Is $95,000 the “Bull’s Last Stand?”

the bull's last stand. And why does James Czech use that terminology referring to the $95,000 level? And how low could Bitcoin go if it breaks $95,000. All right, let's unpack that. First of all, James Czech is my favorite Bitcoin analyst. I subscribe to $29 a month. It's the only analyst I subscribe to. I find his information very helpful. Not very helpful because it predicts exactly what's going to happen, but very helpful because it explains why what is happening is happening, which gives you a lot more comfort when you understand why it's happening. It's like having a personal weatherman there telling you what storm you're in, how big it is, how long it might last. You know, it's just it's just a lot better than being in a storm and having no idea is this a hurricane, is this, you know, a thunderstorm? Like, what am I even in? So again, James Czech can't always predict the weather, but he can generally tell you why we're experiencing what we're experiencing, how long it might last, things like that. So James Czech has been referring to $95,000 as the bull's last stand for a while now, for like probably the last two months. And the reason he says that is because if you look at the entire trading history of Bitcoin, there's a pretty big gap between $80,000 and $95,000 where very few people have actually traded or bought or sold Bitcoin in that gap. What that means is last year in 2024 after the presidential election there was a pretty strong run from about 95,000 sorry from 75,000 up to $90,000 or 95 let's call it 75 to95 that happened very quickly. Very pe very few people actually had time to transact in that $80,000 to $95,000 range because Bitcoin just wasn't there very long. I mean, in a matter of hours and days, it shot straight through that level. Now, it revisited that level down to about $75,000 a little bit in April of 2025. So, after the tariff tantrum where all the stock market and everything else went crazy for a little while, Bitcoin dipped down to just under $74,000 for like five minutes. It was very short-lived and then it, you know, went on a big run back up to all-time highs again. But so we we spent a little bit more time in that $80,000 to $95,000 level. We spent a little bit more time in there with some trading activity, but not a lot. So if you look at all the times that Bitcoin has traded hands, it's there's not a lot of activity between 80,000 and 95,000. And what that means is we don't have credible evidence that there is a ton of people who want to buy Bitcoin between 80,000 and 95,000. And the reason we don't have that is because Bitcoin spent so little time in that range that there just literally wasn't any time for Bitcoin to spend any time trading in that range. So we don't have proof that people want a bunch of 80 to $95,000 Bitcoin because Bitcoin spent so little time there that we just don't have that evidence. So that is uh causes from time to time what's called an air pocket. An air pocket is a is a a range where an asset, it doesn't have to be Bitcoin, it could be gold, silver, soybeans, you know, stocks, whatever. It doesn't matter what it is. Anytime you have uh a a a asset that has spent very little time in a specific range, it creates an air pocket. One second. So sometimes, not always, when an asset creates an air pocket like that, it ends up filling in that air pocket later. meaning spending some quality time in that air pocket. Now, the problem is, of course, you don't know that's going to happen, and there are a lot of air pockets that go unfilled, meaning the the market never goes and revisits those. So, you can't rely on it. But James Czech has been saying for a while now that if we definitively break below $95,000, we're probably going to revisit, you know, the 80,000sish. Now, here's a couple problems there, and I'm going to tell you why my recommendation does not change based on all of this in just a minute. So, the problem with that paradigm of definitively break is what does that even mean? And even James Czech would say he there's there's not a good definition of what does it mean to definitively break below $95,000. Does that mean five minutes? No. Does that mean a day? Does it mean a week? Does this mean it spends a month underneath 95? It's not clear. It's just that if if it becomes clear that we're below $95,000 and it looks like we might be there a while, then what happens is we are in a range where we don't have a lot of historical evidence that people want to buy Bitcoin in that range. We have a lot of historical evidence that they want to buy Bitcoin 95,000 and up and a bunch of historical evidence that they want to buy Bitcoin 80,000 and down. We just don't have a lot of Bitcoin spent not much of its life between the so-called ages of uh 80 and 95. It just zipped right through that period. Um which means again when you hit that air pocket, James Czech is saying, "Hey, look, if we definitively break below $95,000, there's a good chance we could touch 80,000." And the reason for that is because there's just not a lot of trading activity between 80 and 95 historically. That does not mean there won't be now, but there has not been historically. And it's hard to it's hard to have high conviction that you know there that the uh that the price is not going to drop further when we just don't have the historical data. Now, you might be thinking, hey, if there's an air pocket that James Czech has been talking about for a month or two now, uh between 80 and 95, why don't we all just wait to buy Bitcoin at 80,000? Well, the problem is there's no way of knowing if it's going to go down there. Even James Czech would have said, you know, his odds