Thoughts on $111,000 bitcoin

00:02 Hey everyone, welcome to 00:04 $111,000 Bitcoin. Um, feels great. It 00:08 feels great to uh, you know, after 00:10 slogging through the uh, you know, the 00:12 the the pain of the ups and downs over 00:15 the years and ups and downs and ups and 00:16 downs and ups and downs, finally for bit 00:18 Bitcoin to behave to be behaving exactly 00:21 the way it should be behaving and doing 00:24 exactly what it was designed to do when 00:25 Bitcoin was invented. And that's kind of 00:27 where we are right now. Bitcoin is doing 00:29 exactly what it was intended to do and 00:31 responding to the impacts of the 00:33 marketplace for exactly the right 00:35 reasons. Um, as I covered in a video, 00:38 uh, there was the the US Treasury has 00:41 been having issues selling its debt. 00:43 That continues. The big drop in the 00:46 stock market that happened uh, either 00:48 yes, I think it was yesterday was due to 00:50 another what's called a sort of a failed 00:52 Treasury auction. Didn't doesn't mean it 00:54 failed. It means right at the end they 00:55 had to raise interest rates in order to 00:57 entice enough people to buy the debt. Uh 00:60 which basically means there was less 01:01 appetite. More people were saying, "Why 01:03 would I buy that? You're not going to 01:04 pay it back." Or if you do pay it back, 01:06 you're going to have to print so much 01:07 money that you're going to have to pay 01:09 me a higher interest rate than what you 01:10 want to pay me in order to get me to buy 01:13 this debt. Of course, I think anybody 01:15 that's buying US government debt is 01:16 crazy. But, you know, I don't I don't 01:19 know why you'd ever, you know, lend 01:21 money to a drunken sailor, but here we 01:23 are. Uh, 37 trillion in debt and people 01:26 are still loaning us money that we can 01:28 print out of thin air. It makes no 01:29 sense. Um, but anyway, so after another, 01:32 uh, you know, quasi failed Treasury 01:35 auction earlier this week, uh, Bitcoin 01:38 did exactly what it was designed to do, 01:39 which is it went up, stock market went 01:42 down. uh clearly indicating that people 01:44 are you know understanding as they 01:47 should that Bitcoin is a safe haven in 01:49 an uncertain and chaotic world. Bitcoin 01:52 is a safe place to preserve value for 01:54 the long term because it cannot be 01:56 manipulated by anyone. So the number one 01:59 question I have been getting over the 02:02 last two days one 02:05 second is Joel is it still a good time 02:08 to buy Bitcoin? Well, my answer never 02:10 changes, which is it's never a bad time 02:12 to buy Bitcoin. But I posted this 02:14 morning on Facebook that look, if you 02:16 asked me that question when Bitcoin was 02:18 between 70 and $90,000, I would have 02:20 said buy it, buy it, buy it, buy as much 02:22 as you can. Like, it's down. It's down. 02:24 It's down for no good reason. Buy as 02:26 much as you can. Um, even if you can't 02:28 hold it that long. Like, I still think 02:30 it's a asymmetric bet, meaning the the 02:33 reward significantly outweighs the risk 02:35 at, you know, between 70 and 90,000. 02:38 between 90,000 and $ 110,000. I posted, 02:41 look, between $70,000 and $90,000, it's 02:45 still a good time to buy Bitcoin, but 02:47 you got to be willing to hold it for at 02:48 least a year or two because there's ups 02:50 and downs, and you don't want to be uh 02:52 potentially in a situation where you're 02:54 stuck selling Bitcoin that is down from 02:56 the price you paid for it. And so, 02:58 that's what I posted for between 70, 03:00 sorry, between 90,000 and 110,000. Uh 03:03 what I posted is if it's above 110,000, 03:05 which it is right now at 03:07 111,000, it's still a good time to buy 03:09 Bitcoin, but you need to be able to hold 03:12 it for 3 or 4 years. Now, do I think 03:14 it's going to be down significantly in 03:18 much of the next 3 or 4 years? No. But 03:21 you got to, you know, we're not, we 03:22 don't play risky games where we're like, 03:24 hey, you know, I'm definitely going to 03:26 need this money