How LOW and for HOW LONG is the bitcoin BEAR market?

How low and for how long is this Bitcoin bare market likely to last? Okay, first of all, what's a bare market? A bare market is a down or pessimistic market, which is means the price are below average and they seem to be suppressed. They just, you know, it's like in a the doldrums you could call it. Okay, so that's what a bare market is. Um, you can remember bare markets and bull markets because bulls attack with their horns going up. Bears attack with their claws slashing down. So in all markets they use the term uh bull and bear. Bull meaning optimistic and up uh which means the prices are high. Bear means pessimistic and down which means the prices are low. Bitcoin is in a bare market. It is the fifth bare market in Bitcoin's 17-year lifespan. The first was in 2012. The second was in 2014. The third was in 2018. The fourth was in 2022. And here we are with the fifth which started at the end of 2025 as the market started going down but here we are and it looks like the bottom has been or will be in 2026. Okay, so that is a bare market. So why do bare markets happen? Bare markets happen because every asset at times goes in and out of favor and Bitcoin is out of favor right now and that typically lasts for a period of months. It happens to all stocks you know Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google and uh you know Facebook like the seven highest performing stocks of all time. They go through periods like this commodities, gold, silver, wheat, corn, uh precious metals, uh gold and silver. Everything goes through bears bare markets. Even uh real estate back in 2008 2009 uh the real estate market uh for individual houses went through a bare market. So those are normal. Okay. So we're in the fifth bare market. So how low could it go? Well, first back on February 5th, we went as low as 60,00060 $60,000. So was that the bottom of this Bitcoin bare market? Of course, we don't know. James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, would say either that was the bottom or at some point in the next four to six months, we will see one last very quick, very aggressive down uh you know uh I guess downswing to somewhere between 54,000 and 59,000. 54 and 59. Now, that is not guaranteed to happen. Perhaps that's not even likely to happen. But if we get a downstroke, he estimates that that would be the range when it would land. Now, that's important because you have people on Twitter who don't know anything saying the price is going to 40,000 or 45,000 or whatever. And James Czech says, "Look, if you look at historical averages for how far below the average trend line Bitcoin's price goes, if somebody thinks it's going to 45,000, they literally think that the price is going to correct comparable to 2011." Literally 2011 when the price was $2 coming off the 2011 high into 2012 when the price hit $2. He's like, "Seriously, are you building your strategy based on the fact that something that has not happened since 2011 for 15 solid years back when Bitcoin was $2? You literally think that sort of big swing down is going to happen again." Which is why James Czech says, "No, it's not going that low. If it goes lower than 60,000, which there's no guarantee it will. If it goes lower than 60,000, his estimation is the 54 to 59 is probably the lowest it goes." Now, he would also say, "Do not wait for 54,000 or 59,000 or 57,000." He would say, "Don't wait for any of those prices because first, there's no guarantee there will be a final capitulation event, meaning when the last of the people holding on who just can't stomach the volatility all capitulate, meaning they give up, they throw in the towel and walk away at the same time." There's no guarantee that will happen, although sometimes it does happen. if it happens. He anticipates that that capitulation event, if it undercuts 60,000, would land somewhere in the 54 to 59,000 range. Again, that's a low probability event. Maybe the the probability that it goes down that low is only 5% or 10%. But if it does happen, he anticipates that bottom. It's called a bottom wick. The wick is like uh on a 24-hour basis. It's how low the price got within a 24-h hour period, even if it did not start or end the day that way. So uh Bitcoin stock well all markets are measured uh from GMT greenwich uh meantime which is either depending on the time of of the year it's either 6:00 p.m. or 7:00 p.m. Central time. So um so obviously if the wee hours of the night when it's daytime in Asia the price goes from you know 63,000 down to 58 and then back up to 63 and you wake up in the morning and it started you went to bed and it was 63 and you woke up when it's 63. Did it really go to 58 for you? I mean literally you didn't buy any Bitcoin. You didn't sell any Bitcoin. You didn't actually do anything. It just while you were sleeping went down $4,000 $5,000 and then came right back up. That's what a wick is called. A wick is something that's just it's so the wick of a candle. The candle is like what bit Bitcoin's price did in a day. The wick is what it did in the middle throughout the day, but not where it started or where it ended. The wick is just the uh sort of very temporary. So anyway, so he says if there is a wick below 60,000, he doesn't believe it will go below uh the range of 54 to 59. Uh, and again, and he thinks people who are calling for anything lower on Twitter are just factoring in probabilities of events that are very low. He's like, look, it doesn't mean it can't happen, but you're just banking on a, you know, a 1% probability event or a 0.5% probability of event. And anytime you're you're you're planning on something that's never happened before, or you're planning on a probability that's so low, it's like low single digits or even less than 1%. He's like, that's just a stupid plan. Don't ever build your plan around something that has a ridiculously low probability of happening. Um, so and James Czech would also say just look, don't try to buy the bottom wick because you're going to be waiting around for 56,000 and the bottom will be 57 or you'll be waiting around for 59 and the bottom will be 61 and you're going to miss it. Everybody misses the wicks. Don't try to get the wick. He says, don't try to get the bottom the bottom tick, the bottom wick. Buy them all. Buy the bottom at 67. Buy the bottom at 69. Buy the bottom at 64. Buy the bottom at 71. Buy the bottom at 63. Just buy all the bottoms. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can below 75,000. Just period. Just buy them all. And because you can't judge the bottom and in the long term, it won't matter if you bought it at 61 or 72 or 59. Like all these prices are going to look ridiculously on sale in the future. Back when I was buying Bitcoin originally, the lowest Bitcoin price I ever paid was 6,400. That was the lowest it got when I was in accumulation mode. And then I chickenened out and I didn't buy anymore because below 60 thou 6,400 I chickened out. I did not have time to read about Bitcoin and I thought, uhoh, maybe something's wrong with it. Maybe it's going to go a lot lower and I just don't want to find out. Now, the truth is it did go lower. It went down to, you know, 3,200 and I could have bought a ton of Bitcoin cheaper than 6,400. Now, I did not sell any Bitcoin, so good for me. I didn't actually sell any Bitcoin. I just stopped accumulating when it dropped to 6,400 even though I had told myself I was going to buy a lot more if it dropped to 4,500 and uh and it went to 4,500 but I chickenened out and didn't buy anymore. So, you know, shame on me. Uh so anyway, um all that to say uh in the long term, you are not going to care whether you paid 59 or 54 or 61 or 72. All of those numbers in the long term are going to seem like ridiculously cheap prices for Bitcoin. And I promise you are not going to care. Okay? So, we could go lower. There's a good chance we won't. There's some chance that today's price is the lowest we ever go. That, you know, the price starts to rise. The Clarity Act that is moving its way through Washington DC will become law. You know, the Morgan Stanley ETF goes live and the price just starts to climb and today's price is the lowest we ever see. There's absolutely a possibility that that is what our future holds. Um, there's also a good chance that that's not what our future holds and that it goes lower than today. We just don't know. Nobody knows. Not James Czech, not Lynon Alden, not uh Jack Morers, not Michael Sailor. Nobody knows what the price is going to be tomorrow, next week, next month. Nobody knows. Okay. So, how long will the price be low? We've talked about how low could it go. James Czech says probably not below 54 to 59 if it even goes that low at all. And it might not go that low at all. Maybe we've already had the low back on February 5th at 60,000 and maybe today's the low at 67,000 and we don't know. Nobody knows. But how long do we have to grind around in the 60,000s to low 70,000s? Uh James Czech would say the likelihood is somewhere between uh May and August. Now it could happen as early as today or it could be in the past. It could be that the lowest Bitcoin will ever go was February 5th at 60,000. That could be the low. We could look back and everybody will say, "Didn't you feel great about Bitcoin all of March and all of April?" Because you were in a a bull market. It was actually going up. And the answer is no, because you thought it was going to go back down. Uh so bull markets feel like bare markets until the price breaks significantly above the bottom because until then everybody thinks it's going back down. So, I remember back in 2022, the bottom was 15,500 and then the price went to 16, then it went to 17. Nobody nobody thought we were done. Everybody was so they were so demoralized by the up and down and up and down and up and down between 15,500 and 17,000 or 18,000 that it just wore everybody out. I mean, they just people were just capitulating all over the place because they just couldn't stand it anymore. And so the first time when it when it actually was done after FTX blew up which nobody anticipated and that's what actually dragged it as low as 15,500 was FTX blowing up and S Sam Bankman freed you know going to prison. So after that happened um it's called the you know the the uh disbelief rally right so the price chart starts to climb but nobody believes it's real. They see 16 they see 17 they see 18 all the way up into the 20,000s. But if you ask somebody at 22,000, do they feel good about Bitcoin? Most of them would have said no, because it's probably going to go back below 15. And even though months had gone by since it was that low, they didn't know that that was the lowest it was ever going to be. They didn't know that they were marching from 15,500 to 126. For all they knew, we were going up to 12, you know, to 22,000, then back down to 19, and then just march all the way back down. Painful, painful, painful. So, we could be in that situation right now where we've already set the low on February 5th at 60,000. We could be in a bull market. We just don't know it yet because everybody thinks it's going lower. And you know, and if it never does, then the truth is the start of this bull market will be measured from February 5th. And it means everybody in retrospect is going to ask you how great you felt this whole bull market. You know, all of March, all you know, most of February, all of March, April, and you're going to say, "No, it sucked." because everybody thought it was going to go lower even if it never does. So anyway, we could be in that situation. Uh so anyway um but James check says look if you look at every Bitcoin bare market if you look at other you know asset bare markets if you you know look at all the different determinants of time he's like look the uh you know if you if you graph that into a bell chart the average time if you measure from the market high of October 6 of last year at 126,000 and then the big drop off in price that happened on October 10th and then another big drop off in whatever it was November and then the final one in February. He's like, look, if you look at all the 17-year history of Bitcoin, and you overlay every bare market and every significant market