Who is SELLING?!? When will they STOP?!?

Who is selling? Why are they selling? And when will they stop? With the Bitcoin at $89,000 per coin, you're probably thinking the price down here this low means someone's selling. Which of course is true. Anytime the price is any price, especially when you have between 50 billion and 100 billion dollars of trading volume on any given day, there's just as many sellers as buyers. So, who is sorry, let me say that again. There are just as many sellers as buyers. So, who is selling down here? Well, first of all, let's walk through the criteria of who is not selling down here. The people who are not selling are people that are high conviction, long-term focus, and do not have emergency financial needs. So, high conviction, long-term focus, no emergency financial needs. Um, so those people are the reason. And because there are more of more of those uh people, those are the reasons Bitcoin bottoms at certain prices and never goes lower. And I'll walk through in a minute uh who those people are. Which means the people who are selling are people who are low conviction or they are not long-term focused or they have a big financial need that does not allow them to be high conviction long-term focused. So let's talk to through each of those. Okay. So, first of all, if you go back and look at the history of Bitcoin, you can tell when the only people left in Bitcoin are high conviction, long-term focus with no emergency financial needs. And the reason you can tell is because those are the people those are the only people still holding and buying Bitcoin at the point at which Bitcoin's price bottoms. So, if you look at Bitcoin in 2011, the price ran up to $32 from zero. Actually, it stayed around 5 cents for a little while. And after it was at 5 cents for a little while, ran up to $32, crashed to $2. Between that $2 and $32, there was a lot of people in there that had bought because it was going up. They were not long-term focused. They were not high conviction. And they didn't have emergency financial needs. And so they were all excited about number go up up up. Maybe it'll go to $32. Maybe it'll go to infinity. They didn't know, but they were buying. Well, as soon as the price started correcting, more and more of those people started fleeing. They freaked out. They sold. They got off the ship, they climbed off the train, whatever analogy you want to use. And so the price started dropping. And as it dropped, more and more and more of those people got off the train until the price was at $2. See, at $2, so many people when it was at 5, there was high conviction long-term holders without emergency financial needs. When it went to $32, it pulled in a lot of new people. And a lot of those new people over the course of that run became high conviction, long-term focused without emergency financial needs. And so when the price dropped, rather than the price dropping to 5 cents where it was before, the price dropped down only to $2 because you had all these high conviction, longtime preference, no emergency needs people, uh, which I'm going to call true believers. Although true believers doesn't capture it cuz you can be a true believer and still have to sell your Bitcoin due to emergency financial needs or something like that. So, I'm not sure how best to characterize those. Uh uh I don't know, the few, the proud, the faithful, the the remnant. [laughter] I don't know, whatever we're going to call those people. Um you know, ride or die. Maybe we'll call those people ride or die. So, the only people left are ride or die at $2. Okay. Then the price ran up to 1,200. from $2. It ran from $2 to $1,200 and crashed to $92. Now, between $2 and $1,200, the marketplace picked up a huge number of, you know, low conviction, short-term focused people who are eventually going to have short-term financial needs, but they thought, "Hey, even if I need the money in 3 months, I might as well experience this incredible upside until I actually need this, you know, whatever a month or two or three from now." So, when the price hit $1,200, it ran out of those new people to push the price higher and the price crashed all the way to $92. Now, the question is, why did it crash to $92 and not $2? Because before that price run, before it went from $2 to 1,200, I mean, it it only was, you know, holding at $2. So, why did it stop at $92? Well, because there was 46 times as many people that were ride or die. I People are commenting ride or die. I like it. Okay, so between uh between $2 and $1,200, it picked up 46 times as many ride or die people. So the price couldn't go back down to $2. It bottomed at 90 $92, which was 46 times as high. It picked up 46 times as many of those people. Then the price went from $92 up to what did it go from there? I guess it went from 92 up to $19,000 in 2017. Crashed to $3,200. And again, why was it 3,200 instead of 92? Because it picked up a ton of new ride or die people in that process. And then the price went from 3,200 up to well, right now it went up from uh oh no, that 3,200 went up to 69,000 in 2021. 