Here’s what I think is about to happen with bitcoin

00:00 Here's what I think is about to happen 00:02 with Bitcoin between now and the end of 00:04 the year. First of all, we are at 00:06 $112,000 right now. Less than 10% from 00:10 the highest Bitcoin has ever been in 00:12 history. So, we are literally less than 00:14 10% from a new all-time high and a new 00:17 record high. We've been chilling down 00:18 here at 112,000, 110, 111, you know, 00:22 109. We've been chilling down here uh 00:25 for weeks now. something called chop 00:27 solidation, which is a combination of 00:29 the word chopping and consolidation, 00:32 which is what an asset does when it's 00:35 basically getting used to and adjusted 00:37 to a different level. It does it on the 00:40 way up. It also does it on the way down. 00:42 And uh it's just it takes time for all 00:44 the people who want to get on the train 00:45 and off the train to get on the train 00:47 and off the train at a different price 00:49 level. So right now in the last 24 hours 00:51 there was $ 35 billion of Bitcoin that 00:54 changed hands at between $ 1110,000 and 00:57 $112,000 per coin. $35 billion and most 01:01 of the last 24 hours included Sunday, 01:04 which is not obviously not a workday. 01:06 And the market only opened an hour ago 01:08 um or less than an hour ago for the 01:10 stock market. So obviously it's open 01:13 longer in Asia and in Europe because 01:15 their time zones are ahead of ours. But 01:17 regardless, $ 35 billion. Now, normally 01:19 during a weekday, it's closer to like 60 01:21 or 80 billion dollars changed hands. So, 01:24 at some point, one of two things is 01:26 going to be true. Either the people 01:27 willing to sell Bitcoin at $112,000 are 01:31 going to run out, or the people willing 01:33 to buy Bitcoin at $112,000 are going to 01:37 run out, leaving people who either want 01:39 to buy it and are willing to pay 113 or 01:42 leaving people who are not willing to 01:44 pay 112 and are only willing to pay 111. 01:47 That is the way all supply and demand 01:49 works. 100% of supply and demand is 01:52 based on exactly that. It's supply and 01:54 demand. what price are people willing to 01:56 pay for an asset? And uh you know, if 01:59 there are more buyers than sellers or 02:01 the buyers want more Bitcoin than the 02:03 sellers want to sell at any given price, 02:05 the price goes up. If the reverse is 02:07 true, the price goes down. So my 02:09 prediction is at some point, could be 02:11 today, could be a month, could be two 02:13 months, could be who knows. At some 02:15 point, of course, in the long run, the 02:17 buyers always outstrip the sellers 02:20 because Bitcoin is only adopted by 5% of 02:23 the world. So there's 95% of the world 02:25 that has not adopted Bitcoin, which 02:27 means there are way more potential 02:29 buyers than there are way than there are 02:30 sellers because the all of the sellers 02:32 represent 5% of the world population at 02:35 most. And most of that 5% owns a tiny 02:38 amount of Bitcoin like $50 or $200 or 02:41 such a small amount that they don't have 02:43 the ability to move the price at all. 02:45 The 95% of the world that owns zero 02:48 Bitcoin controls the vast majority of 02:50 wealth of the world. All of those people 02:52 need Bitcoin eventually just like I do, 02:55 just like Michael Sailor does, just like 02:56 everybody does because you need a way to 02:58 store your time and energy for the 03:00 future, which is what money does. And 03:03 the US dollar as money is not working 03:05 very well for that purpose. And the 03:07 stock market is at record high 03:09 valuations right now, which means if 03:10 you're buying stocks from the stock 03:12 market, you're paying a higher price per 03:15 dollar of profit of those companies than 03:17 has ever been the case in human history. 03:20 Now, could the stock market keep going 03:21 up? Well, everything in the short term 03:23 can keep going up. The question is, what 03:25 about the long term? Is the stock market 03:27 massively overvalued? In my opinion, it 03:30 is. And that re results in a massive 03:32 price correction of the stock market at 03:34 some point. I certainly would not want 03:36 my money in the stock market right now, 03:38 which is why I have 0% of my money in 03:41 the stock market right now because I 03:43 don't want to be exposed to that stock 03:44 market crash. Um, so stocks, you know, I 03:48 think are massively overvalued. Bonds 03:50 have been massively underperforming for 03:52 the last couple decades now, or at 03:54 least, I don't know, 5 10 years. It's 03:56 been a significant period of time that 03:57 bonds have just gotten crushed. Uh, and 04:00 