Will bitcoin go WAY UP in 2025, or CRASH in 2025? Here’s how to know

00:01 Will Bitcoin go way up in 2025 or crash 00:05 in 2025? Here's how to know. And here's 00:08 what the best experts on the topic are 00:10 thinking right now. First of all, 00:12 historically, Bitcoin has gone in a 00:14 4-year cycle. Uh it always ends up way 00:16 higher than it was before. And the 00:18 lowest point in the low in the low of 00:21 the four-year cycle ends up being also 00:24 way higher. So, for example, I'll give 00:26 you just the highs. The highs were $32, 00:30 uh, then $1,200, then $69,000, 00:35 then 00:36 sorry, then $19,000, then $69,000, 00:40 then $123, which is the cycle we're in 00:43 right now. So again, if you look at just 00:44 the highs for the four-year cycles, it 00:47 was 32, 1,200, 00:50 19,000, 69,000, and 123,000. If you look 00:55 at just the lows of each cycle, uh, 00:57 which the lows obviously followed each 00:59 of those numbers, the first low was $2, 01:02 then it was $92, then it was $3,200, 01:06 then it was $15,500. 01:09 Okay? And so I'm going to string those 01:11 together and say, and so in 2011, uh, 01:14 Bitcoin went from, uh, 5 up to $32, then 01:20 crashed to $2. Then it went up to $1,200 01:23 and crashed to $92. Then it went up to 01:26 $19,000 01:28 and crashed to $3,200. Good evening. 01:32 Then it went up to $69,000, 01:35 crashed to $15,500. 01:38 And here we are recently went to uh 01:41 $123,000. 01:43 So again, if you look at just the highs, 01:46 it goes up up up. If you look at just 01:48 the lows, it goes up up up. So the 01:51 question is and historically that's been 01:53 three up years and one down year. So uh 01:56 the first you know four the first years 01:59 leading up to 2013 were up up years 2014 02:02 was a down year. Then 15 161 17 were up 02:05 years 18 was a down year. Um 1920 and 21 02:10 were up years. 22 was a down year. 23 24 02:14 and 25 have all been up years. And so 02:16 the question is, wait, if you notice a 02:18 pattern here, you might be thinking, 02:20 what happens next? Is the price going to 02:22 crash in 2026, which would keep the 02:26 4-year pattern going? Uh, first of all, 02:29 nobody can agree on this. Most of the 02:31 best experts think that we are past the 02:35 four-year cycle, meaning the level of 02:37 adoption of Bitcoin is high enough now 02:39 that we're just not going to get this 02:41 four-year adoption cycle, which is 02:44 natural for technologies. Each different 02:45 technology goes in different cycles. 02:47 Bitcoin for a variety of technical 02:49 reasons tends to be in a four-year 02:51 cycle. Other technologies happen to be 02:53 in a sort of a different cycle. But the 02:55 adoption of any technology or any any 02:59 anything frankly happens in cycles for 03:02 reasons if you want to understand why 03:04 read the bullish case for Bitcoin by VJ 03:07 Buaati which I would recommend anybody 03:09 at this point in Bitcoin's life. That's 03:12 like the best you book you can read if 03:13 you want to understand why Bitcoin 03:14 behaves the way it does. The bullish 03:17 case for Bitcoin by VJ Boyapati. Okay, 03:22 it's on Audible, it's on Amazon, it's on 03:24 Kindle, it's on everything. Okay, so 03:26 most people think there is between a 51% 03:29 and a 60% chance that we are past those 03:32 four-year cycles, which means we are 03:34 going to grind up and Bitcoin will bore 03:37 us to death on the way to a million 03:39 dollars. Meaning, we're just going to we 03:41 grind up 20 or 30%, hang out there for a 03:44 couple weeks or a couple months. Grind 03:45 up 20 or 30% and then just I mean, then 03:49 we hang out there for some series of 03:50 months. Then we grind up 20 or 30%, then 03:53 we hang out there for a series of 03:55 months. Grind up again. So, that is a 03:58 very boring way of getting to a million 03:59 dollars, but it also is an amazing way 04:01 of getting to a million dollars because 04:02 you don't have these crazy epic 04:05 downturns. Now, that doesn't mean uh so 04:07 far since 2022, the last really bare 04:10 market, meaning down market, pessimistic 04:12 market, um we have had two downturns 04:15 that were between 30 and 33%. Let's call 04:18 them 32%. Uh let's call it 33 cuz that's 04:20 like 1/3 oneird of 100. Um so, we've had 04:23 two downturns of 33% since 2022. But the 04:28 other down four-year cycle downturns 04:30 were much larger. uh back in the early 04:32 days it was a 94 in uh after 2011 it was 04:35 a 94% correction after 2013 it was a 93% 04:38 correction after 2017 it was a 84% 04:42 correction and after uh 2021 