Why price UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN…

Why is the Bitcoin price up and down and up and down and up and down and up and down? Well, it's called chopolidation, which is a combination of chop and consolidation. All assets do this from time to time. Sometimes they do it at the top of a price range. Sometimes they do it at the bottom of a price range. Back in 2024, we hit the all-time high in the middle of March uh at $74,000. First time Bitcoin had ever touched $74,000. And then we chopped between 55,000 and you know 68,000 for like eight months. Like eight months. Now thankfully that was sort of chopping right below the all-time high as opposed to what we're doing now which is chopping at the bottom of a bare market. But they happen for the same reasons. when there is a big price move. In the case of 2024, the price had ramped from 30,000 something up to 74,000 uh in a relatively short period of time in early 2024 uh right after the Bitcoin ETF's launch leading up to and then after the Bitcoin ETFs launched. And it's like a pig and a python. It takes a while for a python to digest a pig. So, you know, a python out in the wild catches and eats a wild boar and you got a pig and a python. Guess what? It's going to take weeks or months for that python to digest that pig and get hungry again. And during that time, you just got to wait. They're like, there's kind of nothing you can do. Another way to think about it is like an elevator. Everybody who owns Bitcoin is basically on the elevator. If you want to sell your Bitcoin, you're pushing the button that says I'm willing to go down to get off. If you're on if you want to get on the elevator or you want to you're on the elevator and you want to buy more Bitcoin. It's like pushing a button on the elevator that says we want to go up. Uh well, the problem is there's 400 million people on the elevator that own Bitcoin and some of them need Bitcoin for various reasons to buy things to improve the lives of themselves and their families. A bunch of those 400 million are accumulating more Bitcoin, but basically we have a price between, let's call it, you know, 65,000 and 72,000. So imagine each level of the elevator is $1,000 each floor. So people like me want to go up to floor 200, 250, whatever the top floor of this thing is, which in the long term is north of a million dollars. It's north of floor 1,00. But let's use, you know, smaller numbers. Let's just say, okay, I want to go up into the hundreds. You know, this is the Burj Khalifa, and I want to go to the very top of it um as soon as possible, right? Uh except Bitcoin's going to go way higher than the number of floors in the Burj Khalifa. I've been to the top of the Burj Khalifa, and it's only like 156 floors or something like that. So it's going to go way higher. uh way higher. But so let's say floor 200, pick a round number. I want to go to 200. A bunch of Bitcoiners want to go to 200, but there's a bunch of people that don't have the conviction to stay on the elevator. So every time somebody like me pushes the button and says, "Let's go up." And we go from floor, you know, 67 to 68 or 60, you know, 71 to 72, somebody on the elevator is saying, "Wow, it's not going up as fast as I thought. I'm getting scared. I'm getting, you know, shaken out by all this up and down. It's making my stomach turn. I want to get off. So, I push the button saying, "Let's go higher." Buying more Bitcoin. Somebody else says, "Flo 72. I'm off." And then the, you know, they push the button, it drops back down to floor 71. They get off. You know, more people push the button, it goes down to to floor 70, 69, 68, 67. Well, as it goes down, more and more people are like, "Wow, I can get on this elevator super cheap. 67 68 69,000 Bitcoin. I'll get on. So, a bunch of new people pile on and push the button going up and it goes up. And as it goes up, people are like, "Wow, you know, I bought Bitcoin at whatever, you know, some high price. I can finally get out at 72, 73, 74." And they get off and they push the button, it goes back down. And more people like me push the button, it goes back up. Now, why can't we just go up? Like, why can't we do a public service announcement that says, "Look, if you want to get off the elevator, get off the freaking elevator." Well, there's two problems with that. One, some people are only willing to get off at a higher price. So, as the price goes up, they say, "Look, I'm only willing to sell my Bitcoin at 71, 72, 73, whatever thousand." So, as we go up, they keep pushing the button to get off the elevator. Which makes the elevator because of, you know, you push you push get off, it goes down. You push I want more, get on, it goes up. So, some of those people are not willing to