Will the ELEVATOR price of bitcoin go up or down? Here’s the answer

Will the elevator that is the price of Bitcoin go up or down from here and what makes it go up and down and how can we know in advance whether it will be uh going up or down. All right, let's talk through this analogy which I've used before which is the price uh the Bitcoin price is like a gazillion people in a massive mega elevator and on one side of the elevator you have green buttons called buy and those are buttons that make the elevator go up. When people mash the green buy buttons, the elevator goes up. Right now, we are at a $111,000 per coin. So, let's take off the thousands and call that the the the uh the the place we're at is floor 111. So, we are on the 111th floor of the building in this massive mega elevator uh room with a gazillion people in it. And uh again, on the right side, you got the buy buttons, green buttons. On the left side, you got red sell buttons that make the elevator go down. Now, everybody on this elevator wants to do something. A lot of them are happy to just sit there and watch like me. But some of them want to go down to the ground floor, get off this elevator because they are tired of the ride. They want to give up their Bitcoin. They want to go do something else instead. They don't understand it or they're in a panic mode because the economy is draining their bank account or uh and they're looking for liquidity to keep a business afloat or to save their house. So, they're over on the left side or I guess right side. They're over on the right side here mashing uh the uh I guess it' be the left side. Usually it's sell on the left and buy on the right. So they're over on the left side of this massive mega elevator just mashing away on the red buttons wanting to go down down to the down to the ground floor getting off the elevator. They are selling Bitcoin and when they're mashing that red button the price is trying to go down. But on the other side there's a bunch of people who have learned about Bitcoin for the first time. They understand the value of it as a scarce digital ideal money for the modern age. They're over on the right side mashing that green button. They want to see how high we can go. They're excited about $150,000 Bitcoin, $200,000 Bitcoin. They want to get up to that 150th floor, that 200th floor. They're over there mashing the green buttons. Now, and then a billionaire shows up with a lot of purchasing power, a lot of button uh button mashing power. And if a billionaire goes over on the left side and mashes a bunch of the red buttons at the same time, the price can go down quickly. But if another billionaire steps in, goes over to there to the right side of the elevator and mashes a bunch of the green buttons, the price goes up. So who wins the war of all of the mashing of the sell buttons and the mashing of the buy buttons? Because this elevator, which is the price of Bitcoin, can only be in one place at a time. It's either at the 111th floor or it's down at the 107th floor. And the people who want to go down and get off are happy when it's going down, you know, four floors down from 111 down to 107. But the people up here at 111, they they like it a lot better at 126 like it was the recent all-time high of, you know, a few weeks or a month ago. They want to get back to 126, and they want to go up to floor 150, 200, and beyond. So, who wins the m the button mashing contest? The answer is whoever's mashing the buttons harder and faster wins the contest in the near term. But the problem is if you are mashing the buttons on the sell side, which is the left side of the elevator, the red buttons that go down, you can only mash the buttons the number of times you own Bitcoin. So there's a huge advantage on the buy side because when you look back in the elevator, you realize 95% of the people on the elevator haven't mashed either button. 95% of the world doesn't own any Bitcoin and those are all like people who are on the elevator. It haven't decided to mash a button yet. One second. So they haven't mashed a button yet. So this elevator has a gazillion people on it. 95% of which are not mashing buttons. And the only button they even could mash is the green buy button. Because these people have US dollars, they have Juan, they have yen, they have euros. They have assets that they could use to mash. If you pulled all 8 billion people in the world and asked them how much money they had and whether they plan to buy or sell Bitcoin over the next week or two or three, you could actually predict the price of Bitcoin because you would know exactly how many people were going to be standing at the buy buttons and the sell buttons mashing them. uh you could know how many people there were and how hard they would be mashing and then you could predict the price of Bitcoin exactly over the coming weeks if you knew the exact behavior of the 8 billion people on planet Earth in advance. Now, the reason we don't know where the price of Bitcoin is going is because we don't know what those 8 billion people are going to do. Many of those 8 billion people have no idea what they're going to do. They don't know how they're going to feel tomorrow morning. They don't know if they're going to wake up and want to buy Bitcoin. They don't know if they're going