Why do I STILL recommend buying bitcoin, even when James Check is cautious in the near term?

00:01 Why do I still recommend people buy 00:03 Bitcoin even when James Check, my 00:05 favorite Bitcoin analyst, is cautious in 00:08 the near term? Well, let's walk through 00:09 some scenarios and I'll explain why. 00:11 First off, Bitcoin has gone from zero 16 00:14 years ago to $124,000 00:18 in the the last two weeks. It peaked 00:20 about 2 weeks ago, something like that. 00:22 10 days, two 14 days, something like 00:23 that ago. And then it came back down to 00:25 $108,000, about 12 or 13% below its 00:29 all-time high. And I was recommending 00:32 people buy Bitcoin all the way through 00:34 from the very first time I bought 00:35 Bitcoin. Uh the cheapest Bitcoin I ever 00:38 bought was $6,400. And I've been 00:40 recommending people buy Bitcoin at every 00:42 price between $6,400 00:45 and $124,000. 00:46 So first, let's talk about the high end 00:48 of that range, $124,000. So, as you 00:51 know, I follow James Check and all of 00:52 his analysis, which most of the stuff in 00:56 um the chart guys are just like 00:58 completely bogus and crypto bros, you 01:01 know, drawing chart lines on charts, 01:02 it's all, you know, completely garbage. 01:05 James Check takes a completely different 01:06 approach, which is he analyzes uh the 01:08 price of Bitcoin entirely through the 01:10 lens of supply and demand. And supply 01:12 and demand is the right lens to analyze 01:14 any asset through. Okay. Okay. So, first 01:16 of all, at 124,000 based on every past 01:19 indicator, he would say, I would say, 01:21 and everybody in the Bitcoin world would 01:22 say that was not the 4-year cycle top. 01:25 It's just if it is, it's sort of 01:27 completely unlike anything we've seen 01:29 before, which is not impossible. It's 01:31 just very unlikely. So, all the way up 01:33 to $124,000 strikes me as a good time to 01:36 buy Bitcoin. And because we know the 01:38 value of all the gold in the world is 01:40 worth more than $20 trillion. 01:42 And Bitcoin is only a $2 trillion asset. 01:45 So even if Bitcoin is only as good as 01:48 gold, then Bitcoin's got a good 10x up 01:50 to a million dollars per coin. The vast 01:53 majority of of gold's market 01:54 capitalization, its value, is due to its 01:57 monetary properties, not its decorative 01:59 uses in jewelry, not its industrial uses 02:02 as a conductor of electricity, for 02:03 example, but due to its monetary uses. 02:06 uh gold's monetary attributes of its 02:09 divis its divisibility, durability, uh 02:12 scarcity, uh verifiability, you know, 02:15 fungeability, all that sort of stuff. 02:16 Now, Bitcoin is better on all of those 02:18 characteristics than gold. Um, which 02:21 means I believe Bitcoin is going to be 02:22 worth more than a million dollars a 02:24 coin. It's not only going to reach 02:25 parody in market capitalization, meaning 02:28 all the Bitcoin in the world, I think, 02:29 will be worth more than all the gold in 02:31 the world, but I think it'll be 02:32 significantly higher than that. But how 02:34 much higher, we don't know. But 02:35 regardless, there's a very clear path to 02:37 $1 million per Bitcoin just with Bitcoin 02:40 competing with gold as a store of value 02:43 sort of digital gold because again for 02:45 monetary properties, Bitcoin is 02:47 categorically better in every category. 02:50 Okay. So, so there's never a bad time to 02:52 buy Bitcoin up to $124,000, which is the 02:55 highest it's ever been. Uh because 02:57 again, I think on your way to a million 02:58 dollars, every price on the way to a 02:60 million dollars is cheap compared to a 03:02 million dollars. All right. So, right 03:03 now we've pulled back from $124,000 to 03:06 $108,000. And James Check, my favorite 03:08 analyst, is cautious. He's saying, 03:10 "Look, we don't know what the future 03:11 could hold. 50% chances goes lower, 50% 03:14 chance it goes higher." He does not 03:16 think we go below $80,000, which I know 03:18 is sounds like a ridiculously low number 03:20 unless you've been in Bitcoin any period 03:22 of time, in which case it's a high 03:24 number because Bitcoin a year ago had 03:28 never touched $80,000 in its entire 03:30 history. So only in the last 16 years, 03:33 the last one year, parts of the last one 03:35 year, has Bitcoin been above $80,000 03:38 primarily from the end of last year to 03:41 most of the present, not all, but most 03:43 of the present. Um, but anyway, so if 03:47 you have an asset that might go to 03:49 $80,000, might go to 90, might go to 03:52 100, but is at 108, but it also has a 03:55 very high likelihood of going to a 03:57 million, then let's play out the 03:59 scenarios. What if I said it was a bad 04:01 idea to buy Bitcoin unless it was 04:04 100,000 or 95,000 or 90,000 or 80,000? 