historically have been 7030 that we never visit that and it goes just straight up. So, you certainly do not want to bet on the 30% side of a 7030 bet when even James Czech himself is saying if we definitively break below $95,000, we're probably headed into the 80s and even the low 80s. You don't want to bet on that because again historically the exact same times James Czech has been saying that he's also been saying that there's a 70% chance we won't touch any of those numbers and we won't break below 95 at all. So again it just makes no sense. Secondly, you can never win by picking a number where an asset has to go down that low. If I gave you advice and nothing I give you, it's never financial advice, never investment advice, tax advice, legal advice. Nothing I give you is ever advice. This is all just one random person's opinion. So, if I tried to tell you what is everybody going to predict is going to happen, then back in 2022, I would have told you don't buy Bitcoin until the price hits 13,800. Now, why was that? because practically everybody on Twitter with all these different economic models had all figured out that the magic number where everybody should buy Bitcoin was 13,800 and that the price of Bitcoin was going to keep dropping until it hit 13,800. We never hit 13,800. The lowest price Bitcoin ever went in 2022 was 15,500. thousands of dollars higher than 13,800 or at least whatever, you know, $1,700 higher, whatever that whatever that is. Um, so we never hit that number. So the smart people like me were gobbling up as much Bitcoin as we possibly could at 20,000, 19,000, 15,000, your, you know, 15,000, 16,000, um, or high 15,000s. We never got into the low 15,000s. All of the numbers down there, I was buying at all of them. I was buying in the 20,000s, the 30,000s, the the high teens. I was buying as much Bitcoin as I could because I knew that nobody knew that the price was going to hit some number or not hit some number. So, if I told you right now, I was like, "Look, if we definitively break below $95,000, we're going to hit 80." Nobody knows that. James Czech doesn't know that. Nobody knows that. James Czech's job is just to say, "Look, if that happens, you need to know why it happened." Just like a weatherman is saying, "Look, if the temperature drops suddenly tomorrow, it's probably because we got hit by a cold front." That way, when the temperature drops, you don't have to wonder what happened. You need to know that, hey, a cold front might come through tomorrow. If it does, temperature is going to drop. You know, it's a change in the pressure. It's all this other stuff. like don't freak out, it's normal. So the same way James check and everybody else for that's a Bitcoin analyst says look if we definitively break below $95,000 whatever that means is that days is that weeks is months I don't know whatever if we definitively break break below 95,000 we could revisit below 80,000s or somewhere in the 80,000s again we don't know that and everybody who comes up with these numbers that they're going to wait and buy when it hits a certain number somehow they get cheated out of the Bitcoin because they cheat themselves out of the Bitcoin because it doesn't hit that number because as soon as everybody thinks like let's assume let's assume James Czech was the perfect predictor of the future and he put out on his newsletter that if we definitively break below you know $95,000 that we're going to hit $80,000 and that's the magic number. Well, guess what happens? Everybody's going to say, "Hey, if everybody's expecting to buy at $80,000, I don't want to miss out. So, I'll set my buy at $81,000. Now, someone else is going to think if everybody else is thinking they're going to frontr run that 80,000 by buying at 81,000, then I'm going to buy at 82,000 so I don't miss out. Well, eventually what happens is everybody bids that number right back up until the till you never hit 80,000 because everybody's trying to frontr run that number making sure that they're not the last one who gets left out. And so, that's why the price goes higher. It's the reason in every marketplace supply and demand works the way it does because everybody in a marketplace who wants to buy something could just wait for a cheaper price. And the reason they don't wait for a cheaper price is they're afraid they're not going to get the cheaper price or they just have a need for whatever it is right now and they don't have the luxury of time. With investing like Bitcoin, you could always sit in US dollars and watch your purchasing power disappear by between 4% and 9% per year. So yeah, you could be p, you know, so-called patient watching your purchasing power deteriorate in the US dollar. And in doing so, you could wait for a cheaper Bitcoin price. But if everybody's doing that, everybody's trying to frontr run you to make sure that they're not the one who doesn't get the cheap Bitcoin, which then pushes the price of Bitcoin up. Same if you're selling Bitcoin and you're like, I'm going to wait for a higher price. The reason people capitulate and just sell anyway is they become afraid that their higher price is not going to come. That other people are going to be willing to take a lower price than they do and that they're going to be sitting wanting to sell something that they can't sell because they got too greedy wanting a higher price. So the magic of the marketplace is that supply and demand always balance that way. that everybody trying to front run on the downside and front run on the upside and make sure they don't miss out. It all balances out with a price right now of 95,500, which was the price of Bitcoin when I started this video, 95,500. The reason it's not