to wake up and want to sell Bitcoin. They don't know if they're going to read about Bitcoin on the news and suddenly be a first-time buyer of Bitcoin out of the blue. They don't know. So, because they don't know what they're going to do, and we don't know what they're going to do because they don't know what they're going to do. And because we have no way of polling 8 billion people to find out what they're going to do in advance, then we just have to watch the market play out by the buyers and selling sellers mashing the red button down and the green button up and the price will just do its thing. Now, we can predict the long-term trajectory of the elevator because we know that the elevator has 95% of people that can only push the green button because again, if only 5% of the world owns any Bitcoin at all, by definition, those people cannot be Bitcoin uh sellers because they don't have any Bitcoin. You can't sell Bitcoin you don't own. So when you step back and realize that 95% of the world can only mash the green up button and only the 5% of the world that owns Bitcoin can mash the red down button, the sell button, then you know eventually this thing is going to go up if Bitcoin possesses monetary properties that make it valuable as money. So you can study that and you can find out that humans need money. We're not going back to barter. And that uh the the characteristics of a good money there are a variety of them but it is something that is scarce, durable, divisible, fungeible, verifiable, uh authenticatable and a few other things. Uh divisible anyway the good properties of money. Well, once you know that Bitcoin is the best money in the universe, you know that eventually those 95% of the people are going to get around to going and mashing that green button, which is going to make the price go up. Now, in the interim, are there a bunch of people mashing the red button that could make it go down before it goes up? Yeah. But over time, the 95% is always going to overwhelm the 5%. And even when it's b more balanced, as Bitcoin is adopted worldwide, until you have 100% Bitcoin adoption, you always by definition have more people that could uh buy than could sell. Because if you don't own Bitcoin, you could buy it. But if you don't own Bitcoin, you can't sell it. And so there will always be more potential buyers than sellers. And it's just a matter of the worldwide adoption of Bitcoin. Even when Bitcoin is 100% adopted worldwide as money. Um it will stabilize and it will go up and down a little bit as people have greater and lesser needs for money as compared to stocks or bonds or real estate and things like that. But even then, human productivity growth still goes up at about 3% a year. So, and hum you know population growth, productivity growth. So, humans will need uh more purchasing power in general which will make the price of Bitcoin go up even after it's fully adopted worldwide and even after 100% of the people on the elevator could push either button. So, we don't know what's going to happen in the in the in the near term because we don't know what's going to all the people on that elevator which represents the whole population of the world. We don't know how many of those are going to be mashing the sell button versus the buy button in the short term. We just know that in the long term, a lot more people can and will mash the green buy button than will mash the red sell button and therefore the price eventually goes up. Uh, and because everybody who has Bitcoin likes it if the price is rising and they feel good about it, they tend to stop mashing the red button as soon as the elevator starts rising or at least they delay mashing the red button because they think, "Ooh, you know, I could just get off at a higher price." So anyway, so all markets work this way. gold, silver, stocks, bonds, real estate, soybean, you know, corn, uh, everything, everything that has a market works this same way with buyers and sellers. It's called supply and demand. And the price goes up and down like an elevator depending on how many people are mashing the green buy button and how many people are mashing the red sell button and how much money they have to mash each button at each time and how hard and how fast they're mashing that button. And when you're watching the price of Bitcoin change real time in River or Cash App or Bit Key um or on Coinbase, when you're watching that real time number go up and down, you know, 111,126 and then it it jumps by $5, then it goes down by $15. All of that is you're watching the real time effects of people mashing the sell and the buy button, wanting to go green, go elevator, go up, red, go down, and get me off. That's what you're watching in real time. And thinking about it like an elevator is a helpful framework to understand what's really going on and what you're watching take place and play out right in front of your eyes. And eventually the green is going to overwhelm the red and we are not going to be at $111,000 anymore. Could we go down before we go up? Sure. But eventually we always eventually go up. uh which is why Bitcoin is such a great investment is because eventually it always goes up based based on the credibility of its monetary properties and humans need for money as a technology to avoid having to barter.