in a year or two or 03:28 three and, you know, or whatever, a year 03:31 or two. and then you're risking selling 03:33 it when it's a price lower than today, 03:35 which again I don't think is going to 03:36 happen. And if it does happen, I think 03:37 it'll be shortlived, but we just don't 03:39 know the future. So there's no reason 03:40 to, you know, no reason to risk that. 03:43 Okay. Um, so, uh, I also posted this 03:46 morning, some of this I'm just recapping 03:48 so you have it in video form in addition 03:49 to written form in case you prefer 03:51 video. I posted, uh, another way of 03:54 answering the question. So, this way of 03:56 answering the question is, yes, now is 03:58 still a good time to buy Bitcoin. Um, 04:00 it's just, you know, above $110,000. You 04:03 got to understand that your hold, you 04:05 got to be willing to hold it for three 04:06 or four years because, you know, it 04:08 could go up and down in the next one or 04:10 two years and who knows. I think it's 04:12 going to be up, but you know, nobody 04:14 knows. Um, at least nobody knows in the 04:16 near term, even if it's relatively 04:18 certain in the long term. All right. The 04:20 other the other thing I posted is a 04:22 number of people have asked me, they've 04:23 said, "Well, Joel, you know, you know, 04:26 one person posted in response to a 04:28 comment that look, you know, I've been 04:30 trying to free up money from a 401k or 04:32 an IRA or a Roth IRA or whatever it is. 04:35 I've been trying to free up this money 04:36 for more than a month now. Bitcoin was 04:38 in the 80,000s when I tried to free up 04:40 the money. Here it is a month or two 04:42 later. Finally, the money shows up. You 04:45 know, broken loose from the broken 04:46 financial system. and now it's available 04:49 to buy Bitcoin. And here we are at 04:51 $111,000. Do you still buy it? And lots 04:54 of people, I mean, I've probably had 20 04:56 people in the last two days ask me, 04:57 Joel, is it still a good time to buy 04:59 Bitcoin? Is it still a good time to buy 05:00 Bitcoin? So, another way of answering 05:02 that question is yes. So, the first way 05:04 is yes, but you need to be able to hold 05:06 it for three or four years. The another 05:08 way of answering that question is yes, 05:10 because it is your least worst option. 05:12 Here's what I mean by least worst. The 05:15 best time to buy Bitcoin is when it's at 05:17 a multi-year low. It's down and out. 05:19 Nobody's talking about it. Everybody 05:20 assumes Bitcoin is dead. And that's the 05:23 best time to buy Bitcoin. But you only 05:25 get those opportunities, you know, every 05:27 2 or 3 years or every four years really. 05:29 Um, and you can't predict when they're 05:31 going to happen. And you can't predict 05:32 if Bitcoin will ever be lower than 05:34 today's price. It could zoom up to 05:36 220,000 and then drop to 120,000. And 05:39 the lowest it ever goes is 9,000 higher 05:41 than today. So, it's possible that if 05:44 you wait for a multi-year low that the 05:47 lowest low you ever get is a price 05:48 that's higher than today. So, you know, 05:51 there's no way to count on that. But the 05:52 best time is in a multi-year low. You 05:55 know, which basically nobody wants to 05:56 buy Bitcoin when it's in a multi-year 05:58 low cuz, you know, nobody wants to buy 06:00 any financial asset when it's massively 06:02 on sale because they're scared. They're 06:04 afraid it's going to go away. They're 06:05 afraid it's going to die. They're afraid 06:07 it's never coming back. All this sort of 06:08 stuff. But the best time to buy any 06:10 asset is when it's massively on sale. 06:13 Um, the second best time is when it's 06:15 coming off of being massively on sale. 06:17 It's starting to march up, but it's 06:18 still quite low. The third best time is 06:21 when it's headed south, when it's going 06:23 down, when people are worried, they 06:24 don't know where the bottom is. It's in 06:26 a price correction, you know. The fourth 06:28 best time to buy Bitcoin is when it's 06:30 going up off of a price correction. That 06:33 may not be a multi-year low, but it's 06:35 still lower, you know, which leaves the 06:37 fifth best time to buy it is when it's 06:40 rocketing up like the last two days. Uh 06:43 the problem with the that being the 06:45 fifth best time is the worst time is if 06:48 is to not buy it at all. So, if the 06:50 answer was that now is not a good time 06:53 to buy Bitcoin, then you have a problem, 06:56 which is, you know, well, if you don't 06:58 buy it now, then you're in category six, 06:60 which is you're not buying it at all. Uh 07:02 because people, you know, if you don't 07:03 buy it now, what are you going to do? 07:04 You're going to sit on it. Are you going 07:06 to buy it at 120? Are you going to buy 07:07 it at 130, 140? Are you going to buy it 07:11 when it cracks 5%, when it's down 10%, 07:13 what about 15%. Nobody knows. No, nobody 07:16 has any good answers to those questions 07:18 that if you don't buy it now, when are 07:21 you going to buy it? And what everybody 07:23 thinks is, "Oh, I'll buy it when it's 07:25 cheaper." But then they have no idea 07:27 what cheaper means. And then when 07:28 cheaper comes, they freak out because 07:31 it's down for a reason. And they're 07:33 like, "Oh no, maybe it has a problem. 07:35 Maybe something's wrong with Bitcoin. 07:36 Maybe it's down 10% or 20% for a reason. 07:39 Maybe it's going to drop further." So 07:42 there's just no good answer to the 07:44 question of is now a good time to buy 07:47 Bitcoin? The answer is yes. Because 07:50 there's no good answer to the question 07:51 no. Because if you say no, it's not a 07:54 good time to buy Bitcoin, then it begs 07:56 the question, well, when is a good time 07:57 to buy Bitcoin? And the answer is nobody 07:60 knows because you can't time the market. 08:01 And if you can't time the market, then 08:03 it's impossible to know when a good time 08:05 or a bad time is. You just it's just you 08:07 just don't know. Um, so yes, I think 08:10 it's a good time to buy Bitcoin because 08:11 the alternative is to not buy Bitcoin. 08:14 And you don't have the opportunity right 08:17 now to buy it at a multi-year low. It's 08:20 not at a multi-year low. So, that's not 08:21 one of the options. It's not coming off 08:24 of a multi-year low. So, that's not one 08:26 of the options. It's not in a massive 08:28 price or even a moderate price 08:29 correction right now cuz we're at 08:31 all-time highs. So, that's not an 08:32 option. And it's not just recovering 08:35 from a big price correction. I guess you 08:36 could argue it sort of is. You know, 08:38 Bitcoin was down 33%, I don't know, in 08:40 the last month or two or whatever it 08:42 was. So, you could kind of argue that 08:44 we're in category 4, which is recovering 08:46 from a price correction. But again, it's 08:48 not like it's not like today it's 08:49 recovering and it's barely above the 08:51 low. You know, the low the most recent 08:53 low was 74,000 something a month or two 08:56 back. It's not like you're buying it at 08:58 80 or 90 or even 100. We're up here at 09:01 111. So, so the least worst option is to 09:05 buy it because the next option is to not 09:08 buy it. And there's no good option that 09:10 involves buying it at some other time 09:12 because that involves timing in the 09:13 market and we don't know the future. We 09:15 don't know the prices and inevitably 09:18 when it's a good time to buy, you won't 09:19 want to buy because it'll be scary. And 09:22 you know, this is just it is what it is. 09:25 So, if somebody showed up today and gave 09:27 me $10,000 or $100,000 actually, 09:30 interestingly enough, 09:32 um through I won't go into all the 09:35 details, but uh $14,000 is freeing up 09:38 literally today. Literally today, 09:40 someone just called me right before this 09:41 and said, "Hey, we have a refund check 09:44 for, long story, something business 09:46 related. We have a refund check for 09:48 $14,000. What do you want me to do with 09:49 it?" Literally, they called me right 09:51 before this call. And I said, "Go 09:53 deposit it at Trustmark as fast as you 09:56 can so that I can suck it out of there 09:57 as fast as I can and buy Bitcoin." 