69,000 and then dropped 15,500. But again, 15,500 is way higher than 3,200 because it picked up a bunch of ride or die people. And it can't go lower than the ride or die because the ride or die will literally spend their last penny buying Bitcoin at those cheap prices, which is what I was doing in 2022 and what a bunch of other people were doing in 2022, which is why the price never went below 15,500. So now we've gone up to 1,00 sorry, 126,000, which is just a ridiculously large number compared to any of those. One second. So we go up to 126,000 and now we come back down. So clearly in retrospect 126,000 represented some ride-or- die people, but also some people that were low conviction, short-term focused and had near-term for emergency financial needs. Now, how many of those people were in that cohort? We don't know. If the price had crashed to $125,000 by only $1,000 and then gone up to $200,000, we would have said, "Wow, turns out there was relatively few of those people in." Well, down here at $89,000, it's clear that we had more than we thought. Um, now, how how low could the price go? Well, we don't know because we don't know how many of the current Bitcoin holders at $89,000 are ride or die, and we don't know how many of those are short-term focused, high financial needs, low conviction. We just don't know. Um, the best person in the world to predict, you know, to predict what that might be is James Czech. So, James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, goes by Checkmate. Uh, he has the Czech onchain newsletter. I post links to his stuff regularly. Uh, he has a better idea than literally anybody else on the on the in the world because he's tracking the price at which every Bitcoin last moved on the Bitcoin blockchain. So, you can tell when people bought Bitcoin. You don't know who it was. if you don't know any of the circumstances, but you can tell when they bought, what price they're holding at. I mean, you can tell a lot of variables about the marketplace. So, he he's done run all the math and said, "Look, you know, if if you look at all of the statistical probabilities based on past Bitcoin price cycles and all that sort of stuff, you know, you could bottom here, but you could also bottom somewhere between 75 and $85,000." Now, $85,000 is only $4,000 away. So in on the good side of that, he's saying look, the higher end of that is we might only drop another 4%. You know, that might be the the deepest this Bitcoin bare market goes is another 4%. That's a possibility. Maybe it goes to 8,000, which is another roughly 9%. I know the math is not exactly that. It's more like 10 or 11%, whatever, but it's not that much below where we are. So we could go down to 75, 80, 85. that pretty much all the numbers James Czech has ever talked about do not involve Bitcoin going below 74,000. I mean, that's just his view is it's like, you know, we're we're a we just are going to bottom out somewhere that's above that in his opinion. Of course, nobody knows. Now, if you could go interview every single person who holds holds Bitcoin right now, you could figure out how low the price is going to go because you would figure out what are the financial needs of all the Bitcoin holders. How many of them have tuition payments coming up in the next 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, how many of them have credit cards that are going to need to pay paid off, how many of them have down payments on houses that are going to need to be made. If you could figure out in advance everybody's financial needs, then you could figure out how many people are going to have to dump their Bitcoin over the next day, week, month, whatever. Um, and you could figure out what percent of all the Bitcoin holders were ride or die because the ride or dyers are not giving up their Bitcoin no matter what, they'll find a way. Um, so or if they are ride or die, but they still, you know, have an emergency and a kid breaks a leg and they don't have insurance or something like that, you know, they're stuck selling Bitcoin regardless. They just don't have a choice. Um, okay. So, so the ride or die Bitcoiners are the people who are not selling. They're not selling because they are high conviction, long time frame, and they do not have any near-term emergency financial needs. And so, you know, they'll be fine. All right. So, who are the short-term holders that are selling right now? The short-term holders are the people that are the opposite of that. They are, you know, low conviction, short-term focused, and they have emergency financial needs. Now, let's let's go in reverse order. Emergency financial needs. Look, this hits everybody all I mean, all the time. You know, a medical bill, the car breaks down. I mean, people sell Bitcoin because they have to because the alternative is they don't have transportation. They can't fix their car. Look, I get it. I mean, I I totally understand that uh in in in my situation, for example, here's a good example. I've got two tuition payments. One for my wife's grad school and one for my kids. Uh they're in a hybrid homeschool program and all this sort of stuff, but it's still got tuition. Uh anyway, so those those two payments are due in the