Is there an 84% chance that bitcoin drops to $80,000?

Is there an 84% chance that Bitcoin will drop down to $80,000 per coin? I don't think so. But why is 84% the magic number? Well, with any investment, there's probabilities. And you can actually plug the statistical probabilities of Bitcoin into ChatGpt or any other AI engine, and it will tell you the probabilities that something would need to happen in order for it to make economic sense to do that thing. So, I just asked ChatGPT. I uploaded the entire price history of Bitcoin and said when Bitcoin is down as much as it is down now from the all-time high, which is about 25%, 24.6 or 24.8%. When it's down, let's call it 25% from the all-time high, what is the probability it drops an additional 16%. Which is what it would need to to hit $80,000. Now, the way chap GPT calculates that, if it does drop that far, it calculates in the benefit of buying Bitcoin for cheaper. So between here and a million dollars, instead of a 10x upside, you get like a 12.5x upside because you're buying Bitcoin at $80,000 and it goes to a million rather than buying it at $95,000 and it goes to a million. So if you buy it cheaper, there's a larger economic upside. But the probability of it hitting that has to be very high in order to be worth giving up that potential economic upside. Because if you're wrong, you miss out on 10 times your money. the gain from 95,000 to a million, you miss up on miss out on 100% of that if you guess wrong. So according to chat GPT, the probability that Bitcoin would need to hit 80 $80,000 um would need to be 84% or more. They said, "Look, purely from an economic, you know, analysis perspective, if you had greater than 84% certainty that Bitcoin is going to hit $80,000 before it goes to a million, then you economically would wait. The probability of Bitcoin actually hitting $80,000. Of course, nobody knows, but it is a radically smaller number than $80,000. For example, if you look at the last three years, Bitcoin has never been down 25% and gone on to to go down an additional 15%. Never. That's never happened in the last 3 years. You have to go back to four years or 5 years or even farther back in Bitcoin's history to find any situation where Bitcoin has been down 25% and then has additionally dropped an additional 15%. You have to go way back before the exchange traded funds, the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, way back to the early days of Bitcoin where the volatility was much higher. And even if you include all of those early days with much higher volatility, much uh greater downswings than exist today, even if you include all of that, the probability that Bitcoin would go down an additional 16% once it's already down 25% is radically lower than 84%. Even if you include all of that original data, I would argue you should not include any data prior to the Bitcoin exchange traded funds approving in April of uh sorry in January of 2024, which is about 2 years ago. Because prior to that, you didn't have this massive amount of institutional demand from nation states, companies, treasury companies buying up all the dips. You had basically just random people like me buying and selling Bitcoin. And that was a lot more volatile back then. So in today's economy, especially post the exchangeraded funds, Bitcoin is much less volatile, which means in the last 3 years, literally 0% chance. If you're betting on the data from the last 3 years, there is a 0% chance that Bitcoin has been down 25% and continues to drop by an additional 15%. Literally, that's happened zero times. Uh that's because we've we've had zero price corrections of 40%. 25% and an additional 15%. That's happened zero times. We've had two price corrections of about 32% each, maybe three 33% each, but that's it. So again, and even then, you didn't have the incredible institutional demand buying up every dip that you have right now. Even during the tariff tantrum in April of 2025 or the whatever it was that caused the dip in August of 2024, those dynamics are not in play today. Now, not that they couldn't become in play, but statistically it makes no sense to wait. So, last night I bought hundreds of thousands of dollars of Bitcoin as a result of gold and silver that I sold uh that I bought back in 2017 that I had just stored away a bunch of different places. And finally, I dragged it all out and I was like, screw this. If Bitcoin's on sale and it stays on sale long enough, I'm going to take it off the market because heck, I can spend the rest of my life giving away that Bitcoin for free to people, uh, supporting charities I care about, running political campaigns. I can do whatever I want with that extra Bitcoin. And if the marketplace is going to give me that Bitcoin for cheap, I will let the marketplace give me that Bitcoin for cheap. So, I ran the probabilities and there has to be an 84% chance that Bitcoin's going down to $80,000 for it to make economic sense to wait. Now, even if the probability was that high, I still would not wait because I'm not willing to give up the upside in exchange for possibly getting Bitcoin cheaper. I I would rather lock in a guaranteed 10.5% upside or sorry 10.5x upside to a million dollars than risk and gamble trying to get a 12.5% upside. If somebody gives me an almost guaranteed 10.5 times my money but says but if you wait you might lose it all but you might get 12 times your money. Screw that. I'm getting the 10.5x. That's huge. That's more than a,000% return. If somebody offers me a,000% return, I'm not waiting to get 1,200% return and then going to risk out on missing all of it. Especially if the probability that I'm going to fail is 84%. Or some, you know, ridiculously large number. Again, on 84% odds that it does uh that it would have to be that high. You know, that's that's just insane that the probability you get left out in the cold, especially when the probability over the last 3 years looks more like 0%. That has dropped a percentage that high. So that's why I'm buying Bitcoin now. I am not dollar cost averaging. I am not buying it over time. I am not easing into it. When I have capital availability, I buy Bitcoin. I think the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of buying as much as you can now, holding on to it for as long as conceivably possible and not playing games with trying to time it. If you play games with trying to time the market, you're going to lose. It always happens. And if you don't have the stomach to just buy it all up front like I'm doing right now, fine. You can dollar cost average by buying the same amount every week or something like that. Statistically speaking, you'll end up worse off. But at least you will buy the Bitcoin over some period of time. Whether that's a month or two months or however long you've decided to buy, you know, if you've got $10,000 you want to invest and you want to invest 1,000 a week for 10 weeks, well, at least at the end of that, you own the Bitcoin. You might own it at a price significantly higher than it is today, but at least you'll own the Bitcoin, which is way better than waiting for some magic number like $80,000 and then getting left out in the cold. So bottom line with all of this is unless there's an 84% chance that Bitcoin is Let me start over. Unless there's an 84% chance that Bitcoin goes to $80,000 per coin, you should buy it right now. If the probability is greater than 84% that it goes to $80,000, which it is not, then it makes sense to wait. The probability is much lower than 84%. Over the last 3 years, Bitcoin's never dipped that much. And even over the last four or five years or longer, the dips have statistically been radically less than 84%. Which means statistically it makes sense to buy as much Bitcoin as you can right now and hold on for to it for as long as conceivably possible. Which has been my same advice all along and that hasn't changed.