it was a 04:45 77.5% 04:48 correction these all these numbers are 04:50 all off the top of my head but but 04:52 they're all accurate. Um so anyway um 04:55 most people think those sort of 04:56 corrections are done. Um and in order to 04:59 get those sort of corrections you have 05:00 to have a huge run up in the price 05:02 before the correction. That's the way 05:04 that works. The uh the term is the bull 05:08 authors the bear. Authors as in in a u t 05:12 h o r s. Authors as in is the author of 05:15 the bear. So the reason you had those 05:18 major price corrections in the past of 05:21 94% 93% 84% and 77.5% 05:26 was because right before that there was 05:29 a massive increase in the price. So 05:32 before that 94% correction the price 05:34 went from 5 to $32. That's like a 05:38 ridiculously insane run. And then um 05:42 before the 93% correction, the price 05:44 went from $2 to $1,200. 05:48 That's crazy. So, of course, there's 05:49 going to be a correction after that. 05:51 Okay. Before the 84% price correction, 05:54 the price went from $92 up to $19,000. 05:59 Of course, you're going to get a price 06:00 correction. So, and uh before the 77% uh 06:05 77.5% price correction, the price went 06:08 from um $3,200 06:12 up to $69,000. 06:16 Again, a huge price increase. So, the 06:18 bull market authors the bare market. And 06:21 that means you can tell how big of a 06:23 bare market we're going to have based on 06:25 the bull market that happens before it. 06:28 So, if somebody said, "What is the 06:29 biggest price correction you think 06:30 Bitcoin would ever do off of today's 06:32 price?" I would say, "I don't think it's 06:35 going to be that big because we haven't 06:36 had this crazy bull run leading up to 06:40 it." Um, now obviously we've gone from a 06:42 low of $15,500 in 2022 06:46 up to $123,000. 06:49 So you're thinking, well, that's a huge 06:51 rise, but that rise happened relatively 06:54 slowly, unlike in the past where those 06:57 rises were just this epic uh, you know, 07:00 epic run that happened in a series of 07:02 months. In this case, we've gone higher, 07:05 but we've gone higher little by little, 07:06 slowly by slowly. I mean, we've just 07:08 basically ground higher. Um, and when 07:11 you grind higher, the marketplace has a 07:13 lot more time to adjust to the different 07:15 price points of Bitcoin, meaning the 07:17 probability that you get a big price 07:18 correction is lower. So, if we continue 07:22 to grind higher and Bitcoin bores us to 07:25 death on the way to a million, there 07:26 probably won't be a huge bare market. 07:29 That doesn't mean we won't get price 07:30 corrections of 33% or even 50% along the 07:33 way, but it's highly unlikely we get a 07:35 77.5% price correction like back in 2022 07:40 and which was caused by the blowing up 07:42 of I mean like every stupid company that 07:45 did stupid things with crypto, not 07:47 Bitcoin, but crypto. They all blew up at 07:49 the same time in the second half of 2022 07:51 and it just dragged the market way down. 07:53 And then the cherry on top was Sam 07:55 Bankman Freed and his blow up of FTX. So 07:58 if we don't have something like that 08:00 then it's unlikely that we will end up 08:03 with a huge u you know bare market. So 08:07 again between 51 and 60% probabilities 08:10 is what the best most most informed 08:12 people are saying that we're past those 08:14 cycles and it's going to climb climb 08:16 climb boring us to death on the way to a 08:19 million which leaves somewhere between a 08:21 40% chance and a 49% chance that we will 08:24 get a big parabolic rise. If we do get a 08:28 big parabolic rise, what that looks like 08:30 is the, you know, the end of this year 08:33 in a very few short months, we get this 08:36 epic tear where Bitcoin goes from 08:38 $114,000 where it is today all the way 08:41 to 180 or 190 or 210 or $220,000 08:46 in a very short period of time. like in 08:48 the matter of 6 weeks or 8 weeks or you 08:51 know something like that you get this 08:53 huge rise adding more than a trillion 08:55 dollar to the price of Bitcoin uh the 08:59 total price of Bitcoin because there's 09:01 21 million coins so the value of all the 09:03 Bitcoin in the world is the current 09:04 price $114,000 09:06 times 21 million which right now puts 09:09 the market capitalization at like 2.3 09:12 trillion or something like that. So if 09:14 you go up 50,000 a coin, you're adding a 09:17 trillion dollars to the market 09:18 capitalization. And that's a lot of 09:20 money. It takes a lot of money to add a 09:22 trillion dollars