capitulate and sell their Bitcoin at current prices. So, even if you did a public service announcement and said, "Everyone, please, if you're going to sell Bitcoin in the next 6 months, go ahead and sell it. Get it over with so we can be done with this bare market." A lot of them would say, "Yeah, but I want 82,000. I want 60 whatever. I want 74,000." They want a number higher. But a lot of those people that are going to push the number to get off the elevator, they don't even know they're going to push the button. They think they have the conviction. They think they have the courage to stick out the Bitcoin bare market. But for a lot of those people, this is their first Bitcoin bare market. And each passing day that Bitcoin doesn't go up, uh they don't have somebody like me. They don't have a Bitcoin sherpa telling them nothing's wrong. This is normal. This is the fifth bare market. All everything's fine. Buy more Bitcoin. They don't have somebody like me. So, every passing day, they get a little more nervous. Maybe something's wrong with Bitcoin. Maybe, you know, this is maybe it's going to march down to zero. you know, maybe this is the first bare market and, you know, Bitcoin's run its course, maybe it's had its time in the limelight, maybe, you know, the end is near, blah, blah, blah. Right? And so, even if you did a public service announcement and everybody that was ever thinking they were ever going to sell Bitcoin, got off the elevator right now, guess what? If unless that happens right now, when the price starts going up, every passing day, there are new people that lose their conviction and want to get off the elevator. Now, we always eventually exhaust those people. There is a finite number of people with paper hands as opposed to diamond hands. There's a finite number of people that are going to capitulate, push the button, and get off the elevator. The problem is we don't know who all those people are and they don't know who all of those people are. So, there's a lot of people that are planning to hold through the bare market. They just don't know it's a bare market. They don't know what's going to bounce back. They're getting nervous. You know, they're positive. They can just sort of hang on. But with each passing day, it grinds them down a little more. Grinds them down. They don't have somebody like James Czech saying, "Hey, look, this is going to be over within a series of months. We've been here before. It's all fine." So, because they don't have that, they get, you know, bare markets. They wear you out and they scare you out. They scare you out with big price drops like down to 60,000, which scared out a bunch of people. And they wear you out with this just grind and grind and grind of people pushing the button on the elevator. More Bitcoin go up, want to get off, go down. More Bitcoin go up, want to go off, go down. And the price just goes up and down and up and down and up and down as supply and demand results in Bitcoin just changing hands. Tens of billions, 50 billion, 60 billion dollars of Bitcoin change hands every day by people who want to get on the elevator, off the elevator, on the elevator, off the elevator. And eventually what always happens is the number of people willing to sell eventually runs out. And when it runs out, first of all, it looks like the elevator's going up, and it looks like it's going to get pushed right back down by all those people who just keep pushing the down button, the get me off button, the get me out at any price button. And then you just break out like one day it just goes up 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 82, 85, 89, and then boom. Well, Bitcoin bare market's over. Hope you bought as much Bitcoin as you can because it's not on sale anymore. It always happens. It'll happen again. The buyers always exhaust the sellers because only about 5% of the world owns Bitcoin. So 95% of the world can still buy Bitcoin that doesn't own it at all. And most of the 5% who own Bitcoin own like 50 bucks or 200 bucks or some tiny amount. Which means the vast majority of Bitcoin current holders have infinitely more capacity to buy more Bitcoin than they have right now. Which means eventually the buyers always overwhelm the sellers. The sellers always eventually regret selling. The Bitcoin changes hands from weak hands to strong hands. The market goes up. Everything fine. Everyone's happy again. It's just markets. They all do this. Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate. It all does this. It just does it over longer time periods. And you can't watch it play out 247 the way you can with Bitcoin. But stay safe out there. Everything's fine. Elevators just going up and down. Python's digesting the pig. It's all gonna be fine.