some point 06:46 that having cycle results in it dropping 06:49 uh the new issuance of Bitcoin to zero 06:51 and then there is no more new newly 06:53 issued Bitcoin uh every 10 minutes. it 06:55 just stops at 21 million and then the 06:58 Bitcoin miners run on transaction fees 07:00 after that. Rather than a combination of 07:02 transaction fees and issuance of new 07:04 Bitcoin, they run exclusively on 07:05 transaction fees. Right now, it's 07:07 partially transaction fees. It's 07:08 partially newly issued Bitcoin. And 07:10 right now, Bitcoin miners get 3.125 07:13 Bitcoin every 10 minutes. So 07:16 3.125 used to be 50, then it was 25, 07:18 then it was 12 and a half, then it was 07:21 6.25, then now it is 3.125. Again, it's 07:24 every four years. Bitcoin is 16 years 07:26 old. So, that having has happened, 07:28 whatever it is, three or four times, and 07:30 we're now at 3.125, and it will drop to 07:32 half of that, 3.125 in 2028. Uh, but 07:36 anyway, so Bitcoin's price cycles tend 07:38 to follow that. All right. So, what 07:40 happens when we hit hit the peak of this 07:43 price cycle, which could be, you know, 07:46 150,000, it could be 168,000. I think he 07:49 puts a range. I forget the I should have 07:51 looked it up. the the range was 07:52 something like he said between whatever 07:54 it was 150 and 168 or 162 or whatever it 07:58 was. Uh you can go look at the link I 08:00 posted. He said, you know, there's just 08:02 so many people in profit that you just 08:03 start to get a lot of sell pressure and 08:06 at some point you get a pullback. And 08:08 the pullback is an opportunity for the 08:10 rest of the world to catch up in their 08:11 own Bitcoin acquisition, for the total 08:14 base of people who own Bitcoin to expand 08:16 um and for the supply to catch up with 08:19 the or sorry, the demand to catch up 08:20 with the price, which then creates an 08:23 opportunity for the price to go much 08:24 higher than that in the long term. But 08:26 in the short term, it's just got to 08:28 catch up because the price just gets a 08:30 little bit ahead of the demand. Uh, you 08:33 know, the sustainable demand. It's 08:34 obviously never ahead of the actual 08:36 demand because demand drives price. Um, 08:38 but it gets ahead of the sustainable 08:40 demand. There's just not enough uh 08:42 people that are uh adopters in a 08:45 significant long-term way to hold the 08:47 price at say 150 or 168 or 220,000 or 08:51 whatever it is. So, at that point, you 08:53 typically get a pullback. Nobody knows 08:55 what percent pullback that will be. 08:57 Let's run some numbers off of 150,000 uh 09:00 for example. So, at 150,000, a 20% 09:03 pullback uh pulls the price back to uh 09:07 120,000. So, that's uh $30,000. So, 150 09:10 drops to 120. That would be a 20% 09:12 pullback. a 50% pullback, which would be 09:15 well, let me do a 33% pullback. Um, 09:18 which is the highest it's been in the 09:20 last year or two that I recall, was a 09:23 33% pullback. Uh, that would drop the 09:25 price from 150 uh down to 100,000, which 09:28 is just under where it is right now. And 09:30 again, it's not like it would stay 09:31 there. It's just that's the lowest it 09:33 would touch before ultimately starting 09:35 the march back up again. Um, and then 09:38 obviously you could end up with 09:39 something, you know, much more radical 09:41 like a 50% pullback, which could 09:43 temporarily, very temporarily, drop 09:46 $150,000 Bitcoin down to $75,000 09:49 Bitcoin. Now, you may be thinking, "But 09:51 wait, why would I not just wait for that 09:54 pullback and potentially buy Bitcoin for 09:57 less than $104,000 per coin?" And the 09:60 answer is because nobody, not me, not 10:02 you, not Michael Sailor, nobody knows 10:05 when the next Bitcoin pullback will be 10:07 or what percent it will be. So if we 10:10 plow up to 150,000 and we end up with a 10:13 pullback of uh 20% down to uh down to 10:19 13, sorry, 120,000, then you never get a 10:22 chance to buy it cheaper than today's 10:23 price and then you get left behind and 10:26 tough luck. Uh, so that's a very high 10:28 risk on an asset that has a high 10:30 likelihood