next month or two, but I've got a settlement on some business stuff that's going to come in that's going to cover that. So, I'm not going to be a forced Bitcoin holder or forced Bitcoin seller. But if I didn't if I did not have this settlement coming through from some business stuff from years ago, um then I would I would have to liquidate some Bitcoin to pay those two tuition payments. But I'm not going to have to. So I'm covered. But I could have been a force seller. It's not much. It's a microscopic percentage of my total Bitcoin. But again, you get hit with two tuition payments. You got to pay them. I mean, I'm not going to pull my kids out of school and I'm not My wife's not going to quit grad school because tuition doesn't get paid, right? So I'm going to pay those tuition payments. Thankfully, I will not have to sell Bitcoin to do it. But if the circumstances were different and I had to, that's totally understandable. So when people sell Bitcoin, because they have to, I get it. If you're trying to save your house from foreclosure, if you're trying to save your business from bankruptcy, do what you got to do. Take care of yourself, take care of your family, take care of your business, take care of your life. I totally get it. Totally fine. Okay, so that's the third of the three categories is uh this is people who have emergency needs. And as the price of Bitcoin hits falls, people hit, you know, they get emergency needs. those don't just magically go away. All right, next category in reverse order are uh short-time horizon people, which this some of this is also normal. Uh there are businesses that have Bitcoin on the balance sheet and they know they're going to need that cash in the next 3 to 6 months and as the price falls, they look at their expenses and they're like, look, I can't handle another 5%. I can't handle another 10%. So they may be high conviction but they have to sell that Bitcoin because they can't afford due to the nature of their business and everything else. They can't afford a price correction of of another 5% or 10%. Um and in that case again I get it. I get it. You know life happens. You can't give up on your business. I mean maybe you had Bitcoin on your balance sheet because you thought hey 2025 is going to be a great year and then it turns out it's you know the the price has not done what you wanted. you can't afford to be down on your Bitcoin and you got to sell it. Like that happens even for high conviction people. I get it. Now, the first category is sort of the unforgivable category, which is low conviction people. These are people who own Bitcoin, but they never figured out why they own what they own and they let they let go of it very quickly. Um, a good example. So, I have never been a lowconviction Bitcoin holder, but I have been a low conviction holder of other assets. So, for example, at one time I owned uh stock from the Exodus Wallet Company IPO in 2021. Their stock uh went public at $27 a share. It was not liquid on the stock market, but uh it went I bought some at $27 a share. Uh ultimately in secondary markets it traded as low as $2. And then ultimately early either late last year or earlier this year it finally went up to $30 or $33 a share. It was a dollar higher than I paid for it and I was like whatever. And I sold all of it. It was like $200,000 of of that or something like that. So I put it in at $200,000 instead of Bitcoin. I should have just put more in Bitcoin back in 2021. Of course, by the time I pull it out, Bitcoin's up 50%. It's up zero, you know. But I was a low conviction holder. I was longtime focused. I mean, I was long-term focused. I held on to it for more than four years. Um, and uh, I did not have any emergency financial needs. So, but again, I was low conviction and because ultimately my thesis of why I bought that changed and I came to the conclusion that the company was not going to do the things I thought they had to do that were the reason I invested. So, I sold the stock. I was also a low conviction holder of Tesla earlier this year when I had 99% of my uh liquid assets in Bitcoin prior to April of this year. I had the last 1% in Tesla. Uh but ultimately I was a low conviction Tesla holder. I love Tesla. I own a Tesla. Uh my very best friend of the world is a huge fan of Tesla. Um, I mean, just like I got a lot of things going for Tesla, but I didn't My conviction in Tesla was lower than Bitcoin and ultimately I sold all of that Tesla stock lower than the price I paid for it. I sold it at a loss so I could buy more Bitcoin when Bitcoin do dropped into the 70,000s. So, in April of this year, even though Tesla was down, Bitcoin was more down and I had a higher conviction in Bitcoin. So, I sold the the Tesla stock at a loss. So, I could buy Bitcoin at what I perceived to be a deep discount, which was about 78,000 a coin. So, I I converted that Tesla stock to Bitcoin at about a Bitcoin price of about 78,000 a coin. But again, I took a loss on the Tesla stock. I'm not sure if the loss on the Tesla stock was larger or smaller than the price dip in Bitcoin, but my perception was I wanted to own Bitcoin rather than Tesla. And so, I