What a Bitcoin crash or shooting for the moon looks/feels like over the next 12 mo. + probabilities

hey everyone I am going to try to answer for you exactly what a Bitcoin prolonged bare market meaning a down market looks like or feels like over the next 12 months and conversely what a Bitcoin uh bull market fits uh feels like and then the probabilities of each uh I'll cut to the chase here and say I think the probability of a bull market is about 70% it the probability of a bare market that starts in the near future is about 30% um or lower i I'd probably put the probability of a bull market meaning an up market a uh opportunist uh optimistic market up higher than 70% and the probability of a bare market lower than 30% but I'll just stick with you know 7030 for now okay so what does that look like well let's go with the bull scenario first actually let's go with the bull scenario first because I I don't want you to be all bummed out when I talk about the bear scenario so in a bull scenario what happens is we chill out here at about $105,000 a little up a little down you know we went down to $102,000 when Elon Musk and Donald Trump were spatting yesterday but then it like bounced right back to 105 here we are at 105 so what a bull market looks like is eventually a catalyst hits something lights the uh the bonfire or the I should say the wildfire of demand it could be a nation state adop you know announcing that they're adopting Bitcoin uh as a Treasury reserve asset it could be the major company announcing that they have Bitcoin on their balance sheet it just I mean it could be just the fact that everybody who wants to sell Bitcoin at $105,000 the Bitcoin that's available for sale at that price just sells out and everybody who has held Bitcoin for forever and you know wanted to buy a new Tesla although I financed mine so I'm not I'm not causing price pressure but you know there's people who have wanted to do things with Bitcoin that they've sat on for 10 or 15 years and you know $100,000 was a magic number for a lot of them and some of them are selling so it could just be that the Bitcoin for sale in the you know low 100,000s just runs out and then the price starts to climb and I'm going to walk you through what that euphoria feels like so the price starts to climb and it goes up and then it pulls back and everybody's sort of freaked out but then it seems to start climbing again and then it climbs again and pretty soon people are getting euphoric and so everybody's talking about it and we go from completely asleep at the switch right now where like nobody's paying attention to Bitcoin like nobody's talking about Bitcoin bitcoin's not exciting because it's been hanging around $100,000 for so long that everybody's you know gotten bored and moved on to suddenly it's it's the buzz it's on MSNBC everybody's talking about it or CNBC whatever the finance channel is uh anyway uh so suddenly everybody's talking about it and it's just a big deal and the price just climbs and climbs and climbs and it hits something between 180 somewhere above $150,000 per coin maybe up at $180,000 per coin maybe $220,000 per coin but it climbs up there between now and late October or early November uh the reason I say late October and early or early November is because historically in the year after the 4-year having cycle which happens in presidential years that's always been where the peak is so in 2013 2017 and 2021 the top of the bull market which is the up market was in late October or early November of the year following the presidential election so three in a row it could be four in a row if it is that all would take place over the next 5 months or so uh and the the price would top out at somewhere between 150,000 and $220,000 I'm guessing but it's all euphoric and the only way you can really screw that up is if you keep you know your conviction only grows with price and so you keep dumping more money in the higher and higher it gets till finally you dump the absolute most you can possibly afford in right at the very tippy top which again in the long term as long as you can hold on to it for 3 or 4 years it doesn't matter cuz it'll be up anyway but a lot of people can't and so then they invest at the tippy top and then they capitulate at the bottom which is the exact opposite of what you you know would normally want to do um so anyway that's what the bull market feels like it's euphoric it's fun everybody feels rich you know everybody thinks they're a genius um and again the only way to screw that up is to dump all your money in at the very tip top and you know the smart thing to do is you know if you want to invest let's say above above 200 120,000 a coin i recommend dollar cost averaging which is just buying the exact same amount of Bitcoin every week for as long as you can do it maybe it's a hundred bucks maybe it's a thousand bucks maybe it's 10 bucks but you just buy the same amount of Bitcoin every single week and you just do that as long as possible um so in a bull market obviously it makes sense to hold the Bitcoin right now to hold it as long as conceivably possible and basically even if you need money in the near term it even makes sense to keep that in the form of Bitcoin because it's it's rising so fast that you're effectively just riding this massive wave wave of adoption and massive waves wave of demand and it's really fun and those don't happen very often and Bitcoiners love that because most of the gains in a in the market come during relatively short periods of time so that's what the up market feels like and obviously in an up market everyone loves it and it's fantastic unless people you know sell their Bitcoin and then miss out or unless they buy the Bitcoin only at peak euphoria and don't have the patience to just wait as long as you can wait it's fine it'll be back up at those prices again you just might have to