09:59 Literally, that was the conversation I 10:01 had right before this one was so they 10:04 they got in their car while we were on 10:06 the phone so they could drive to 10:08 Trustmark so they could deposit that uh 10:11 money so that I can suck it into 10:14 Coinbase and buy Bitcoin using Coinbase 10:17 Advanced with the lowest possible fees, 10:19 which is exactly what's going to happen 10:20 the very second I get my hands on that 10:23 money at Trustark. And hopefully they 10:24 won't have a, you know, multi-day hold 10:26 or something like that. I'm hoping they 10:28 don't. Um, so anyway, that's what's 10:30 going to happen. That money is going to 10:31 buy Bitcoin at 10:33 $111,000. I'm going to buy $14,000 of 10:36 Bitcoin because that money became 10:37 available today. And I am going to buy 10:41 Bitcoin literally the moment I can get 10:44 that money out of Trustark and into 10:45 Bitcoin, I will do that. If they put a 10:48 one-day hold on it, it'll be one day. If 10:50 they put a three-day hold on it, it'll 10:51 be 3 days. If they don't let me buy it 10:53 until 7 days, guess what? 7 days from 10:55 now, no matter what the price of Bitcoin 10:57 is, I don't care if it's 120. I don't 10:59 care if it's 130. I don't care if it's 11:00 back down to 95, whenever I can get that 11:03 money out of Trust Mark, it will 11:05 immediately, that $14,000 will 11:07 immediately be used to buy Bitcoin at 11:10 any price. Like, doesn't matter what the 11:12 price is, I'm just going to hit buy 11:13 Bitcoin. I forgot I had a good example. 11:15 I didn't have a good example until, you 11:17 know, 30 minutes ago, but now I have a 11:19 good example. So, what would I do if 11:20 $14,000 dropped out of the sky like it 11:23 did, you know, 30 minutes ago? I mean, I 11:26 guess I knew it was coming cuz I I knew 11:28 I was going to get this refund at some 11:29 point. I just had no idea when. It could 11:31 have been any time in the last 2 months. 11:33 Yeah, it would have been nice a month 11:35 ago when Bitcoin was in the 80,000s. But 11:37 guess what? The refund didn't show up a 11:39 month ago when it was in the 80,000s. It 11:42 showed up today at $111,000. So guess 11:44 what? I buy Bitcoin at 11:47 $111,000 because there is no good 11:49 option. There is no other good option 11:52 other than to buy Bitcoin today. Even 11:55 with dollar cost averaging, which is 11:57 buying the same amount of Bitcoin every 11:59 day, sorry, every week, typically it's 12:01 done weekly. Even if somebody said, 12:02 "Hey, dollar cost average that $14,000." 12:06 My question is, okay, how I am I doing 12:08 a,000 a week over 14 weeks? Am I doing 12:11 7,000 a week over two weeks? Am I doing 12:14 500 a week over 14 weeks? Like the 12:19 problem is how am I dollar cost 12:21 averaging that? When am how long am I 12:23 dollar cost averaging? Nobody knows. 12:25 Nobody has an answer to that question. 12:27 That's why I just buy Bitcoin. It's the 12:29 only thing that seems to really work. 12:30 Um, so anyway, uh, that so I'm gonna buy 12:34 $111,000 Bitcoin as soon as Trustark 12:36 will let me or whatever the price 12:38 happens to be as soon as Trustark uh 12:40 gives me access to my very to my own 12:42 money, which obviously they they always 12:44 put holds on checks and stuff like that. 12:46 Um, anyway, so uh let's see what else. 12:49 Um, so the US government has serious 12:53 problems right now because people are 12:55 not flocking to the US Treasury bills, 12:58 US government debt as a safe haven. They 13:00 are flocking instead to gold and 13:02 Bitcoin. Bitcoin is way better than 13:04 gold. Uh, I think most of the runup that 13:07 gold is going to have already happened 13:09 with gold at 3,300 an ounce or whatever 13:12 it's at. Uh I think the vast majority of 13:14 the obviously upside of bit excuse me of 13:18 Bitcoin is ahead of it. So at some point 13:20 we will get a significant Bitcoin 13:23 repricing. So what do I mean repricing? 