was a low conviction Tesla holder. So if you're a huge fan of Tesla and you're and Tes back then Tesla stock was dropping and you asked why it was like well because someone like Joel Bonggar owns it and he loves Tesla the car but he's not as committed to Tesla the stock and so when I dumped that to buy Bitcoin which was one of the reasons in a microscopic way that Bitcoin dro you know bottomed at $74,000 because people like me were dumping Tesla stock to buy more Bitcoin at 78,000 and again as the price went down people bought more and more and more and so it bought them at 74,000 because people like me wouldn't let it go any lower. And if it had gone too much lower, I would have sold the gold and silver that I just sold last week to buy Bitcoin at $95,000, which I know it's below that. It's at $89,000 now. But I Bitcoin eventually could have gotten cheap enough that I would have sold that gold and silver back earlier this year. Um, but at last, you know, earlier this year, I selling the Tesla stock was, you know, that's what I was in the mood to do. I had not considered the gold and silver. Uh, and if the price has gotten cheap enough in Bitcoin, maybe I would have, but that was just not what I was thinking of doing. One second. So, once again, I was a low conviction Tesla holder. So, if we knew with perfect knowledge the mix of low conviction and high conviction, the mix of long-term versus short-term and the mix of who's going to have an emergency situation and who doesn't, then we could figure out what exactly the bottom of the Bitcoin price was, and we could predict that right now. And then you could say, great, I'll just buy it at 86,000 or 84,000 or 78,000 or buy it right now because now might be the cheapest it ever is. Now, statistically, it makes sense to buy it right now. I mean, you can run all the probabilities all day long and it will never statistically make more sense for you to wait. So, um it's it's the equivalent of somebody, you know, you do a coin flip flip and somebody says, "Look, you give me a dollar and I'll give you $2 75% of the time on coin flips." Well, of course, it makes sense to do it at 50%. At the 50% mark, it makes sense to give somebody a dollar if they give you more than $2 if you get a heads. So if they say, "Look, give me a dollar and every time you flip a heads you get $3." Well, it makes sense to do that all day long because your odds are two to one in favor of, you know, you get the payout is $3 versus losing $1. So it just makes sense to do that all day long. The break even point would be a dollar in $2 for a win. On average, you're going to win 50% of the time on a coin toss. So that's the way Bitcoin is, uh, where the odds are always in favor of buying now versus waiting. So, even back at $95,000 back over the weekend, I ran all the math and I said there is no price point lower than $95,000. That is statistically probable of happening more so than the probability of me missing out by not buying it. Which is the same right now. If somebody said, "Should I buy at $89,000 or wait for 88?" I would say, "Buy at 80 like right now." If they were like, "Yeah, but what about 82?" I would say, "Buy right now." If they said, "But what about 76?" I would say look there is no number where the statistical probability of missing out is lower than the statist statistical probability of buying cheap Bitcoin. You cannot statistically end up better off by buying at a discount. Now back to my coin flip. Let's say I flip a coin and I you know somebody flips a coin but they don't show it to me and they say, "Hey, do you want to bet on this coin flipped for your $3 or the next one?" And I would say, "Well, I'll bet on this one." But what if I get a tales? I get tales and I lose. I lose my dollar instead of getting $3. And somebody was like, "Yeah, aren't you aren't aren't you sad you did that?" Like, "Don't you wish you had picked tails or waited for a different coin toss?" And I'd be like, "No, that's stupid. I had a 2 to1 advantage." Like, you know, two to one, I would have won on won that one. It makes all the sense in the world. So, it's the same with Bitcoin. Although the odds of of buying of now being statistically better off as opposed to waiting are more like 4:1 to 8:1 depending on the price you pick, your odds of buying now being a better choice as compared to your odds of waiting for a cheaper price are about between 4:1 and 8:1 in favor of always buying now. So depending on which price you pick between 70 thou $75,000 $70,000 $85,000 depending on which number you pick your odds are four to eight times worse of actually ending up ahead. Now you might get lucky just like I might get lucky. I might say double or nothing double or nothing 26 different times and end up with a ton of money on coin flips because I get 25 heads in a row. But that doesn't mean it was smart to keep doing that if the odds were against me and I kept losing on two to1 odds against me but I kept doing double or nothing like no I mean if the odds are in favor of you buying now instead of waiting you buy now instead of waiting and if somebody gets lucky because they waited for $89,000 Bitcoin