the Federal Reserve is about to print a 04:02 ton of money. So, there's a massive, you 04:05 know, lawsuits over this, uh, you know, 04:07 Fed governor that was, uh, claiming that 04:10 she was living in multiple places as her 04:12 primary residence simultaneously to get 04:15 cheap interest rates. And people have 04:16 been running around knocking on the 04:18 doors of places that she claims are her 04:19 primary residence and finding renters 04:22 living there. Um, so how's that for the 04:24 Federal Reserve? So, it's just 04:26 ridiculous stuff. But anyway, the 04:27 Federal Reserve is about to print a ton 04:28 of money because when you're 37 trillion 04:30 in debt, you can't have high interest 04:33 rates because it pay means you're paying 04:35 through the nose to support your debt. 04:38 And the United States is paying through 04:39 the nose. We're spending more money uh 04:41 on interest payments on the 37 trillion 04:43 in debt than we are on the entire 04:45 national defense budget to protect our 04:48 country, which is really the only 04:49 function that you could even plausibly 04:51 claim the federal government ought to be 04:52 doing is protecting us from aggressive 04:55 other nations. But we now spend more on 04:57 our debt than we do on that which is 04:59 absolutely I mean like ridiculously 05:01 insane. So my prediction is the buyers 05:04 outstrip the sellers the price goes 05:06 higher or it'll be some sort of 05:08 catalyst. A catalyst meaning some sort 05:10 of trigger like the Federal Reserve 05:12 actually starts the massive money 05:14 printing. You know they're always prices 05:16 the dollar's value is always going down 05:18 and the total amount of money worldwide 05:21 is going up. But if the question is what 05:23 is the speed and if the Federal Reserve 05:25 cuts interest rates which there's like a 05:26 98% chance according to prediction 05:29 markets that they will cut interest 05:30 rates um it's either next month or 05:33 October it's either September October 05:34 whenever it is obviously that uh pushes 05:37 a bunch of US dollars into the system 05:39 and they start slashing around and those 05:41 US dollars cause inflation to rise and 05:44 uh anyway they tend to push the price of 05:46 Bitcoin way up because uh everybody 05:49 tries to get out of the US dollar and 05:51 into something that's not the dollar. 05:53 Um, which is what, you know, ultimately 05:55 triggers hyper hyperinflation. Even 05:57 though the US dollar is not close to 05:58 hyperinflating, it is still bad to keep 06:01 your money in US dollars because they 06:03 lose value so much. Uh, and inflation's 06:05 creeping up, unemployment's creeping up, 06:07 and the Federal Reserve is about to 06:08 print a bunch of money, which means um 06:11 everything's going to get I mean it 06:14 means it's going to become even less 06:15 desirable to not be in Bitcoin. So 06:18 regardless whether it's a specific 06:19 catalyst or whether they buyers just you 06:22 know outnumber the sellers and finally 06:24 people get tired of selling Bitcoin at 06:26 110 111 112 whatever the price goes up. 06:29 So at some point there will be a 06:30 significant reset. The price will jump 06:32 from you know 112 to 135 140 something 06:37 like that. And everybody will be saying 06:40 well uh now I believe in Bitcoin. Now 06:42 I'm a true believer. This is exactly 06:44 what I needed to see. You know I just 06:47 needed to see a huge uptick. I needed to 06:49 see Bitcoin respond to the insanity of 06:52 the outside world. Now I'm now it's time 06:55 for me to get in. and they're all going 06:56 to come to me and they're going to say, 06:57 "Joel, I'm I'm ready. The Federal 06:59 Reserve's printing a ton of money and uh 07:02 I've been watching this thing since 07:03 $90,000 or $60,000 or $110,000 and now 07:08 at 140 I'm ready." But of course, they 07:10 will feel like Bitcoin's expensive. And 07:13 you know, they'll be reluctant to buy 07:15 Bitcoin because Bitcoin's they're going 07:17 to perceive it to be expensive at 07:18 $140,000. 