wait a couple years all right so what does a bare market feel like a bare market sucks bare markets have followed the bold markets um every time now the bare markets end up bottoming out at much higher levels each time so the very first sort of bare market Bitcoin bottomed out at $2 uh and it rose up to $32 and then it went down to $2 uh and then the next you know price cycle it went up to uh $1,200 and bottomed at $92 I think yeah $92 so again it went from bottoming at $2 to bottoming at $92 then it ran up to oh what was it $19,000 and bottomed at $3,200 then it ran up to $69,000 and bottomed at 15,500 i know that's way too many numbers to keep in your head so I'll give you just the bottom numbers the lowest price it ever got was $2 and then the next cycle the lowest it ever got was $92 which is 46 times as much and then the next cycle the lowest it got was $3,200 which is way more than $92 and the next time the lowest it got was $15,500 which again is way more than $3,200 and I anticipate that the lowest Bitcoin will go in the next big major price correction which the the biggest price correction we've had this year was 33% which was down to about $75,000 down from uh $19 I think it was from like 109 down to 75 whatever it was it was 33% and the biggest price correction last year was from $74,000 down to 50,000 for like a very brief moment uh so almost a 33% price correction as well uh but a bare market the price corrections can be bigger than that especially if they're uh they come after a big bull market so if the price runs up to let's use round numbers $200,000 per coin it absolutely could price correct very temporarily by 50% down to 100,000 a coin which is lower than today's price but it might only be there for a matter of hours or days and if you're thinking well I'll just wait and buy it cheap later well the problem is nobody especially you has any idea how low that price bottom is going to be nobody knows and because nobody knows if you wait to buy Bitcoin in the next price downturn not a soul on the planet can tell you when when the price is going to bottom and what the bottom is you just don't know and there's no way to know and for all you know you're going to plan on buying it at 100,000 a coin in the next big price correction and the lowest it'll ever go is 110 and you will have waited for years with no Bitcoin waiting for a price that will never come and that happens to a lot of people it's a very common occurrence um so uh with that being said uh the bare markets suck they typically last about 12 months to get from the peak to the trough so if we start grinding down in the near term and it sucks and it the price just you know absolutely is the worst and it's going down and all that sort of stuff um and what that looks like is you hit a peak maybe it's $112,000 from you know last week or whenever it was the week before last I can't remember maybe it's 112 and we just grind down from here if so I don't think we're in for a massive mega correction because we haven't you know we haven't had a massive mega bull market and typically the the price correction is a function of how high the runup was so for example if somebody said "Hey news flash bitcoin is going to run up to $500,000 in the next 12 months." I would say "Oh well you're going to get a massive mega price correction of like 70% after that." Because an asset just can't go from $105,000 to $500,000 in 6 or 12 months without being followed by a massive price correction that's just an asset as big as Bitcoin you just can't the world cannot adopt the technology that fast um which means it's the price is going to get ahead of itself and then it's going to go through a correction where the price gets more you know along the the line of adoption ultimately the Bitcoin price has to reflect adoption worldwide now total adoption worldwide is like 3% or at most 5% and it's a tiny percent of the world but you just can't in 12 months you can't go from 5% of the world adopting a technology to 50% of the world adopting a technology it just doesn't happen that fast humans are incapable of adopting technologies that fast which means that the price goes up 5x in 5 months you know that price is not tied to technological adoption because you humans just cannot adopt technology that fast humans are riskaverse humans are you know people that's just not the way people operate so if you get a huge price run like that you know you're going to get a correction because it's just there's no possible way that that's sustainable at that level um so anyway uh it so but the price corrections historically have lasted about 12 months so once the price starts grinding down whether it's grinding down from 112,000 a week or two back and we're stuck grinding down for the next 12 months or whether it's grinding down from $200,000 you know 6 or 12 months from now and then we grind down for an entire uh entire 12 months who knows nobody knows um but that process is brutal it's interspersed with uh you know the the price rising and everybody getting all hopeful that maybe the downturn is over and then the you know the the price downturn continues and everybody gets all demoralized again and the reason that you always hit a bottom and then start climbing again is because Bitcoin is amazing it's an incredible technology that lets you transfer value and store value to anyone anywhere in the world in seconds instantly it's just an amazing technology and it is so valuable as an amazing technology that people want to buy it and they will always want to buy it and so just like in 2022 when the price ground down from November of 2021 to November of 2022 which was the last really big bare market when the price was just grinding down and grinding down and then it would recover a little bit then it would grind down some more everybody thought it had gotten as low as it could be and then Terala Luna and Celsius and Voyager all blew up and Three Arrows Capital blew up and the price price went down some more and then everybody thought it had gotten as low as it as it could go and then the price grinds down some more and then FTX blows up sam Bankman Freed turns out that he's scamming everybody and so it blows up and the price even goes down more and everybody's like "How on earth can bad things keep happening how can the price just keep going down because stupid people are blowing companies up and somehow Bitcoin is in the blast radius even though none of it had anything to do with Bitcoin it was all just bad business decisions and you know stupid strategies and outright fraud in the case of you know FTX and um Celsius and a lot of others it was just straight up fraud ponzi schemes and all sorts of crazy stuff people were running none of it had anything to do with Bitcoin most of it was with you know random stupid cryptos and the stuff that did involve Bitcoin had nothing to do with Bitcoin itself it had to do with people scamming customers that just happened to be using Bitcoin as the medium of the scam but they could have just as easily been using something else um so but anyway those those bare markets are brutal and ultimately they end with the final capitulation typically of everybody who bought at the when the price was super high finally capitulates when the price is super low and they capitulate by selling their bitcoin to people like me who understand how valuable bitcoin is and if you understand how bitcoin is valuable bitcoin is then you are buying all the way down um so that's what I did I you know after Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 once it dropped into the $50,000 I bought some more Bitcoin because the Bitcoin I owned at that time was a relatively small amount that I purchased in 2017 and 2018 and so once I saw Bitcoin rise to $69,000 I did not buy any more on the way up because it just kept getting more and more expensive and I thought I just didn't have time to figure out what Bitcoin was doing and make sense of it all until later and so I I was not buying on the way up i was basically holding the Bitcoin I had bought in 2017 and 2018 but when the price started coming down in 2022 I started buying more in the 50,000s and then the price dropped into the 40,000s and I thought okay I'll buy some more in the 40,000s this might be the bottom and then the largest single purchase I made of Bitcoin that I ever bought the largest single purchase at one time um was when Bitcoin was $39,000 per coin and of course I thought that was as low as it was going to go uh or I didn't know but I thought it was you know a good price but ultimately Bitcoin went lower into the 30s and then into the 20s and as it went into the 20,000s I bought even more Bitcoin and finally it went below 20,000 and I bought even more Bitcoin and I was buying it all the way down like the cheaper it got and the longer it stayed down there and the more time I had to read books study Bitcoin and build my conviction the more I would buy Bitcoin and and the percentage of my net worth that was allocated to Bitcoin went from maybe 10% to you know coming off of 2017 and 2018 I'm just guessing it was five 5% 10% it was a low number um and I ratcheted up to 20% and then to 30% and then to 40% and then to 50% and then to 60% and finally I got up into uh by the end of that bare market once it had recovered uh I bought all the way down but then I also was buying uh on its way up as well because at that point my conviction on Bitcoin was so high that I was willing to buy on the way down and the way up uh so I was buying when it Bitcoin went back into the 20,000s and into the 30,000s and into the 40,000s and I posted a lot of videos where I was buying Bitcoin in the 50,000s so 60,000 70,000s 80,000 90,000s and 100,000s including my most recent significant purchase which was $109,000 Bitcoin i bought $14,000 worth of $109,000 Bitcoin and my most recent paycheck where I bought $4,000 of uh $109,000 Bitcoin so I've got major Bitcoin purchases at 109,000 and at 111,000 I think off the top of my head anyway short take is there's never a bad time to buy Bitcoin as long as you have the patience as long as you have the patience and you can wait and you're not going to freak out when the price goes down so I think 70% chance that very exciting times are ahead or let's say more than 70% chance that very exciting times are ahead less than 30% chance that a brutal bare market is ahead of us because the world is just not quite ready for for full Bitcoin adoption which is fine that doesn't mean it won't happen i think it will happen i think it's inevitable but humans are slow to adopt things they just are everybody forgets that Facebook is more than 20 years old everybody forgets that Microsoft is more than 40 years old like it just takes time for humans to do to adopt things and I think the world is ready for Bitcoin i think that we're about to see a major wave of Bitcoin adoption uh and I think that's all headed our way and I think that would result in a very exciting period for the next 6 months at least maybe 5 months whatever it is uh but I also acknowledge that hey the world moves slowly adoption of all technologies moves slowly and maybe the world just doesn't quite have the demand right now to sustain the price above $100,000 and we're going to have to see a price correction before the demand is is there to sustain the price above $100,000 for the long term i don't know again I get that probability scenario a less than 30% chance i like the chances a lot better above a 70% chances that we have an exciting uh bull up market ahead of us uh but again we just don't know we don't know which comes first so I will do a separate video about why one would be more likely to happen than the other uh and I'll try to do that video next thanks everyone