QUESTION: Should I lump sum purchase bitcoin, or should I Dollar Cost Average (DCA) every week?

00:01 Hey everyone. A question I get often is, 00:04 "Is now still a good time to buy Bitcoin 00:06 at $104,000 per coin, or should I start 00:10 dollar cost averaging, DCA, which means 00:12 buying the same amount of uh US dollars 00:15 worth of Bitcoin every week? Uh, or 00:18 should I wait and just wait for lower 00:19 prices?" Of course, I never recommend 00:22 just waiting for lower prices. Uh, 00:24 Bitcoin has left behind millions of 00:26 people over the years who have waited 00:28 for lower prices. rel uh rather than 00:31 just you know jumping in. So uh that 00:34 being said um I'm officially going to 00:36 roll out with this video my 00:37 recommendation because I want to make 00:39 the recommendation in advance rather 00:41 than wait for you know the epic price 00:43 cycles that tend to get people to feel 00:46 all euphoric and all that sort of stuff. 00:47 So I've said before that below $110,000 00:52 per coin I'm recommending people just 00:54 buy whatever Bitcoin they're going to 00:55 buy. Just do it. close your eyes, hit 00:57 buy, and you know, so store it in a safe 01:01 place like Bit Key and just don't think 01:03 about it for years. Um, again, unless 01:05 you're buying so much Bitcoin that 01:06 you're using the Coinbased debit card to 01:08 buy stuff because it's your, you know, 01:10 primary source of money like me. Um, but 01:13 a lot of people are not there yet. 01:14 They're just using it as a long-term 01:16 savings and investment rather than a 01:19 daily spending money. Um, so anyway, um, 01:22 so below $110,000 per coin. Right now 01:25 we're at 104. So below 110. I just 01:28 think, you know, buy whatever you're 01:30 going to buy, hold on to as long as 01:31 conceivably possible. between $110,000 01:34 per coin and $120,000 per coin. I will 01:37 probably I haven't committed to this, 01:39 but I will probably recommend people buy 01:42 what you know if they have an amount of 01:44 money that they're going to buy if they 01:45 say, "Okay, Joel, I'm I'm going to buy 01:46 $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000." I will 01:50 probably recommend they buy the half of 01:52 that they buy immediately and the other 01:55 half the dollar cost average which means 01:58 break it up into some you know however 02:00 much you're going to buy per week and 02:02 just buy that much per week and just put 02:04 it on autopilot and the best platform to 02:06 do that on is River ri I 02:09 v.com River has zero fees on recurring 02:12 purchases after the first week and so 02:14 it's super easy to set it up and just 02:16 buy the same amount every week and 02:19 Again, after the first weekly purchase, 02:20 starting with week two, you don't pay 02:22 any fees on the River P platform to buy 02:25 Bitcoin that way, and you just 02:27 accumulate over time. Um, so, uh, 02:31 between 110,000 and $120,000 per coin, 02:35 that is what I think I will recommend or 02:37 that is what I am tentatively 02:38 recommending. And above $120,000 per 02:42 coin, I will probably recommend people 02:44 mostly dollar cost average. So according 02:46 to James Czech, my favorite check uh 02:49 Bitcoin analyst that goes by uh the the 02:52 name Checkmate, according to his 02:53 analysis, which is all on Substack and 02:56 available uh some of it for free and 02:58 some of it by prescript or subscription. 03:01 Uh according to him, uh we are in the 03:04 fourth quarter of this Bitcoin bull 03:06 market. uh Bitcoin bull markets tend to 03:09 have four-year cycles and um the sort of 03:13 the current cycle started in the fourth 03:15 quarter of 2022 and according to him 03:17 we're sort of in the fourth quarter of 03:19 this Bitcoin bull market and so we will 03:21 see a likely see a significant or at 03:25 least moderate price correction at some 03:27 point maybe it's 6 months maybe it's 12 03:29 months 18 months I don't know somewhere 03:31 along the way we will get some 03:32 meaningful price pullback and I totally 03:35 understand that even if the right thing 03:37 to maximize your long-term gains is to 03:40 just buy as much Bitcoin as you can and 03:41 hold on for as long as possible. That is 03:44 psychologically hard for people to ride 03:46 out a dip. Uh some people capitulate. 03:49 They buy at, let's call it some number 03:51 100 at above $120,000 per coin. Then the 03:54 price dips to 110. They can't take it 03:56 anymore. They sell Bitcoin. So they 03:58 bought it at 150. They're selling at at 04:01 110. None of that makes any sense. It's 04:04 the worst financial decision they could 04:05 ever make because 110 ends up being the 04:08 bottom and then it just marches higher 04:10 and higher into the hundreds of 04:11 thousands of dollars. But every cycle 04:13 people do that and a great way to avoid 04:15 doing that is dollar cost averaging. So 04:18 above $120,000 per coin. I will probably 04:21 recommend people start dollar cost 04:23 averaging by buying the same amount 04:25 every week. That way if the price is 04:27 high, you're buying and let's say you're 04:29 buying $100 a week, you're buying a 04:31 little less Bitcoin. it costs you $100 04:33 regardless, but uh you're