07:20 And of course, my judgment is always, 07:22 hey, it's going to a million. So, you 07:24 know, 120, 110, 140, like those are all 07:27 pretty small numbers compared to a 07:29 million a coin. So, if it's going to a 07:30 million a coin in the next 10 years, 07:32 well, no other asset's going to do that 07:34 for you. At least no other major asset 07:36 that doesn't have insane risk. So, still 07:38 seems like a fantastic time to hold 07:40 Bitcoin. But they're going to say, 07:42 "Yeah, but it's, you know, it's 07:43 expensive. It's expensive. It's 07:44 expensive." And I'll tell them, well, 07:46 you know, welcome to the club. Everybody 07:48 who ever bought Bitcoin thought it was 07:50 expensive. Every Bitcoin I ever bought 07:52 felt expensive when I bought it because 07:54 someone before me bought it for less. 07:56 And of course, you know, even if you 07:58 were mining Bitcoin the day it was 08:00 invented and released in on January 3rd 08:02 of 2009, you were still spending 08:04 electricity and computational power to 08:07 make your computer run hot and drive up 08:09 your electric bill to get Bitcoin. That 08:11 technically was free, but it wasn't free 08:12 because you had to run you had to burn 08:14 up electricity to get it, which is why 08:16 it's, you know, it's provably scarce. 08:18 Um, and you would have thought, why am I 08:20 burning electricity for something that 08:22 doesn't even have a price yet? And so, a 08:24 lot of people turned their computers off 08:25 and did not mine Bitcoin because, you 08:27 know, Bitcoin did not have a price yet. 08:29 And, you know, it costs electricity to 08:31 get some. So, anyway, so everybody has 08:34 who has ever bought Bitcoin or gotten 08:37 Bitcoin thought they were getting it 08:39 expensively. And the truth is, you know, 08:41 in the long run, every Bitcoin that 08:43 looked expensive ends up looking cheap 08:45 in the rearview mirror. But anyway, so 08:47 those people, they will end up buying 08:49 Bitcoin at $140,000. Inevitably, Bitcoin 08:52 will come back and bounce around between 08:54 125 and 135 or something like that for a 08:57 little while and they will be moping 08:59 about how the Bitcoin they bought is 09:00 expensive and they're underwater on 09:02 their investment and it's been all of 27 09:05 days and they're not rich yet and what's 09:06 wrong with Bitcoin and here we go again. 09:08 Now, how do I know this pattern will 09:11 happen? Because it's the pattern from 09:12 everybody who's ever been onboarded to 09:14 Bitcoin. they always buy after a big, 09:17 you know, run up in the price because 09:19 they use the runup in the price to 09:21 validate that it's a good asset. What 09:24 they should do is validate that it's a 09:26 good asset by researching Bitcoin and 09:28 understanding Bitcoin. But because 09:30 people don't have the time to do that or 09:31 the interest to do that, they use the 09:33 price as validation. Well, that means 09:35 they are validated in how awesome 09:37 Bitcoin is after a runup in price, which 09:40 means they're buying after a runup in 09:41 price. And when you buy after a run up 09:43 in price, then you've got to deal with 09:45 chop consolidation, which is right where 09:47 we've been for the last month or two, 09:50 where it chops around at a price higher 09:52 uh lower than its all-time high. Still 09:54 high. I mean, heck, 10% away, less than 09:57 10% away from the all-time high. Like, 09:59 by every other conceivable measure, 10:01 that's an asset that's doing fantastic. 10:04 But of course, that's not how people 10:05 think. People think, "Yeah, but I bought 10:07 it at 115 and it's down at 112." It's 10:09 like, well, when did you buy it again? 10:11 Well, 27 days ago. Well, what did you 10:14 think? Like, no investment is guaranteed 10:17 to be up in one month. Like, what you 10:20 know, Bitcoin is the highest it's ever 10:21 been other than the last 100 days. So, 10:23 if you bought Bitcoin anytime prior to 10:26 the last 100 days, you're up on your 10:27 investment. But guess what? There are 10:29 people who bought it in the last 100 10:30 days and they're feeling like, you know, 10:33 mopey that they're down on their 10:34 investment. And it's like, it's been 100 10:36 days. You know, one, you could buy more 10:39 Bitcoin at 110 or 111 or 112. So, you 10:42 don't have to be down in your Bitcoin. 10:44 You can buy new Bitcoin and if you 10:46 bought it at 110,000 yesterday, you're 10:48 up on up at 112,000 a day. So, dollar 10:51 cost average down, which means buy more 10:53 at a lower price so that the average 10:55 price you paid is lower. You can always 10:57 do that. Um, so, uh, but anyway, so 11:01 there will be a catalyst or the sellers 11:03 will be outrun by the buyer or something 11:05 like that. Of course, there could be a 11:07 dip. Also, as I've always said about 11:08 Bitcoin, it goes up and down on its way 11:11 up. Now, I said up twice and I said down 11:13 once. So, eventually it always goes up 11:15 because it goes up more than it goes 11:17 down. But that does not mean it can't go 11:19 down before it goes up. So, if the 11:21 sellers uh if the willingness for people 11:25 to sell at 112,000 exceeds the 11:27 willingness of people to buy in the 11:29 short term at 112,000, then the price 11:31 will go down. How low could it go? Well, 11:33 