13:25 At some point Bitcoin will very rapidly 13:28 go from whatever price it's at to a new 13:32 price. Um a new price that reflects the 13:35 fact that the world has woken up and 13:37 understands Bitcoin's value. Now, if 13:40 somebody said, "Hey, what what does that 13:42 maybe look like?" It probably looks like 13:44 Bitcoin going from 110,000 to 170,000 or 13:49 220,000 or I don't know, 168,000, maybe 13:53 150,000. I don't know, somewhere between 13:56 150,000 and 220,000 like really fast. 13:59 Now, is that tomorrow? Is that 5 days 14:01 from now? Is that 5 months from now? 14:04 Does it take 5 years? Nobody knows. 14:06 Literally nobody knows. Um but all I 14:09 know is at some point just like the 14:12 world recognized over the last 2 days 14:14 that wow US failed US government 14:17 treasury auction failed again in 14:19 relative terms. I'm not saying nobody 14:21 bought the debt. I'm just saying the 14:22 government was not able to sell the debt 14:24 they wanted to sell at the interest rate 14:26 and it uh they wanted to sell it at and 14:28 everybody freaked out because it was 14:29 like wow nobody's buying this or people 14:32 are not buying this with the same 14:33 appetite they had before. Um, so at some 14:36 point there will be things that really 14:38 throw the whole system for a loop and 14:40 that will result in a significant 14:41 repricing event. Meaning just like gold 14:44 very quickly went from 2500 uh uh dollar 14:48 an ounce to $3,300 an ounce, an $800 14:52 price move in the price of gold. Or 14:54 maybe it was even more than that. I 14:55 think it was like, you know, 2,300 up to 14:58 3,300. $1,000 price move in the price of 15:01 gold which is represented I don't know 15:03 five or eight trillion dollar in the 15:05 price of gold. It was some ridiculously 15:07 large large uh amount and that happened 15:09 relatively quickly. I mean relatively 15:11 quickly. So I think the same is in store 15:13 for Bitcoin that we're going to get a 15:14 pretty significant repricing where 15:16 people just recategorized Bitcoin in 15:19 there as hey this is not a sort of a 15:22 risky niche asset. This is a major world 15:25 currency and a major digital asset and a 15:28 digital store of value and as soon as 15:31 that is reflected um you know as soon as 15:34 that is understood by the market place 15:36 there will be a you know significant 15:38 repricing event. So all that really 15:39 matters in my opinion is well how much 15:41 bitcoin do you own before that happens. 15:43 Uh just like I spent all last year 15:45 asking people, hey, at some point 15:47 Bitcoin is going to break out of this 15:48 range from 55,000 to 70,000. And the 15:51 question I was always asking people is, 15:53 how much Bitcoin are you going to own 15:56 when we officially leave the 55,000 to 15:59 $70,000 price range behind? Now, we 16:02 stayed in that range 55,000 to 70,000 16:05 almost the entirety of 7 and a half 16:07 months, 7.5 months. From the middle of 16:10 March to the end of October last year, 16:13 Bitcoin was almost entirely between 16:16 55,000 and 70,000. And the question I 16:19 was always asking people is, hey, at 16:21 some point we're going to sort of repric 16:23 into the six figures. Um, how much 16:26 Bitcoin are you going to own when that 16:27 happens? Well, here we are. We have 16:29 repriced into the six figures. Now the 16:31 question is when do we repric in the you 16:34 know hundreds of thousands of dollars in 16:37 instead of just above 16:40 $100,000. So at what price at what point 16:43 does Bitcoin become a $2 to $300,000 16:46 asset instead of a $100,000 per coin 16:50 asset? Um that's going to happen at some 16:52 point. I just I can't tell you if it's 16:54 the next week or two, the next year or 16:56 two. I don't know. I don't think it's 16:58 going to take more than 5 years, but 17:00 literally nobody knows. The question is, 17:02 how much Bitcoin are you going to own 17:03 when that happens? That's that's the 17:06 question. So, um, hopefully this is 17:09 helpful. I know for those of you who do 17:10 not have 100% of your liquid assets in 17:13 Bitcoin like I do, I know it's stressful 17:15 because you're asking yourself, should I 17:17 put more in and wow, it's so expensive. 