Here is MY PLAN for 2025 and 2026, based on what I think is going to happen with bitcoin

00:00 Here is my plan for what I'm going to do 00:03 in 2025 and 2026 based on the price of 00:06 Bitcoin. First of all, 100% of my liquid 00:09 assets are in Bitcoin. That goes both 00:12 for the money I live on as well as my 00:15 charitable giving funds. So, I'm like 00:17 100% Bitcoin. Now, my wife manages a 00:20 small uh emergency reserve that is not 00:23 in Bitcoin. Uh, and that was set up in 00:25 2014 when Bombgar Corporation sold. And 00:27 I knew I had a very high risk tolerance. 00:30 And I knew that, uh, I have a very high 00:32 risk tolerance, just to say it twice. 00:35 So, I wanted to make sure that if I 00:36 completely screwed up absolutely 00:38 everything, which thankfully I have not, 00:40 uh, but that if I did, our children 00:42 would not go hungry. And obviously, I 00:44 get my paycheck from Prosper and I'm 00:48 full-time employed with Prosper, so I 00:49 have a job, too. Um, anyway, so here's 00:52 my plan for 2025. in 2026. So, because 00:54 my net worth including my charitable 00:56 giving funds are 100% in Bitcoin, that 00:60 means the wealth I have both to live and 01:03 to uh give away money is denominated in 01:06 Bitcoin. So, we're going to use just 01:09 round numbers of 114,000 is the price of 01:13 Bitcoin. So, what am I doing in 2025 and 01:15 2026? I'm living my life like Bitcoin is 01:19 worth $114,000. 01:21 And with the price of Bitcoin changes, 01:23 that will change. So right now, I feel 01:26 like I can afford nice vacations. I can 01:28 afford my Tesla. I can afford basically 01:31 anything I want to do. At $114,000 01:34 per coin, I can do absolutely everything 01:36 I want to do relatively aggressively. 01:39 Still can't get crazy. Got to be 01:41 reasonable. Um, you know, I drive a 01:44 Tesla, not a Lamborghini, right? I mean, 01:46 I'm a rational person. So, I live a 01:49 relatively modest lifestyle with 01:52 relatively modest things, but given my 01:55 modest tastes, I can basically uh 01:57 splurge pretty aggressively with Bitcoin 02:00 at 114,000. Like, I can eat at whatever 02:03 restaurants I want. I can tip, you know, 02:05 I I tend to tip very aggressively. I can 02:09 tip a lot, you know, which often 02:11 includes tips of like 50% or 100% or 02:15 150% of the price of the meal. Um, so 02:17 what is going to happen? I don't know 02:19 what's going to happen in 2025 and 2026 02:21 with Bitcoin. Bitcoin could dip to 02:24 $80,000. 02:25 I don't know. I don't think it will, but 02:27 it could. Um, Bitcoin could go up to 02:30 $180,000. I think that's more likely. 02:33 There's no way of predicting that. But I 02:34 will live cons, you know, within my 02:37 means. And the means I have to live are 02:40 denominated in Bitcoin. So that will 02:42 determine what that is. So $114,000 02:44 Bitcoin. Obviously, I'm feeling very 02:46 good about my finances and very good 02:48 about everything. And that will only get 02:50 better on the way to a million dollars 02:52 per coin. You know, if a h 100,000 a 02:54 coin makes me feel great about my 02:56 finances, which it does, then a million 02:59 dollar a coin makes me feel 10 times as 03:01 good about my finances, which it one day 03:03 will. Same with my charitable giving. At 03:06 my charitable giving level at $114,000 03:09 per Bitcoin, I am relatively aggressive 03:12 with my ability to give away money. Um, 03:16 I spend, you know, on charitable causes. 03:19 I spend at least $25,000 a month. per 03:24 month. Literally per month, I am giving 03:26 away ballpark call it $25,000 a month to 03:30 various causes from Christian missions 03:33 to uh church to uh a lot of efforts 03:37 related to the uh education and 03:40 onboarding of people to Bitcoin. But at 03:42 114,000 per coin, I can give away 03:46 $25,000 per month for a very long time 03:49 of charitable giving funds. Now, if the 03:51 price of Bitcoin starts to dip, I got to 03:53 rein that in a little bit. So, maybe 03:55 instead of 25,000 a month being my 03:57 charitable giving budget, maybe I've got 03:59 to cut back to 20,000 a month. So, 04:01 Bitcoin did dip to $80,000 per coin. Um, 04:06 which is a 33% price correction off of 04:09 120. Obviously, we went up to 123. So, 04:11 that would have to be even a little bit 04:13 more than a, you know, 33% price 04:14 correction. But, if we dip to 80,000, I 04:17 would, first of all, I'd ride it out. I 04:19 mean, I wouldn't make any changes to my 04:20 charitable giving over the first few 04:21 months. But if it became clear that we 04:23 were in a long-term bare market and we 04:26 were not going to see six-figure Bitcoin 04:27 for a long time, like a year, then yeah, 04:30 I would have to be a little more 04:31 conscious about what I'm doing with my 04:33 charitable giving funds. I would not 04:34 want to be burning through $25,000 uh US 04:38 dollars of Bitcoin every month with 04:40 Bitcoin at 80,000. I can afford to do 04:42 that at Bitcoin at 114. Um, likewise, if 04:46 the price goes up, I get more aggressive 04:48 in my charitable giving. So, if the 04:50 price goes to $200,000 a coin, I can 04:53 ramp my charitable giving from $25,000 a 04:55 month to 35 or $40,000 per month. I'm 04:59 always just calculating, okay, what is 05:01 the price of Bitcoin? How many, you 05:04 know, how much Bitcoin do I have to work 05:05 with in my charitable funds? How much 05:07 Bitcoin do I have to work with with my 05:09 personal funds? And how long does that 05:12 Bitcoin need to last? In both cases, I'm 05:14 trying to make that Bitcoin last for the 05:16 rest of my life. Now, I'm constantly 05:18 buying more Bitcoin. So, that gets 05:20 easier and easier over time as I buy my 05:22 more Bitcoin. But, I want the ability to 05:25 be able to live the rest of my life on 05:27 just the Bitcoin I have. And I want the 05:30 ability to give charitably very 05:32 aggressively for the rest of my life 05:34 with just the Bitcoin I have. Now, 05:36 hopefully, you know, I have substantial 05:38 stock in Prosper. Um, and hopefully that 05:42 will be liquid at some point in the 05:43 future, which would, you know, make my 05:45 net worth much much much much higher 05:47 than it is today. Um, but that is an 05:50 unknown. The the timing of that is 05:52 unknown. Even though Prosper is a very 05:54 valuable company, it is not liquid, 05:56 which means I cannot use Prosper stock 05:58 to buy things right now. But at some 06:00 point in the future if Prosper goes 06:02 public or you know there is some other 06:05 uh liquidity event then well first of 06:08 all it it means if there's liquidity 06:10 event that results in me having getting 06:11 US dollars I will immediately convert 06:13 those to Bitcoin. Um, but regardless, if 06:16 my net worth increases substantially, 06:18 I'll do the same thing, which is 06:19 probably modestly ramp up my live 06:22 personal expenses from a lifestyle 06:24 perspective and aggressively ramp up my 06:27 charitable giving because my charitable 06:29 giving is I'm can afford to be more 06:32 aggressive on a percentage basis with 06:34 those funds than I can with personal 06:35 funds just because personal funds has to 06:37 support six people and charitable giving 06:39 is coming out of a relatively large pot 06:42 uh and that is 100% denominated in 06:44 bitcoins. has done really well, but I 06:46 don't know what's going to happen in bit 06:48 with Bitcoin in 2025 or 2026. Just like 06:51 the the two videos I recorded earlier 06:53 today, I'm in the same camp of I think 06:55 there's between a 50% and a 60 51% and 06:58 60% chance. So, greater than 50, but 07:01 just barely. I think we're past the 07:03 four-year cycles. I think we'll probably 07:05 grind up from here with various price 07:08 corrections of 33% along the way. And if 07:11 we get a big price rise, you know, a 07:13 sudden spike in the price of Bitcoin, 07:15 you know, to $200,000, yeah, I can see, 07:18 you know, or let's call it 220, 240. 07:21 Yeah, if we get a price, you know, a 07:23 sudden rise to $240,000, 07:25 absolutely, I can see a 50% price 07:27 correction after that back to 120. So, 07:30 who knows? Um, all I can do is what 07:33 everyone does, which is you adjust your 07:36 spending based on your perception of 07:39 your earnings ability and your wealth. 