and you didn't well pat them on the head. Good job. But that that statistically they still made a dumb decision. So, I have no regrets about buying $95,000 Bitcoin. Just like I would have no regrets about flipping a coin if I got $3 if I win. You know, heads I get $3, tails I lose. Like, I got two to one odds. Like, come on. It makes no sense to wait. So, uh that's the way I feel about it. Um you know, the marketplace, we don't know how many low conviction, shorttime focus and uh people without emer, you know, people with emergency meds of some type. We don't know how many of those people are still in the market. Maybe it's zero. Maybe the price today is the lowest Bitcoin ever goes in all of history. James Czech would say, I don't know, maybe not. He would say, look, we don't know. We just know below $95,000. There was not a lot of trading activity in the 80,000s. So, if you're going into the 80,000s, you may end up in the lower 80,000s. Again, statistically, you're still worse off, but you got to prepare for that. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. Michael Sailor doesn't know. I just did a video where I covered all of the prices Michael Sailor spent tens of millions of dollars. He spent tens of millions of dollars at a 112,000 104,000 122,000 a coin. Michael Sailor, the guy's got more. He has bought more Bitcoin than anyone else on the planet by a long shot and he's buying it at every price because he knows nobody knows if it's going to 89,000. And so it never makes sense to wait and he knows it never makes sense to wait. So, everybody who's smart buys it at whatever price they can buy it at. Um, now if you've got the only caveat I would say to that is if somebody said, "Okay, Joel, I I've you know, I've got money I need to use on a down payment on a house in the next 3 to 6 months. I really can't afford to be down on that. So, I'm I'm short-term focused and I'm pro, you know, that counts as sort of an emergency need. Um, and and on top of that, but I'm very high conviction. Should I buy now?" And I would be like, well, if you can't afford to be down at all, then you really can't afford to buy Bitcoin unless it's deeply deeply discounted. So, for example, I posted on Facebook and said, look, how low would Bitcoin have to be before I borrowed against my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin? Well, that is a very risky proposition because you can get liquidated. Uh, as the price falls, you get margin calls. that if you can't make a margin call by putting up more collateral, meaning sending more Bitcoin to cover your loan, then you get liquidated and you lose your loan entirely. So, you know, I'll use round numbers. You put up $100,000 in collateral, you borrow $50,000. As the price of Bitcoin falls, you have to the 50% ratio starts to shrink. And if your loan to value, which starts out at 50%. If it edges up to 86%, you get liquidated and you lose your all all your collateral. So for me to do something that risky, I would it would have to be like 75,000 a coin, 74,000 a coin, some something ridiculously low. And if somebody said, "Yeah, but now you're waiting." I'm like, "No, I'm just not doing stupid stuff." You know, as long as you're not doing stupid stuff, you should buy right now. If you're going to do really risky stuff like borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin, then I would say, well, the riskier you're going out on the risk curve now, you have to have not just steeply, you know, discounted Bitcoin like today, you have to have insanely steeply discounted Bitcoin because your your margin for error is so tight. So, if you know you're going to need that money for a down payment on a house or your car is rattling and you know that you're going to have to replace it any day now and you said, "Hey, I know I'm going to have to replace my car any day now, but it's limping along. Would I buy $89,000 Bitcoin when I know I'm going to have to liquidated as soon as this car won't start?" I would say, "Well, that's kind of risky. You know, it's a whole lot less risky down in the 70,000s than it is in the 80,000s. If you know you're going to have to liquidate and you have and you need every penny you currently have to buy a new car and you literally cannot afford to be even 1% down, then I would say, you know, you could still end up 1% down. If you're at 75,000 because it drops to 74,000 and that's more than 1%. But the probability of that is even lower than the probability of going from 89 to 80 88 for example. Um, so as long as you've got a, you know, as long as you're planning to hold for the long term, you should always buy now regardless of the price. If you're planning to do something risky like borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin, I would say you really need to be at like extreme discounts because that is such a risky proposition that you're going to get liquidated and lose your collateral. Now, if you're in some somewhere in between, like right now at $89,000, if somebody came to me and said, "Okay, I want to borrow against my 401k to buy Bitcoin." Uh, I would say, "Okay, that's right on the line of what I would do at 89,000." You're probably right on the line for borrowing against a 401k. Now, the reason is if you borrow against a 401k, you can't get liquidated. You know, you your 401k does not require you to post more margin based on the price of Bitcoin. So you borrow against your 401k, you pay yourself back. You have to make, you know, interest payments on your loan, but you're effectively paying yourself those interest payments to your 401k. And if you can't make the interest payments, you get p you get charged a penalty on the money that you can't pay back. So it's like a 10% penalty or something like that. So if somebody said, "I wanted to borrow against my 401k to buy more Bitcoin." I would say, "All right, $89,000 is probably right on the line of where you know the riskreward." At 89, I would say don't borrow against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin because bad things happen when you do that. It's just risky. Um, if you got a long-term focus, I would say buy right now no matter what. Absolutely, no matter what. 89,000 is cheap Bitcoin. If you're doing something in between super risky, like borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin, which I do not recommend you do, period. Um, you're doing something between that risky and just buying Bitcoin in your 401k for the long haul. Um, then something between those two, um, I would say is something like borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. Sorry, no, borrowing against your 401k to buy more Bitcoin, which again, I'm not saying I recommend. I'm just saying if somebody said, Joel, I'm going to do it anyway. I'm going to I'm going to not take your advice to not borrow, you know, to not take out a loan to buy Bitcoin. I'm going to do it. Like, I'm going to buy Bitcoin with borrowed money and it's going to be borrowed from my 401k. At what price should I do that? I would say well probably 89,000 is probably a break break even point because again you're not going to get liquidated and as long as you got a long time horizon and as long as you know you can make the payments on the interest on those payments owning $89,000 Bitcoin is a pretty great price to own you know own Bitcoin. So that's how I'm thinking about things right now. Price could go lower if you want to know how low Bitcoin's price might go. The only way to get the best intelligence on what the price might be uh and how low it might go is James check. I'm sorry, you got to pay $29 a month for the next month and sign up for his newsletter. You get two updates a week uh complete with a 40-minute video plus a an email update that takes 10 or 15 minutes to read and he outlines all of that. Now, I will continue to summarize most of that and dump it on Facebook, but I'm never going to capture all of the nuance that he captures. I mean, there's no way I can do a Facebook video that's 10 minutes long with a summary of what's in a 40-minute video plus a 15inute written update complete with charts and graphs that like I'm never going to capture the nuance that he captures uh that you would get if you signed up for his $29 a month newsletter. Um, but I'll give you, you know, enough to make good actionable decisions for free. That's the benefit of me. It's free, right? You don't have to pay me. Um, so anyway, so I think now is a great time to buy Bitcoin. you know, if you want to do something moderately risky like borrow against a 401k to buy Bitcoin, I don't recommend that. But at least at these prices, it starts to make, you know, sense to do that if you're going to do it anyway. If you're doing anything riskier than that, like borrowing against a stock portfolio or borrowing against Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin, I would say, uh, I would not do that. I would not do that at $89,000. I'm sorry. Borrowing against Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin is how a bunch of people have ended up upside down on their Bitcoin. I mean, it's just, you know, a lot of people have lost a lot of Bitcoin by borrowing against Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. Again, not saying I'd never do it. I'm just saying I would not do it at $89,000. You'd have to give me Bitcoin that was so ridiculously discounted that I could not even conceive in my mind of the price going down to the liquidation level. And I don't know what that is, but you know, at $75,000 Bitcoin, I would at least go on Leen Ledn, which does Bitcoin loans. Strike S R Ike K. Uh they do Bitcoin loans, although I don't think they're available for individuals in Mississippi. Uh just for businesses. But yeah, you get down to $75,000 Bitcoin, I'm at least. and Morpho, you can borrow against your Bitcoin even though the terms and conditions tell you you should not and cannot use your Bitcoin that you borrow against uh the money you borrow on. Oh, someone just asked, "Did I lose my $2?" No, my liquidation price on the $2 Morpho loan where I put up $2 of collateral and bought one and got $1 of extra Bitcoin. $2 of Bitcoin collateral to buy $1 of additional Bitcoin. Uh my liquidation price is 66,000. So even though that loan was taken off taken out at I don't know