17:19 And Joel's telling me that there's four 17:22 better times to invest in Bitcoin than 17:24 when it's on a rocket ride up. But that 17:27 number five, which is where we are on a 17:29 rocket ride up, is still better than not 17:31 investing in Bitcoin. So, I understand 17:34 it's it's hard. But guess what? I mean, 17:37 this journey is hard. It's just hard. If 17:39 it was easy, everybody in the world 17:41 would have adopted Bitcoin. It's hard 17:43 because it's hard to understand Bitcoin 17:45 and the vast majority of the world does 17:47 not understand Bitcoin. It's hard to 17:50 invest in a volatile asset that goes up 17:53 and down on its way up because it means 17:55 you got to hold it when it's down. And 17:58 that's hard. So, there's a lot of hard 17:60 things about Bitcoin and one of them is 18:02 Bitcoin at 18:04 $111,000 and you trying to decide, do 18:06 you invest more in Bitcoin? It's your 18:08 money. I'm not a financial adviser, not 18:10 a legal adviser, not a tax adviser, not 18:12 an accounting adviser. I am not sort any 18:15 sort of professional adviser. Everything 18:17 I share is just my random opin opinion 18:20 for your uh amusement and otherwise 18:23 value. That's it. So, if it were me, and 18:26 it is me because I just got $14,000 18:29 freed up all of 30 minutes ago, then 18:31 what do I do? I buy 18:33 Bitcoin. What did I do back when I felt 18:35 the exact same way when Bitcoin was 18:37 rocketing past $11,000 instead of 1 thou 18:42 111,000? What did I do at $11,000? I 18:45 bought Bitcoin. What did I do when 18:46 Bitcoin was setting all-time highs back 18:49 in 2021? I bought Bitcoin. What was I 18:52 doing when it was at the depths of the 18:54 bare market in 2022? I was buying 18:56 Bitcoin. And what did I do when it was 18:58 setting records in 2024 when it crossed 19:01 24,000 or sorry, $74,000 for the first 19:04 time in 2024? I was also buying Bitcoin. 19:07 I was buying it all the time with as 19:10 much assets as I can break loose. And so 19:13 I've bought every top, I've bought every 19:15 bottom, I've bought everything in 19:17 between because over time my comfort 19:20 level with Bitcoin has gotten higher and 19:21 higher and higher and eventually it got 19:23 high enough that I decided the 19:26 appropriate allocation for me was 100% 19:29 of my liquid assets. Now Rachel manages 19:32 our an emergency fund that I do not have 19:34 legal access to on purpose because I 19:37 have a very high risk tolerance. So when 19:39 I say 100% that is only of the assets th 19:42 that I own or control of our assets 19:45 which is you know the lion's share. It 19:47 is the vast majority of those assets but 19:49 it's not all of them because I do not 19:50 count the assets that are exclusively 19:52 under Rachel's control because uh 19:55 they're not mine and I have no legal 19:56 right over them on purpose. That way our 19:59 family is still going to be able to buy 20:00 groceries even if I'm wrong about all 20:02 this. Uh, but the assets I possibly 20:04 could invest in Bitcoin are 100% 20:07 invested in Bitcoin. And they were this 20:10 morning 100% invested in Bitcoin. As of 20:12 30 minutes ago, I found out there's 20:14 $14,000 that's not in Bitcoin that just 20:16 showed up. So, guess what? I'm just 20:18 above I'm just below 100% invested 20:20 because that $14,000 showed up. So, 20:23 tomorrow, if Trust Mark will let me, I 20:25 will be back to 100% fully invested in 20:28 Bitcoin with some $111,000 Bitcoin uh to 20:32 get that $14,000 out of US dollars. So, 20:35 hopefully all this is helpful. Hit me 20:37 with any questions. I love doing videos. 20:39 I love being your local Bitcoin sherpa 20:42 and trying to help you as much as I can. 20:44 And I understand this journey is hard. 20:46 Uh things that are worth doing are hard 20:49 and uh but it's worth it. It's worth it 20:51 in the long run. Have a great day 20:52 everyone. Thanks