buying a 04:35 little less Bitcoin per week when the 04:36 price is high, but then when the price, 04:38 you know, corrects and comes down, 04:40 you're buying more Bitcoin per week 04:42 because your $100 buys more of a Bitcoin 04:45 uh when the price is lower as compared 04:47 to higher. But it's a great way to just 04:49 psychologically 04:50 uh not have to worry about it rather 04:52 than stressing out for months at a time 04:54 about how your Bitcoin investment is 04:56 underwater and then inevitably with time 04:59 it's way above water. But a lot of 05:01 people don't like that emotional uh 05:03 feeling of being underwater. Even if 05:05 long-term it ends up being the best for 05:08 long-term gains. So uh to recap here, I 05:11 below $110,000 per coin. I still my 05:14 instincts say buy as much Bitcoin as you 05:16 can. Lump some just buy it, you know, 05:19 whatever you feel like you can afford 05:20 and hold on to it for as long as 05:22 possible. I think I will recommend 05:24 between 110 and $120,000 per coin that 05:27 people put 50% of whatever they're 05:30 planning to buy in immediately and then 05:32 dollar cost average to the rest. And the 05:34 problem is, you know, dollar cost 05:36 averaging is like over what time period 05:37 is that a month? Is that a, you know, a 05:40 year? Is that 18 months? I don't know. 05:42 That's that's the reason I don't like 05:44 dollar cost averaging is because it 05:45 triggers the question of okay but you 05:47 know even if weekly is the right amount 05:49 is the right time period how long do you 05:51 let it run well if it's the sort of 05:54 thing where you can afford it based on 05:56 your income streams then just let it run 05:57 indefinitely because if that's what you 05:59 can afford just let it run until you 06:01 turn it off and that's by far the 06:03 easiest thing but if somebody has 06:04 $10,000 they want to buy and the price 06:07 is above 110 I I will probably tell them 06:10 look buy 5,000 of it right now. Just buy 06:14 keep it simple. Buy it and you know 06:17 spend the other $5,000 uh you know once 06:20 a week over some time frame that you got 06:22 to decide what that is. I don't know 06:23 which is why I don't like dollar cost 06:24 averaging. But at some point when the 06:26 market is all frothy, especially if 06:28 we're above $150,000 per coin, people 06:31 are going crazy and maybe the long-term 06:33 sustainable demand is not quite there 06:35 yet. I don't want people to just blindly 06:38 be buying huge amounts of Bitcoin above 06:40 $150,000 per coin if they don't have the 06:42 stomach to ride the the ups and downs 06:46 until it's consistently higher. And we 06:48 could go for a period of 6 months or 12 06:50 months or something like that. You know, 06:52 let's say Bitcoin goes up to 100 06:53 somewhere between 168,000 and 06:56 220,000. and then you know someone buys 06:58 way up in the thin air up there and then 07:02 they have to spend 6 or 12 months 07:03 underwater before Bitcoin starts 07:04 marching up into the hundreds of 07:06 thousands of dollars. That's just 07:07 painful. It's uh so I try to avoid uh 07:10 people having to go through that. So 07:12 I'll probably recommend below 110,000 07:15 buy as much as you can lump sum up 07:17 front. between 110,000 and 120,000. Buy 07:21 50% of whatever you're planning to buy 07:23 immediately and buy the remainder over 07:25 some time period just buying the same 07:27 amount every week on River with a 07:30 recurring purchase and above probably, 07:33 you know, $120,000. The easy thing is 07:35 just to tell everybody just dollar cost 07:37 average. Uh but again, the reason I 07:39 don't like dollar cost averaging uh is 07:41 because it makes you determine for what 07:43 time period and especially if you have 07:45 an upfront lump sum amount you want to 07:47 buy, then it's hard to decide how long 07:50 that time period should be because you 07:52 know you want to get it invested in 07:54 Bitcoin sooner rather than later. But uh 07:56 if you're dollar cost averaging, you got 07:57 to decide is that over four weeks, is 07:59 that over 6 months? Is that over a year? 08:01 Is that over 18 months? It's just hard 08:03 to decide which is why I tend to not 08:05 like that approach. Uh but anyway, uh 08:08 just wanted to provide some perspective. 08:10 Right now we are below $110,000 per 08:12 coin. So I think the decision is easy 08:14 which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can 08:16 buy it immediately. Don't think about 08:19 you know don't go through the rigomeroll 08:20 of thinking about dollar cost averaging 08:22 because I think where we are right now 08:25 uh it's better for the long-term uh 08:28 total gains if you just buy whatever you 08:30 can instead of worrying about dollar 08:32 cost averaging and things like that. But 08:33 this is not financial advice. I don't 08:35 know. I've just read a ton about Bitcoin 08:38 and I've been involved 08:40 uh as an owner of Bitcoin for eight 08:42 years now and so I've been through lots 08:43 of ups and downs in the last eight years 08:45 and that just feels like what feels 08:47 right to me based on my historical 08:50 perspective. So I hope that helps. Have 08:52 a great day everyone. Thanks.