what it is. I can figure out the math. 106,000 110,000 116,000 a coin. I don't know. Um whatever whatever the the price was substantially higher when I took out that loan on Morpho or maybe it was in the 90,000s but regardless it was significantly higher than it is now. Um, but the liquidation price price on that Morpho loan uh on Coinbase, which you can borrow up to $100,000 against your Bitcoin to buy, even though they say you cannot use this to buy more Bitcoin, uh, when I actually used it to buy more Bitcoin, it let me. So anyway, [laughter] um, you know, I guess you can use it to buy more Bitcoin because it didn't block me when I tried, but the terms and conditions say you can't. Um, but anyway, uh, the liquidation price is 66,000. Now, I don't think we're ever going to hit 66,000, but I'm not going to bet a huge amount of Bitcoin that we're not going to hit it because the other thing with uh liquidations is the price only has to touch it for a split second. So, what if like on this Morpho loan, which again, I would never have borrowed substantial Bitcoin at the price I did because it was higher. I mean, I'm telling you the low, you know, I'd have to get like 75,000 before I did something like that, uh, borrowed against Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin. Um, but anyway, let's assume I did. And let's assume or let's assume the liquidation price is 66. I don't think we're going to hit 66 period. I I would be shocked if we hit 66,000. But in order for that Morpho loan to get liquidated, it only has to hit 66 66,000 for a fraction of a second. Literally, the price can pound down there for the for a hammer punch and I get liquidated and then price immediately goes back to 75,000. One second later, I'm still liquidated. Like, I still lose my $2 of collateral. Now, I still own my $1 of Bitcoin that I bought at 106,000 or whatever the price was when I took out the loan. Um, but yeah, suddenly I'm sitting with $1 of Bitcoin instead of $2 of Bitcoin. I just lost half my Bitcoin. Um, but again, I only risked $1 or technically, yeah, I guess I risked $1 because I put up $2 of collateral and worst case scenario, I just keep the $1 I got. But I could I could lose $1 that way at 66,000. But again, it's risky because if it touches that price point, even for a split second, boom, it's gone. And then suddenly you're like, "But wait, it was $75,000 a second ago and now it's $75,000 again. How did I get liquidated at 66?" And the answer is because it touched 66 for a fraction of a second. And a fraction of a second is long enough to get liquidated. I mean, if it as the price changes in a split second, the Morpho protocol is going to liquidate your position. Keep your $2 of Bitcoin collateral. Boom. you're done. I mean that is how that works. Uh so anyway uh but anyway why are people selling? Going back to the summary, people are selling right now because they are some combination of low conviction, low uh long, you know, short-term focused and they have emergency needs to save businesses, save houses, foreclosures, stay out of bankruptcy, whatever it is. Those people are selling and it's pushing the price down. And if we knew how many were left, we could tell you how how low the price goes. We don't know how many are left. We don't know how low the price could go. Maybe it's as low as it's ever going to go. We don't know. The best person to know how low it could ever go is James Czech uh with the check onchain newsletter for $29 a month. You can sign up for one month. Then as soon as it's clear that the price has bottomed and we're on the upswing again, you know, you can unsubscribe. But, you know, within a month or two of that, you're going to want his newsletter for the opposite reason, which is, hey, we're up at 150,000. Is this a peak? [laughter] you know, at that point, I think we're off to the hundreds of, you know, 200,000. I don't know. But if you want to know, are we at a top or the top? Well, the James Check is also the best way to figure that out. So, hopefully this has all been helpful. Um, whatever happens, I hope it's quick. I mean, if we're going down to 85,000, 80,000, I just want it to be over. Hopefully, boom, we go down there, we're done, we come back. Nobody wants to grind around at any price. Grinding around is exhausting. Um, so maybe we are at the bottom. Maybe this video, maybe the literal video I'm recording right now, maybe this is literally the bottom price that Bitcoin will ever hit. Maybe as I'm talking, you know, Switzerland is announcing that they're buying huge amounts of Bitcoin and the price is about to go through the roof and 89,000 will be the lowest it ever goes. Um, anyway, who knows? All right, last question here. Uh, Lindy asks, um, anyway, I I [clears throat] won't it's more Bitcoin lending. Uh, I need to go read it closely and I don't want to do that live on a video, so I'll answer that separately. Um, anyway, that is your update. Even though James Czech gives much better updates twice a week, you get more frequent updates, just not nearly as good from me for free. So, that's your update for today. Hope it helps. I'm here to serve. Thanks everyone.