of going up 1,000% in the 10:33 future. Trying to get a 10 or 20 or 30% 10:36 discount on Bitcoin and risking a,000% 10:40 future upside is just a totally sort of 10:43 a bet that makes no sense. Um, also, you 10:47 know, if we get to $150,000 per Bitcoin 10:50 and then there's a 30% price correction, 10:52 a 30% price correction as opposed to a 10:54 33% price correction, I believe, puts us 10:57 a price above 104,000. I don't know what 11:00 exactly 30% off of I should be able to 11:03 run that math in my head. Whatever that 11:05 is. Um, but it ends up I think with a 11:07 price that's slightly higher than the 11:09 price it is right now. Um, so, uh, for 11:13 all of those reasons, uh, it generally 11:15 makes sense to buy Bitcoin and hold it 11:17 as long as possible. Now, I will do a 11:19 separate video about the difference 11:20 between buying Bitcoin lump sum and 11:23 buying Bitcoin dollar cost averaging. 11:26 And, uh, but I'll save that for a 11:27 separate video. Um, but what typically 11:29 happens in a Bitcoin price draw down is 11:32 for some series of months or the longest 11:33 it typically is, like back in 2022, is 11:36 about a year. And that was because a 11:38 bunch of stuff blew up all at the same 11:39 time. So, uh, you know, the Bitcoin 11:42 price, everybody kept predicting that it 11:43 had finally bottomed and then some new 11:45 stupid, you know, bad business practices 11:48 from Sam Bankman Freed with FTX or 11:50 whatever it was would then extend things 11:53 a couple more months because it was just 11:55 the insanity of stupid business 11:57 practices just didn't seem to stop in 11:59 2022. But it always eventually does. 12:01 Always eventually it's back to normal 12:03 and the bad actors have been washed out 12:06 and it marches higher. So, we don't know 12:09 once Bitcoin hits 150,000 or 168,000 or 12:13 220,000. Nobody knows what percent price 12:16 correction we could go through. If we 12:18 did, we could all make decisions exactly 12:20 when should we should buy Bitcoin, when 12:21 we shouldn't, and how much and all that. 12:23 And obviously, that information does not 12:25 exist because it is impossible to time 12:27 the market. So all we know is that 12:29 according to James Czech, the price is 12:31 likely to be significantly higher in the 12:32 future than it is now. Uh even in the 12:35 short term and that that uh Bitcoin will 12:37 have a harder time flexing its muscles 12:40 and growing un 12:42 uninterrupted starting when it hits 12:44 about 120,000 and certainly when it hits 12:48 150,000. And at some point along the way 12:50 it will need to take a little breather 12:52 and then it will start to march higher 12:54 again toward 500,000. and you know, then 12:56 it'll probably take a breather at some 12:58 point along that way uh in a significant 13:00 way before a million dollar. So, most 13:02 people in Bitcoin are are saying we're 13:05 probably looking at two significant 13:06 price pullbacks um before we get to $1 13:10 million per Bitcoin. One sometime in the 13:13 I don't know next 18 months and one 13:16 probably uh about four years after that 13:18 just because the Bitcoin 4-year price 13:20 cycles uh tend to tend to uh happen that 13:22 way. So maybe we'll get uh you know in 13:25 the next 7 years we get to a million 13:27 dollars per Bitcoin. Maybe it'll take 13:28 10. Nobody knows. Um it's just a 100% a 13:32 function of how fast the world can 13:34 figure out that Bitcoin is better money. 13:36 But that does not change my 13:37 recommendations which is buy as much 13:39 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as 13:41 long as conceivably possible. And that's 13:43 just that's the formula. That's always 13:45 the formula. That's never changed. That 13:48 will continue to be the formula. And as 13:50 we get higher into some of these price 13:51 levels I've talked about, I will start 13:53 recommending people dollar cost average 13:56 instead of uh lumpsum purchase. So it is 13:59 not too late to lump sum purchase 14:01 Bitcoin in my opinion um for however 14:03 much you want to put in. And then, you 14:06 know, as the price gets higher and 14:07 higher at some point, I would say, well, 14:09 look, you might be looking at a 30 to 14:11 50% price pullback at some point, uh, or 14:14 20 to 30%, whatever it is. Pick a 14:16 number. But, um, you since you probably 14:19 don't want to buy at the the top and 14:21 then have to wait, you know, a series of 14:23 months or whatever, or even a year or 14:25 two until you're back at that price, um, 14:27 I will recommend dollar cost averaging 14:29 because that's a great way, uh, if you 14:30 think a price correction is coming up. 14:32 Uh that's a great way to uh invest in a 14:35 lower risk way. Although it typically 14:37 does um you know you the the the upside 14:41 tend to tends to be lower doing that but 14:43 it tends to be easier on people's 14:44 psychology uh as opposed to dumping a 14:47 bunch of money in what they in what they 14:49 perceive to be super expensive Bitcoin 14:51 and then it goes through a series of 14:52 months where the price is lower and they 14:54 feel bad. And so you can avoid that with 14:56 dollar cost averaging and I'll do a 14:58 video shortly about that specifically. 15:00 Uh so to summarize here, uh Bitcoin's at 15:03 104,000. The all-time high is 109. Once 15:07 we hit 110, you'll start seeing people 15:09 bail who bought at 108 or 109. 15:13 Typically, there's plenty of momentum to 15:15 blow past that. And then once we get to 15:17 120,000, you'll start hitting more 15:19 momentum as a lot of people start 15:21 feeling rich and start selling some 15:23 Bitcoin to make their lives better in 15:25 some way or another. And certainly by 15:27 the time we get to 150, somewhere 15:29 between 150 and $168,000 per Bitcoin, 15:32 you will get a lot of that. Doesn't mean 15:34 it can't go higher. It just means there 15:36 will be a lot of people sitting on very 15:38 large unrealized profit. Unrealized 15:41 profit meaning they're in profit, but 15:43 they haven't realized that profit 15:44 because they haven't sold the Bitcoin. 15:46 And that doesn't mean they'll sell all 15:47 the Bitcoin. It just means they'll sell 15:49 some of it uh to improve their life in 15:51 some way. Um, and you know, a tiny 15:55 microcosm of that is I've been talking 15:57 on a couple of these videos about buying 15:59 a generator, a whole house generator, so 16:01 that I don't sit in the dark when my 16:03 power is constantly out when I am in the 16:06 state of Mississippi. I don't know why 16:07 it goes out so much, but it goes out. It 16:09 tends uh Energy, who is the power 16:11 provider in central Mississippi, seems 16:13 to have a hard time keeping the power 16:14 on. Uh, when there's a storm, it almost 16:17 always knocks the power out. I mean, 16:19 literally, the power just goes out a 16:21 lot. like a ridiculously lot. Um, way 16:25 more than you would think in a first 16:26 world country that the power would go 16:28 out. But that whole house generator, I 16:30 don't want to spend a huge amount of 16:32 money on that generator, not at Bitcoin 16:34 at 105 or $104,000 per coin. So, I was 16:38 at church this morning and talking to 16:40 somebody and they were commenting how 16:42 much the power had been out and I said, 16:44 "Yep, I feel the same way. My power is 16:46 out constantly." And I told them the you 16:48 know a whole house generator uh for our 16:51 house costs about oneif of a bitcoin. 16:54 They laughed and said of course you 16:55 would think in terms of bitcoin instead 16:57 of US dollars but uh to simplify that it 16:60 uh uh a whole house generator is about 17:02 $20,000 that runs on natural gas and 17:05 basically it you know powers your house 17:07 forever uh in the event that your power 17:09 supply company cannot keep the lights 17:11 on. Um so a whole house generator in my 17:13 case is about $20,000. said that's about 17:15 1/5if of a Bitcoin. Um, and and I told 17:18 the person before I thought about doing 17:19 this video, before I had refreshed my my 17:22 brain on the latest James Czech analyst 17:25 research, I I told them I was like, 17:26 "Yeah, I'm just not willing to spend 17:28 1/5if of a Bitcoin on a generator for my 17:30 house. Now, I am willing to spend 16th 17:33 of a gener or 16th of a Bitcoin for a 17:36 whole house generator, but not oneif of 17:37 a Bitcoin." Well, later on as I was 17:39 thinking about it, I was like, that's 17:41 interesting because one sixth of of 17:43 $20,000 or uh $20,000 is one6th of 17:47 $120,000. So, yes, that when Bitcoin is 17:50 $120,000, suddenly it feels like I can 17:52 afford a whole house generator because 17:55 $20,000 is one sixth of that. But at 17:57 $100,000 Bitcoin or even at $104 or 18:00 $105,000 Bitcoin, it doesn't feel like I 18:03 can quite afford a whole house generator 18:06 at 1/5 of Bitcoin. So that's the 18:08 difference between 1/5 of a Bitcoin and 18:10 1/6th of a Bitcoin is just I feel like I 18:13 can afford 1/6th of a Bitcoin but not 18:15 1/5if of a Bitcoin. So that's the 18:17 difference of the psychology at Bitcoin 18:20 104,000 versus 120,000. At 120,000 a 18:23 coin, someone like me says, "Hey, I 18:26 actually would really like a whole house 18:27 generator. Uh we've needed one for a 18:29 long time. it hasn't been worth less 18:31 than uh you know it hasn't been worth it 18:34 to liquidate more than one sixth of a 18:37 bitcoin but at 1/6th of a bitcoin it 18:39 kind of makes sense now if the power 18:41 keeps going out even more in the next 18:42 day or two or week or two maybe I'll 18:44 bite the bullet and do it anyway but so 18:46 far I'm like I'm not willing to part 18:48 with one fifth of a bitcoin I am willing 18:50 to part with one sixth of a bitcoin so 18:51 that's the s sort of psychology that 18:53 kicks in when bitcoin's at 120,000 a 18:55 coin is people like me are buying a 18:57 whole house generator at 120 that I 18:60 wouldn't wouldn't have bought at 104 or 19:01 $105,000 per Bitcoin. And that's why it 19:04 just gets harder for Bitcoin to rise. 19:06 Now, I'm never going to stop buying 19:07 Bitcoin. I'm going to be buying Bitcoin 19:08 all the way up. I'm going to be buying 19:09 Bitcoin at the top because I buy Bitcoin 19:11 every two weeks when my paycheck hits. 19:13 Um, but more people are going to not 19:16 think that way the higher the price 19:17 gets. So, even though I'll always be 19:19 buying Bitcoin, I will also be making 19:21 decisions like a whole house generator 19:23 um to make my life of my me and my 19:25 family better so we're not sitting in 19:27 the heat and the humidity every time the 19:29 power goes out, which seems like it's a 19:30 lot. So, hopefully all that helps. Uh 19:32 the uh post I posted from James Czech, 19:35 who goes by Checkmate on Substack, that 19:38 is uh I love his analysis. if you have a 19:40 lot of money in Bitcoin, um, and you 19:42 like, you know, keeping up with what is 19:45 likely to happen and why is it likely to 19:46 happen and all that, uh, his service 19:49 costs $29 a month. I obviously do not 19:51 get anything. I only recommend things 19:53 that are for free. I, you know, there I 19:56 never get anything for any of my Bitcoin 19:57 advocacy, but his uh, his stuff is 19:59 really worth 29 bucks a month if you 20:01 have a lot in Bitcoin. uh if you have 20:03 enough in Bitcoin that you really feel 20:04 like you got a lot in Bitcoin and that 20:06 it's worth $29 a month to have a real 20:09 world feedback step by step of exactly 20:11 what's happening with the price and 20:13 supply and demand in the market. His 20:14 analysis is stands by far better than 20:17 anyone else's by a mile. And for me, 20:20 it's very much worth $29 a month uh to 20:23 get that analysis, which again just 20:25 helps me understand what's going on, 20:26 even if it's not going to change my 20:28 buying behavior because I'm 100% 20:30 Bitcoin. So, it's not like I've I'm not 20:31 going to sell it for any, you know, 20:33 unless I'm buying a generator or 20:34 something that improves the life of my 20:36 family. And I can't buy more Bitcoin 20:38 other than every 2 weeks with my 20:39 paycheck cuz I'm 100% Bitcoin. I 20:41 literally have nothing to buy Bitcoin 20:43 with. Um, but it's still helpful and 20:44 it's sort of comforting to see his 20:46 analysis and it gives you a good insight 20:48 into what exactly is going on. So, 20:50 hopefully all this helps. Excellent.