04:07 Well, the problem is you're making a 04:09 very bad uh the odds are not in your 04:12 favor is I'll put it that way. And 04:14 here's why. If you're going from 108 04:17 down to $80,000, you're trying to save 04:19 whatever 25% whatever that is. The 04:22 problem is the upside is a,000%. So your 04:25 certainty that Bitcoin will visit 04:29 $80,000 has to be what would that be? 25 04:33 into a,000 would be 40 40x. You know, 04:37 you better be 40 times more certain than 04:41 it's that it's going to go to 80 than 04:43 that it's going to go to a,000 because 04:45 otherwise it makes no sense to sacrifice 04:48 a 1,000% 04:50 upside chasing a 25% downside. that 04:53 ratio just makes no sense. And so the in 04:56 in the world of Bitcoin, it virtually 04:58 never makes sense to wait for a lower 05:01 price. I would say just categorically it 05:03 never makes sense to wait for a lower 05:05 price because you're you're potentially 05:08 forfeiting a,000% upside trying to 05:11 capture 5% 10% 25% downside which again 05:15 that mathematically just doesn't make 05:17 sense because whatever the upside is you 05:19 can divide it by the percentage you're 05:22 trying to capture on the downside and 05:24 you can have a good sense of sort of how 05:26 likely are you are to get left out in 05:28 the cold. This has happened numerous 05:31 times. I mean, just in the time I've 05:33 been in Bitcoin in the last 8 years, 05:35 there are numerous points where the 05:36 price goes somewhere and then people are 05:39 predicting it will go lower and then it 05:40 never does. Uh so, for example, uh 05:43 earlier this year, uh the peak last year 05:46 uh after the ETF launch in March of last 05:49 year was $73,800. 05:51 So, let's assume you picked your number 05:53 and you said, "Okay, the highest it ever 05:55 got after the ETF launch, immediately 05:57 after the ETF launch was 73,800. 05:60 If it ever touches that price again in 06:02 2025, I'm buying." Well, guess what? The 06:05 price dipped down to $74,600 06:08 and then it went up to 124,000. So, you 06:11 would have missed by about $800. And are 06:14 you seriously willing to sacrifice a 06:17 thousand% upside 06:19 because you're you guessed less than 1% 06:22 off of how low it might go? The the 06:24 biggest place that this was absolutely 06:26 insane and I mean insane was in 2022. Uh 06:31 the price had gone up and then up in 06:33 2021, came back in 2022 and we spent 4 06:36 months below $20,000. 06:39 And in fact, I think we spent quite a 06:41 few months, weeks at least, below 06:44 $17,000. 06:45 And all over Twitter, people were like, 06:47 "Only fools are buying Bitcoin for 06:49 $16,000. I'm waiting for $13,800." For 06:53 some reason, a ton of people on Twitter, 06:55 because they had all compared charts and 06:56 graphs, and they were all trying to 06:58 outguess each other, had been convinced 07:00 that Bitcoin was going to hit 13,800. 07:03 And so all of them were bragging about 07:06 how much dry powder they had and how 07:08 many US dollars they were sitting on 07:09 that they were just waiting to buy this 07:11 Bitcoin at 13,800. And the lowest 07:14 Bitcoin ever dipped after the FTX blow 07:17 up, which had nothing to do with 07:18 Bitcoin. It just FTX dra drug drag it 07:21 down because people didn't know the 07:22 difference. Um the lowest it ever dipped 07:24 was 15,500. Now people like me, I was 07:27 buying I was buying in the 30s, the 40s, 07:29 the 30s, the 20s, the teens. I was 07:31 buying at every price level because I 07:33 knew that we didn't know where the 07:34 bottom was and it was not worth risking 07:37 a massive mega upside in order to try to 07:40 capture a few extra percentages on the 07:42 downside. But there is a huge amount of 07:44 money, tens of millions, probably 07:46 hundreds of millions of dollars planning 07:48 to buy Bitcoin at 13,800 and they will 07:51 never