PROBABILITIES of bitcoin going LOWER vs HIGHER near term

Let's talk about probabilities Bitcoin goes higher versus lower from here in the near term. Of course, long-term we know it goes higher, but in the near term, let's talk about that and what are those probabilities. So, I posted a link with this video and the link is to a bunch of complicated mean reversion models. Okay, what is a mean reversion model? Well, let's assume you take any asset. Could be gold or silver, could be the Magnificent Seven stocks, it could be the S&P 500, could be anything. And you figure out that most of the time that price as it goes up and to the right, meaning it is always generally appreciating over a long period of time, but it follows some sort of pattern. Maybe the pattern is, you know, it it's always sort of above or below the 200E moving average a certain percent of the time. Maybe it's above or below the power law model. Maybe it's above or below a power uh a exponential growth curve. Um, and there's a bunch of different things. There's like a million different models. In fact, you can take any stock or any bond or any asset and try to figure out what is its historical behavior pattern and then try to figure out what's going to happen in the future based on that. Now, the problem of course is that history does not predict the the future. And as soon as you have a model that seems to predict exactly what something's going to do nearly perfectly, of course that asset suddenly does starts doing the opposite of whatever that is. That being said, it can still be helpful uh and it's still interesting to understand where an asset is compared to where it has been historically at different levels. Okay, so the link I posted was to a research report James Czech did where he picked nine different mean reversion models. That means nine different models that map relatively well to the history of Bitcoin. And from there you can figure out what Bitcoin might do in the future based on those models. And you can tell based on where we are the price is right now how much above or below that historical trend line. Now again we do not know that the future is going to mimic the past. And so this is you know this sort of research is only valuable so far. But you'll notice if you take a a look at the link I posted and you flip your phone into landscape view or if you look at it on a laptop, for some reason it does not show up properly if you're in uh horizont or if you're you're in vertical view in portrait view on your phone. But if your phone is in landscape or if it's uh you are looking at on a laptop, you will see that the bottom the number in the bottom right corner is 19.5. What that means is 19.5% of the time, Bitcoin has been below the relative price it is right now and 80.1% of the time, which is the other component up to 100%. Bitcoin is above the average price. So, one way to think about that is you walk into a clothing store and you say, "Hey, are y'all running any sales?" and the sales associate says, "Yeah, actually the prices in the store are only this cheap about 20% of the time." That's what that mean reversion model is telling you. The prices for Bitcoin right now at $70,400 are only this cheap less than 20% of the time. Now, the logical questions that immediately come from that is, well, is it going to get cheaper than it is now? And can I buy it when it's, you know, even cheaper? Well, the answer is you don't know because that's like walking into the store and the sales clerk says, "Oh, yeah, almost everything's on sale in the store. You know, things have only been cheaper 20% of the store's history than right now." Well, the question you want to ask is, "Yeah, but are you about to run some additional sales? Is everything about to get even cheaper than now? I.e., is Bitcoin about to go down from 70,400?" And of course, the sales clerk is going to tell you, "No, well, we don't know. We don't know what sales we're going to run in the in the future. All we know is that the the sales in the store right now result in everything being cheaper than they are all but 20% of the time. As in, you're in the the best 80% of time to shop at this store is right now because everything is marked down more so than 80% of the time. So, you're sort of in the best 20% of time to shop at this store. But that doesn't tell you that they're ever going to run another sale. For all you know, the prices that day in that store are the lowest they will ever be in history. You don't know. The sales associate can't tell you if the prices are going to get cheaper. Uh they can't tell you if uh when the sale is going to run next. So, we know Bitcoin is on sale now more so than 80% of the time per the video I just did. And that means we are in the bottom 20% of days. meaning 80% of the time Bitcoin is relatively more expensive to its trend lines historically and 20% of the time Bitcoin is cheaper. Now, here's the problem. Of course, we don't know if the time we have spent below the current price of $70,000 or so. We don't know if that's all the time we're going to spend below $70,000 this cycle. And if so, all the models would update and that would be that. or we don't know if we're going to spend some additional time below $70,000. Now, James Czech would say we have a period of chop solidation ahead of us, which is a combination of the word chop and a word consolidation. chop consolidation which is where an asset goes sideways for a series of months and it just basically shakes out everybody that is does not have strong conviction does not have strong hands and you know in a bare market as Warren Buffett says assets return to their rightful owners meaning people who don't know what they have bought they bought it too expensive they haven't researched Bitcoin they don't understand the future of money those people tend to capitulate by selling their Bitcoin and people with high conviction who have done the perk tend to buy the bitcoin from the people who are capitulating and that is a normal uh aspect of a bare market meaning a down market a pessimistic market of which all assets go through every asset that has ever become worth a lot of money at some point went through multiple bare markets along the way uh some of them many times and some of them for very long periods of time in the case of Bitcoin James Czech would say hey history would indicate we're probably going to be chopping sideways between 60,000 and 70,000, maybe a little below, maybe a little above, but