downturn, even that wasn't a bare market, uh, you typically get the bottom has happened and the recovery is underway. Sort of the sweet spot of that bell curve is between May and August of this year. Now, again, things happen early. In the case of the all-time high at 126, that was the earliest the all-time high had happened after an all-time low. So again, you know, things are constantly, you know, breaking the norm. But there's, you know, if you look at the averages, he would say, look, if you look at 2012, if you look at 2014, 20 uh 18, 2022, the greatest likelihood is that we are out of this bare market sometime between May and August. Uh again on the on the tail end could have happened in the past could have happened today and on the other tail end could be September but nobody believes it's longer than 12 months. None of the past bare markets took longer than 12 months. Meaning nobody literally even the most bearish people are not forecasting that this bare market lasts longer than October 6 of this year. which is why again the really out the outside possibility as the longest term end is really September because again nobody thinks it's going to make it till October 6. If it does it's probably because we're in World War II or a massive worldwide recession that doesn't have anything to do with Bitcoin. It's just you know the entire market is getting blown up by everything and people are freaking out and selling everything even if it doesn't make sense to sell everything. So uh so anyway so that's why James check says look even the most bearish people are not planning they do not think this bare market lasts until October 6 and most of them don't think it lasts until September and so as soon as everybody thinks everyone else thinks the Bitcoin bare market is over nobody wants to get left behind so everybody starts jumping you know jumping in with more money to try to catch the upswing that's why again if you look at past Bitcoin bare markets the highest probability is sometime between May and August with the outliers being April or earlier, which is where we are, or you know, a month past August, which is September. But again, nobody thinks we're going to October, uh, based on historical patterns. So, um, what do you do with that information? Well, same advice as always, buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Understand that there either was a bottom and 60,000 was it or there will be a bottom and the high 50,000s will be it. But who cares if the bottom was 60,000 or 59,000 or if you're buying it at 67,000. It's stupid to try to guess and it's stupid to wait. Um unless you're using leverage. If you're using a borrowed money from a 401k or if you're using a Bitcoin backed loan, okay, sure. If you're using borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, then yes, it does make sense to try to get the cheapest possible Bitcoin or to just not take out the loan at all. So, if I had a FIT 401k loan or if I had, you know, I do have the ability to do Bitcoin back loans and I would not do Bitcoin back loans unless it sets a new all-time low because again, my logic is I don't want to be in debt. I don't want to buy Bitcoin with borrowed money, which means you got to give me a ridiculous price I haven't seen before this entire cycle, which would be below 60 before I would deploy money with a Bitcoin backed loan because again, that's not my money. It's borrowed money. But if it's your money, I would not wait. I would buy Bitcoin right now. If it's borrowed money, well, again, use your best judgment. Uh if it was a 401k loan, I'd probably still just buy it right now. But again, I'm just very conservative when it comes to debt. Uh because I feel like, you know, I just you have to be very conservative with regard to debt. Uh so anyway, uh this bull this bare market will end. A bull market of probably at least three or four years or much longer will follow it. Uh bull markets are where you know everybody feels amazing for three years in a row after six to 12 months of things sucking and things have been sucking since October 6 of last year. So that's all of October, November, December, sorry, October, November, December, January, February, March. So it's already been six months. It's already been six months that the price has sucked. And so we're more than halfway there. And hopefully sometime between next month and August, uh, everybody will agree we're out of the bare market and things will be fine again. And in the meantime, buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Bare markets are normal. This one is much less bad than any prior bare market. So if you, you know, if you think this is bad, just be glad you got in after 2022, not before, because the 2022 bare market was much longer, much deeper, and much more brutal than this one. So, Bitcoin is just a much more m mature asset now as compared to the past because we have Bitcoin ETFs and a lot of institutional buyers and investment banks and hedge funds and all that buying Bitcoin that we did not have back then. It was much more uh the whims of the average retail investor which tends to be quite fickle uh much more so than institutional investors. So, uh this is temporary. When we emerge from this bare market in the coming days, weeks, or months, you will wish you had bought a lot more Bitcoin than you currently have because everyone feels that way. And you can fix that by buying more Bitcoin right now and holding on to it for as long as conceivably possible, which is the singular advice that has never been wrong for the entire 17-year history of Bitcoin. And it is only a matter of time until you, yes, you wish you had bought a lot more Bitcoin right now in this current bare market. That's what everybody wishes they had done, including me back in 2018 and 2019 and 2020. I wish I had bought way more Bitcoin that I did instead of all the Bitcoin I bought in 2021 and forward. So, here to help if you I can be of assistance, but same advice as always. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can, hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. You will be glad you did. I guarantee it.