James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst 11:35 who runs the Check onChain newsletter 11:37 for $29 a month, he will tell you 11:39 exactly with all of his analysis the 11:42 probabilities of Bitcoin dipping to 11:43 different prices. Uh, at the end of the 11:45 day, he will say and I will say nobody 11:47 knows. Nobody knows what's Bitcoin is 11:49 going to do in the near term. All that 11:51 matters is the long term. And in the 11:53 long term, it goes way up. So, in the 11:55 long term, it makes sense to own as much 11:56 as you can and hold on to it for as long 11:58 as possible because the longer you hold 11:60 on to it, the higher probability that 12:02 you are up a higher percent. I mean, 12:04 it's a really simple formula. It really 12:06 works that simply. Uh, so anyway, I 12:09 think by the end of the year, there's 12:11 going to be a bunch of people who wish 12:12 they had bought more Bitcoin right now. 12:14 And all of the new people that bought 12:15 Bitcoin after the next big price rise 12:17 are going to be exactly where the people 12:19 are right now who bought Bitcoin in the 12:21 last 100 days, lamenting the fact that 12:24 they bought expensive Bitcoin and it's 12:26 trading slightly below their price. And 12:28 of course, if they wait just a little 12:30 bit, if they wait, they'll be way up. 12:32 Bitcoin is up more than 100% in the last 12:34 12 months. So any Bitcoin you owned one 12:37 year ago today has more than doubled in 12:40 value in the last 12 months. Now what 12:42 asset has doubled in value in the last 12:44 12 months? That's insane. That's 12:45 incredible performance. But again, 12:47 nobody wants to zoom out that far. They 12:49 want to focus on the Bitcoin they bought 12:50 27 days ago. I'm just making that up. 12:52 I'm just picking a random round, you 12:54 know, a random odd number. 27. You know, 12:57 they all want to focus on the Bitcoin 12:58 they bought 27 days ago, not the Bitcoin 13:00 that they bought one year ago that has 13:02 more than doubled. So all of investing 13:04 is about being patient. All about it, 13:07 you know, all of the money in investing 13:09 is in the waiting. That's what uh 13:11 Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett and 13:13 all the famous investors say is look, 13:15 you make all the money in the waiting. 13:17 You know, you buy and then you wait. And 13:18 you make all the money in the waiting. 13:20 You don't make all the money in the 13:21 trading. You don't make all the money in 13:23 the buying and selling. We make it in 13:24 the waiting because then the waiting is 13:26 when you when the asset has time to go 13:30 from the price you paid for it to a 13:32 higher price. And if you wait long 13:34 enough with an asset that the world 13:35 really needs like Bitcoin because it's 13:38 money and the world needs money and it's 13:39 a better money than any money that's 13:40 ever existed, then you are in a better 13:43 spot long term. So if I had any US 13:46 dollars, I don't because I'm 100% 13:48 Bitcoin. I own, you know, no stocks, no 13:50 bonds, and just barely enough US dollar 13:53 cash that I don't bounce a check to a 13:55 babysitter or a contractor. Um, you 13:58 know, because some of them demand, you 13:60 know, a paper check because they don't 14:02 know any better and I can't convince 14:03 them to take Bitcoin yet because it's 14:05 such a new technology that they're just 14:07 not there yet. Um, so I I don't have any 14:09 US dollars I could uh buy Bitcoin with. 14:12 you know, in another seven days, my, you 14:15 know, twice a month paycheck will hit 14:16 and I will buy Bitcoin in seven days 14:18 from now, no matter what the price is. I 14:20 will absolutely buy it no matter what. 14:22 Um, but, you know, that's 7 days from 14:24 now. Right now, I do not have any US 14:26 dollars I could buy Bitcoin with. If I 14:28 did, I would buy it at $112,000. And I 14:31 would be patient. The most I've ever 14:32 paid for Bitcoin is, I think, $122,000, 14:35 which is just happened to be the price 14:37 when one of my paychecks hit. I 14:39 immediately bought $122,000 Bitcoin uh 14:42 with my paycheck and obviously I'm 10% 14:45 down or less. I'm 8% whatever it is down 14:48 on that investment. Uh but I don't care 14:50 because I've been buying Bitcoin at all 14:52 different prices. And if you buy Bitcoin 14:54 at all different prices long enough, you 14:55 end up with an average price of what 14:57 you've paid for Bitcoin substantially 14:58 below the current price. So, you know, 15:01 in my case, my average price for all the 15:03 Bitcoin I've ever bought from 2017 to 15:05 the present is about $35,000. So 15:07 obviously I've more than