How LONG will this BEAR MARKET last?!

How long will this Bitcoin bear market last? First of all, what is a bull and a bare market? A bull market is a market that is generally upbeat and optimistic where the price is generally going up. A bare market means the price is generally going sideways or down and the mood is pessimistic. Uh, you can remember bull and bear because bulls attack by throwing their horns up into the air and bears attack by slashing their claws down toward the ground. So, bull markets going up, bare markets going down. And the term bull and bear are used for stocks and bonds and commodities and you know everything. Bull and bare markets are optimistic going up or pessimistic and either grinding sideways or going down. Okay. So, we appear right now to be in a Bitcoin bare market. The mood is sour. The sentiment is dow. Everything is, you know, everybody's all pouty about the price, blah blah blah. And the the the peak of the price was on October 6 of 2025. First of all, it takes a while to identify a bare a bare market or a bull market because in the early stages, it doesn't feel like one. So, for the first month or two after, you know, October 6, it feels like it's going to go zoom right back up. So, it's not until the last couple weeks or really the last week or two that James Czech and others have said, "Okay, it's officially been three months since the peak. The price has dipped below 50% down. This sure looks like a a bare market." So, we're going to call it a bare market because James Czech is calling it a bare market, but he only started calling it a bare market within the last week or so. Okay, so assuming we're in a bare market, and if we like zoom from here to new all-time highs, people would say that wasn't really a bare market. But assuming that we're not going to do that uh tomorrow or today, then we're going to consider ourselves in a bare market. And the question is, how long does it last? Well, James Czech, who's my favorite Bitcoin analyst and really the only Bitcoin analyst I follow, uh there's other people who have really good insights from time to time, like Lynn Alden and others, but uh James Czech uh releases two newsletters a week, and he's got really just incredibly good analysis based entirely on human behavior. So all of his analysis is what is actually happening on the Bitcoin blockchain. So knowing that we can do a bunch of analysis uh or James Czech can do a bunch of analysis and tell us based on every price dip that Bitcoin has ever taken how long this bare market will last. So he in his most recent analysis which is really fantastically good. I posted a couple days ago maybe I guess Thursday probably I I posted a synopsis of his analysis um which was good but the actual thing is a lot more detailed. So anyway, he uses eight different models and analyzes with those eight different models every price draw down in Bitcoin's entire 17-year history. And he comes to the conclusion that the earliest that this bare market is going to not feel like a bare market anymore is probably March or April. Now, he also says there's a 60% chance that $60,000 was the low. The thing is that it's not going to not feel like a bare market until we're consistently trending up. You can still be in a bare market even if the price has gone the lowest it's ever going to go. So he says 60% chance 60,000 was the bottom. But that means we could have some time pain. What he calls time pain ahead of us. Time pain. There's price pain and time pain. Price pain is when the price is dropping and it makes you feel bad. Time pain is when the price is grinding sideways and you feel bad. The price is not actually getting worse. It's just grinding and that grinding is making you feel bad. That's called time pain. According to James Czech, we have until probably at a minimum the end of March or sometime in April uh would be the earliest. That's the fastest that Bitcoin has historically switched from a bare market back to a bull market using a bunch of methodologies. You know, whether you measure from the all-time high, all different ways of measuring. The earliest models have it in sort of end of end of March and April. The midpoint of various models puts grinding sideways until June and July. And there's a few outliers that are in August. And none of the models show anything beyond August. The only thing that is later than August is people who say the average uh bare market lasts a year from the peak to the trough. and they're measuring from October 6th and they're saying, "Well, we're not going to get, you know, we're not going to get the low the the end of the bare market till September because the last time it was October 6th, so therefore it'll last at least close to October 6th." Now, James Czech says, "Look, that that is a model based on nothing but a calendar, which is the least reliable model. It's not based on human behavior. It's not based on anything. So anybody saying September or October, we're going to grind sideways till September, October, is basing that on nothing but flipping through a calendar and counting days and just assuming that bare markets last for a year, which is again is not consistent with the historical patterns and all of that. So if you actually base it on human behavior and data, you're getting sort of earliest, you know, is late March or April. The latest is call it August and the midpoint is probably in the June July time frame. So what does that mean? It means you get time pain. P time pain is the price is grinding. It's feels like it's going nowhere. People are slowly getting off the bus. Other people are getting on the bus. enough people are getting on the bus to keep the price from dipping below 60,000, but it's just grinding. It's grinding. It's grinding. And heck, maybe it does drop below 60,000 into the 50s and then, you know, high 50s and then it bounces right back up into the 60s and everybody's like, "Well, that sucks." You know, this thing is over. Well, as soon as everybody con concludes it's over, you're done with the bare market because the only people left holding Bitcoin are committed investors, not tourists, uh, who are there for a quick buck. And once all those people get washed out, then it's back to a bull market. And then the tourists all pile in at the end of the next uh bull market and get washed out in the bare market again. That's why retail investors, which are everyday non-professional investors, that's why they lose so much money is because they're just horrible at piling into things when there's a euphoria because they're going up and then panicking and selling when they're going down or getting ground out by the by the time pain. The grinding sideways eventually gets them. They just can't take it anymore. They can't handle it and they bail out. And they usually bail out at right just exactly the wrong time. So, they'll buy Bitcoin on the way up in the 120s and they'll bail in the 60s and lose half their money. So, don't do that. You're not going to lose money on Bitcoin as long as you hold it. Uh, but people who are trying to trade it lose a ton of money and people who are trying to get too cute uh by, you know, only only being interested when they're uh when the price is high, those those people tend to capitulate at the bottoms and lose money. So, uh here we are. It's, you know, middle of February and we've got, let's call it, four to six weeks minimum of probably grinding sideways and, you know, could be longer, could be a few months, uh, probably not more than, you know, than August sometimes. And, you know, then Bitcoin will feel good again. It'll climb up. It'll make everyone happy. They'll all wish they had bought more, just like they always do. Happens every time. Everybody wishes they had bought more. But, uh, here we are. It's time. It's grinding. It's brutal. It is what it is. Every stock goes through this at some point. Even the Magnificent Seven stocks, the seven best performing stocks of the last couple decades, did the same thing. They went through bare markets of that stock where they had to grind sideways or down for a series of months or even years in some cases. And you had to hold through that. That's just investing. It's painful, but it's part of the it's part of it's just frankly part of investing. If you want high returns, you got to grind through the the the bare markets and the and the time pain. So, that's where we are. Go read the summary I posted two days ago from James Czech if you're interested. Uh anyway, let me know if you have questions. I'm here to help you every step of the way. Thanks.