buy Bitcoin at 13,800. All of 07:53 those people either paid a much higher 07:55 price than I paid when I was paying when 07:57 I was buying Bitcoin handover fist below 07:60 $17,000. They either paid a lot more 08:02 than that because once the price started 08:03 running, you know, they probably didn't 08:04 want to. They were they got they waited 08:06 a long time for that 13,800 and the 08:08 price was in the 20,000s or 30,000s 08:11 before it became clear they were never 08:13 going to get 13,800 and they finally 08:15 capitulated and bought it at a lot 08:17 higher price. So that's at least better 08:19 than just missing out completely. But 08:21 most people just miss out completely. 08:22 They're like, "If it ever goes down to 08:24 X, I'll buy more." And then when it goes 08:26 down to X, they don't buy more because 08:27 they're freaked out because the price is 08:29 dropping. And every time the price is 08:30 dropping, people are think it's going to 08:32 keep dropping, right? When the price is 08:33 going up, they think it's going to keep 08:34 going up. When it drops, they think it's 08:36 going to drop. So even if I knew there 08:39 was a 99% chance that Bitcoin would 08:42 touch $80,000, if somebody came to me 08:45 and said, "Should I wait?" I would say, 08:46 "No." First of all, there's a 1% chance 08:49 it doesn't. But there's a 50 to 80% 08:53 chance that if I tell them to buy 08:55 Bitcoin at $80,000 that if it ever gets 08:57 there on the 1% chance it does, I don't 08:60 know what the percent is. I'm 09:01 hypothetically saying 1%. They're not 09:03 going to buy it because everybody who 09:05 thinks they're going to buy Bitcoin at 09:06 $80,000 at 108 right now is going to 09:09 freak out when it actually starts going 09:11 that way and decide not to buy it 09:12 because it might go lower. And the same 09:15 psychology is is is happens in my case. 09:18 I bought a lot of Bitcoin in 2013 20 09:20 sorry 2017 and 2018 around $9,000 and I 09:24 told myself if Bitcoin ever goes to half 09:27 its current price I'm going to buy a 09:29 bunch more which is $4,500. Well, guess 09:32 what? It went to $4,500. What did I do? 09:34 I did not buy any Bitcoin at $4,500 cuz 09:37 I thought, well, if it's dropped this 09:39 much, it probably will keep dropping. 09:40 And yeah, it went into the 4,000s and it 09:42 with it touched for a little while there 09:44 the the high, you know, mid to high 09:46 3000s. And then it we're sitting at 09:48 108,000. Do I wish I had bought a bunch 09:51 of Bitcoin at at you know 4,500? 09:54 Yes. Do I wish but I didn't because 09:57 again I didn't. I wish at $9,000 10:00 somebody had told me to just go ahead 10:01 and buy more because if they had told 10:04 me, Joel, wait for $4,500 and go all in. 10:08 I wouldn't have done it because I 10:09 already told myself that and I already 10:11 planned to and I already didn't. So 10:14 nobody nobody who thinks they're going 10:15 to do that. Almost nobody ever follows 10:17 through. The price is falling. It's 10:19 scary when the price is falling. 10:21 Everybody's worried something's wrong 10:22 with Bitcoin and they don't buy the 10:23 Bitcoin. So, the best time to buy 10:25 Bitcoin is whenever you can buy Bitcoin. 10:27 Whenever you have US dollars that could 10:28 be converted to Bitcoin, that's a good 10:30 time to buy Bitcoin. If you try to time 10:32 the downsides, you generally are going 10:34 to miss out because either the price 10:37 will never touch that or it will touch 10:40 whatever your magic number is and you're 10:42 going to freak out and not buy it after 10:43 all. I mean, this is just chronic 10:46 classic human behavior, which again is 10:49 the reason I recommend buying Bitcoin at 10:50 all prices. Now, at some point, if James 10:53 Check says, "Hey, we're in the 10:54 130,000$140,000 10:56 $160,000 per coin and all of his 10:59 indicators, which are all based on human 11:01 behavior. It's based on how much profit 11:02 humans are in on their Bitcoin and how 11:05 much profit Bitcoin uh people are taking 11:08 on their Bitcoin and how how high the 11:11 value of all the Bitcoin is as compared 11:14 to the price everyone paid for it. So 11:16 all of those metrics are based entirely 11:17 on human behavior. It's based on the 11:20 likelihood that humans sell something 11:22 when they're in a certain amount of 11:24 