lower is there's too many people who want Bitcoin who are not willing to risk that it won't go lower. The reason it's not higher, there are too many people willing to sell Bitcoin that don't want to risk that it won't go higher. That's supply and demand. And it works that way for every stock, every bond, every commodity, gold, silver, you know, soybeans, rice, corn. It works that way for all of them. Everybody is buying and selling based on that. And supply and demand always determines where that midpoint is. So I am waiting for a significant wire transfer in the six figures. A six figure wire transfer from SD Bullion because I shipped them last week. a bunch of gold, not a bunch, but a small amount of gold and silver I had left over from 2017. And it turns out I had bought more than I remembered buying back in 2017. And although it's massively underperform Bitcoin, it has gone up in value enough to push it into the six figures. So, I'm waiting for a six figure wire transfer from SD Bullion. They said it might come in today, but you know, the traditional financial system, I don't think it is. I think it's going to end up being Monday. Nobody knows. But anyway, as soon as that wire transfer hits from SD Bullion, I am going to buy Bitcoin with it. Absolutely. No matter the price, even if the price is $94,000, which is $1,000 below the bull's last stand of $95,000, even if it's 94, I'm going to buy it. Am I going to wait for $80,000? No. Because I'm not an idiot. And I'm smart enough to know that nobody knows the future. James Czech, while he's the best best weatherman in the world of Bitcoin to tell you what might happen and the probabilities and all of that, he doesn't know. Just like no weatherman knows. And and look, if I were going to, I don't know, camp, you know, in a the frozen tundra somewhere and I was worried about rain, then I would bring an umbrella. And if somebody was like, well, you know, there's a 70% chance it's not going to rain. It's like, yeah, there's a 30% chance I freeze to death. I'm not going to risk that. So, it makes no sense in my opinion when Bitcoin is almost guaranteed to go up by a factor of 10, which is a th000%. It makes no sense when the upside is a,000% to try to capture another 15% on the downside so that your upside percent is a little bit more than a,000%. Your odd the odds are absolutely stacked against you. If you're trying to time the market by waiting for a lower price, you're like, "Okay, I'm just going to pass on this thousand% gain almost guaranteed over the next 10 years. I'm going to pass on that thousand% gain in the hopes I can buy Bitcoin $10,000 cheaper than today's price." That is idiotic math. you plug go plug that into Chad GPT and anything and and ask them, hey, what percent chance should I be willing to take to give up a thousand% upside to try to get $80,000 Bitcoin instead of $95,000 Bitcoin? And if you feed it the entire price history of Bitcoin, it's going to say, "You're an idiot. Buy the Bitcoin." because it's going to tell you the probability that Bitcoin drops by another 15% when it's already down 25% is way lower than it would have to be to make economic sense for you to play that game. And whatever that threshold is, and I posted a bunch of them online uh earlier this week or last week of like this is how certain you would have to be for that to happen in order to feel comfortable doing that. And the odds are just completely not in your favor. So, what am I going to do? Even though I subscribe to James Czech, I'm, you know, I read about his, you know, bull's last stand, $95,000. What does it mean to definitively break below that level? All of that. What am I going to do? I'm going to buy as much Bitcoin as I possibly could, as soon as I can, and I'm going to sit on it for as long as conceivably possible, because that is the only way to win. You're not going to win by trying to time the market. You're not going to win by trying to pick pick magic thresholds. That's your perfect buying opportunity. And look, if you can't stomach just buying, then set up a recurring buy, which is called dollar cost averaging, DCA. Dollar cost averaging. Set up a recurring buy that just buys you the same amount. $100, $1,000, $5,000, however much. Buy the same amount per week. Maybe it's 50 bucks, maybe it's $10. Buy the same amount every week and just leave it on indefinitely. If that's how if that makes you feel more comfortable, go for it. What am I going to do? I'm going to buy as much Bitcoin as I possibly can as fast as conceivably possible because that is the only way historically that you end up with a lot of Bitcoin when all the the dust settles. It's the only way I've ended up with a lot of Bitcoin when the dust settles. So summary here, the summary is James Czech has said $95,000 is the bull's last stand. If we definitively break below $95,000, we could drop to $80,000. But what does definitively break below that mean? It's hard to tell. Nobody knows. And the odds are absolutely against you magically picking up a number and deciding you're going to buy Bitcoin at that number because you're either not going to do it or it's never going to hit that number and you're going to look back and you're going to think, I could have bought Bitcoin at 95,500 and I didn't. And everybody that's played that game ends up regretting it. Don't play that game. It's simple. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can as soon as possible. it's massively on sale right now and hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. That is the only definitive formula with Bitcoin or any other asset that if you buy the right assets and Bitcoin is that's the only definitive strategy that works.