07:41 And you adjust those to try to make sure 07:43 you don't run out of money. And that's 07:45 what I do with Bitcoin. Since I'm 100% 07:47 Bitcoin for both personal funds and 07:49 charitable funds, I adjust my personal 07:52 expenditures based on how much Bitcoin I 07:54 have and how long it needs to last. I'm 07:56 45 years old, so I would like my Bitcoin 07:59 to last for at least another 55 years. 08:01 Um, my kids already know that they're 08:03 not going to inherit a lot of money. Uh, 08:06 my my will is set up, and my kids know 08:08 this, to cover their health care and 08:11 education, and if there's money left 08:13 over, to cover their kids healthcare and 08:15 education. But at no point do my kids 08:18 end up with a just a big lump sum of 08:20 money smack in their lap. Um, I'm not 08:23 opposed to people who do that. I just 08:25 think uh you know you got to really 08:27 really really work hard to manage 08:30 incentives because people who have a ton 08:32 of money that suddenly falls in their 08:33 lap tend to not behave well. I've just 08:35 known a lot of rich people over my days 08:38 and the ones who just gave their kids a 08:40 bunch of money uh that tended to not go 08:43 well. Um but I want to be able to very 08:46 aggressively give away money for a very 08:48 long time. Um, so anyway, on my personal 08:50 experience expenses, I'm just monitoring 08:53 that to make sure that they last for 55 08:54 years and that there's plenty left over 08:57 to pay for my kids' healthcare and 08:58 education and my grandkids healthcare 09:00 and education and I plan to give the 09:03 rest away. Um, and as far as charitable 09:05 giving funds, uh, they only need to last 09:07 as long as I do. Um, my view is I earn 09:10 that money and so I will give it away. 09:12 And if my kids want to give away a bunch 09:14 of money, they will earn a bunch of 09:15 money themselves and they will give 09:17 away. But the people who are best at 09:19 allocating capital are the people who 09:21 earned it. And in my case with me and my 09:23 wife, we earned the money that is on our 09:25 charitable charitable giving funds. And 09:28 so I fully intend to give all of that 09:30 money away. Uh because again, I think 09:32 whoever earns the money tends to have 09:34 the best ability to allocate that 09:37 capital to good causes. Um so anyway, 09:40 that is the plan. Um it's worked well so 09:43 far and that is the plan for the long 09:45 haul. So, don't try to predict the price 09:47 of Bitcoin. It's impossible to know what 09:49 the price is going to be tomorrow or 09:51 next week. In fact, you'll notice uh 09:53 over the last 3 weeks, I had at least 09:56 two, if not I guess two paychecks hit at 09:58 a price higher than today, and I 10:00 immediately bought Bitcoin. If I knew 10:03 that the price was going to be $114,000 10:05 today, obviously, I would not pay use a 10:07 paycheck and buy Bitcoin at $120,000 or 10:10 $118,000. 10:12 I would b wait and buy it at $114. 10:14 Nobody, not you, not me, not Michael 10:17 Sailor, not James Czech, nobody knows 10:20 what the price of Bitcoin is going to be 10:21 next week or next month. And so all you 10:23 can do is buy Bitcoin with whatever 10:25 money you have as soon as you can and 10:27 sit on it for as long as conceivably 10:29 possible. That is the only strategy that 10:31 consistently works. I will continue to 10:33 do that in 2025 and 2026. And in the 10:36 meantime, I will check the price of 10:37 Bitcoin periodically and I will live my 10:39 life in a very sustainable, modest, and 10:44 uh sustainable way. Um so, so that I 10:47 make sure I've got plenty of Bitcoin for 10:49 the future and I've got plenty of 10:50 charitable giving funds for the future 10:52 as well. And that's my plan. It 10:55 basically doesn't matter what happens 10:56 with the price of Bitcoin because I have 10:58 a plan regardless in all scenarios 10:60 whether Bitcoin goes straight up or has 11:03 a major price correction. I'm going to 11:05 live my life based on the net worth that 11:07 that price tells me I have. And that's 11:09 worked well. And that's what I plan to 11:11 do.