Why not ONLY buy bitcoin when it is LOW?

Why not only buy Bitcoin when the price is low? That way you don't have to go through the huge price draw downs and you maximize the amount of upside. Well, it sounds good, but it's not possible. And it's not possible because nobody knows what low is. So, the fatal flaw in everybody's buy it only when it's low plan is that nobody knows what low is. And if you knew what low was, you would be an instant billionaire because you would be able to predict what low is for on any stock. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Tesla, any of the magnificent seven high performing stocks or any other stocks. If you knew what low was, you would be a genius. The problem is it's not possible to know what low is. So what people try to do and what they have attempted to do for you know hundreds of years since the invention of stock markets is they've tried to figure out metrics and multiples and trend lines that tell them what low is. And there's fools all over the internet who always uh think that they have found something that predicts what low is and what is high what high is. And the way they do that is what's called back testing. So they download the entire database of all the Bitcoin price history for the last 17 years and then they run a bunch of calculations on it and they come up with some mathematical formula that predicts when Bitcoin is high and low. The problem of course is that formula only works on the past and not the future. And so anytime you try to come up with a model using back testing, first of all it's helpful to do back testing to find out if you your idea is totally stupid. But as soon as you think the future will support your uh you know back testing hypothesis, inevitably it doesn't. Let me tell you what a few people's favorites are. So I was I'm on a uh James Czech has like a private subscriber only list. Uh which I don't recommend because it costs like $200 a month which is not worth it. Uh frankly, even though I love his stuff, the nature of the private Telegram group is mostly people acting just as dumb as people on Facebook. So maybe there's a slight IQ bump, but uh most of the people on the James Czech Telegram group are, you know, making the same dumb trading strategies as every fool who thinks they're going to trade their way to day trading success. Anyway, but on there, um, you know, somebody was like, uh, you should only buy Bitcoin when it's a, you know, you should buy it when it drops below the 200E moving average and sell it when it's above or something like that. Anyway, they, you know, they've got all these stats on the 50we the, you know, 50week moving average and the 200week moving average and, you know, the blah blah blah, you know, vaulted prices and all this other stuff. And the problem is if you go look at the trend lines, the problem is the trend lines are always changing. So, for example, in the last recession, somebody could have said in 2008, you know what? I always, you know, I I buy the stock market when it hits a new all-time high, and I sell it when we officially declare a, you know, recession or something like that or, you know, whatever. Well, again, you can find ways to do it that back test, but somebody could look at it and say, "Okay, I'm going to buy every time the US economy hits a recession, and then I'm going to sell when we hit an all-time high." Well, you would have sold at an all-time high back in like 2013. So, the stock market is tripled in value the whole time. You've been waiting for the official recession to trigger that you should buy again and you've missed out on 300% returns. It's the same way with all these people who are trying to use the 200E moving average, the 50W week moving average, the 200 day, the 50-day, all those different moving averages. half or the majority of the time if you're trying to do that what ends up happening is let's say you sell it when it goes above the 200E moving average and you buy it when it goes below but Bitcoin will go above the 200WE moving average and stay there for a couple of years and so the 200WE moving average goes way up over time and so by the time it dips below the 200WE moving average let's say it crosses the 200WE moving average at like 35,000 a coin so you sell it at 35,000 a coin then it goes way up to 106 you 126, which if you're like me, you're spending, you know, buying and selling Bitcoin the whole time, which means you're also, you know, I went on a nice ski trip and I sold Bitcoin at, I don't know, over 100,000, you know, to go on a ski trip. Um, anyway, but then I'm always accumulating, so I'm always buying more, including at prices above 100,000 as well. Uh but anyway, so by the time you get around to buying back because Bitcoin has dipped below the 50we moving average or the 200week moving average, the price is way above $35,000. So whenever the price crossed and you waited for your next buying opportunity, by the time your favorite indicator triggers and says it's time to buy again, you've missed out on Bitcoin doubling. And so it's like you sold it at 35 and now you're buying back in at 67 because your favorite indicator says Bitcoin's in a crypto winter. Okay, but you missed out on doubling your money. I mean that's idiotic. So there is no indicator that reliably 100% of the time indicates where we are, how long we'll be there, what is cheap, what is low, what is high, what's expensive. Everybody tries and nobody's been able to solve that problem. which is why almost everybody who tries to play that game loses money. They just do. I mean, over and over and over they lose money. So, if I could tell you what low was and I could tell you that low in the future was going to be lower than high in the past, well then I would only advocate people buy Bitcoin when it's low. But we don't know that low is 67,000. If last in 2024 at, you know, 67,000 I had told you, hey, wait for the next crypto winter. You know, it's going to be brutal. We don't know when it's coming, but it'll be brutal. don't buy at 67, wait for the crypto winter. Well, guess what? You would have missed out on holding Bitcoin all the time while it was up, which would have let you use it if you wanted to, and you'd be stuck buying it at the same price today that you could have bought it in uh 2024, but you'd still be waiting for the crypto winter because again, we have a crypto winter right now, but the price went up so high before the crypto winter that the crypto winter is barely back down to the prices, you know, the high prices in 2024. So you could have bought it, you know, at 55,000 in 2024 for a bunch of the year. But if you were waiting for a crypto crypto winner, you're stuck buying it at 67 instead of 50. So or 55. There's just no way to win that game. Which is why I recommend buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It's just the only formula. And if anybody knew what low was or what high was or predict was able to predict what any asset would do in the future, whoever that is would be rich. And nobody does that. And the people who claim they could do that online run a bunch of different portfolios with a bunch of different strategies. And when they get lucky and one of them wins, then they post the result results of that portfolio online. They don't show you the 99 portfolios that lost money. They show you the one portfolio that was the winner and they claim that they had all their money in that one. It's the whole thing's a game. You can't win with that game. If you know what assets are going to perform best in the long term, all you can do is buy as much of those assets as you can and hold on to them for as long as conceivably possible, which is what I recommend people do with Bitcoin. That is the strategy that in the long term always wins.