in the general range of 60,000 to 70,000, he would say we're probably going to chop around here for some series of months. And during that period of time, uh, you know, a lot of people are going to get shaken out. Now, with mean reversion models, meaning historical models that tell you generally whether Bitcoin is priced above or below historical trend lines, right now the link I just posted at the time I clicked it said 19.5, meaning we are in the 19.5 quintile uh or I guess not quintile, but uh percentile is what I meant to say. 19.5 percentile. That means 19.5% of the time, Bitcoin is cheaper than today relative to historical trend lines. And 80.5% of the time, Bitcoin is more expensive than now relative to historical bit uh trend lines. Again, we don't know if all of those cheaper prices are already behind us or if some of them lay ahead of us. James Czech would say, "Yeah, we probably are going to spend more time, including potentially as many as a couple few months in the 60 to $70,000 range, but nobody knows. Something could happen to no tomorrow or as a result of people buying Bitcoin due to political uh uncertainty around the world. Bitcoin could shoot up from here and we never see a price lower than $70,000 ever again." Like, honestly, nobody knows. I don't know. Michael Sailor doesn't know. Lyn Alden doesn't know. Jack Morers doesn't know. James Tech doesn't know. Everybody's just dealing with best guesses based on historical patterns and probabilities and all of that. But anyway, going back to my clothing store analogy, if you walk into a store and they say, "Oh yeah, we're running a bunch of sales." Historically, we're running more sales today than we do 80% of the time. And which means, you know, everything is cheaper than all but 20% of the time of the store's entire history. That's generally a fantastic time to buy whatever's in the store. Now, you could get greedy and say, "Oh, but I want to buy when the when everything in the store is the cheapest it's ever been." Well, there's no guarantee that will ever happen because the cheapest things have ever been in that store could be in the past. And if you're waiting, if you check in every day with the sales clerk and say, "Hey, is everything in the store cheaper than it's ever been today?" There's a good chance that that will never happen at any point in the future. Or if you say, "Oh, but I'm going to be, you know, I'm going to wait until everything's on sale at the 10th percentile rather than the 20th." Meaning only 10% of the time has thing prices been cheaper. Again, you don't know. Maybe all of that is in the past. Now, for some numbers here, if you look at numbers, uh, at $70,000, roughly 20% of the time, Bitcoin is cheaper and 80% of the time it's more expensive based on historical trend lines, which means it's already fantastically on sale. And how long will that sale continue to last? Nobody knows. It could end literally today. It could end tomorrow. It could end, you know, four, five, six months from now. James Czech says generally the latest that we're likely to continue to have low prices is sometime like July of this year. Uh but again, nobody knows. Um all right. So going forward, um if when the price was at 60,60, the lowest it's ever been, that was a percentile of 10, meaning only 10% of Bitcoin's history had the price been below that relative value. And 90% of the time it was higher. if the price ever goes to 55,000 uh which it hasn't yet but if it you know anything could happen if it went to 55 at that point only 5% of days historically have ever been cheaper than that level so what's interesting of course on Twitter back when the price crashed to 60,000 everybody on Twitter and everybody on Facebook was saying it's going to 40,000 it's going to 30,000 you know morons are just like posting all sorts of stuff now as James Czech would say look anything can happen but if If you're waiting for a price of $50,000, you're waiting for a price that historically is in the bottom couple of, you know, one or two percentage points that the price has ever been. And we know that Bitcoin is less volatile over time. Meaning back in 2025 at when the price peaked at 126,000, it did not get as high as these models would have predicted. The same will probably be true on the downside, which is there's a good chance Bitcoin never goes below 60,000 and we already had the bottom of this bare market. Now, nobody knows that could not be the case. Literally, nobody knows. But what we do know is that people are who are waiting for 40,000 50,000 are statistically extremely unlikely to get it. Again, it's there's not a 0% chance, but if somebody walks in and you're like, "Hey, are you going to buy everything in the store because it's 80 or 90% off?" Again, you're kind of a fool if you're like, "No, I'm waiting for 95% off. I'm waiting for 99% off." And again, it's not that you can't get lucky, but the probability of you hitting that one right on is, you know, 1% 2% 5%. 5% for some of the cheaper prices again. So, historically, it does not make sense to wait for some, you know, when everything is on sale. Look, you can get greedy and say, you know, uh $70,000 Bitcoin is not cheap enough for me. I'm waiting for $60,000 Bitcoin. Okay, you might get it. You might not get it. It's awfully risky when you're trying to buy the number one highest performing asset of all time, which is likely to continue to be the case. Playing games like that, in my opinion, is super dumb. But you can do that. But again, you just got to understand if you're waiting for prices below 70, especially below 60, you are dealing with low probability events based on historical patterns and historical trend lines. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but as James Czech would say, when something is this on sale, you should buy it. If it dips more, buy that, too. If it grinds around up and down for three or four months, just buy it. Buy it and buy more of it. He says, don't try to time the bottom, buy all of the bottoms. That means the bottom at 70, the bottom at 65, the bottom at 68, the bottom at 72, all of these in the future will all look like bottoms. And you'll be glad with all of the Bitcoin you bought in any of these zones. And the only thing you'll be disappointed on is the Bitcoin you didn't buy because you were waiting for cheaper prices that never came. That is the big takeaway. So my advice is the same as always. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible.