Will Bitcoin go DOWN before it goes back UP?

Will Bitcoin go down before it goes back up? We don't know. But if you're a regular listener and watcher and reader of James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, you know that he's really kind of hoping it goes down before it goes up. And the reason for that is healthy markets, any market, it doesn't matter if it's gold, silver, platinum, palladium, any commodity, any stock, the stock market, bonds, there's just this pattern that often happens in healthy markets where it's got to go down to go go go up. It's sort of like a slingshot where you got to pull it back and then you launch it. But the effect of it is to shake out anybody that doesn't have strong hands. Basically, any degenerate gamblers that need to not be part of the market get shaken out in that pullback. You can see it with people using leverage, using futures and options and calls and puts and all that sort of stuff. You can see it because you can tell on major exchanges how much leverage are people using and at what price points they are using that leverage. So, the typical pattern you will see is as the price, you know, which is right now $88,000. So, $88,000. So, someone will think that's the bottom and they'll do 40 to1 leverage betting that it won't drop by 2.5%. Because if you're using 40 to1 leverage, then a 2 and 12% price drop liquidates your position. Poof, your Bitcoin's gone. Uh, which is why nobody who's watching this should be using leverage because you can really mess yourself up that way. So, so they do that 40 to1 leverage. the price moves by, you know, 2.5%, let's call it $2,000 to 86,000 and they open up a new percent uh new position doing 40 to1 leverage at 86 and then they get liquidated again at 84. And so they open up a new position at 84 with 40 to1 leverage. Now their portfolio is shrinking the whole time. The amount of Bitcoin they have to do this with is shrinking and shrinking and shrinking. Their collateral is just evaporating as they blow up their portfolio. And typically in healthy markets, you often have to do that over and over and over until until all of the people doing that come to the conclusion that they've been wrong all along and that what they should have been doing all along instead of betting that the price is going to go up, they then bet that the price is going to go down. So what James Czech likes to see is or what he's been talking about if you read again everything he produces, which I do. I watch every 40-minute video and I read every, you know, letter he produces. What he's been talking about a long time is that he would just love to see one last undercut of $80,000. Breaking $80,000. The the previous low was $80,500, you know, few months ago or a couple months ago, whenever it was, he would love to see one last undercut of $80,000 followed by a very quick V-shaped recovery. V-shaped, meaning it goes down and then immediately it goes back back up in the same day or certainly within the same week because it cleans out all of those degenerate gambler traders, leaving the Bitcoin holders that are still on board, the solid people that are doing it for the right reason. When you get a sharp decline like that, let's say we do get a V-shaped recovery, the price drops and drops and drops and drops and undercuts $80,000. you'll be able to see or we won't but you know people who have the dashboards that track all this stuff will see when all these degenerate gamblers flip to shorting. So, you know, it cuts below 80,000. They're like, I was wrong all along. Bitcoin's going to zero. It's time to short this thing all the way down. All the money I lost uh on the way down betting that it was going to go up. I'm going to make all of that money back with 40 to1 leverage betting that it will go down. And of course, as soon as all of them pile to the opposite side of the trade, then the boat flips over the other way. Think of it like this. Think of it like a boat, right? It's, you know, it's like rocking. And everybody's on the wrong side of the boat. So the boat's taking on water and it's like dumping people off on because they're all betting it's going to go up when it's not. And so they all decide at the same point, we're all going to run to the other side of the boat because clearly that is the high side of the boat because the side we're on is the low side of the boat that keeps dumping us out. So, we're all going to move to the opposite side of the boat so that the boat won't dump us out anymore so that we'll all be on the high side of the boat. Of course, what happens when everybody immediately then moves from one side of the boat to the other side of the boat? The answer is the boat tips the other way and it dumps all of those people out the other way, which happens like clockwork. It just I mean over and over and over. This is just how this works. And so, uh, you'll see if we do one nice last really strong undercut of $80,000, you will see everybody go from betting Bitcoin goes up to switching to shorts, shorting Bitcoin, betting that it's going to go down. At which point, of course, then it will start going up. And if you do 40 to1 leverage, betting that it's going to go down, then if it goes up by two and a half%, it blows up your portfolio again, which happens over and over and over. So they people just blow up their portfolios all the way down and then they switch to shorting Bitcoin and then it blows up their portfolio all the way up. And once those people have been blown up, they've zeroed out their portfolios. It's uh according to James Czech, thank you Mary very much. Now the market just goes higher. Um now nobody knows if that's going to happen. He doesn't know. I don't know. Nobody knows if it happens. James Ch considered that a very healthy pattern in all markets, not unique to Bitcoin, but in all markets to get one last flush before it goes higher. Literally, the price today at 88,200 could be the lowest price we ever see for the next, you know, eternity, for the rest of our lives. Today's price could be the lowest price we're ever going to see again. We don't know. But if you're holding Bitcoin for the long time, it doesn't matter. You know, will it undercut $80,000 one last time? Who cares? If it does, great. If it doesn't, great. I mean, all that matters is at some point we're going to cross 150,000. We're going to cross 200,000. We're going to cross eventually, it will take years to get there. We'll cross a million dollars per Bitcoin. It's going to happen. It's just a matter of time. And time, if you're not using leverage, is on your side. Now, if Bitcoin gets much below $80,000, I will probably open up a loan on Strike or Coinbase and buy some bit Bitcoin that starts with a seven. So, if we get into the 70,000s, I will probably take out a small loan borrowing against Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin. I do not recommend this. I'm only even considering it because I would do it with a tiny amount of my Bitcoin, such a small amount that if I did get liquidated, I wouldn't even care. And I have so much additional collateral that I can make sure I'm never liquidated. Don't do that unless you are in a position where you can afford to lose the Bitcoin you're doing that with or you have so much Bitcoin that you can't possibly get liquidated because your liquidation level is like 10,000 a coin or some ridiculously low low number that it will never hit. So the only reason I'm even watching the price is because the price is being stupid and irrational. And if the price is being stupid and irrational, eventually I will take, me myself, I will take some of that Bitcoin out of the hands of the people who are acting stupid and irrational, and I will put it in my long-term cold storage because if you're irresponsible with your Bitcoin, and you're selling it at a number that starts with a seven, I will take that from you with the number that starts with a seven and I will happily take that into my own cold storage. Now, if I borrow against my Bitcoin on Strike, which just uh released Bitcoin borrowing in Mississippi last week, if I do that, um if the number starts with a seven, that puts the liquidation levels way down, like down in the 50s and 40s. Um so, you know, lot of lot of room for error. Plus, I would overcolateralize the loan so that the liquidation levels are like, you know, back in the 2022 bare market levels, like some just ridiculously low number. Uh but if I decide to do that, I will post that. Um, but the reason why am I even considering that? Because if the market is stupid long enough, I will take advantage of it. And because I'm a 100% Bitcoin right now, I don't have any way of taking advantage of the market being stupid without borrowing against my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. Now, I could borrow against my house, but I'm not going to do that because my house is paid off and my family lives in my house, and I'm not going to borrow against something that's going to result in potential instability for where I live. Um, so you know, I borrowed, you know, I borrowed the collateral this vehicle, the Tesla I'm sitting in is being paid off over five years with a 6.25% loan from Trustmark Bank. Um, so I'm willing to borrow I'm willing to use leverage for the vehicle I drive because my other three vehicles are all paid for. So I don't mind being a little riskier for my vehicle because I have three more that the rest of my family drives. I don't want to be risky with my house. I don't have a 401k. If I did, I would borrow against my 401k to buy more Bitcoin, but I don't have a 401k. The one I used to have was already converted to Bitcoin. And so, I already bought 100% of my old 401k went into Bitcoin back in 2024 at a price of $57,000. So, that that 401k is already Bitcoin at 57,000. And once you convert an old uh uh 401k to a Bitcoin IRA, a rollover IRA, you can't borrow against it. Anytime you convert an an uh a 401k to an IRA, you can no longer borrow against it. But it let me buy Bitcoin with it, and I'm very happy with the Bitcoin that I bought at $57,000 uh with my entire 401k. So, I feel good about that. So, the only thing I really have to borrow against that doesn't potentially destabilize my family's house or the other three vehicles that are all paid for is my Bitcoin. And again, I would do it on such a microscopically small level that I'm at no risk to my Bitcoin stat because if I lose it, so what? It's such a small part, it doesn't matter. And uh and I've got so much collateral in addition to that that I can just, you know, if I get a margin call on the loan, I can just top it up. U but anyway, I'll post it to Facebook when I do that. I with any money that is not borrowed, I would buy Bitcoin right now today at 88,000. The problem is the only money I have is money that would be borrowed. And if you're borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, which I do not recommend, but if you're doing it, you do need to do it at a cheap Bitcoin price. If you're using legit money you already own, now is a great time to buy Bitcoin. If you're using leverage, I would wait till the other people that are using leverage doing the wrong thing are done getting liquidated and blown up, pushing the price lower, and then do it. So, you know, if I had a 401k to borrow against to buy more Bitcoin, I might do that right now, but I'm not doing a Bitcoin backed loan right now because that collateral uh floats with the market price and the liquidation prices right now, if I did a Bitcoin back low loan, are not quite as low as I want them to be. So, anyway, could Bitcoin go lower? Yeah, it might. just like my dog might do a a circle before it lays down. Um, doesn't mean it has to. Um, if you're borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, I'd wait for a lower price. If you're not borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, I would buy it absolutely positively right now because it is not worth worth missing out on the upside. With borrowed money, I'm fine missing out on upside because I'm I don't borrow money to buy Bitcoin unless the price is like ridiculously on sale. Like it starts with a seven, not an eight in the price. Uh, but I don't have any money to buy Bitcoin that's not borrowed money, which means I'm kind of hoping it dips one last time because if so, some people that are irresponsible with their Bitcoin are going to end up with giving some of that to me involuntarily and I'll be happy to take it. Um, or voluntarily. I mean, it's voluntarily, but they're not going to be happy about it after the fact when it goes back up. But I'm waiting. I'm happy either way. Goes down, goes up, I'm good. I'm patient just like a good investor.