profit or the likelihood that they 11:26 capitulate in pain when they're at a 11:28 certain amount of loss. So all of James 11:29 Check's research is not based on like 11:31 Ballinger bands and you know uh golden 11:35 ratios and you know all this crazy 11:37 stuff. It's not based on that. It's 11:38 based on human behavior. If the human 11:41 behavior he sees by watching the flows 11:43 in and out of the Bitcoin ETFs and all 11:45 this sort of stuff indicates that things 11:47 are getting quite frothy, meaning things 11:49 are getting a little crazy. Yeah, I'll 11:51 probably recommend that you dollar cost 11:53 average, which means buy the same, it's 11:55 just target price recurring buys. buy 11:57 the same amount of Bitcoin every week 11:59 and just leave it on as long as you can. 12:01 At some point I will probably recommend 12:02 you switch and you know dollar cost 12:05 average. Um and initially I thought if 12:08 it gets above $120,000 I'll recommend 12:10 that. But we got to $120,000 and it felt 12:12 like there was still a lot in the gas in 12:14 the tank. So I'm like great. If you can 12:16 buy Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin. So yeah. Um 12:18 James Check, his specialty is to help 12:20 people not buy the very tip and then 12:22 have to sit underwater for a year or two 12:24 or longer. Um and again at that point 12:27 it's better to just dollar cost average 12:29 but to me at least the yeah and even 12:32 James check I mean he's never said we're 12:35 close to the top for this cycle and uh 12:37 anyway so how low could we go? Nobody 12:39 knows. Are you going to buy it if it 12:41 goes lower? Probably not. Is now a good 12:43 time to buy Bitcoin? Yes, because the 12:45 only time you can guarantee you're going 12:47 to buy Bitcoin is if you buy it right 12:49 now. And if you don't buy it right now, 12:51 the the very high likelihood is it will 12:54 never hit the price where you think 12:56 you're going to buy it. And if it does 12:58 hit the price that you think you're 12:59 going to buy it, you're not actually 13:01 going to buy it because it's the price 13:02 is going to be down. You're going to be 13:04 freaking out. It's not going to feel 13:06 good. The best time to buy Bitcoin is 13:07 when it feels horrible. When it's 13:09 radically on sale and everyone's 13:11 worried. That's when it's the cheapest 13:12 and that's when the least number of 13:14 people are buying it because human 13:16 psychology says everybody's freaking 13:17 out. So, I think $108,000 is a great 13:20 time to buy Bitcoin. And again, if you 13:21 are worried it's going to go down, 13:23 dollar cost average. Set up a recurring 13:24 buy for the same dollar, US dollar 13:27 amount every week. $100 a week, $10 a 13:29 week, $1,000 a week, whatever you can 13:31 afford, and just leave it on autopilot. 13:33 And then you don't have to care about 13:34 what the price is. Because if it's 13:35 lower, you're buying it cheaper. If it's 13:38 higher, you feel good about what you 13:39 already own and you just sort of leave 13:41 it on autopilot. But now is a great time 13:43 to buy Bitcoin. It's 13% discounted from 13:45 the highest it's ever been. Could it go 13:47 lower? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on that. 13:50 And I certainly would not give up a,000% 13:53 upside trying to get it 5, 10, or 25% 13:56 cheaper. I'm never going to play that 13:58 game. And the reason I've ended up with 13:60 as much Bitcoin as I did is because I 14:02 don't play those games and I know that 14:04 people who try to play those games lose. 14:06 So that's why I'm still recommending 14:08 people buy Bitcoin even though James 14:10 Check is cautious in the near term, 14:12 extremely bullish in the long term. And 14:15 I guess I'm extremely bullish all the 14:16 time because I think there's not a bad 14:18 time to buy Bitcoin. And the only time 14:19 you're actually going to buy Bitcoin is 14:21 when you'll pull the trigger. And if 14:22 you'll pull the trigger right now, now's 14:24 a great time to buy Bitcoin. And when 14:26 it's 100 thou, it's when it's a million 14:28 dollars per coin. You will not care if 14:30 you paid 108 or 112 or 124 or 96 or 89. 14:36 None of those numbers are going to 14:37 matter when Bitcoin's a million dollars 14:38 a coin in the long term. And that is all 14:40 that really matters.