tripled my 15:09 entire net worth because my average 15:11 price is $35,000 15:13 and I've got 100% of my net worth in 15:17 Bitcoin. So if my average price is 15:19 35,000 and I'm 100% exposed, then that 15:22 means I have more than tripled my entire 15:25 net worth other than private company 15:27 stocks which are obviously not part of 15:28 that. But as far as like liquid assets, 15:30 stocks, bonds, you know, cash, all that 15:33 sort of stuff, I have more than tripled 15:35 my net worth. Um, so the same will be 15:37 true for you at some point if you buy 15:40 Bitcoin now at 112,000 and then you buy 15:42 some more at 118 and more at 126 and you 15:46 know at some point in the future it'll 15:47 be 500,000 per coin but your average 15:50 price will be 180,000 per coin or if you 15:52 started accumulating last year the year 15:54 before hopefully your average price will 15:56 be substantially lower than that. There 15:58 are a lot of people with a lot of 15:59 Bitcoin that bought it last year during 16:02 the eight months when Bitcoin was 16:04 between $55,000 and $70,000 and they are 16:08 in the ballpark of doubled their money 16:10 over the last 12 months and they bought 16:12 a substantial amount in that time frame. 16:14 So good for them. Double their money in 16:17 12 years. Sorry, in 12 months and you 16:20 know should 10x their money in less than 16:22 10 years. So anyway, um that being said, 16:26 things are pretty quiet right now 16:27 because anytime Bitcoin's not doing 16:28 exciting up motions, everybody, you 16:31 know, seems like they immediately lose 16:32 interest because that's the same with 16:35 every investment. The moment it's not 16:37 going up, everybody's like, "Oh, it's 16:39 boring. It's boring." Every investment 16:41 is boring 99, you know, 95% of the time 16:45 and super exciting like 5% of the time. 16:48 I mean, the vast majority of the time, 16:50 Bitcoin is roughly the same price or 16:53 gone up a little bit or down a little 16:55 bit and then every few months you get 16:58 these two, three, four days in a row 17:00 where it goes up 10 or 20%. And that is 17:04 where the gains are. The gains are in a 17:06 very small number of days, you know, 17:08 every quarter, every other quarter. I 17:10 mean, it's just you've got to be you've 17:12 got to own as much Bitcoin as you can 17:14 when those gains happen because what 17:16 everybody does is they're like, "I'll 17:18 wait and see if Bitcoin's the real 17:19 deal." And then it goes up 20%. And 17:22 they're like, "Okay." Then they buy it. 17:23 And then they're like, "Okay, but now 17:25 I'm underwater." And it's like, "Well, 17:27 you could have been up 20%." But they're 17:29 not up 20% because they actually didn't 17:31 buy during that chop solidation when it 17:34 was on sale. So, I think Bitcoin's on 17:36 sale right now. Uh, but a lot of people 17:38 are going to wait for the next huge 17:39 price rise before they pull the trigger 17:41 on their next trunch of Bitcoin 17:43 investment. In my opinion, they should 17:45 buy more right now. Uh, if you're having 17:47 trouble buying more Bitcoin because of 17:48 limits in Coinbase or River in the 17:50 amount that you can buy at one time, do 17:53 a wire transfer from a bank. Uh, your 17:56 bank will let you wire transfer. And 17:59 Coinbase and River both uh, give you 18:01 instructions on how to do that. and you 18:03 basically walk into your bank and you 18:04 say, "I want to wire X amount of money 18:07 uh to this and it's your account at 18:09 Coinbase or River." And that is 18:11 unlimited. There are no limits on the 18:13 amount of money that you can wire and 18:15 subsequently buy Bitcoin. Uh so there 18:18 are limits if you link a bank account. 18:20 There are limits especially if you use a 18:22 debit or a credit card. Those limits are 18:23 very low. Uh linking a bank account 18:25 typically works a lot better. Um, and 18:28 typically the limits are high enough if 18:30 you link a bank account for most people. 18:31 But if you need a higher amount than 18:33 your bank account limit, uh, then just 18:36 set up a uh or do a wire transfer, go to 18:39 your bank or go log into the mobile app 18:41 on your bank or whatever. Uh, but you 18:43 can also just go to a bank branch and 18:45 they can do a wire transfer to river or 18:48 coinbase and you can buy more Bitcoin. 18:49 So, uh, exciting times are ahead, I 18:52 believe, between now and the end of the 18:53 year for Bitcoin. It is just a matter of 18:55 time and it is just a matter matter of 18:57 patience and that is the case with every 19:00 single good investment that has ever 19:02 existed in the world. Have a great day 19:05 and a great week everyone.