to the price of 09:24 anything. So um the best way to know 09:27 what's going to happen next, or at least 09:28 the probabilities, is to follow James 09:31 Czech, who goes by checkmate, and on 09:33 Twitter he's either checkmate or 09:35 checkmate with a Y. Um and he has a 09:39 subscription service that charges $29 a 09:41 month. and he is by far the best 09:44 commentator and analyst about why 09:46 markets behave they do the the way they 09:49 do the human psychology uh behind every 09:52 move of the market and what it is what 09:56 is likely to happen next based on how 09:59 things are playing out. So I follow 10:01 James Czech he is my sherpa that helps 10:04 me understand what's coming next. He is 10:06 the one who coined the term I think the 10:08 you know the bull authors the bear and 10:11 uh he is just by far the best person uh 10:14 to give insights on what's going on how 10:16 much profit are people in that are in 10:18 Bitcoin how much profit are they taking 10:20 and of course it makes no sense to take 10:22 profit uh one second here 10:28 in my opinion it take makes no sense to 10:31 to get 10:33 sorry my internet went out for quite a 10:35 few minutes there and now it's back on. 10:38 So, this video seems like a live video, 10:41 but it's actually recorded in two 10:42 totally different segments because my uh 10:46 my cellular went out. So, here we are 10:48 again. But this is uh totally I mean a 10:51 different time of day, different 10:52 location, but hopefully Facebook Live 10:54 will string the two videos together. 10:56 We'll hope for the best. Um anyway, so 10:59 James Czech authored the, you know, the 11:00 the the terminology of the bull authors 11:03 the bear, meaning you can tell how big 11:04 of a correction's coming based on how 11:07 epic or unsustainable a price rise was 11:10 before it happened. And James Czech also 11:12 is constantly following for example how 11:15 much money is getting coming into and 11:18 out of Bitcoin. How much unrealized 11:20 profit people are in meaning all the 11:23 people who hold Bitcoin how much total 11:25 up are they in on their investment 11:27 because statistically the more people 11:29 are up on their investment the more 11:31 likely they are to sell their 11:32 investment. Um so he tracks all of that 11:34 and then he also tracks how much profit 11:36 taking again assuming you want to call 11:38 it profit taking. I would call it, I 11:40 don't know, stupidity of moving, you 11:42 know, Bitcoin into US dollars. But 11:44 obviously, if you're using it to improve 11:46 your life or your family's life or, you 11:48 know, go on a nice vacation, great. Good 11:50 for you. I have no problem with 11:51 converting Bitcoin into things that 11:54 improve the life of you or your family. 11:56 I would just never convert Bitcoin into 11:59 US dollars with the intent of holding US 12:01 dollars because that makes zero sense to 12:03 ever convert something that is scarce 12:05 into something that is not scarce. The 12:07 goal is obviously to end up with more of 12:09 what is scarce, not what is less scarce. 12:12 Um, so to to recap here and then I'll 12:14 add a few more details. To recap, 12:16 Bitcoin has gone through four major 12:18 cycles, four-year cycles. Most people 12:21 think that those four-year cycles are 12:23 over, but only by, you know, 51 to 60%. 12:26 So, they barely lean in favor of the 12:29 four-year cycles being over. you will 12:31 know if we are having four-year cycles 12:33 because if we get a radical increase in 12:37 the price of Bitcoin, you know, in the 12:39 second half of this year, uh, or the 12:42 first half of 2026 or whatever, 12:44 actually, at any point, at any point, if 12:46 we get a huge runup in the price of 12:48 Bitcoin, that makes the chart for 2025 12:52 or 2026 look like the charts from 2013 12:57 or actually, so if you look at the chart 12:59 for 2025, it doesn't look anything like 13:02 uh 2011 or 2013 or 2017 or 2021. But if 13:07 we get a huge rise that makes 2026 or 13:11 2020 uh uh sorry 2025 or 2026 13:16 look like those huge rises in 2011, 13:19 2013, 2017 and 2021, then yes, we will 13:22 get a price correction. All right. So, 13:25 let's talk about actually I'm going to 13:27 do a separate video talking about why 13:30 the price is correct after a huge bull 13:32 run. So, I will I will probably do that 13:35 video next. But, let me think that 13:36 there's anything else I can do on here. 13:37 So, again, James Czech for $29 a month 13:40 is by far the best person to follow if 13:42 you're super into Bitcoin. He is the 13:44 only